NBA DFS Projections Preview: October 30
We’re starting the week with a huge 11-game slate, and I’m expecting this to be a wild one as we have seven teams on a back-to-back, including the Lakers who saw their stars play huge minutes in OT. We’ll get the official injury reports later, but there’s a decent chance at least one of LeBron or AD will be questionable, while the Warriors also have some rest candidates.
Let’s check out any other news and lineup notes before some DFS picks!
This is a daily weekday NBA article that can hopefully show you some lineup-building tools on RotoGrinders, as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS NBA, such as tracking injury news right up to lock and swapping in top value plays if a questionable player gets ruled out, knowing which teams are on a back-to-back and not fully rested, and adjusting to daily positional matchups and team pace matchups to always be targeting the players and teams with the highest daily upside. I will be focusing on the “main slate” each weekday, but you can still find plenty of analysis for any other slates, including weekends, on RotoGrinders.
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
NBA DFS Injury Roundup
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day, it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor throughout the day and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games, I’m looking for big minutes, high usage, and fast-paced games with bad defenses. So knowing who is dealing with any kind of injury and might not get 30+ minutes is critical, as well as how a regular starter being out will affect other players’ usage rates and if their replacement starter is worth using.
Looking at The Situation Room, we can see who is definitely out, likely out, and questionable for the upcoming slate and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.
- (Update: Kyrie is OUT) – Kyrie Irving is questionable with a left foot sprain, and if out I’d consider Luka Doncic basically a must play in all formats. Hardaway or Green would be top candidates to replace Irving in the starting lineup.
- Klay Thompson is questionable with right knee soreness, and Jonathan Kuminga is questionable with a left knee contusion. Klay sitting could move CP3 back in the starting lineup or they could go with Moody, while Kuminga out would give more minutes to Wiggins, Moody, and Saric.
- (Update: Gafford is OUT) – Daniel Gafford is questionable with a left ankle sprain, and now that he’s out we’ll see Coulibaly join the starting five.
- (Update: McDaniels is IN) – Jaden McDaniels is questionable with his left calf strain, and if he does make his season debut I’d expect him to start, moving Alexander-Walker back to the bench.
- (Update: OG is now probable ) – OG Anunoby missed the last game with “bilateral muscle cramps” in his legs, and is questionable for today. If out again, we should see Gary Trent start again, and Gradey Dick would be looking at solid minutes off the bench again after playing 28 minutes last game.
- (Update: Bam is OUT) – Bam Adebayo is questionable with a left hip contusion, and if out we could see Thomas Bryant start at center, or they could slide Love there. Herro and Butler would get big usage bumps and be much more appealing plays with no Bam. Josh Richardson is questionable with his heel injury, and if he’s available we could see him come off the bench or start for Love.
If you want to see how someone out will affect the rest of the team, check out the CourtIQ tool, where you can see what players’ usage rates and FPPM (fantasy points per minute) rates are for any player with certain teammates on or off the floor.
NBA Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Games
Let’s take a look at NBA Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes. This page is my favorite tool for NBA DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the day, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.
- Claxton and Johnson will remain out for the Nets, so we should see Cam Thomas and Dorian Finney-Smith draw the starts again for them. Thomas is a fantastic play on all sites, while Finney-Smith is a solid value option.
- Precious Achiuwa is likely out for Toronto with a groin injury, so Chris Boucher is looking at a bump in minutes off the bench and is a decent GPP play.
- Jalen Johnson got the start over Bey for Atlanta yesterday, so look for that to continue, and he’s still a solid play at his current salaries.
- There’s a good chance the Warriors rest at least one player if not a couple, but if everyone plays, look for Chris Paul to come off the bench again after Draymond Green took his starting spot yesterday in his return from ankle injury.
- Butler and Love are back after getting a game off, but Martin remains out and Richardson has a chance to play with a mid-day upgrade to Q. Middleton is back for the Bucks after sitting the front end of the b2b yesterday, but Beauchamp is out with an illness.
- Robert Williams is out for rest for Portland, so Deandre Ayton should get a slight boost in minutes, and all the backups bigs will absorb Williams’ time.
NBA FanDuel & DraftKings Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and top games to target, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel:
- I’m starting with the Nets in cash games, as they are loaded with great plays in a projected close game with Charlotte. You could honestly make a case for any of their starting five along with O’Neale in your main build, but we can only use four max, and today I’m expecting most cash game lineups to have 2-3 at minimum. Cam Thomas ($7,800) is the highest upside play likely starting at PG coming off two 44+ FP games, and even though his price jumped $1,100 from last game, I still think he’s a solid p/$ option. Dinwiddie ($6,000) and Simmons ($6,700) are strong mid-range options, while Finney-Smith ($4,600) and O’Neale ($4,100) are great salary savers at the SF/PF spots. Which 2-4 guys I use in cash games will likely depend on what other value opens up throughout the day. For now, I’m looking mainly at Thomas, Dinwiddie, and at least one of Finney-Smith/O’Neale.
- Coby White ($5,100) will likely see an ownership dip after his terrible 2.9 FP performance in 27 minutes last game, but I will be back on him as he is just too cheap for a starting PG in a solid matchup with the Pacers. He’s way more likely to go for 25+ FP than under 3 FP again. Jrue Holiday ($6,500) is another great value PG as his price dropped another $200 even after going for 41.5 FP last game, and he should be good for 30+ FP against a bad Wizards defense.
- Jalen Johnson ($6,000) is now a starter for ATL, and even in a blowout against the Bucks yesterday, he still went for over 30 FP in just 25 minutes. Today’s matchup with Minnesota should be much more competitive and his matchup is much easier compared to Giannis, so assuming he sees 30+ minutes, he should easily pay off this price tag. DeAndre Hunter ($5,400) is another strong value target from ATL with b2b games over 30 FP.
- Ausar Thompson ($6,000) is one of my favorite SG plays today, as his price is going to skyrocket soon if he keeps going for 30+ FP every game. His salary has only increased $300 since his first game, yet he’s increased his FP output in every game so far, with his best performance last game (34.9 FP). Keep taking advantage of his cheap salary, as this is probably the last chance to play him for $6k or less.
- Ziaire Williams ($4,500) has also increased his FP output in each of the first three games for Memphis, and coming off a 28.5 FP game and a $600 salary increase, he’s still looking like a great value option at the SF spot. Kennard remains out, along with all the other injured/suspended Grizzlies, so Williams should be looking at around 30 minutes again. If he continues to shoot at will (twelve three point shots last game) and rebound like he has been (9+ rebounds in last two games), he will remain a steal until his price gets closer to $5.5k+.
Looking at DraftKings:
- Cam Thomas ($6,000) is just flat out mis-priced in my opinion on DraftKings, and he is the first guy I’m locking in to cash games. Finney-Smith ($4,100) and O’Neale ($4,300) remain fantastic salary savers, and both Dinwiddie ($6,100) and Simmons ($6,400) are top mid-range targets.
- Jalen Johnson ($5,000) remains one of my favorite values of the slate along with Coby White ($5,100), while Malcolm Brogdon ($5,600) is another great PG value averaging over 30 FPPG.
- Jalen Duren ($7,100) has been one of the best p/$ plays on DraftKings the first three games, and his price has started to adjust to his production jumping $1,200 from last game. I think he’ll eventually be an $8,500+ player in a couple of weeks, so keep taking advantage of his cheap salary and likely 40+ FP floors. Ausar Thompson ($5,500) remains a great value target from Detroit as well.
Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the day, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or less minutes or usage.
NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to follow the RotoGrinders NBA twitter feed, read our NBA DFS Alerts page, and watch NBA Crunch Time.
Good luck today!