NBA First Look: Wednesday, March 11th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2015-03-13 18:03:07

As usual, we’ve got a huge NBA slate on Wednesday. Here’s a breakdown:

Chicago

Opponent Preview – Philadelphia:
Pace of Play: 98.2 (Rank: 6)
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.7 (Rank: 20)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 12
Rebounding Differential Rank: 29

Targets:

Nikola Mirotic (FD: $5700, DK: $6200 / DvP: 30 / Usage Rate: 21) – Mirotic has been terrific over his last six games, averaging 32.3 fantasy points per contest. His price has come up, but he will continue to see around 30 minutes per game as long as Taj Gibson is out of the lineup. The sky is the the limit for Mirotic against the Sixers.

Aaron Brooks (FD: $4800, DK: $4800 / DvP: 27 / Usage Rate: 25.6) – Brooks has scored at least 24 fantasy points in three of his last five games. He is still priced under $5,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings and he draws a favorable matchup against the Sixers, who are ranked 27th against point guards this season.

Philadelphia

Opponent Preview – Chicago:
Pace of Play: 95.5 (Rank: 21)
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.8 (Rank: 12)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 13
Rebounding Differential Rank: 5

Targets: None – We have a full slate of games on tap on Wednesday night. There are much better matchups to exploit.

Sacramento

Opponent Preview – Charlotte:
Pace of Play: 95.4 (Rank: 23)
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.8 (Rank: 6)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 9
Rebounding Differential Rank: 12

Targets:

DeMarcus Cousins (FD: $10600, DK: $9700 / DvP: 20 / Usage Rate: 33.6) – As a whole, this is not a great matchup for the Kings. That said, Cousins deserves a look on DraftKings at a price of only $9,700. He has 50 fantasy point upside every time he takes the floor and the Hornets are ranked 20th against centers this season.

Charlotte

Opponent Preview – Sacramento:
Pace of Play: 97.6 (Rank: 8)
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.1 (Rank: 28)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 27
Rebounding Differential Rank: 2

Targets:

Al Jefferson (FD: $8500, DK: $7600 / DvP: 19 / Usage Rate: 26.7) – Kemba Walker is tentatively expected to return to the lineup on Wednesday night, which should cut into the production of Mo Williams. Jefferson should still get his touches down low though and he is still priced under $8,000 on DraftKings.

Memphis

Opponent Preview – Boston:
Pace of Play: 98.3 (Rank: 5)
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.2 (Rank: 25)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 16
Rebounding Differential Rank: 18

Targets:

Mike Conley (FD: $6400, DK: $6100 / DvP: 18 / Usage Rate: 24) – Conley finally broke out of his slump with a 39.5 fantasy point outing against the Bulls on Monday night. His price is still depressed on most DFS sites and he should play well in a pace-up game against the Celtics.

Boston

Opponent Preview – Memphis:
Pace of Play: 94.2 (Rank: 26)
Points Allowed Per Game: 95.5 (Rank: 1)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 8
Rebounding Differential Rank: 15

Targets: None – The Grizzlies have held their opponents to the fewest points per game this season. Isaiah Thomas may sit out on Wednesday night, but that still doesn’t change anything with regards to the Celtics’ matchup.

Brooklyn

Opponent Preview – Miami:
Pace of Play: 92.7 (Rank: 29)
Points Allowed Per Game: 97 (Rank: 7)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 20
Rebounding Differential Rank: 22

Targets:

Brook Lopez (FD: $6900, DK: $6100 / DvP: 3 / Usage Rate: 27) – Lopez had a huge first half last night against the Pelicans, then only saw six minutes of playing time in the second half. Maybe they were saving him for the second half of their back-to-back. Lopez should be able to take advantage of a Heat front-court that will be without Hassan Whiteside (suspension).

Miami

Opponent Preview – Brooklyn:
Pace of Play: 94.5 (Rank: 25)
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.9 (Rank: 18)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 23
Rebounding Differential Rank: 25

Targets:

Dwyane Wade (FD: $7800, DK: $7200 / DvP: 27 / Usage Rate: 33.9) – Hassan Whiteside is suspended and Goran Dragic is still dealing with a back injury. This could be Wade’s game to dominant. He has done just that recently, scoring at least 35 fantasy points in each of his last five games.

Orlando

Opponent Preview – Milwaukee:
Pace of Play: 96.4 (Rank: 14)
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.7 (Rank: 5)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 2
Rebounding Differential Rank: 23

Targets:

Tobias Harris (FD: $6500, DK: $6900 / DvP: 24 / Usage Rate: 22.9) – Victor Oladipo would be a decent target here if it weren’t for his insanely-high price tag. Harris is much cheaper and draws the better matchup of the two. The Bucks have struggled to defend opposing small forwards this season, ranking 24th against the position.

Milwaukee

Opponent Preview – Orlando:
Pace of Play: 95.8 (Rank: 19)
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.5 (Rank: 24)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 25
Rebounding Differential Rank: 24

Targets:

Giannis Antetokounmpo (FD: $7000, DK: $6900 / DvP: 29 / Usage Rate: 19.5) – Giannis is coming off of a monster 51 fantasy points outing against the Pelicans. His price has come up on FanDuel and it’s actually taken a slight dip on DraftKings. He should be able to fill up the stat sheet against the Magic.

L.A. Clippers

Opponent Preview – Oklahoma City:
Pace of Play: 97.8 (Rank: 7)
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.6 (Rank: 15)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 11
Rebounding Differential Rank: 3

Targets:

DeAndre Jordan (FD: $9600, DK: $9000 / DvP: 24 / Usage Rate: 12.9) – After a three-game lull, Jordan bounced back with a 47 fantasy point effort against the Wolves on Monday night. With Chris Paul banged up, Jordan is the play to target on the Clippers, as they take on the Thunder in Oklahoma City.

J.J. Redick (FD: $5600, DK: $5700 / DvP: 9 / Usage Rate: 19.8) – Jamal Crawford is not expected to play on Wednesday night, which means Redick will continue to log heavy minutes at shooting guard. He has now scored at least 23 fantasy points in each of his last six games.

Oklahoma City

Opponent Preview – L.A. Clippers:
Pace of Play: 96.7 (Rank: 11)
Points Allowed Per Game: 100 (Rank: 19)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 15
Rebounding Differential Rank: 17

Targets:

Russell Westbrook (FD: $13300, DK: $12500 / DvP: 3 / Usage Rate: 37.4) – Westbrook is priced above $13,000 on FanDuel. He also draws a tough matchup against Chris Paul and the Clippers, who are ranked third against point guards this season. Is that enough to scare me off? Absolutely not! He has scored at least 62 fantasy points in each of his last six games.

Atlanta

Opponent Preview – Denver:
Pace of Play: 98.5 (Rank: 4)
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.8 (Rank: 26)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 24
Rebounding Differential Rank: 16

Targets:

Paul Millsap (FD: $7400, DK: $7800 / DvP: 29 / Usage Rate: 23.5) – Millsap’s price is depressed on both FanDuel and DraftKings. He also draws one of the best matchups on the board. The Nuggets have always struggled to contain opposing bigs and this season is no different. They are ranked 29th against power forwards this season.

Jeff Teague (FD: $7100, DK: $7000 / DvP: 17 / Usage Rate: 25.2) – Teague has only topped two times in his last nine games, but I’ll take my chances on him in what should be a fast-paced, high-scoring game against the Nuggets.

DeMarre Carroll (FD: $5700, DK: $4900 / DvP: 28 / Usage Rate: 15.8) – Carroll is still extremely cheap on DraftKings and is a recommended play on that site once again. He needs around 25 fantasy points to meet value expectations, a feat that he is certainly capable of against the Nuggets.

Denver

Opponent Preview – Atlanta:
Pace of Play: 96.2 (Rank: 15)
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.4 (Rank: 4)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 6
Rebounding Differential Rank: 27

Targets:

Kenneth Faried (FD: $6400, DK: $6900 / DvP: 17 / Usage Rate: 19.2) – Faried has played well over his last five games, averaging 34.4 fantasy points in 32 minutes per contest. His matchup against the Hawks isn’t ideal, but his stellar play of late warrants fantasy consideration.

Minnesota

Opponent Preview – Phoenix:
Pace of Play: 99.4 (Rank: 2)
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.7 (Rank: 27)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 17
Rebounding Differential Rank: 26

Targets:

Ricky Rubio (FD: $8200, DK: $8300 / DvP: 16 / Usage Rate: 20.4) – Rubio has scored at least 38 fantasy points in seven of his last ten games. His price is at its highest point of the season, but it’s a good night to pay the premium for the Spanish superstar. The Suns are ranked 27th in points allowed per game and they won’t have the defense of Brandon Knight at their disposal.

Nikola Pekovic (FD: $6200, DK: $4700 / DvP: 9 / Usage Rate: 22.6) – Pekovic is a DraftKings-specific play on Wednesday night. He is only $4,700 on the site, which means he would reach value with ease if he puts up an average effort of 25 fantasy points. He could do that and more against the fifth-worst rebounding team in the NBA.

Phoenix

Opponent Preview – Minnesota:
Pace of Play: 97.4 (Rank: 9)
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.4 (Rank: 29)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 30
Rebounding Differential Rank: 19

Targets:

Eric Bledsoe (FD: $8300, DK: $7600 / DvP: 26 / Usage Rate: 23.5) – Brandon Knight has already been ruled out of Wednesday night’s game, which means Bledsoe gets the green light from me. Target him in cash games and target him in tournaments. All signs point to a big outing against the Wolves, who are ranked 26th against point guards this season.

P.J. Tucker (FD: $5400, DK: $5500 / DvP: 27 / Usage Rate: 13.3) – While Tucker only managed to score 15 fantasy points against the Warriors, he had topped 20 fantasy points in eight of his previous nine games. He should be able to get back on track in a fast-paced game against the Wolves.

Detroit

Opponent Preview – Golden State:
Pace of Play: 100.9 (Rank: 1)
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.4 (Rank: 14)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 1
Rebounding Differential Rank: 14

Targets: None – The Pistons are huge underdogs against the Warriors. They are also playing in the second half of back-to-back road games.

Golden State

Opponent Preview – Detroit:
Pace of Play: 95.8 (Rank: 19)
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.8 (Rank: 17)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 17
Rebounding Differential Rank: 9

Targets: The Warriors are risky options in cash games, given the potential for a blowout, but Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson are both solid tournament plays.

Houston

Opponent Preview – Portland:
Pace of Play: 96.6 (Rank: 13)
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.4 (Rank: 8)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 3
Rebounding Differential Rank: 10

Targets:

James Harden (FD: $11300, DK: $10800 / DvP: 18 / Usage Rate: 30.9) – Arron Afflalo and Nicolas Batum are both very capable defenders. LaMarcus Aldridge and Robin Lopez are capable rim protectors. This is still James Harden that we are talking about though. While he may not be an elite play at his price point, you can never rule him out.

Portland

Opponent Preview – Houston:
Pace of Play: 99.2 (Rank: 3)
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.7 (Rank: 16)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 3
Rebounding Differential Rank: 13

Targets:

LaMarcus Aldridge (FD: $9400, DK: $9000 / DvP: 22 / Usage Rate: 29.7) – Aldridge is coming off of two subpar fantasy outings in a row. He should be able to bounce back against a Rockets’ team, whose interior defense is not the same without Dwight Howard. They are ranked 22nd against power forwards this season.

Nicolas Batum (FD: $6200, DK: $6400 / DvP: 21 / Usage Rate: 14.6) – With Wesley Matthews out, Batum is going to play all of the minutes that he can handle down the stretch of the regular season. He has played at least 36 minutes and he has scored at least 27 fantasy points in each of his last three games.