NBA Grind Down: Friday, January 17th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!
Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review
Click ‘Stat Chart’ Buttons Below for Pop-Ups of Essential Game-Specific Statistics including Defense vs. Position and Pace
L.A.Clippers at New York
- Vegas Line – No Lines Set for This Game Yet
- L.A.Clippers Proj. Starters – Collison-Redick-Dudley-Griffin-Jordan
- New York Proj. Starters – Felton-Shumpert-Anthony-Bargnani-Chandler
L.A.Clippers
What’s up Grinders, happy Friday! We have 12 games to get to tonight so let’s hop right into the analysis. The Clippers travel to New York to take on the Knicks who are playing in a back to back situation after getting crushed by the Pacers last night. Vegas has the Clippers favored by 4 points in tonight’s game and the total has already moved up 5 points to 202. That means that there should be quite a few points scored in this one.
- Blake Griffin – Even though the Knicks have been very good against PF’s this season, considering his matchup is against Bargnani, it’s hard not to like Griffin tonight. He is much quicker and much stronger than Bargnani and should be able to score easily in the post. The only concern here is that Bargnani may pull Griffin away from the basket which could hurt his defensive rebounding numbers, but that’s not enough to affect my judgement on Griffin tonight.
- J.J. Redick – Redick was on fire in the Clippers last game and ended posting over 45 fantasy points. He should have some success again tonight against the Knicks who have not defended the SG position well. I think Darren Collison also has some value tonight, but his price is so different across the industry that he is more of a site-specific play.
New York
The Knicks should play much better than they did last night. They get to play at home in front of their own crowd and get to face a much less intimidating defense. The Clippers have defended SF’s well this season, but the rest of their DvP rankings leave the Knicks with some solid matchups to exploit. Amar’e Stoudemire may sit out tonight after rolling his ankle. This would give a small fantasy boost to Andrea Bargnani and Kenyon Martin.
- Raymond Felton – If you look at the DvP rankings over the last 15 days, you will see that the Clippers have been much worse at defending the position since Chris Paul went down with his injury. Felton has been a nice scorer for the Knicks lately and I like his matchup against Collison. I think Carmelo Anthony is a bit overpriced considering his tough matchup and Felton will likely be the only Knicks player that I use in cash games tonight.
Charlotte at Orlando
- Vegas Line – Charlotte -1.5, 188 Over/Under
- Charlotte Proj. Starters – Walker-Henderson-Kidd-Gilchrist-McRoberts-Jefferson
- Orlando Proj. Starters – Nelson-Oladipo-Harkless-Harris-Davis
Charlotte
The Bobcats and Magic game is expected to be close, but it’s also expected to be played at a slow pace. The Magic’s defense has been awful over the last 15 days as you can see by the many blue DvP rankings above. While that bodes well for the Bobcats fantasy value, there aren’t many options that really stick out to me in this one. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist makes an interesting value play, but he has limited upside. Kemba Walker has a decent matchup, but typically plays much better at home.
- Al Jefferson – The one play that I do like here is Jefferson. Vucevic is still dealing with concussion symptoms and it doesn’t sound like he is going to get cleared to play for tonight’s game. That means that Jefferson will be defended by a combo of Glen Davis and Jason Maxiell. He has a nice size and skill advantage over both of them.
Orlando
The Magic will likely be without Nikola Vucevic again tonight, but they are expecting to get Arron Afflalo back. While this does hurt the value of Victor Oladipo a little, he will still likely be in the starting lineup and he should still play big minutes as long as he doesn’t get into foul trouble. The Bobcats have really struggled to defend the PG and Center positions this season and I think both Nelson and Davis could be in for big nights.
- Jameer Nelson – Nelson is always a tough play because the PG position is so stacked. That said, he has a great matchup against Kemba and he is coming off of strong performances in back to back games. Nelson has a good shot of reaching 30 FP’s in this favorable matchup.
- Glen Davis – With Vucevic likely out again, that means Davis will slide over and start at Center again tonight. That’s good news for his fantasy value because McRoberts is a much better defender than Jefferson. Davis makes a nice cash game play, he has been a very reliable option for 25+ fantasy points each night.
Miami at Philadelphia
- Vegas Line – Miami -10, 212 Over/Under
- Miami Proj. Starters – Cole-Wade-James-Battier-Bosh
- Philadelphia Proj. Starters – Carter-Williams-Anderson-Turner-Young-Hawes
Miami
The big story with the Heat right now is LeBron James. After being called out for coasting through the season, he told everyone to just watch the type of numbers that he would put up against the Wizards. Well we all watched and I don’t think anyone was too impressed. I think they took that line out of context. I think he really said “Just watch the type of numbers I put up against the Sixers.” Obviously, we all know how bad this Sixers defense is. Everyone on the Heat is in play, but I will focus my lineups around one player in particular:
- LeBron James – There are two big reasons to target him tonight. The first, and most obvious, is the fact that he is playing the Sixers who own the worst defense in the league. The second is the fact that he really wants to come out and prove all of his critics wrong. After being called out for coasting through the season, LeBron wanted to have a huge game against the Wizards. That motivation did not dissipate after only one game. This could be the best game of the year for Bron.
Philadelphia
The Sixers are in a much less favorable position than you may think. The Heat own a very solid defense, they play at a much slower pace, and they are double-digit favorites against the Sixers. The one position that I would possibly target here is the PG position, but if and only if, Mario Chalmers is out again tonight. It sounds like Chalmers will give it a go though so that hurts the value of MCW. Spencer Hawes makes sense as a GPP play, but for the most part I will be targeting LeBron and only LeBron in this game.
Minnesota at Toronto
- Vegas Line – Toronto -2, 205.5 Over/Under
- Minnesota Proj. Starters – Rubio-Martin-Brewer-Love-Pekovic
- Toronto Proj. Starters – Lowry-DeRozan-Ross-Johnson-Valanciunas
Minnesota
The Wolves and Raptors play with two contrasting styles. The Wolves like to push the pace and win with offense and the Raptors like to slow the game down and win with defense. In these situations, it makes sense to give a small boost to the slower paced team and a small decrease to the fantasy value of the faster paced team. The Wolves matchups leave much to be desired tonight as Kevin Martin has the only favorable matchup. I think Kevin Love is in play though, he has proven time and time again that he is matchup-proof.
Toronto
The Raptors are in a nice spot tonight. The Wolves like to push the pace and that boosts the Raptors fantasy value quite a bit. Looking at the Wolves’ DvP rankings, the only two positions that you want to avoid against them are PF’s and Centers. That works out well because Johnson and Valanciunas have Patterson fighting them for minutes. Terrence Ross makes an interesting value play on sites where he is close to minimum salary.
- Kyle Lowry – Lowry can do everything on the floor well which really helps his fantasy value. Lowry has topped 40 FP’s in 5 of his last 8 games and has a good shot of topping that mark again tonight against the Wolves who are ranked 22nd against PG’s this season. Lowry has a favorable matchup against Rubio and he should be able to exploit that all game long.
- DeMar DeRozan – I seem to suggest using DeRozan often, yet I can never find a way to get him in my lineups. I always regret it to because he has really been playing well. This may be hard to believe, but DeRozan has topped 35 fantasy points in each of his last 8 games and no that is not a typo.
Chicago at Washington
- Vegas Line – Washington -4.5, 184 Over/Under
- Chicago Proj. Starters – Hinrich-Butler-Dunleavy-Boozer-Noah
- Washington Proj. Starters – Wall-Beal-Ariza-Hilario-Gortat
Chicago
The Bulls travel to Washington in what should be a low scoring game. The good news for the Bulls players is that Thibodeau is their coach and he loves to just run his players ragged. Don’t believe me? Jimmy Butler played an insane 60 minutes in the Bulls triple-OT game the other night. That means he sat out a total of 3 minutes out of a total of 63. I will likely be avoiding the bigs here though, the Wizards have defended the paint well this season.
- Jimmy Butler – I like Butler for the same reason listed above, he is going to get minutes, and lots of them. He is averaging close to 40 minutes per game in regulation since the Deng trade and he should see around that many again tonight. His price is affordable across the board and he makes a solid cash game play.
Washington
The Wizards have a very tough matchup tonight against the Bulls. Not only do the Bulls play at one of the slowest paces in the league, but they also rank in the top 8 at defending PG’s, SG’s, PF’s, and Centers this season. The one favorable matchup that you could possibly exploit here is for Trevor Ariza. He is priced fairly on most sites and has decent upside in this matchup thanks to his ability to fill up all areas of the stat sheet.