NBA Grind Down: Friday, May 15th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!
Note: Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NBA Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review.
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Atlanta at Washington – 7:00 PM ET
- Vegas Line – Washington -2.5, 197 Over/Under
- Atlanta Proj. Starters – Teague-Korver-Carroll-Millsap-Horford
- Washington Proj. Starters – Sessions-Beal-Pierce-Hilario-Gortat
| Atlanta | Washington | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 197 |  | Vegas Total | 197 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 2.5 | Vegas Sprd | -2.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 97.3 | Team Proj. | 99.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.80 | Team Pace | 97.36 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Jeff Teague | Kyle Korver | DeMarre Carroll | Paul Millsap | Al Horford | Proj Starter | Ramon Sessions | Bradley Beal | Paul Pierce | Nene Hilario | Marcin Gortat | |
| Opp. Season | 14 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | Opp. Season | 16 | 16 | 12 | 12 | 5 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 5 | Opp. Last 7 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 3 | |
Atlanta
The Hawks have a chance to close out their series against the Wizards tonight with a win in Washington. They were able to close out their first-round series in six on the road and they’ll look to do the same tonight. Vegas has the Hawks listed as 2.5-point underdogs in what is expected to be a very competitive game. The starting five are all in play here.
Opponent Breakdown (Washington)
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.6 (Rank: 9)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 5
Rebounding Differential Rank: 3
Elite Plays
Paul Millsap (FanDuel: $8800, DraftKings: $8400 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 23.6)
Millsap has now scored less than 40 fantasy points in each of his last three games, scoring only 21 in Game 5. Everyone is going to be off of him tonight, which makes him my favorite tournament play on the board. He’s in play in cash games too, but Nene Hilario and Zach Randolph are the chalk plays at the position. Millsap has already topped the 45 fantasy point mark five times in the postseason and something tells me that he’ll have a big outing tonight in Game 6.
Jeff Teague (FD: $7200, DK: $7200 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 24.9)
Most people will elect to spend up at point guard and take Stephen Curry tonight, but I like taking the cheaper route with Jeff Teague. He has played well in this series, scoring at least 37 fantasy points in two of the last three games. Teague struggled in Game 5, but he is in a good bounce-back spot tonight in Game 6. He should push for 35+ minutes of action in a game that the Hawks will do everything that they can to win.
Secondary Plays
Al Horford (FD: $7900, DK: $8200 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 22.3)
DeMarre Carroll (FD: $6800, DK: $6700 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 16.6)
Kyle Korver (FD: $5800, DK: $6000 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 14.2)
Dennis Schroder (FD: $4400, DK: $4600 / MPG: 20 / Usage Rate: 27)
Washington
The Wizards played the Hawks tough in Game 5, losing on a buzzer-beater after failing to box out Al Horford. They have to be kicking themselves for the mistake, but they should be ready to play tonight in Game 6. They are in a must-win situation tonight at home. Vegas has the Wizards listed as 2.5-point favorites with their team total set at 100 points.
Opponent Breakdown (Atlanta)
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.2 (Rank: 5)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 7
Rebounding Differential Rank: 27
Elite Plays
Bradley Beal (FD: $7700, DK: $8400 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 22.2)
Even with John Wall back in the lineup, Beal still managed to score 40 fantasy points in Game 5. The Wizards now get their turn to host a game on their home floor and with their backs against the wall, Beal should see 42-45 minutes of playing time. His price on FanDuel is very playable, making him close to a must-start tonight. He’s also in play on DraftKings, but the expensive price tag could justify a fade.
Paul Pierce (FD: $5100, DK: $5800 / MPG: 26 / Usage Rate: 20.1)
There are a number of different routes you can take at small forward tonight. Pierce is a logical choice, as he has played well throughout the playoffs and the Wizards may lean on him in a must-win game at home. Pierce has also seen an uptick in minutes, which is always a plus. He needs 25-29 fantasy points to reach value tonight, a feat that he has accomplished three times in his last nine games.
Nene Hilario (FD: $4000, DK: $4800 / MPG: 25 / Usage Rate: 22)
Hilario has been the lone source of value at the power forward position in this particular slate of games He was awful in the first two games of the series, but he’s bounced back nicely, scoring 35, 24, and 27 fantasy points in his last three. At his price point, he’s close to a must play, as it’s tough to find a better value play on the board. He’s the chalk play at power forward tonight on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
Secondary Plays
John Wall (FD: $9500, DK: $8700 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 25.4)
Otto Porter (FD: $5100, DK: $5700 / MPG: 19 / Usage Rate: 15.5)
Golden State at Memphis – 9:30 PM ET
- Vegas Line – Golden State -5, 193.5 Over/Under
- Golden State Proj. Starters – Curry-Thompson-Barnes-Green-Bogut
- Memphis Proj. Starters – Conley-Lee-Allen-Randolph-Gasol
| Golden State | Memphis | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 193 |  | Vegas Total | 193 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -5.0 | Vegas Sprd | 5.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 99.3 | Team Proj. | 94.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 94.32 | Team Pace | 94.40 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Stephen Curry | Klay Thompson | Harrison Barnes | Draymond Green | Andrew Bogut | Proj Starter | Mike Conley | Courtney Lee | Tony Allen | Zach Randolph | Marc Gasol | |
| Opp. Season | 7 | 7 | 9 | 4 | 2 | Opp. Season | 6 | 6 | 10 | 22 | 16 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 4 | Opp. Last 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 6 | |
Golden State
The Warriors have won the last two games in this series to take a 3-2 advantage. If they can win their third in a row, they will head to the Western Conference Finals and await the winner of the Clippers/Rockets series. The Warriors are listed as 5-point favorites tonight, but we should expect a very close game that comes down to the last few minutes. As crazy as it sounds, I see the Warriors’ players as secondary options tonight. All five starters have had trouble reaching value consistently in this series.
Opponent Breakdown (Memphis)
Points Allowed Per Game: 95.2 (Rank: 2)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 4
Rebounding Differential Rank: 12
Elite Plays
NONE
Secondary Plays
Stephen Curry (FD: $10100, DK: $10400 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 28.4)
Draymond Green (FD: $8000, DK: $7900 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 17.2)
Klay Thompson (FD: $7100, DK: $7400 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 27.3)
Harrison Barnes (FD: $4300, DK: $4800 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 14.8)
Memphis
The Grizzlies face an elimination game tonight at home, which can’t be what they were hoping for after taking a 2-1 lead early in the series. Tony Allen is expected to play tonight, although he says that he is only 60% healthy. His presence does hurt the appeal of Courtney Lee and Jeff Green, but neither player has been particularly good in this series anyway.
Opponent Breakdown (Golden State)
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.5 (Rank: 14)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 1
Rebounding Differential Rank: 12
Elite Plays
Marc Gasol (FD: $9000, DK: $8500 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 24.7)
Marc Gasol and Dwight Howard have been my go-to plays at center in cash games. Both have been very good during the postseason and both provide a very high floor. Al Horford is cheaper than Gasol and offers similar upside, but he has a much lower floor. Gasol has scored at least 38 fantasy points in every game but one so far this postseason. He is the chalk play tonight at center.
Zach Randolph (FD: $7200, DK: $7600 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 24.2)
Randolph has been inconsistent so far this postseason, but you have to like the upside that he provides at his price point. Randolph has scored at least 34 fantasy points in three of his last five games and he should see all of the minutes that he can handle in a must-win game at home. He’s a strong play in both cash games and tournaments tonight.
Mike Conley (FD: $5800, DK: $6000 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 23.8)
Conley hasn’t played great in this series, but he has scored at least 25 fantasy points in three of his last four games. His minutes are also trending in the right direction, as he has played 33 minutes in each of the last two games. He could see 35+ minutes tonight in a must-win Game 6 at home. If that happens, I like his chances to top the 30 fantasy point mark for the first time in this series.
Secondary Plays
Courtney Lee (FD: $3800, DK: $4700 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 15.2)