Married to the Market - NBA Futures Betting and Strategy
The NBA All-Star break is like paternity leave. In theory, it’s a nice respite. In reality, it gets old after about 36 hours.
Each section might not yield a bet every week, but ideally there’s actionable info in there to help readers gauge the market.
Something Old
Russell Westbrook Playing with Non-Shooters
This section will be a stagnant market due for a shake-up or a situation we’re tired of seeing.
Westbrook’s stint with the Clippers probably won’t go much better than his time with the Lakers. But at least this LA team has the type of squad that could allow him to succeed.
The Clippers are tied for the 5th-best three-point percentage (37.8%). The Lakers are 5th-worst at 33.7%. They have the shooters to take advantage of Westbrook’s facilitating abilities, plus a pair of superstars that can space a bit better than his former stud teammates.
Reaction – No guarantee it works out, but this is already a good team. Wouldn’t mind taking shots on the Clippers to win the Pacific division (+300 on BetMGM). Gap between them and the Suns (-165 on BetMGM) is too wide right now.
Something New
Minnesota Acknowledging Rudy Gobert
This section will highlight risers/fallers. Could be a team, player, entire market, etc.
Minnesota’s pragmatic approach to the trade deadline doesn’t excuse the Gobert trade, but going out and acquiring the one guy who seems to like playing with him should be applauded.
Gobert has averaged 15 points and 14 rebounds in three games with Conley. He matched a season high with 15 shot attempts in Minnesota’s last game before the All-Star break. Involving Gobert on offense should keep him engaged on both ends.
Reaction – Feels important to note the Timberwolves are 1-2 in those three games. But we’ve seen Gobert-centric teams excel in the regular season before. Minnesota at +165 to make the playoffs on Caesars seems like decent value.
Something Measured
Sacramento’s Play-In Tournament Odds
This section will be an interesting/unique/fun futures-related stat or trend.
The Kings are currently 3rd in the West. They are +125 to end up in the play-in tournament. +125!!
And it’s not even that crazy. Sacramento is only three games ahead of 7th-place New Orleans (seeds 7-10 are in the play-in). They’re only 4.5 games in front of 11th-place Utah.
Reaction – Take advantage of this crowded conference by finding a plus-money play-in team to back. Give me Oklahoma City at +195 to stay in the mix (currently in 10th).
Something Eww
The All-Star Game
This section will be a market that’s uncertain, mispriced or just generally one to avoid.
When the actual game is the least-entertaining part of All-Star festivities, maybe there shouldn’t be a game at all.
The NFL going with a flag football game in addition to the other playground events worked out well enough. The NBA should go a similar route.
Reaction – Maybe a game of 21? 3-on-3 tournament? HORSE? Or all of the above. If it’s going to be played at half-speed (and it is), might as well have fun with the format.
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