NBA DFS Projections Preview: October 26
Just two games today after yesterday’s behemoth slate, but we’re not short of superstars to choose from with Giannis, Embiid, Lillard, Durant, LeBron, and AD all in play. We could have had three more big names on this slate, but Harden is out for Philly, while Beal and Booker are doubtful for Phoenix, which will open up plenty of value.
Let’s check out any other news and lineup notes before some DFS picks!
This is a daily weekday NBA article that can hopefully show you some lineup-building tools on RotoGrinders, as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS NBA, such as tracking injury news right up to lock and swapping in top value plays if a questionable player gets ruled out, knowing which teams are on a back-to-back and not fully rested, and adjusting to daily positional matchups and team pace matchups to always be targeting the players and teams with the highest daily upside. I will be focusing on the “main slate” each weekday, but you can still find plenty of analysis for any other slates, including weekends, on RotoGrinders.
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
NBA DFS Injury Roundup
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day, it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor throughout the day and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games, I’m looking for big minutes, high usage, and fast-paced games with bad defenses. So knowing who is dealing with any kind of injury and might not get 30+ minutes is critical, as well as how a regular starter being out will affect other players’ usage rates and if their replacement starter is worth using.
Looking at The Situation Room, we can see who is definitely out, likely out, and questionable for the upcoming slate and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.
- It’s a quiet day as far as injury situations we don’t know yet. There is a very slight chance Beal or Booker get upgraded from their doubtful tags to questionable at some point, but for now expect both to be out. (Update: Beal and Booker officially OUT)
- The only other situations of note are Harden out for Philly, and Vanderbilt out for the Lakers.
If you want to see how someone out will affect the rest of the team, check out the CourtIQ tool, where you can see what players’ usage rates and FPPM (fantasy points per minute) rates are for any player with certain teammates on or off the floor.
NBA Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Games
Let’s take a look at NBA Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes, as well as which teams or games I’m looking to target. This page is my favorite tool for NBA DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the day, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.
- With Harden out, we should see DeAnthony Melton start for him, and he will be a top value play of the slate coming in to the season strong after a big preseason. Maxey will also be a top play today as the primary ball-handler, and Embiid has as high of a ceiling as anyone without Harden.
- Damian Lillard replaces Holiday as the Bucks starting PG, but for $9k+ on both sites, I’ll likely use my salary on other spend-ups. I’m not expecting the big games we’re used to seeing from Lillard, as he now has to compete with the usage of Giannis. Malik Beasley is expected to start at SG to begin the year and is a decent value option.
- With Beal out last game, Grayson Allen drew the start so expect that to continue. With Booker now out too, I think there’s a good chance Phoenix will go with Jordan Goodwin as the starting PG. For under $4k on both sites, Goodwin is a clear top value play of the slate, while Eric Gordon should also be heavily involved after he saw 32 minutes in the opening game off the bench.
- The Lakers will have the same group as their opening game, with Taurean Prince continuing to start for Vanderbilt.
NBA DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and top games to target, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel:
- Jordan Goodwin ($3,600) should easily be one of the top p/$ plays of the slate assuming he sees 25+ minutes, making him a top cash game play. Eric Gordon ($4,700) will be another top cash game target, looking at 30+ minutes even if he comes off the bench again. Josh Okogie ($5,000) did increase $700 in salary, but remains a strong target looking at 30+ minutes and even more usage with Booker out now. Durant ($9,800) is a clear top spend-up, and Nurkic ($7,900) is a great GPP play with most people spending up on Embiid ($11,200).
- DAngelo Russell ($6,000) remains way too cheap and will be a cash game lock for me until he gets closer to $7k. Austin Reaves ($6,900) only went up $200 in salary after going for 33.6 FP in 31 minutes opening night, making him another top target in the $6-7k range. Taurean Prince ($4,900) was much more productive than I expected Tuesday, going for over 25 FP in 29 minutes, so he’s clearly a value option to consider at SF/PF.
- Even with all the guard value mentioned so far, I’d try to find a spot for DeAnthony Melton ($5,800) in cash games, as he’s too cheap for someone with 40+ FP upside. Tyrese Maxey ($7,700) is one of my favorite GPP plays, as he could be lower-owned than usual with all this other guard value.
Looking at DraftKings:
- At almost minimum price, Jordan Goodwin ($3,200) remains a cash game lock for me, along with Eric Gordon ($4,400) and likely one of Josh Okogie ($4,700) or Taurean Prince ($4,300).
- Kevin Durant ($8,900) is still a “value” at under $9k especially with no Booker or Beal, and DAngelo Russell ($5,500) remains a cash game lock at this big of a mispricing.
- Jusuf Nurkic ($6,100) is almost $2k cheaper than FanDuel, so I prefer using him in DraftKings, especially since you can use both he and Embiid ($10,300) in the same lineup.
- DeAnthony Melton ($5,300) remains an excellent value play along with Austin Reaves ($5,600), while Maxey, LBJ, and AD are three of my favorite GPP plays.
Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the day, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or less minutes or usage.
NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to follow the RotoGrinders NBA twitter feed, read our NBA DFS Alerts page, and watch NBA Crunch Time.
Good luck today!