NBA Grind Down: Friday, April 24th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!
Note: Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NBA Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review.
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Houston at Dallas – 7:00 PM ET
- Vegas Line – Dallas -1, 214.5 Over/Under
- Houston Proj. Starters – Terry-Harden-Ariza-Jones-Howard
- Dallas Proj. Starters – Barea-Ellis-Jefferson-Nowitzki-Chandler
| Houston | Dallas | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 214.5 |  | Vegas Total | 214.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 1.0 | Vegas Sprd | -1.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 106.8 | Team Proj. | 107.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 104.75 | Team Pace | 104.75 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Jason Terry | James Harden | Trevor Ariza | Terrence Jones | Dwight Howard | Proj Starter | J.J. Barea | Monta Ellis | Richard Jefferson | Dirk Nowitzki | Tyson Chandler | |
| Opp. Season | 17 | 17 | 26 | 18 | 19 | Opp. Season | 3 | 19 | 19 | 29 | 21 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 1 | 15 | 13 | 13 | 16 | Opp. Last 7 | 8 | 11 | 6 | 10 | 11 | |
Houston
The Rockets have a great opportunity to bury the Mavericks while they are down. The Rockets already have a 2-0 lead and it sounds like Dallas will be without Rajon Rondo and Chandler Parsons for the rest of the season. The Rockets are listed as 1-point underdogs in a game that has the highest total on the board. The Rockets have their team total set at 107 points, which is second only to their opponent.
Opponent Breakdown (Dallas)
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.4 (Rank: 25)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 18
Rebounding Differential Rank: 30
Elite Plays
James Harden (FanDuel: $10600, DraftKings: $10600 / MPG: 37 / Usage Rate: 31.3)
Harden hasn’t had to take over a game in the playoffs yet. He has played well in the first two games of the series, but he is only averaging 39 fantasy points per contest, which is nowhere near reaching value at his price point. Now that the series shifts to Dallas, look for Harden to carry more of the load offensively. He is cheaply-priced on both FanDuel and DraftKings and he should be in for his best game of the series tonight, as role players typically don’t play as well on the road.
Dwight Howard (FD: $7500, DK: $7800 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 23.3)
Howard was grossly underpriced in the first two games of the series. It’s good to see his price come up a bit, as his ownership level should take a small dip tonight. He’s still the number one option at center in my eyes though. Howard posted a monster stat line of 28 points, 12 rebounds, 2 assists, and 2 blocks in Game 2 in 33 minutes of action. He should find success again in Game 3, as the Mavericks are the worst rebounding team in the playoffs.
Secondary Plays
Trevor Ariza (FD: $6100, DK: $6000 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 16.8)
Terrence Jones (FD: $6000, DK: $5900 / MPG: 27 / Usage Rate: 19.2)
Jason Terry (FD: $3800, DK: $4300 / MPG: 21 / Usage Rate: 14.1)
Dallas
The Mavericks are in a must-win situation tonight, as they do not want to fall behind 0-3 in the series. They will be short-handed the rest of the series, as Rajon Rondo and Chandler Parsons have both been ruled out. If anything, the absence of Rondo should only help the team. J.J. Barea will draw the start at point guard, while Monta Ellis, Devin Harris, and Raymond Felton will all see a small boost as well. The Mavericks have the highest team total on the board tonight and they have quite a few fantasy options that are on my radar. I’m not opposed to using 3-4 Mavericks’ players tonight, even in cash games.
Opponent Breakdown (Houston)
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.6 (Rank: 17)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 6
Rebounding Differential Rank: 15
Elite Plays
Dirk Nowitzki (FD: $6400, DK: $7300 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 25.1)
As I’ve mentioned before the playoffs started, Nowitzki was one of the players that was expected to see a biggest increase in minutes. He has averaged 35.5 minutes per game this series, which is an 18% boost over his season average. The minutes boost alone would lead to an expected output of around 33 fantasy points per game (based on his 28 FPPG during the regular season). Throw in a favorable matchup against the Rockets and an increased role in the offense and Nowitzki is an elite fantasy option.
Monta Ellis (FD: $6400, DK: $6700 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 27.8)
Ellis played well in Game 2, finishing with 24 points, 5 rebounds, and 3 assists. With Rajon Rondo and Chandler Parsons both out tonight, we can expect an uptick in both minutes and usage for Ellis. His price is still depressed too, making him an easy plug at shooting guard tonight. He should see upwards of 40 minutes in a must-win game at home.
J.J. Barea (FD: $3700, DK: $4300 / MPG: 18 / Usage Rate: 21.7)
Barea should be on 100% of your rosters tonight, at least in cash games. Even if he is 95% owned, you are still going to gain an advantage on 5% of the field. He is going to draw the start at point guard and he’ll immediately step in and see 30+ minutes of action. He averaged right around 0.90 fantasy points per minute during the regular season and he should reach and exceed value with ease here in Game 3.
Al-Farouq Aminu (FD: $4600, DK: $4200 / MPG: 18 / Usage Rate: 15.2)
Aminu may not start in place of Chandler Parsons, but he is going to see the biggest uptick in minutes with Parsons out of the lineup. Aminu had 27 fantasy points in 23 minutes of action in Game 2 and I expect his minutes to go up in a must-win game at home. Aminu is cheap and is the best value option at small forward.
Secondary Plays
Tyson Chandler (FD: $6500, DK: $7100 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 12.7)
Devin Harris (FD: $3500, DK: $2000 / MPG: 22 / Usage Rate: 17.8)
Toronto at Washington – 8:00 PM ET
- Vegas Line – Washington -4, 195.5 Over/Under
- Toronto Proj. Starters – Lowry-DeRozan-Ross-Johnson-Valanciunas
- Washington Proj. Starters – Wall-Beal-Pierce-Hilario-Gortat
| Toronto | Washington | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 195.5 |  | Vegas Total | 195.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 4.0 | Vegas Sprd | -4.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 95.8 | Team Proj. | 99.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 94.53 | Team Pace | 94.53 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Kyle Lowry | DeMar DeRozan | Terrence Ross | Amir Johnson | Jonas Valanciunas | Proj Starter | John Wall | Bradley Beal | Paul Pierce | Nene Hilario | Marcin Gortat | |
| Opp. Season | 13 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | Opp. Season | 22 | 12 | 23 | 8 | 12 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 4 | Opp. Last 7 | 11 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 13 | |
Toronto
The Raptors have been one of the biggest surprises in the playoffs. Everyone expected them to bounce back after a tough Game 1 loss, but they looked almost disinterested as the Wizards backed it up with another win in Game 2. The Raptors are not completely out of this series, but they need a win tonight to have any chance. Vegas has Toronto listed as 4-point underdogs with their team total set at only 96 points. There are a few secondary plays here, but none of the Raptors stand out as elite plays against the stout defense of the Wizards.
Injury Note: Kyle Lowry is probable for tonight’s game. If for any reason he is unable to play, Greivis Vasquez and Lou WIlliams would soak up the minutes at point guard.
Opponent Breakdown (Washington)
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.6 (Rank: 9)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 5
Rebounding Differential Rank: 3
Elite Plays
NO ELITE PLAYS
Secondary Plays
DeMar DeRozan (FD: $8500, DK: $8300 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 28.5)
Lou Williams (FD: $5300, DK: $5800 / MPG: 25 / Usage Rate: 26.5)
Amir Johnson (FD: $4700, DK: $4700 / MPG: 27 / Usage Rate: 15.7)
Washington
After limping their way through the second half of the season, the Wizards look like a brand new team in the playoffs. They picked up two tough road wins in Toronto to take a commanding 2-0 lead in this series. They will look to complete the sweep, as if they lose a game at home, they will have to head back to Toronto with a chance for the Raptors to put the series at 3-2. The Wizards are 4-point favorites tonight with their team total set at 100 points. The Raptors have been a favorable matchup for fantasy production all season and that should continue for the rest of the series.
Opponent Breakdown (Toronto)
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.1 (Rank: 19)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 23
Rebounding Differential Rank: 21
Elite Plays
John Wall (FD: $9500, DK: $9100 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 25.4)
I was excited to see the point guard matchup between John Wall and Kyle Lowry in this series, but so far, it’s been extremely one-sided. Wall is averaging over 40 fantasy points per game, while Lowry has been M.I.A. Wall has a favorable price point, a good matchup against the Raptors, and he has great splits at home throughout his career. He is a terrific fantasy option tonight at point guard.
Bradley Beal (FD: $6600, DK: $7000 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 22.2)
Beal has seen one of the biggest boosts in minutes in the postseason. He averaged 33 minutes per game in the regular season, but he has already averaged 45 minutes per game in this series. He should see 40+ minutes of action again tonight and he should be able to reach value once again. He’s a low-risk, medium reward play that can be targeted in all league formats.
Secondary Plays
Marcin Gortat (FD: $7000, DK: $6300 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 17.3)
Paul Pierce (FD: $4300, DK: $5500 / MPG: 26 / Usage Rate: 20.1)
Nene Hilario (FD: $4500, DK: $4800 / MPG: 25 / Usage Rate: 22)
Otto Porter (FD: $3900, DK: $4600 / MPG: 19 / Usage Rate: 15.5)
L.A. Clippers at San Antonio – 9:30 PM ET
- Vegas Line – San Antonio -4, 204.5 Over/Under
- L.A. Clippers Proj. Starters – Paul-Redick-Barnes-Griffin-Jordan
- San Antonio Proj. Starters – Parker-Green-Leonard-Duncan-Splitter
| L.A. Clippers | San Antonio | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 204.5 |  | Vegas Total | 204.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 4.0 | Vegas Sprd | -4.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 100.3 | Team Proj. | 104.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.83 | Team Pace | 96.83 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Chris Paul | J.J. Redick | Matt Barnes | Blake Griffin | DeAndre Jordan | Proj Starter | Tony Parker | Danny Green | Kawhi Leonard | Tim Duncan | Tiago Splitter | |
| Opp. Season | 11 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 13 | Opp. Season | 2 | 16 | 28 | 17 | 11 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 7 | Opp. Last 7 | ||||||
L.A. Clippers
After Game 1, the Clippers were everyone’s favorite to challenge the Warriors in the West. After Game 2, it’s now the Spurs. It just goes to show that we shouldn’t put too much stock into a single game in the series. The Clippers need to pick up a rare road win in San Antonio, whether it be in Game 3, 4, or 6. Vegas has the Clippers listed as 4-point underdogs with their team total set at 100 points. Chris Paul is obviously a terrific player, but I will be fading him tonight in cash games, as I don’t like his matchup (Kawhi Leonard) or his price point.
Opponent Breakdown (San Antonio)
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.9 (Rank: 3)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 3
Rebounding Differential Rank: 9
Elite Plays
Blake Griffin (FD: $10200, DK: $9900 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 28.1)
Griffin has been terrific in the first two games of the series, averaging 27 points, 12 rebounds, and 8 assists per contest. The Spurs don’t have anyone that can keep up with him in the open floor and he has shown his ability to make plays for his teammates. Griffin is cheaper than his teammate, Chris Paul, and is the better fantasy play of the two.
DeAndre Jordan (FD: $9300, DK: $8600 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 13.4)
Jordan has played well so far in this series, scoring 33 and 43 fantasy points. Unfortunately, he has fallen short of value expectations. It’s tough to spend a premium on Jordan in a matchup where he can’t dominate the paint. The Spurs were ranked 13th against centers and 9th in rebounding differential this season. All that said, Jordan is a terrific tournament play tonight.
Secondary Plays
Chris Paul (FD: $10800, DK: $10100 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 23.6)
Matt Barnes (FD: $4900, DK: $4800 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 14.6)
San Antonio
The Spurs got their split in L.A. and now have a chance to go up 3-1 in this series if they can take care of business at home. They are listed as 4-point favorites tonight with their team total set at 104 points. Tony Parker is questionable for tonight’s game, but it’s hard to see him sitting out a playoff game. If Parker is unable to suit up, Patty Mills and Manu Ginobili would both see a sizable fantasy boost.
Opponent Breakdown (L.A. Clippers)
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.1 (Rank: 16)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 15
Rebounding Differential Rank: 16
Elite Plays
Kawhi Leonard (FD: $8400, DK: $8800 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 23)
Leonard has scored 33 and 39 fantasy points in the first two games of the series. While that is terrific production, he still hasn’t hit his stride. He should see upwards of 40 minutes tonight, which more than makes up for his elevated price point. He is the premier option at small forward tonight and is a strong play in all league formats. During the regular season, the Clippers were ranked 28th against small forwards.
Tim Duncan (FD: $8000, DK: $8000 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 22.4)
Duncan played a whopping 44 minutes in Game 2, finishing with 28 points, 11 rebounds, 4 assists, and 2 steals. He is capable of some huge fantasy outings when he sees extended action. While I don’t expect him to see more than 36-38 minutes tonight, that’s more than enough time for him to reach value. He remains an elite play, even at his elevated price point.
Secondary Plays
Manu Ginobili (FD: $4100, DK: $5200 / MPG: 23 / Usage Rate: 23.6)