NBA First Look: Friday, March 27th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2015-03-30 23:00:27

We’ve got a huge Friday slate ahead of us once again.

Odds are subject to change throughout the day

Detroit

Opponent Preview – Orlando:
Pace of Play: 96 (Rank: 16)
Points Allowed Per Game: 102 (Rank: 25)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 26
Rebounding Differential Rank: 25

Targets: Greg Monroe did not practice on Thursday. He should be considered as questionable for Friday night’s game against the Magic, but don’t be surprised if the Pistons hold him out. If that’s the case, Andre Drummond and Anthony Tolliver would both see an uptick in minutes and/or production. Reggie Jackson has been on a tear over his last five games. He remains an elite play against the Magic, who are ranked 21st against point guards.

Orlando

Opponent Preview – Detroit:
Pace of Play: 95.5 (Rank: 21)
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.6 (Rank: 15)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 20
Rebounding Differential Rank: 10

Targets: The Magic should be at full-strength for Friday night’s game against the Magic. This is a mediocre matchup at best, as the Pistons are ranked 15th in points allowed per game and 10th in rebounding differential. Nikola Vucevic, Victor Oladipo, and Elfrid Payton are all in play here, but all three players are secondary options at their respective positions.

L.A. Clippers

Opponent Preview – Philadelphia:
Pace of Play: 98.4 (Rank: 5)
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.2 (Rank: 17)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 10
Rebounding Differential Rank: 27

Targets: The Clippers are coming off of a blowout win against the Knicks. They may have another one in store for us on Friday night, as they face the struggling Sixers. Chris Paul, Blake Griffin, and DeAndre Jordan all have terrific matchups individually, but it’s tough to predict how many minutes they are going to see in a potential blowout. They are risky cash game options on FanDuel and DraftKings, but can be targeted as tournament plays.

Philadelphia

Opponent Preview – L.A. Clippers:
Pace of Play: 96.8 (Rank: 11)
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.2 (Rank: 17)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 17
Rebounding Differential Rank: 18

Targets: Nerlens Noel is the only Sixers’ player that is seeing 30+ minutes on a consistent basis. On a night with a very full slate of games, he is the only player on my radar from Philadelphia. Noel has averaged 37 fantasy points per game over his last ten outings and he draws a decent matchup against DeAndre Jordan and the Clippers.

Charlotte

Opponent Preview – Washington:
Pace of Play: 95.9 (Rank: 18)
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.7 (Rank: 8)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 6
Rebounding Differential Rank: 4

Targets: Mo Williams is questionable for Friday night’s game against the Wizards. If he is unable to play, Kemba Walker would see all of the minutes that he could handle. Walker is an intriguing tournament play against a Wizards’ team that is ranked dead last against point guards over the last seven days. Al Jefferson is also worth a look at his depressed price, but he is dealing with a knee injury, which does make him a risky play.

Washington

Opponent Preview – Charlotte:
Pace of Play: 95.5 (Rank: 21)
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.9 (Rank: 4)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 7
Rebounding Differential Rank: 12

Targets: Bradley Beal rolled his ankle on Wednesday night and is listed as questionable ahead of this game. If he is unable to suit up, give a small boost to John Wall, who continues to post big stat lines at home. Marcin Gortat is also in play here. His price is depressed and he may see a few extra minutes, as he will be tasked with defending Al Jefferson.

Miami

Opponent Preview – Atlanta:
Pace of Play: 96.3 (Rank: 13)
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.2 (Rank: 5)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 8
Rebounding Differential Rank: 29

Targets: Hassan Whiteside is doubtful for Friday night’s game against the Hawks. Dwyane Wade is questionable. This could be another night to target Goran Dragic, as he may be asked to carry the load offensively. The Heat may be on the wrong end of a blowout though, as they are facing the best team in the Eastern Conference.

Atlanta

Opponent Preview – Miami:
Pace of Play: 93.1 (Rank: 29)
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.7 (Rank: 3)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 19
Rebounding Differential Rank: 24

Targets: The Hawks have said that they will be resting players in the next few games, so be on the lookout for that on Friday night. This could be a great opportunity to rest some starters, especially if Dwyane Wade is unable to suit up. Check the injury news throughout the day and give a boost to the starting five if the Hawks decide to rest a couple of starting.

Cleveland

Opponent Preview – Brooklyn:
Pace of Play: 94.9 (Rank: 24)
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.7 (Rank: 19)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 23
Rebounding Differential Rank: 26

Targets: It’s been a while since I’ve recommended a Cavaliers’ player not-named LeBron James, but I’m going to do just that. Kevin Love’s price is at one of it’s lowest points of the season, he is coming off of a 41 fantasy point outing against the Grizzlies, and he draws a favorable matchup against the Nets, who are ranked 28th against power forwards. LeBron James is also in play, but he’s not my favorite superstar to target on Friday night.

Brooklyn

Opponent Preview – Cleveland:
Pace of Play: 94.8 (Rank: 25)
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.6 (Rank: 11)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 21
Rebounding Differential Rank: 8

Targets: Thaddeus Young has already been ruled out of Friday night’s game against the Cavaliers. Mason Plumlee, Bojan Bogdanovic, and Cory Jefferson will all see a small boost in playing time, but the biggest fantasy boost goes to Brook Lopez. He has averaged 38 fantasy points per game over his last ten contests. He should continue his high level of play against the Cavaliers.

Boston

Opponent Preview – New York:
Pace of Play: 93.5 (Rank: 28)
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.4 (Rank: 22)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 29
Rebounding Differential Rank: 27

Targets: The Celtics are huge favorites against a Knicks’ team that is both short-handed and without any motivation. They have nothing to play for at this point. Meanwhile, the Celtics are fighting for their playoff lives. With Isaiah Thomas back in the lineup, there really aren’t any plays that stand out on Boston.

New York

Opponent Preview – Boston:
Pace of Play: 98.4 (Rank: 5)
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.5 (Rank: 23)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 14
Rebounding Differential Rank: 19

Targets: Alexey Shved will be out for the next 2-3 weeks, which means Shane Larkin and Langston Galloway will continue to log heavy minutes in the Knicks’ backcourt. Both players are decent value plays, but neither one stands out as a must start. The same can be said for Andrea Bargnani. He offers nice upside in his matchup against the Celtics, but he’s a little too inconsistent to target in cash games.

L.A. Lakers

Opponent Preview – Toronto:
Pace of Play: 95.7 (Rank: 19)
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.5 (Rank: 23)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 25
Rebounding Differential Rank: 21

Targets: I’m all about that Lin, bout that Lin. In his first two games back in the starting lineup, he has scored 30 and 29 fantasy points. He has only played 30 minutes in each game, but I expect that total to come up over the last few weeks of the regular season. He draws a terrific matchup against the Raptors, who are ranked 23rd against point guards this season. Jordan Clarkson and Tarik Black are also decent value plays.

Toronto

Opponent Preview – L.A. Lakers:
Pace of Play: 96.5 (Rank: 12)
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.7 (Rank: 28)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 28
Rebounding Differential Rank: 14

Targets: Kyle Lowry said that he was not going to rush back from his injury this time. Reading between the lines, I’d be very surprised if he played on Friday night against the Lakers. Assuming he is out again, DeMar DeRozan, Greivis Vasquez, and Lou Williams are all terrific fantasy points. All three should see an uptick in minutes and/or usage.

Sacramento

Opponent Preview – New Orleans:
Pace of Play: 93.9 (Rank: 27)
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.9 (Rank: 13)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 24
Rebounding Differential Rank: 5

Targets: DeMarcus Cousins is the obvious choice here, but his price has come up across the industry and he draws a fairly tough matchup against Omer Asik. If you want some exposure to the Kings, I’d recommend Rudy Gay instead. He has averaged 38 fantasy points per game over his last four contests.

New Orleans

Opponent Preview – Sacramento:
Pace of Play: 98.1 (Rank: 7)
Points Allowed Per Game: 105 (Rank: 29)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 27
Rebounding Differential Rank: 3

Targets: Assuming Rudy Gay starts at power forward again on Friday night, Anthony Davis would have a HUGE mismatch. It wouldn’t surprise me to see the Kings go with a bigger starting lineup, but even if they do, Davis is the top overall play on the board. He has averaged 55 fantasy points per game over his last ten outings and the Pelicans are in must-win mode.

Minnesota

Opponent Preview – Houston:
Pace of Play: 99.2 (Rank: 2)
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.1 (Rank: 16)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 4
Rebounding Differential Rank: 15

Targets: Nikola Pekovic, Ricky Rubio, Kevin Garnett, and Gary Neal are all expected to miss Friday night’s game against the Rockets. Zach LaVine, Andrew Wiggins, and Gorgui Dieng will continue to log heavy minutes. All three are viable options in a fast-paced game against Houston. Chase Budinger is also worth a look as a value play at small forward.

Houston

Opponent Preview – Minnesota:
Pace of Play: 97.1 (Rank: 9)
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.7 (Rank: 30)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 30
Rebounding Differential Rank: 23

Targets: The Rockets are large favorites at home against the Wolves. This game has the potential to turn into a blowout, which hurts the fantasy appeal of the team as a whole. James Harden is always in play, but again, it’s tough to predict how many minutes the starters are going to play in this one. Jason Terry also deserves consideration at shooting guard, as he will draw another start for the injured Patrick Beverley.

Golden State

Opponent Preview – Memphis:
Pace of Play: 94.3 (Rank: 26)
Points Allowed Per Game: 95.4 (Rank: 2)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 3
Rebounding Differential Rank: 13

Targets: The Warriors square off against the Grizzlies in a battle between two of the best teams in the Western Conference. This is a game that I can’t wait to watch, but it’s not one that I have a ton of interest in for fantasy purposes. The Grizzlies are ranked second in points allowed per game this season. There are better matchups to exploit.

Memphis

Opponent Preview – Golden State:
Pace of Play: 100.6 (Rank: 1)
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.1 (Rank: 14)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 1
Rebounding Differential Rank: 16

Targets: The Grizzlies will have a pace-up game against the Warriors, but this is still a fairly tough matchup. The Warriors are ranked first in defensive efficiency this season. Marc Gasol, Zach Randolph, and Tony Allen are in play, but all three are secondary options at their respective positions.

Dallas

Opponent Preview – San Antonio:
Pace of Play: 96 (Rank: 16)
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.8 (Rank: 9)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 5
Rebounding Differential Rank: 11

Targets: The Mavericks beat the Spurs by a wide margin on Wednesday night, but now have to face them in San Antonio. I expect a much better defensive effort from the Spurs in this game. Monta Ellis had a 40 fantasy point outing the other night, but the Spurs will likely have a better game plan for him this time around. I’ll be avoiding the Mavericks on Friday night.

San Antonio

Opponent Preview – Dallas:
Pace of Play: 97 (Rank: 10)
Points Allowed Per Game: 101 (Rank: 20)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 16
Rebounding Differential Rank: 30

Targets: Kawhi Leonard is the only Spurs’ player that should be trusted at this point in the season. We never know when coach Popovich is going to give his veterans rest, which makes them very risky cash game options. Leonard, on the other hand, has averaged 38 fantasy points in 33 minutes per game over his last ten.

Utah

Opponent Preview – Denver:
Pace of Play: 98.5 (Rank: 4)
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.8 (Rank: 27)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 22
Rebounding Differential Rank: 17

Targets: We have a terrific opportunity to exploit the weakness that is the Nuggets’ interior defense. Rudy Gobert and Derrick Favors are both in great spots on Friday night and both are elite plays at their respective positions. Gordon Hayward is probable for this game and could be worth a look as a tournament play.

Denver

Opponent Preview – Utah:
Pace of Play: 92.4 (Rank: 30)
Points Allowed Per Game: 95 (Rank: 1)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 15
Rebounding Differential Rank: 2

Targets: The Nuggets draw an extremely tough matchup against the Jazz, who are ranked first in points allowed per game and second in rebounding differential this season. The Nuggets can safely be avoided in all contests.

Portland

Opponent Preview – Phoenix:
Pace of Play: 99.1 (Rank: 3)
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.6 (Rank: 26)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 17
Rebounding Differential Rank: 22

Targets: Nicolas Batum is questionable for Friday night’s game against the Suns. This should be a close, high-scoring game. Damian Lillard and LaMarcus Aldridge are both terrific options against the Suns, who are ranked 26th in points allowed per game this season.

Phoenix

Opponent Preview – Portland:
Pace of Play: 96.3 (Rank: 13)
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.1 (Rank: 10)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 9
Rebounding Differential Rank: 9

Targets: Brandon Knight is questionable for Friday night’s game against the Blazers, but the Suns are optimistic that he will be able to play. If he does, that hurts the appeal of Eric Bledsoe and Marcus Morris. Even though this game has a high total, there aren’t any Suns’ players that really stand out here.