NBA Grind Down: Friday, March 14th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-03-14 20:19:18

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NBA Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

Click ‘Stat Chart’ Buttons Below for Pop-Ups of Essential Game-Specific Statistics including Defense vs. Position and Pace

Minnesota at Charlotte

Vegas Line – Minnesota -1, 207.5 Over/Under
Minnesota Proj. Starters – Rubio-Martin-Brewer-Love-Pekovic
Charlotte Proj. Starters – Walker-Henderson-Kidd-Gilchrist-McRoberts-Jefferson

Minnesota

What’s up Grinders, this is a huge night for the industry with big tournaments seemingly on every major DFS site. Make sure to get into as many as you can as the main events for the NBA season are quickly coming to an end.

The first game of the night is between the Wolves and the Bobcats. This game has a high total set at 207.5 points and the Wolves are only favored by 1 point so this should be a close game as well. While the total is high, this is a tough matchup for the Wolves. The Bobcats are ranked 5th in the league in points allowed per game and have really only struggled to defend opposing PG’s. The Bocbats are ranked 10th or better against SG’s, SF’s, and PF’s which really hurts the value of Kevin Martin and Corey Brewer.

Kevin Love is basically matchup proof though and I have a hard time seeing McRoberts keeping Love off the glass. He should have another solid game, but it may be hard for him to hit value as he is the most expensive player in the industry tonight. Ricky Rubio has a decent matchup against Kemba Walker, but Rubio’s inability to knock down shots really limits his upside.

Nikola Pekovic – Pek is supposedly on a 20 minute restriction, but Pek has averaged around 27 minutes per game since coming back from his injury. He’s even played 33 minutes in one of the games. While the Bobcats have defended the Center position well over the last 15 days, Al Jefferson is not a great defender and Pek has a huge strength advantage over him down low.

Charlotte

The Bobcats have a very favorable matchup tonight against the Wolves. The Bobcats are typically a slower-paced team, but should see a few extra possessions tonight against the Wolves who are giving up 102.4 points per game which is the 10th most in the NBA. Al Jefferson has been on a tear through the NBA, but I don’t love the matchup for him tonight. Pek is one of the best big men defenders in the league and he should be able to push him off the block and make Big Al catch the ball 15+ feet from the hoop.

The other Bobcats’ starters are in play though. This could be a nice time to buy low on Gerald Henderson. This is his second game back from injury and most sites have him listed at a very affordable price. Josh McRoberts also provides decent upside tonight. While Love is a great rebounder, he is not a great defender and McRoberts can knock down open shots.

Kemba Walker – Walker is one of my top plays tonight. He has great home splits this season and has great splits against the Wolves. Walker should be able to push the pace and makes some plays in transition. He’s a bit cheaper than some of the other top PG’s tonight, but has just as much upside as anyone not named Chris Paul.

Washington at Orlando

Vegas Line – Washington -4.5, 203 Over/Under
Washington Proj. Starters – Wall-Beal-Ariza-Booker-Gortat
Orlando Proj. Starters – Nelson-Oladipo-Afflalo-O’Quinn-Vucevic

Washington

The Wizards have a favorable matchup tonight against the Magic. The Magic have given up an average of 102.3 points per game this season and are ranked 15th or worse against all five positions on the floor in terms of fantasy points allowed. The two positions that the Magic have done a decent job of defending are the PG and Center positions. With John Wall having much better splits at home, he may be a bit over-priced for his matchup tonight. I do like Marcin Gortat though, he has been very good ever since Nene went down.

Bradley Beal – Beal continues to quietly post around 25 FP’s per game. He has struggled with his shot at times this season, but makes a great play tonight on non-efficiency sites. The Magic have surrendered the 6th most FP’s to opposing SG’s this season.

Drew Gooden – If you are looking for a very deep sleeper pick that is minimum salary across the board, Gooden might be your guy. He has topped 16 FP’s in each of his last 4 games and should see around 20 minutes of playing time against a weak defense.

Orlando

The Magic have been a tough team to predict lately. Now that Arron Afflalo is back in the mix and Coach Vaughn is rolling with a starting lineup that features both Maurice Harkless and Kyle O’Quinn, the Magic players have all been very average fantasy options. They have too many players that are all seeing a good chunk of playing time night in and night out.

The Wizards have actually played some pretty good defense this season. They are holding their opponents to under 100 points per game and are ranked 17th or better against all five positions on the floor. I don’t love any of the Magic players here, but Maurice Harkless continues to make a nice punt play at the SF position. He has topped 24 FP’s in 4 of his last 5 games.

Indiana at Philadelphia

Vegas Line – Indiana -16, 205 Over/Under
Indiana Proj. Starters – Hill-Stephenson-George-West-Hibbert
Philadelphia Proj. Starters – Carter-Williams-Anderson-Thompson-Young-Sims

Indiana

The Pacers travel to Philly tonight to take on the Sixers. The good news is that this game is at least being played in Philly, but the bad news is that the line is still at 16. We seem to go through this every time the Sixers are on the schedule, but again we have to ask ourselves: Can the Pacers’ starters hit value in only 3 quarters of play? The Sixers could very well keep this within striking distance, but we can’t count on that.

The good news is that the Pacers are projected to score 110 points tonight which is 12 points higher than their season average. I think all five starters are in play here, but this may not be the right night to stack against the Sixers because the Pacers like to dictate the tempo of the game and they have to play another game tomorrow night and Coach Vogel isn’t going to wear out his starters if he doesn’t have to.

Lance Stephenson – Like I said above, all of the starters are in play tonight, but Stephenson is probably the best bang for your buck. His price is depressed across the industry and this type of game suits his style of play perfectly. In his first meeting against the Sixers this season, he posted an 18/5/3/1 line which is good enough to hit value on most sites. He should build on those numbers tonight.

Philadelphia

Even though this Pacers’ defense has been subpar over the last two weeks, I have a hard time finding any Sixers’ options that I will be using tonight. The Pacers are huge favorites and the Sixers are only projected to score 94 points which is well below their season average. This is a bad matchup and there are plenty of other teams that you should be targeting instead.

Memphis at Toronto

Vegas Line – EVEN SPREAD, 186.5 OVER/UNDER
Memphis Proj. Starters – Conley-Lee-Prince-Randolph-Gasol
Toronto Proj. Starters – Lowry-Derozan-Ross-Johnson-Valanciunas

Memphis

Anytime I see a total that is in the 180’s, it makes me want to move on to the next game. But, in the Grind Down, we cover every team and every matchup regardless of their fantasy appeal. The Grizzlies and Raptors are two of the slowest paced teams in the league and are 2 of the top 4 defenses in the league. This game is going to be won on the defensive end of the floor. While I will be avoiding most players in this matchup, Marcy Marc has been very solid of late.

Marc Gasol – Gasol has been the model of consistency. He hasn’t scored less than 30 FP’s in almost a month. He has played well regardless of the matchup and he makes a nice cash game play tonight. Valanciunas and the Raptors have a pretty stout front-court, but Gasol should continue his 30+ FP streak.

Toronto

The Raptors have been playing some great basketball and while I like their chances to win tonight, I don’t love their fantasy potential. The Grizzlies are holding opponents to less than 95 points per game and are ranked 14th or better against all five positions on the floor in terms of fantasy points allowed. Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan should be avoided tonight. Amir Johnson could make a nice value play though, he has scored 35 FP’s in back to back games and has been very consistent over the past 10 games.

Phoenix at Boston

Vegas Line – Phoenix -4.5, 207 Over/Under
Phoenix Proj. Starters – Dragic-Bledsoe-Green-Frye-Plumlee
Boston Proj. Starters – Pressey-Bayless-Green-Humphries-Bass

Phoenix

We will likely see the Suns jump up in the pace of play rankings as Eric Bledsoe is a one man fast break. Now that he is back in the lineup and playing alongside Goran Dragic, the Suns will really look to push the tempo. This game has a very high total, but the Celtics have actually been better on the defensive end of the floor than most people think. They have held their opponents to less than 100 points per game and are ranked 21st or better against all five positions on the floor.

The story for the Suns tonight is Eric Bledsoe. We saw how big of an impact he had last game and how much his play affected the fantasy value of both Goran Dragic and Gerald Green. I think both should be avoided tonight until we get a more clear picture of how they are all going to play together. Bledsoe makes a nice GPP play though, especially if he is inserted into the starting lineup.

Boston

The Celtics have a very favorable matchup against the uptempo Suns. Rajon Rondo will be back in the lineup tonight after sitting out their last game to rest. This ends the value of Phil Pressey as a punt option. Kris Humphries has averaged over 30 FP’s over his last 3 games and is under-priced on most sites tonight. While his minutes aren’t guaranteed, I love the price and the matchup.

Rajon Rondo – Rondo has topped 33 FP’s in 5 of his last 7 games and I still think he is under-priced across the industry. When Rondo is playing to his full potential, there are few better fantasy options at PG. Look for Rondo to push the pace and create some open shots for his teammates tonight. It also doesn’t hurt that Rondo has developed a decent 3-point shot.