NBA DFS Showdown Tool: DraftKings Single Game Simulations

During the NBA Playoffs, DraftKings will be offering huge single game contests with massive prize pools. We’re more excited than ever to help our members achieve success in these fun and exciting tournaments. In order to assist, we’re going to use the power of our projections to simulate the slate and provide ideas on how we might best tackle each game.

Let’s Break Down Tonight’s Featured Matchup

There are two main components to each Showdown slate analysis that you’ll find below:

  • Optimal lineup allocations (CPT and UTIL) for both teams based on the results of our simulation.
  • Comparison of player ownership projections to optimal allocations.

Methodology

To analyze this specific Showdown slate, we simulated every possession for thousands of NBA matchups based on tonight’s expected rate stats. Each possession has a designated probability of an event occurring for each player. Each trial is its own realistic box score of within the range of possible outcomes tonight, and within each boxscore a fantasy score on DraftKings is calculated.

From there, it is just a matter of finding the optimal lineups and tabulating the outcomes for your information.

Optimal DFS Lineups Simulation

Choosing the right Captain

The most unique part of the format, and therefore the biggest opportunity for competitive advantage, is choosing your CPT.

We went through the possible lineup combinations and found the top CPT selection for each simulated trial.

About the Author

  • Allan Lem (fathalpert)

  • Allan Lem (aka “fathalpert”) began playing fantasy sports in high school and transitioned to DFS in 2015. He graduated from UC Berkeley with a degree in Economics and lives in California with his wife and two kids. Allan got his break in the industry covering Preseason NBA content and has since helped with NBA, Summer League, MLB, and Preseason NFL content as well as overseeing the RotoGrinders blog program. He dreams of winning a big tournament so he can try cashing one of those giant cardboard checks at his local bank. You can follow Allan on Twitter @allanlemdfs.

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