NBA DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 11/10/22
There’s only four games on today’s main slate and with Dallas, Charlotte, Atlanta, New Orleans, and Portland on back-to-backs, we’ll get their official injury reports later today.
This is a daily weekday NBA article that can hopefully show you some lineup building tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS NBA, such as tracking injury news right up to lock and swapping in top value plays if a questionable player gets ruled, knowing which teams are on a back-to-back and not fully rested, and adjusting to daily positional matchups and team pace matchups to always be targeting the players and teams with the highest daily upside. I will be focusing on the “main slate” each weekday, but you can still find plenty of analysis for any other slates including weekends on RG, and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies/tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
NBA DFS Injury Roundup
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day, it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games, I’m looking for big minutes, high usage, and fast-paced games with bad defenses. So knowing who is dealing with any kind of injury and might not get 30+ minutes is critical as well as how a regular starter being out will affect other players’ usage rates and if their replacement starter is worth using.
Looking at The Situation Room we can see who is definitely out, likely out, and questionable for today’s main slate and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.
- Jusuf Nurkic and Jerami Grant both sat yesterday and although they were listed as adductor and ankle injuries respectively it was likely just rest on the front end of the back-to-back today as they were initially listed as probable. If for some reason either of them are out today look for Drew Eubanks to start (for Nurkic) and be a top value play and Justise Winslow (if Grant out) to start and be a decent cheap option.
- Tyler Herro is questionable with an ankle sprain and if out Max Strus would likely start again while Lowry, Butler, and Adebayo would get usage bumps. Caleb Martin is also questionable for the Heat and if out we’d see minutes bumps for Strus and Robinson and Highsmith could enter the rotation.
- PJ Tucker is questionable with a hip contusion and if out we’d likely see Niang or Thybulle draw the start while House would also help absorb most of Tucker’s minutes with those two.
- Larry Nance is questionable after missing yesterday’s game with a hyperextended knee and if he remains out Hernangomez would remain in the rotation and Marshall would absorb a lot of Nance’s time.
If you want to see how someone out will affect the rest of the team check out the Court IQ Tool where you can see what players’ usage rates and FPPM (fantasy points per minute) are for any team with certain teammates on or off the floor.
NBA Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Games to Target
Let’s take a look at NBA Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes as well as which teams or games I’m looking to target. This page is my favorite tool for NBA DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the day. Make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.
- Damian Lillard will sit for rest today so Anfernee Simons slides to PG and is a top play while all the other starters get usage bumps.
- Kristaps Porzingis is out with a groin strain so Kyle Kuzma is a top play of the slate having to carry most of the offense while Hachimura, Gill and Gafford will get nice bumps in minutes as well covering the C spot. Bradley Beal remains out so Kispert should continue to start while Kuzma has a massive ceiling with Porzingis also out.
- Christian Wood is still out for Dallas so Maxi Kleber will see a boost in minutes (33 yesterday).
- With Ball, Hayward, and Martin out for Charlotte they should have their usual rotation of late and Philly should be the same as last game with Harden out and Embiid in, with the only difference being Danuel House back in the rotation.
- POR/NOP is my favorite game to target sitting at the highest total of the slate with high upside plays on both teams. If Herro and Martin end up out for Miami they would be one of my favorite teams to target as well.
NBA DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and top games to target, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel:
- Herb Jones ($5,000) started the year slow with three games under 19 FP followed by four games missed due to injury and then a 15 FP game in his first game back from injury. Since then he’s averaged just under 34 FPPG and tonight he draws a nice matchup with Portland and is my favorite p/$ option from the Pelicans.
- DeAnthony Melton ($5,600) and DeAndre Hunter ($4,800) are two of my favorite value options that should help you fit in Embiid and/or Doncic but if you want to go cheaper at C then I’d consider Clint Capela ($5,800) who comes with volatility but does have mega upside as shown by his 59 and 44 FP games in two of this last three.
- Another solid value option today is Kelly Oubre ($5,700) who can fill up the stat sheet in a variety of ways as shown by his 32 FP game yesterday even while going just 1 for 11 from three so if his 3-point shot starts falling more he has easy 40+ FP upside.
- Mason Plumlee ($5,300), Monte Morris ($5,700), Max Strus ($4,900), and Gabe Vincent ($4,000) are some other cheap guys I like today.
Looking at DraftKings:
- DK is pretty similar to FD as far as value plays I like with Herb Jones ($4,800) still my favorite p/$ cheap play.
- Hunter ($4,900), Melton ($6,000), and Oubre ($6,400) are all in play still and at C I kind of like going with both Clint Capela ($5,900) and Mason Plumlee ($5,000) if you don’t end up with Embiid.
- Dennis Smith ($6,100) and PJ Washington ($5,800) come at nice discounts compared to FD and are in play for me on DK while Maxi Kleper ($3,400) could be the key to fitting in multiple high-priced studs as he’s almost minimum price and should see 30+ minutes with Wood out.
Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the day, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or less minutes or usage.
NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to follow the RotoGrinders NBA twitter feed, read our NBA DFS Alerts page, and watch NBA Crunch Time.
Good luck today!
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