NBA First Look: Thursday, March 5th
After Wednesday’s madness, things quiet down as usual on Thursday.
| HOME | AWAY | VEGAS LINE | VEGAS TOTAL | TIME |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago (38-23) | Oklahoma City (33-27) | OKC -4 | 200.5 | 8:00 pm EST |
| Portland (39-19) | Dallas (40-22) | TBD | TBD | 10:30 pm EST |
Oklahoma City
Opponent Preview – Chicago:
Pace of Play: 95.5 (Rank: 22)
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.4 (Rank: 11)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 12
Rebounding Differential Rank: 5
Targets:
Russell Westbrook (FD: $12000, DK: $11300 / DvP: 14 / Usage Rate: 36.9) – At this point, we shouldn’t be surprised by anything that Westbrook does. On Wednesday night, he became the third player since the ABA-merger to post at least four straight triple-doubles. Fade Westbrook at your own risk against Aaron Brooks and the Bulls.
Serge Ibaka (FD: $8200, DK: $8000 / DvP: 14 / Usage Rate: 19.1) – Ibaka got into foul trouble on Wednesday night and failed to do much of anything against the Sixers. While I don’t love his price point, he should be able to bounce back tonight against the Bulls.
Dion Waiters (FD: $4400, DK: $4100 / DvP: 2 / Usage Rate: 23) – Waiters was a big part of Wednesday night’s win against the Sixers, as he had 20 points, 10 rebounds, and 3 assists. Seeing the ball go through the hoop should help bolster his confidence for Thursday’s game against the Bulls.
Chicago
Opponent Preview – Oklahoma City:
Pace of Play: 97.7 (Rank: 7)
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.1 (Rank: 13)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 10
Rebounding Differential Rank: 2
Targets:
Pau Gasol (FD: $9400, DK: $9400 / DvP: 24 / Usage Rate: 23.7) – The Bulls will once again be without Jimmy Butler, Derrick Rose, and Taj Gibson. It will be all hands on deck against the uptempo Thunder. There are six viable options on the Bulls in this one. It starts with Gasol, who is having a career season.
Joakim Noah (FD: $7400, DK: $7400 / DvP: 24 / Usage Rate: 14) – With Butler and Rose out, the Bulls offense is starting to run through Noah more. As mentioned the other night, I expect him to flirt with a few triple-doubles in the next few weeks. That could start on Wednesday night against the Thunder.
Aaron Brooks (FD: $4800, DK: $5400 / DvP: 29 / Usage Rate: 25.6) – Brooks is the top value play on the board. While Russell Westbrook is a terror on the offensive end of the floor, the Thunder have allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing point guards.
Nikola Mirotic (FD: $4700, DK: $5700 / DvP: 24 / Usage Rate: 20.3) – Mirotic has scored 40 and 33 fantasy points in his last two games, playing at least 30 minutes in each. He will continue to see extended action with all of the injuries to the Bulls.
Tony Snell (FD: $3800, DK: $4000 / DvP: 14 / Usage Rate: 14.1) – Snell may not have the highest usage rate, but he’s going to be asked to play a ton of minutes in this one. At his price, he is one of the best value plays on the board.
Dallas
Opponent Preview – Portland:
Pace of Play: 96.5 (Rank: 13)
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.4 (Rank: 9)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 6
Rebounding Differential Rank: 12
Targets:
Monta Ellis (FD: $6700, DK: $6800 / DvP: 17 / Usage Rate: 27.8) – The Mavericks haven’t been productive individually, but Ellis is a strong play against the Blazers. His price is depressed and the Mavericks will need a big game from him with Chandler Parsons out.
Dirk Nowitzki (FD: $6300, DK: $6200 / DvP: 2 / Usage Rate: 25.6) – The Mavericks are expected to have Tyson Chandler back, which means Nowitzki won’t have to play center anymore. His matchup against LaMarcus Aldridge is tough, but his price is at an attractive point on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
Rajon Rondo (FD: $5400, DK: $5700 / DvP: 22 / Usage Rate: 19.7) – Looking for a tournament play that no one will be on? Rondo fits the bill. Since his fight with his coach Rick Carlisle, he has scored 21 and 25 fantasy points. Could he finally turn his season around against Damian Lillard and the Blazers?
Portland
Opponent Preview – Dallas:
Pace of Play: 96.7 (Rank: 10)
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.5 (Rank: 20)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 14
Rebounding Differential Rank: 29
Targets:
LaMarcus Aldridge (FD: $9800, DK: $9100 / DvP: 12 / Usage Rate: 29.9) – Aldridge had a mediocre game against the Clippers on Wednesday night and still finished with 41 fantasy points. Aldridge is a bit expensive on FanDuel, but he’s sitting at a very playable price of $9,100 on DraftKings.
Damian Lillard (FD: $8700, DK: $8100 / DvP: 25 / Usage Rate: 26.6) – Lillard couldn’t get anything to fall against the Clippers, but he still finished with 28 fantasy points thanks to 18 rebounds. He draws a much better matchup on Thursday, as the Mavericks are ranked 25th against point guards.
Nicolas Batum (FD: $5600, DK: $5500 / DvP: 13 / Usage Rate: 14.5) – In yesterday’s Grind Down, I mentioned that Batum was the type of player that could win someone a big tournament like the MEGA Slam. Low and behold, he was on the winning roster. Batum has great upside for his price.
Robin Lopez (FD: $5000, DK: $3800 / DvP: 12 / Usage Rate: 16.1) – Lopez is a DraftKings-specific play against the Mavericks. His matchup against Tyson Chandler isn’t great, but he only needs to score 19 fantasy points to reach value.