NBA DFS Projections Preview: November 16
There are just two games today, and no one is on a back-to-back, so we have all the injury reports, which include no questionable players!
Let’s check out any news and notes before some DFS picks!
This is a daily weekday NBA article that can hopefully show you some lineup-building tools on RotoGrinders, as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS NBA, such as tracking injury news right up to lock and swapping in top value plays if a questionable player gets ruled out, knowing which teams are on a back-to-back and not fully rested, and adjusting to daily positional matchups and team pace matchups to always be targeting the players and teams with the highest daily upside. I will be focusing on the “main slate” each weekday, but you can still find plenty of analysis for any other slates, including weekends, on RotoGrinders.
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
NBA DFS Injury Roundup
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day, it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor throughout the day and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games, I’m looking for big minutes, high usage, and fast-paced games with bad defenses. So knowing who is dealing with any kind of injury and might not get 30+ minutes is critical, as well as how a regular starter being out will affect other players’ usage rates and if their replacement starter is worth using.
Looking at The Situation Room, we can see who is definitely out, likely out, and questionable for the upcoming slate and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.
- I’ll update here if anything pops up during the day, but for now there are no questionable or even doubtful tags to worry about!
If you want to see how someone out will affect the rest of the team, check out the CourtIQ tool, where you can see what players’ usage rates and FPPM (fantasy points per minute) rates are for any player with certain teammates on or off the floor.
NBA Projected Lineups – Notes & Analysis
Let’s take a look at NBA Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes. This page is my favorite tool for NBA DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the day, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.
- The Nets remain without Thomas and Simmons, so Finney-Smith should continue to start, and we should see a similar 9-man rotation as last game.
- The Heat are still without Herro, so Duncan Robinson should continue to start. They will get back Caleb Martin to help at SG/SF.
- Curry is out again for the Warriors, so look for Chris Paul to start and Brandin Podziemski to have a sizeable role again after playing 38 minutes last game. Draymond has been suspended for 5 games after his chokehold on Gobert, so I’d expect Saric and Looney to start in the frontcourt to match the size of Williams and Holmgren.
NBA FanDuel & DraftKings Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and top games to target, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel:
- With Curry and Green out for Golden State, there’s a lot of usage to go around now, and with their entire projected lineup at $7,100 or less, I’ll be starting cash games with at least 2-3 Warriors. Chris Paul ($7,100) is about as solid as it gets for cash games, even after his price went up $1k. He went for 35 FP in 36 minutes last game, and in a projected close game with OKC, I’d expect that type of line to be his floor today. Andrew Wiggins ($4,900) had a mini-breakout last game, going for 25.4 FP in 27 minutes. With his price still under $5k, I think he’s one of the best values of the slate. Dario Saric ($5,700) is who I’d target next, as he will almost certainly start and see 30+ minutes after going for 35.8 FP in 32 minutes last game.
- On the other side of that game, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($11,300) is my top spend up play for cash games, as he’s gone for 60+ FP in three of his last four and his price has barely increased. Keep using him in these projected close games, as his price will likely be above $12k next game. Josh Giddey ($7,000) is at his second-lowest price of the season, and with back-to-back games around 40 FP, he’s a top cash game target for me tonight.
- It should be possible to fit in Bam Adebayo ($10,000) with SGA, and if you like your overall lineup and can fit those two, I would absolutely do it. Bam has gone for 50+ FP in six of his last seven games, and that trend will likely continue with Herro still out and a projected close game with Brooklyn. Duncan Robinson ($6,000), Jaime Jaquez ($5,600), Haywood Highsmith ($5,400), and Josh Richardson ($4,800) are all in play for value depending on your positional needs. If I had to only go with two, then Duncan would be my top choice since his minutes are safest, and Richardson seems to be slowly taking over Lowry’s role, and I like his sub $5k price.
- Cameron Johnson ($6,100) went up $800 in price after going for 37 FP last game, but still remains a great mid-range cash game play at the SF/PF spots. Spencer Dinwiddie ($6,600) went up $700 after going for 47.5 FP but is definitely in play if you need another mid-range priced guard. DayRon Sharpe ($4,700) is my favorite cheap center after Saric, if you don’t want to spend up on Bam.
Looking at DraftKings:
- Paul ($6,700), Wiggins ($5,100), and Saric ($5,200) remain a cash game core at great prices, while SGA ($10,600) and Giddey ($7,000) are still the top options from OKC.
- Adebayo ($9,200) only went up $200 since last game and remains a cash game steal, while all four of Robinson ($5,800), Richardson ($4,800), Highsmith ($4,600), and Jaquez ($4,500) are solid options to fill a final position or two.
- Johnson ($5,900) and Dinwiddie ($6,900) are still my favorite p/$ Nets targets along with Sharpe ($4,400).
Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the day, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or less minutes or usage.
NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to follow the RotoGrinders NBA twitter feed, read our NBA DFS Alerts page, and watch NBA Crunch Time.
Good luck today!