NBA Grind Down: Friday, May 1st & Saturday, May 2nd
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!
Note: Fantasy point averages listed use FanDuel scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NBA scoring system, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel review.
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Atlanta at Brooklyn – 8:00 PM ET
- Vegas Line – Atlanta -4, 200.5 Over/Under
- Atlanta Proj. Starters – Teague-Korver-Carroll-Millsap-Horford
- Brooklyn Proj. Starters – Williams-Johnson-Bogdanovic-Young-Lopez
| Atlanta | Brooklyn | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 200.5 |  | Vegas Total | 200.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -4.0 | Vegas Sprd | 4.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 102.3 | Team Proj. | 98.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.35 | Team Pace | 95.35 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Jeff Teague | Kyle Korver | DeMarre Carroll | Paul Millsap | Al Horford | Proj Starter | Deron Williams | Joe Johnson | Bojan Bogdanovic | Thaddeus Young | Brook Lopez | |
| Opp. Season | 15 | 24 | 7 | 28 | 19 | Opp. Season | 17 | 13 | 10 | 13 | 11 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 9 | 2 | 13 | 12 | 11 | Opp. Last 7 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 10 | |
Atlanta
The Hawks picked up a ten-point win over the Nets in Game 5 to take a 3-2 series lead. They have yet to establish themselves as the superior team in this series though, and I’m not sure anyone would be surprised to see the Nets force a Game 7. The Hawks are listed as four-point favorites tonight with the total for the game set at 200.5 points. The Hawks seem to have tightened their rotation a bit as the series has progressed, as we have seen huge minutes for all five starters in the last two games. With only two games in this slate, I’m not opposed to using 3-4 Hawks’ players, even in cash games.
Opponent Breakdown (Brooklyn)
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.1 (Rank: 19)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 24
Rebounding Differential Rank: 23
Elite Plays
Al Horford (FanDuel: $7100, DraftKings: $7600 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 22.3)
The center position is extremely thin in this two-game slate. You can pay up for Brook Lopez or DeAndre Jordan, but both are a little overpriced in their respective matchups. Dollar for dollar, Horford is my top play at the position. He has been very inconsistent in this series, but he is coming off of a 50-fantasy point outing in Game 5. He should push for 35+ minutes tonight in Game 6, as the Hawks will do everything they can to avoid having to play in a Game 7.
Jeff Teague (FD: $6500, DK: $7200 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 24.9)
Teague rolled his ankle in Game 5, but he returned to action and is expected to start tonight’s game in Brooklyn. Teague is coming off of his two best games of the series, scoring 40 and 39 fantasy points, respectively. The Nets have struggled to contain opposing point guards all season and Teague could see up to 40 minutes of playing time in tonight’s potential closeout game in Brooklyn.
DeMarre Carroll (FD: $6100, DK: $6900 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 16.6)
After a relatively slow start to the series, Carroll has bounced back nicely with 39 and 41 fantasy points in Games 4 and 5. His price hasn’t changed much around the industry and he is still at a very playable price point on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Carroll has seen an uptick in minutes in the postseason and he’s a player that can fill up all areas of the stat sheet.
Kyle Korver (FD: $5400, DK: $6300 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 14.2)
Dollar for dollar, Korver is the top play at shooting guard in this small two-game slate, at least on FanDuel ($5,200). He has scored at least 29 fantasy points in four of the first five games in the series and he should push for 40+ minutes tonight in Game 6. Korver is a no-brainer on FanDuel and if he continues to produce at the same level that he has been, he will come close to reaching value on DraftKings as well.
Secondary Plays
Paul Millsap (FD: $8300, DK: $8200 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 23.6)
Brooklyn
The Nets have yet to win a game on the road in this series, but they have a chance to force a winner-take-all Game 7 if they can pick up their third home win in a row. The Nets have given the Hawks all that they can handle in this series and Vegas is expected another close game between these two teams tonight. The Nets do have the lowest team total of the four teams in this slate, but there are still some great fantasy options to target here.
Opponent Breakdown (Atlanta)
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.2 (Rank: 5)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 7
Rebounding Differential Rank: 27
Elite Plays
Joe Johnson (FD: $6700, DK: $7500 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 20.9)
Johnson has played well in this series, averaging 35 fantasy points in 42 minutes per contest. He has been a steady source of production, as he has scored at least 31 fantasy points in each of the first five games of the series. He should push for 40+ minutes tonight in a must-win game against the Hawks. Atlanta has yet to slow Johnson down in this series and I don’t expect that to change in Game 6.
Bojan Bogdanovic (FD: $4400, DK: $4600 / MPG: 23 / Usage Rate: 16.8)
Bogdanovic is a solid value play if you are looking to save at the shooting guard/small forward position. He scored 30 and 26 fantasy points in the first two home games in this series and he should push for 35+ minutes tonight in Game 6. His minutes are trending upward, while Thaddeus Young’s minutes are trending in the opposite direction. He’s a decent source of value, which is tough to find in this two-game slate.
Secondary Plays
Brook Lopez (FD: $8800, DK: $8300 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 26.5)
Deron Williams (FD: $7100, DK: $6300 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 22.4)
Thaddeus Young (FD: $6000, DK: $6200 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 21.4)
Jarrett Jack (FD: $4800, DK: $5300 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 22.5)
Alan Anderson (FD: $3600, DK: $3300 / MPG: 24 / Usage Rate: 14.2)
San Antonio at L.A. Clippers – 10:30 PM ET
- Vegas Line – L.A. Clippers -2, 204 Over/Under
- San Antonio Proj. Starters – Parker-Green-Leonard-Duncan-Splitter
- L.A. Clippers Proj. Starters – Paul-Redick-Barnes-Griffin-Jordan
| San Antonio | L.A. Clippers | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 204 |  | Vegas Total | 204 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 2.0 | Vegas Sprd | -2.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 101 | Team Proj. | 103 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.67 | Team Pace | 95.67 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Tony Parker | Danny Green | Kawhi Leonard | Tim Duncan | Tiago Splitter | Proj Starter | Chris Paul | J.J. Redick | Matt Barnes | Blake Griffin | DeAndre Jordan | |
| Opp. Season | 2 | 15 | 29 | 17 | 8 | Opp. Season | 11 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 12 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | Opp. Last 7 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 8 | ||||||
San Antonio
The Spurs have to be kicking themselves after losing two of the their three home games in this series. Then again, this is a veteran ball club with one of the best coaches in NBA history at the helm. They have enough experience to put Game 6 out of their minds, as they gear up for a winner-take-all Game 7 in Los Angeles. This is shaping up to be one of the best games in one of the best series that we will likely see throughout the entire NBA playoffs. Between this game and the Pacquaio/Mayweather fight, I can’t wait for Saturday night.
San Antonio
Opponent Breakdown (L.A. Clippers)
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.1 (Rank: 16)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 15
Rebounding Differential Rank: 16
Elite Plays
Tim Duncan (FD: $8000, DK: $8200 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 22.4)
Kawhi Leonard will be a popular play at small forward, but he has been falling short of value expectations in this series. I’m tempted to take the cheaper route at small forward with DeMarre Carroll and Bojan Bogdanovic. Duncan has not been falling short of his value expectations. In fact, he has been exceeding value regularly in this series. He needs roughly 40 fantasy points to reach value in Game 7, which shouldn’t be too difficult considering the fact that he has averaged 40.4 fantasy points in the first six games.
Boris Diaw (FD: $5200, DK: $5300 / MPG: 24 / Usage Rate: 18.1)
Diaw continues to come off the bench, but he continues to produce as a starter. In fact, he is averaging more fantasy points per game in this series than both Tony Parker and Danny Green. Diaw is averaging 27 fantasy points in 28 minutes per contest through the first six games. At $5,200 / $5,300, he will reach value if he can replicate his averages in the first six games of the series.
Secondary Plays
Kawhi Leonard (FD: $8700, DK: $8600 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 23)
Tony Parker (FD: $4900, DK: $5200 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 24.8)
Manu Ginobili (FD: $3900, DK: $4500 / MPG: 23 / Usage Rate: 23.6)
Danny Green (FD: $3600, DK: $4100 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 17.7)
L.A. Clippers
The Clippers picked up a HUGE win in Game 6 in San Antonio and now get to head back home for a Game 7 against the defending-champion Spurs. If we’ve learned anything in this series, it’s that home-court advantage doesn’t mean much. The road teams are 4-2 so far through the first six games. Vegas is expecting another close, high-scoring game in this one. Game 7’s are typically a bit of a letdown after everyone hypes them up, but I have a hard time seeing either team pulling away from the other on Saturday night.
Opponent Breakdown (San Antonio)
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.9 (Rank: 3)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 3
Rebounding Differential Rank: 9
Elite Plays
Chris Paul (FD: $11000, DK: $10000 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 23.6)
Paul is one of the few players in the NBA that plays his best with everything on the line. He has scored at least 50 fantasy points in three of the first six games in this series. I’m willing to pay a premium for Paul in a winner-take-all Game 7 at home. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Kawhi Leonard on Paul right from the tip-off, but I still like Paul even if that’s the case.
Blake Griffin (FD: $10500, DK: $10200 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 28.1)
The Spurs have no answer for Griffin in this series. He is quicker and more athletic than all of the Spurs’ big men combined. Griffin has scored at least 54 fantasy points in five of the first six games in this series and he has a great chance to reach that mark again in Game 7. This is a winner-take-all situation and Griffin could realistically play around 45 minutes in this one. He is the top fantasy option at any position in this small two-game slate.
Secondary Plays
DeAndre Jordan (FD: $8900, DK: $8000 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 13.4)
J.J. Redick (FD: $6000, DK: $4800 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 20.5)