NBA DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 10/27/22
Four games on today’s slate with a couple fun matchups in DAL/BKN & MEM/SAC while Miami is on a back-to-back on the road and could struggle to keep up with the Warriors and we get a rematch between LAC and OKC which will see the addition of Paul George who missed last game. Brooklyn is also on a b2b and are giving Joe Harris the night off.
This is a daily weekday NBA article that can hopefully show you some lineup building tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS NBA, such as tracking injury news right up to lock and swapping in top value plays if a questionable player gets ruled, knowing which teams are on a back-to-back and not fully rested, and adjusting to daily positional matchups and team pace matchups to always be targeting the players and teams with the highest daily upside. I will be focusing on the “main slate” each weekday, but you can still find plenty of analysis for any other slates including weekends on RG, and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies / tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
NBA DFS Injury Roundup
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor throughout the day and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games I’m looking for big minutes, high usage, and fast-paced games with bad defenses so knowing who is dealing with any kind of injury and might not get 30+ minutes is critical as well as how a regular starter being out will affect other players’ usage rates and if their replacement starter is worth using.
Looking at The Situation Room we can see who is definitely out, likely out, and questionable for today’s main slate and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.
- Paul George is by far the biggest unknown today as he’s questionable with the illness that kept him out last game. The Clippers tip off 30 minutes after the slate locks so hopefully we learn George’s status before lock as his absence is huge for guys like Mann, Batum, Covington, and pretty much all the starters. (Update: George WILL PLAY)
- John Konchar is questionable with shoulder soreness and if out his minutes would be absorbed by Bane, Brooks, and Roddy. (Update: Konchar is OUT)
If you want to see how someone out will affect the rest of the team check out the Court IQ Tool where you can see what players’ usage rates and FPPM (fantasy points per minute) are for any team with certain teammates on or off the floor.
NBA Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Games to Target
Let’s take a look at NBA Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes as well as which teams or games I’m looking to target. This page is my favorite tool for NBA DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the day, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.
- Josh Giddey remains out for OKC so Tre Mann should continue to start for him while Aaron Wiggins started over Kenrich Williams last game and in the same matchup is likely to do so again.
- Keegan Murray will start for the Kings which doesn’t change too much as he was getting starters’ minutes anyways the last two games while DAL, BKN, MIA, GSW, and MEM should all have their usual starting lineups.
- DAL/BKN and MEM/SAC are easily my favorite games to stack and to target players from while OKC is where I’m looking for value.
NBA DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and top games to target, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel:
- Tre Mann ($5,400) only went up $600 after scoring over 40 FP in 36 minutes last game and is in the same spot today so he is a top value play and the first guy I’m locking in. Norman Powell ($3,900) is the same price as he was last game in which he scored under 10 FP in 30 minutes so I can’t blame anyone for fading him especially with George playing today.
- Keegan Murray ($5,200) is going to be another guy that I’m locking in right away as he’s officially starting now and in what should be one of the highest scoring games of the night he is my favorite p/$ option to get exposure to the Kings offense. This is also the cheapest price he is going to be all season as he should be a regular 35+ minute guy with 40+ FP upside so take advantage of this price tag while you can.
- Spencer Dinwiddie ($5,000) is also the cheapest he’s going to be for a while and is a top value play today and if you need more value I’d consider Aaron Wiggins ($4,400) or Caleb Martin ($4,100) as both should see just under 30 minutes and both are coming off games showing their upside with 34 and 40 FP respectively.
- Other guys I like for the price are Ben Simmons ($5,800), Kyle Lowry ($5,100), Santi Aldama ($5,300), Steven Adams ($5,500), Max Strus ($4,600), and Kevin Huerter ($5,300).
Looking at DraftKings:
- Tre Mann ($5,600) and Keegan Murray ($5,500) remain my favorite plays while Norman Powell ($5,500) is way too expensive compared to FD and is off my radar today.
- Desmond Bane ($7,000) is our top projected p/$ player currently on DK and after going for 57 FP last game and another great matchup today he will be very popular and a risky fade for cash games.
- Draymond Green ($5,700) and Steven Adams ($5,400) are two of my favorite big men for under $6k while some other guys I like for the price are Spencer Dinwiddie ($5,500), Royce ONeale ($4,700), Aaron Wiggins ($3,900), Caleb Martin ($4,600), and Santi Aldama ($5,200).
Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the day, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or less minutes or usage.
NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to follow the RotoGrinders NBA twitter feed, read our NBA DFS Alerts page, and watch NBA Crunch Time.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn