NBA Grind Down: Friday, January 31st
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!
Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review
Click ‘Stat Chart’ Buttons Below for Pop-Ups of Essential Game-Specific Statistics including Defense vs. Position and Pace
Milwaukee at Orlando
- Vegas Line – Orlando -5, 192 Over/Under
- Milwaukee Proj. Starters – Knight-Antetokounmpo-Middleton-Ilyasova-Henson
- Orlando Proj. Starters – Nelson-Oladipo-Afflalo-Davis-Vucevic
Milwaukee
The Bucks and Magic combine for a pace of around 95 possessions per game which is below the league average. This game should be played at a fairly slow pace, but the good news is that neither of these defenses are very good in the half court. Coach Larry Drew has said that he may roll out a much smaller lineup tonight in order to match up with the Magic. He is thinking about starting Knight, Wolters, and Giannis to match up with the 3 guards of the Magic. I don’t think this gives Nate Wolters enough fantasy value to warrant consideration though.
The Magic have really been struggling defensively lately, but finally have the anchor of their defense back so I expect them to get better at defending the paint going forward. With John Henson and Larry Sanders both splitting minutes, neither look like a good play tonight against Vucevic. Giannis aka the alphabet makes a nice value play tonight and is the only option that I would consider on the Bucks that’s not named Brandon Knight.
- Brandon Knight – Knight is in a very favorable position tonight. We have seen his ability to post those 40 and 50 fantasy point performances and I think he makes a great GPP play tonight. The Magic are ranked 23rd against PG’s over the last 15 days and Knight should be able to exploit his height advantage over the smaller Nelson.
Orlando
The Magic are playing a very slow paced team in the Bucks. Not only that, but now that Nikola Vucevic is back in the lineup, it really squeezes the minutes from quite a few different players. In Vucevic’s first game back, the Magic moved Tobias Harris to the bench which really hurts his fantasy value. It also hurts both Arron Afflalo and Victor Oladipo because Harris will now cut into their minutes when he comes off the bench.
All of that said, I do think there are a couple of interesting plays on the Magic. The Bucks are ranked 15th or worse against every position on the floor over the last 15 days and have struggled to defend opposing bigs all season long. Glen Davis is cheap on DS, SS, and DK and makes a nice cash game play.
- Nikola Vucevic – Vucevic really played well in limited minutes in his first game back from his concussion. While he only played 20 minutes, coach Vaughn said that Vucevic will not be on any kind of minute restriction so I expect that number to go up tonight against the Bucks. He should have his way down low on both ends of the floor.
Atlanta at Philadelphia
- Vegas Line – Atlanta -4, 211 Over/Under
- Atlanta Proj. Starters – Teague-Korver-Carroll-Millsap-Ayon
- Philadelphia Proj. Starters – Carter-Williams-Anderson-Turner-Young-Hawes
Atlanta
The Hawks win the matchup of the night award as they get to face the struggling Sixers. The Sixers not only lead the league in pace of play, but they also own the league’s worst defense. As we all know at this point in the season, you want to heavily target the team that is facing the Sixers. Jeff Teague could make his return back into the lineup tonight, but he is listed as a game-time decision so make sure to check the injury news closer to tipoff for an update on his status.
The Sixers are ranked 27th or worse against every position on the floor this season. There is always a lot of talk about their defensive inefficiencies down low, but they are equally bad on the perimeter as well. Kyle Korver and DeMarre Carroll both make great plays tonight, but are site specific plays as their prices vary across the industry.
- Paul Millsap – Millsap is one of my favorite plays across the board tonight. Not only is Millsap a great scorer, but he can rebounds, pass, and block shots as well. This is the perfect type of game for Millsap to succeed in and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him easily top the 40 fantasy point mark tonight.
- Jeff Teague / Shelvin Mack – Whichever player gets the start at PG tonight should be in your lineups. If Teague gets the start, throw him in there. If Teague has to sit out, Mack becomes the top value play on the board tonight.
Philadelphia
The Sixers have a pretty decent matchup tonight and luckily for them they are only 4 point underdogs. The Hawks are a team that doesn’t mind to push the pace so I expect there to be a lot of fantasy points to go around in this one. Michael Carter-Williams has been a tough player to predict this season, but his production seems tied to the availability of Tony Wroten. When Wroten is in the lineup, he takes away from MCW’s ball-handling and even takes a few minutes away. At this point, I am going to continue avoid MCW unless he is in an extremely favorable matchup.
The Hawks have really struggled to defend SF’s and Centers this season and have been pretty average at defending SG’s and PF’s. I think Thaddeus Young offers some decent fantasy value tonight, but he is a boom or bust type of player and I like him more as a GPP play than a cash game play. Evan Turner makes a nice play as he has back to back 35+ FP games and should be able to attack the rim as the Hawks are short on rim protectors right now.
- Spencer Hawes – With Pero Antic out, the Hawks have to roll with a combination of Ayon and Brand out at Center. Hawes has a nice matchup in either scenario. Ayon will have an extremely difficult time defending him on the perimeter and Brand should have a tough time defending him in the post.
Memphis at Minnesota
- Vegas Line – Memphis -1, 191.5 Over/Under
- Memphis Proj. Starters – Conley-Lee-Prince-Randolph-Gasol
- Minnesota Proj. Starters – Rubio-Martin-Brewer-Love-Pekovic
Memphis
The Grizzlies travel to Minnesota to take on the Wolves and once again we have a Grizzlies game with a total set in the low 190’s. The Grizzlies have really turned up their defense ever since Marc Gasol was re-inserted into the lineup. This matchup bodes well for the Grizzlies, but not so much for the Wolves. Even in a good matchup, it’s tough to predict the individual fantasy values for the Grizzlies because they have quite a few players that contribute offensively. I don’t mind Marc Gasol down low, Zach Randolph has a good history against Love, and Courtney Lee has been a nice value play as the starting SG. That said, they are all pretty average fantasy options tonight.
Minnesota
The Wolves have an extremely tough matchup tonight. The Grizzlies average 92 possessions per game which is right down there at the very bottom of the league. Not only that, but the Grizzlies own a top 5 defense that is really starting to hit it’s stride. If the Wolves were at full strength, I would probably suggest avoiding them altogether, but the absence of Nikola Pekovic opens the door for both Kevin Love and Ronny Turiaf. Love has shown that he is matchup proof and Turiaf is close to minimum salary across the industry. I will likely be using both of them across my cash lineups tonight.
Oklahoma City at Brooklyn
- Vegas Line – Oklahoma City -3.5, 198.5 Over/Under
- Oklahoma City Proj. Starters – Jackson-Sefolosha-Durant-Ibaka-Perkins
- Brooklyn Proj. Starters – Williams-Anderson-Johnson-Pierce-Garnett
Oklahoma City
The Thunder take their 9-game winning streak into Brooklyn tonight in what is expected to be a very good basketball game. The Nets have really turned their season around and have won 5 of their last 6 games. The Nets resurgence has been all about defense, they have really picked up their defensive pressure and are ranked 6th or better against SG’s, SF’s, PF’s, and Centers over the last 15 days. That doesn’t exactly bode well for the upside of the Thunder. However, there are a few spots where you can plug in some Thunder players tonight. Reggie Jackson is under $9k on SS tonight. Serge Ibaka has a nice price tag on a couple of sites as well.
- Kevin Durant – It doesn’t matter who Durant is facing right now. He went into Miami and went up against LeBron the other night and had no problem scoring. Call me crazy, but I don’t think the Nets have any on-ball defenders that are anywhere near the caliber of LeBron. You are going to have to pay for Durant tonight, but he is a great place to start your team if you can surround him with some solid value plays.
Brooklyn
The Nets also have a less than appealing fantasy matchup tonight. The Thunder have also picked up their defensive efficiency during this winning streak. Over the last 15 days, the Thunder are ranked 8th or better at defending SG’s, SF’s, and Centers. If the bad matchup wasn’t enough, the Nets are turning into a fantasy nightmare at this point. They have so many contributors on their team that it’s hurting their individual fantasy numbers. That may be great for their team, but it’s bad for their fantasy value. There aren’t any recommended fantasy options tonight on the Nets.
Sacramento at Dallas
- Vegas Line – No Lines Set for This Game Yet
- Sacramento Proj. Starters – Thomas-Thornton-Gay-Thompson-Cousins
- Dallas Proj. Starters – Calderon-Ellis-Marion-Nowitzki-Dalembert
Sacramento
The Kings travel to Dallas to take on the Mavericks in a game that should be one of the faster paced games of the evening. The Mavericks are favored by 9 points tonight which teeters on the edge of being a potential blowout. It sounds like Rudy Gay will be a full go for tonight’s game, but Coach Malone said that he is not optimistic about DeMarcus Cousins playing.
The two potential plays that I see here are Isaiah Thomas and Rudy Gay. Both have favorable matchups and will both have to pick up the slack offensively if Cousins ends up sitting out. I see them more as GPP plays than as cash game plays though.
Dallas
The Mavericks are in a very favorable matchup tonight. The Kings love to push the ball as much as the Mavericks do and the Kings will likely be without their best rim protector in DeMarcus Cousins. The Kings have not been good defensively this season, they are ranked 20th or worse against every position on the floor except for the Center position. Not only do the Mavericks have a great matchup, but they will be without Shawn Marion which opens the door for Jae Crowder and Vince Carter as value plays. Crowder will be a very popular play tonight and for good reason as he will draw the start.
- Monta Ellis – Monta is coming off of back to back games in which he has scored under 20 fantasy points. I would be absolutely shocked if he didn’t top that mark tonight against the Kings. Monta is at his best in transition and the Kings are one of the worst transition defenses that you can find. Not only that, but Marcus Thornton doesn’t know what defense is. Expect Monta to bounce back nicely tonight.
- Dirk Nowitzki – Dirk is coming off of a monster game against the Rockets and should continue his hot shooting tonight against the Kings. Most sites have been slow to react to Dirk’s production over the last few games so you can still take him at a discount on a few sites. DraftStreet is probably the one site that I would avoid him on though, he is listed at just under $18k.