Married to the Market - NBA Futures Betting and Strategy
Westbrook assisting on LeBron’s record-breaking bucket would’ve been the ultimate irony. Part of me believes he took those few extra dribbles to avoid it.
Just like we discussed last week, Miami jumped into the trade market. Dewayne Dedmon to San Antonio! Try to contain your excitement.
More notably, the Heat are also open to exploring Kyle Lowry trades. Not sure what a currently-injured, 36-year-old point guard due $30M next year would fetch but at least things are percolating in South Beach.
Each section might not yield a bet every week, but ideally there’s actionable info in there to help readers gauge the market.
Something Old
Kyrie’s Grift
This section will be a stagnant market due for a shake-up or a situation we’re tired of seeing.
The devious grin in the above photo says it all. Kyrie did it again. He slithered out of another situation and found a new mark in Dallas.
He’ll tear it up for a month with the Mavs, earn a hefty contract extension, and then the cycle will start again.
Dallas moved to +1400 to win the title. They’re as low as +500 to win the West, the first time they’ve been under +1000 since early November.
Reaction – If you want to put all your eggs in the Kyrie Irving basket, that’s on you. Eggs are too expensive these days to be that careless.
Something New
Golden State as a Non-Contender
This section will highlight risers/fallers. Could be a team, player, entire market, etc.
The prevailing notion has been the Warriors would figure it out at some point, turning around their middling record and threatening for another title. Sportsbooks agreed as Golden State has been top 5 in title odds all season.
Steph Curry’s latest injury changed that. The Warriors are now +1200 in most spots to repeat as NBA champion.
Reaction – Golden State is 28-26. They’re going to struggle to stay afloat without Curry for a few weeks. You can certainly feel better about your Nuggets and Grizzlies tickets. Wouldn’t mind taking shots on the Western teams behind the Warriors (Suns, Clippers, Kings).
Something Measured
Brooklyn’s Record Since Jacque Vaughn Took Over
This section will be an interesting/unique/fun futures-related stat or trend.
It’s been a rollercoaster year for Brooklyn and yet they’re 28-15 with Vaughn at the helm. Their title odds fell to +2000 after the Kyrie trade, but the team has said it doesn’t plan to move Kevin Durant.
It feels like the Nets are “tearing down” the super team everyone was so excited about when in reality, that team never materialized.
Reaction – Let’s not bury Brooklyn just yet. Durant is expected to return after the All-Star break. If they stand pat at the trade deadline (or add someone?!), +1200 to win the East is back in play.
Something Eww
Westbrook in LA
This section will be a market that’s uncertain, mispriced or just generally one to avoid.
The Lakers missed out on the Kyrie sweepstakes and LeBron didn’t hide his disappointment. Westbrook was almost certainly in the hypothetical trade, making an already-awkward situation even more uncomfortable.
LA needs to find a deal for Russ at all costs.
Reaction – 6th Man of the Year shakeup! Westbrook is the favorite but there’s a good chance he’s starting for his new team if he gets moved. Not much value on co-favorite Malcolm Brogdon, but how about Tyrese Maxey at +550? He’s been huge for the surging Sixers.
Image Credit: Getty Images