NBA DFS Projections Preview: November 13
Small four game slate today with the Knicks, Wizards and Bulls on back-to-backs, so we’ll get their first injury reports later in the day. What stands out is that the first three games all have the home team favored by 9+ points, and all four games have totals below 231. This means there’s a decent chance for at least one blowout, so you might be more inclined to take some chances on top bench guys in the early three games that may get extra run in garbage time, like Bilal Coulibaly coming off a 40+ FP game yesterday or Immanuel Quickley coming off a 35+ FP game. The CLE/SAC game is definitely the most stackable, with just a one point spread, and DeAaron Fox has been upgraded from doubtful to questionable.
Let’s check out all the news and lineup notes before some DFS picks!
This is a daily weekday NBA article that can hopefully show you some lineup-building tools on RotoGrinders, as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS NBA, such as tracking injury news right up to lock and swapping in top value plays if a questionable player gets ruled out, knowing which teams are on a back-to-back and not fully rested, and adjusting to daily positional matchups and team pace matchups to always be targeting the players and teams with the highest daily upside. I will be focusing on the “main slate” each weekday, but you can still find plenty of analysis for any other slates, including weekends, on RotoGrinders.
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
NBA DFS Injury Roundup
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day, it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor throughout the day and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games, I’m looking for big minutes, high usage, and fast-paced games with bad defenses. So knowing who is dealing with any kind of injury and might not get 30+ minutes is critical, as well as how a regular starter being out will affect other players’ usage rates and if their replacement starter is worth using.
Looking at The Situation Room, we can see who is definitely out, likely out, and questionable for the upcoming slate and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.
- DeAaron Fox has a real shot of returning tonight after a mid-day upgrade from doubtful to questionable, as he was a full participant in practice and shootaround this afternoon. If active I’d be much less inclined to play either Huerter or Monk, and both Ellis and Mitchell would be totally off my radar.
- Gary Trent is questionable with plantar fasciitis that kept him out last game, and if he remains out, we’d see more run for Flynn and Dick as the top bench guards. OG Anunoby was added as questionable with a finger laceration around 11:15 AM ET, so the regular starters could be looking at a nice usage bump if out, and either Flynn or Dick could start if Trent isn’t available to start for OG.
- Sam Merrill is questionable with an illness that’s kept him out multiple games, but his status isn’t very relevant besides giving a few extra minutes to the other guards/wings if out.
If you want to see how someone out will affect the rest of the team, check out the CourtIQ tool, where you can see what players’ usage rates and FPPM (fantasy points per minute) rates are for any player with certain teammates on or off the floor.
NBA Projected Lineups – Notes & Analysis
Let’s take a look at NBA Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes. This page is my favorite tool for NBA DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the day, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.
- Caruso is doubtful with his toe injury that kept him out yesterday, so Dosunmu will get a boost in minutes, and White is a safer DFS target.
- Okoro and Jerome remain out for Cleveland, so LeVert should continue to see 30+ minutes off the bench, and all the guards/wings will keep their slightly increased minutes and usage rates.
- Crowder is out with a groin strain, so Portis, Connaughton, and Beauchamp will pick up his minutes. Lillard is probable with his calf injury and should return after missing two games.
- Wright remains out for Washington, so all of Coulibaly, Kispert, and Shamet will continue to benefit. Gallinari is also out for rest, so there’s more minutes available for all the forwards.
- Fox has been added to the projected lineup as he’s expected to return either tonight or Wednesday. His return would hurt the usage rates of all the other starters.
NBA FanDuel & DraftKings Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and top games to target, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel:
- Pascal Siakam ($7,700) is who I’m starting cash games with, as his price dropped $200 from last game, the Raptors have the highest team total of the slate, and he draws one of the best matchups in basketball with Washington. If this game stays relatively close going into the 4th quarter, we can count on 35+ minutes from Siakam, and even if it’s a blowout, I think he goes for 40+ FP in three quarters.
- On the other side of that game, I’m looking at Deni Avdija ($5,900) as a top mid-range cash game target, coming off a 36.3 FP game in 37 minutes, which was 7 minutes higher than any game this year. With Gallinari out tonight and Wright still out with his knee injury, Avdija is looking at 30+ minutes at a great price. Bilal Coulibaly ($4,000) is also in play if you need an extreme salary saver at SF.
- I’m considering Darius Garland ($7,600) a value today, as he’s going to easily be an $8k+ player for most of the year once his salary recalibrates from his injury return, which is going to happen very soon after he went for 43.2 FP last game. He draws a nice matchup today against the Kings in what should be the most competitive game of the slate, and I’d expect him to continue to see 35+ minutes, especially with Okoro and Jerome still out.
Looking at DraftKings:
- Darius Garland ($7,200) is even cheaper here and is a cash game lock for me, along with Siakam ($8,000) who remains too cheap given the matchup today. Avdija ($6,300) is a bit pricier than I’d hoped for but remains in cash game consideration, especially with Gallinari out, and Coulibaly ($3,900) is a great extreme salary saver with a big minutes projection.
- I also want to mention Coby White ($5,400) as a top cash game option, especially with Caruso likely out again with his toe injury. White has gone for 31+ FP in three straight and can fill up the stat sheet in a variety of ways, so keep taking advantage of his cheap price that is sure to go up to around $6k if he has another strong game today.
Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the day, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or less minutes or usage.
NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
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Good luck today!