NBA Grind Down: Friday, November 15th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!
Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NBA Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review
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Milwaukee at Indiana
Milwaukee
If you just look at the matchup, the Bucks are in a terrible spot tonight. The Bucks are one of the slowest paced teams in the league and are facing one of the top defenses in the league. The Pacers are ranked in the top 12 against every single position this season. Vegas has the Pacers favored by 14.5 tonight which is usually awful for fantasy purposes.
Now to the good news, well good news for the Bucks fantasy appeal. Caron Butler and Brandon Knight have both been ruled out for tonight’s game. Add in the injuries to Larry Sanders and Ersan Ilyasova and you can see that there are going to be a ton of minutes opened up. It sounded like the starting lineup would be Wolters, Mayo, Middleton, Henson, and Pachulia, but now it sounds like they are going to bring Henson off of the bench again which I just don’t understand.
Players to Target
- John Henson – Henson should have started the last two games, but for some reason they decided to bring him off the bench. And they have decided to do the same thing tonight. Even though he’s coming off of the bench, Henson should easily reach double-digit rebounds tonight and is one of the better shot blockers in the league. If he can produce anything on offense, it will be a bonus.
- Khris Middleton – Middleton has drawn two starts in a row and has actually been a very good value play. He’s scored 19 and 37 FP’s in those two starts and may get even more minutes tonight now that Butler has been ruled out. Granted, the matchup against the Pacers is a tough one, but he is in play thanks to his minutes and the fact that the Bucks don’t have many other options on offense.
Indiana
While this game looks like it should be everything Pacers, it doesn’t look like a great spot for any individual fantasy players. The Pacers are favored by 14.5 and you know how I feel about potential blowouts. I’m not going to spend top dollar for a player that could easily spend the entire 4th quarter on the bench.
The matchup is definitely favorable, but all of the starters could end up playing less than 30 minutes. While I know that it’s hard to predict blowouts, it’s easy to avoid potential blowouts with so many other options on the schedule. For that reason, I am fading the Pacers tonight.
Chicago at Toronto
Chicago
The Bulls are going to be without Derrick Rose tonight which means Kirk Hinrich will likely step into the starting lineup. His value obviously goes up, but I think you can give a bump to both Jimmy Butler and Luol Deng as well. Both of these guys will likely pick up an extra few minutes with Hinrich playing point and they will both likely have the ball in their hands more often than usual.
The Raptors have been excellent at defending PG’s this season as seen by their #2 rank against PG’s. I don’t know how much value Hinrich will have tonight, but he’s worth a play if he is minimum salary. Anything over that and I think it will be tough for him to make value.
Players to Target
- Luol Deng – Deng is one of the few players that can play 40 minutes per night and never appear to be tired. He may have to play that many tonight with Rose out. Deng has been much more involved in the offense this season and is averaging almost 2 more assists per game this season. I think he makes a nice, safe play in cash games and he has decent upside.
- Jimmy Butler – Butler has scored less than 20 FP’s in three straight games and has had his minutes reduced over those three games. I think we should see those minutes spike back up tonight with Rose out and the fact that he will be guarding one of the Raptors best scorers in Derozan. Butler is cheap ($7,500 on SS) and has nice upside.
Toronto
The Raptors are playing at an extremely slow pace this season (92) and have only averaged 97 points per game. They have a starting five that is full of decent fantasy players and it’s tough to predict which players are going to go off each night. Rudy Gay has picked up his play with over 45 FP’s in each of the last two games though so he makes a nice GPP play.
The Bulls defense hasn’t been as good as it has in year’s past, but inserting Hinrich back in the lineup should help them defensively. This should be a very low scoring game and I just don’t see any great fantasy options on the Raptors tonight.
Philadelphia at Atlanta
Philadelphia
The Sixers are one of the fastest paced teams in the league (102) and are currently the 6th highest scoring team at 105 points per game. Michael Carter-Williams is listed as questionable for this game, but he was seen in a walking boot this morning so don’t be surprised to see him sit out tonight’s game. If that’s the case, Tony Wroten becomes close to a must play across the board. He’s cheap and would have a great upside if MCW can’t play.
The Sixers matchup against the Hawks is a favorable one. The Hawks also like to push the tempo and have given up an average of 101 points per game. The Hawks have really only defended PF’s well, so I would avoid Thaddeus Young tonight, but the rest of the team is in play.
Players to Target
- Evan Turner – Hawes also makes a decent play tonight, but Horford is a pretty solid defender and I like the matchup for Turner more. Turner has been one of the most improved players this season and has actually become a very consistent fantasy player. He’s averaging close to 35 FP’s per game and should have another big night in this uptempo game.
Atlanta
The Hawks are playing with a quick pace (100) and are scoring 103 points per game, both of which rank in the top 10 in the league. They have been a fun team to watch and unlike last season, there are actually quite a few different players that you can target on the Hawks.
The Sixers are giving up the most points of any team at 108 per game. This opens the door for a few different plays on the Hawks tonight. DeMarre Carroll continues to be a solid value play thanks to his minutes and cheap price tag, Kyle Korver could have a big night against a bad defense that leaves too many shooters open, and Paul Millsap has put up some monster games already this season. But my two favorite tonight are Teague and Horford.
Players to Target
- Jeff Teague – Teague may be my top PG play tonight. The Sixers are ranked dead last against PG’s this season giving up an average of 48 FP’s per game. I don’t think it matters who starts at point for the Sixers, either way, Teague should have a field day. He should push the tempo and find some easy buckets both for himself and his teammates.
- Al Horford – Horford has been one of the best centers this season as far as DFS goes. He’s averaging close to 40 FP’s per game and is consistently putting up big numbers. Look for him to post some nice numbers in this one. His price is rising, but you can still play him in this favorable matchup.
Portland at Boston
Portland
- *The Blazers are playing at an average pace (95), yet they are in the top 10 in scoring averaging 102 points per game. They are really playing some great basketball right now and the combo of Lillard, Aldridge, and Batum has been a tough one to stop. Vegas expects this game to be a very close game so expect starters from both teams to receive their usual amount of minutes.
The Celtics have been good at defending PG’s and SF’s this season and that isn’t surprising. Avery Bradley has been guarding opponent’s PG’s and he’s one of the best defenders in the league. The same can be said for Jeff Green. I think that hurts the value of both Damian Lillard and Nicolas Batum, but don’t rule either of them out as GPP plays.
Players to Target
- LaMarcus Aldridge – Aldridge should have a major advantage over the undersized bigs of the Celtics. He should have a height and length advantage that should prove to give him an edge on both ends of the floor. I fully expect Aldridge to put up 20 and 10 tonight with the possibility of a lot more.
Boston
The Celtics have played a lot better than most people have expected and a lot of that has to do with their defense. They are only giving up 95 points per game, but at the same time they are only scoring 94 points per game. The Celtics have been a team full of value plays this season and that’s how I see them again tonight.
The Blazers have been the best team at defending SF’s this season so it could be a very tough night for Jeff Green. He hasn’t been rebounding as well as he should anyway and is an easy fade tonight even with his decent price tag.
Players to Target
- Jordan Crawford – Crawford has really played well in the past two games putting up an average of 35 FP’s per game. We are seeing a side of Crawford that I never thought we would see, he is actually passing the ball and making plays for his teammates. I think he is a little too expensive on DS tonight, but makes a great value play on the other major sites.
- Kelly Olynyk – Olynyk is very cheap across the board and is my favorite play on FD at Center. He is still only $3,900 over there and that is extremely cheap for a guy that should easily reach 20 FP’s.
Charlotte at Cleveland
Charlotte
The Bobcats are at the bottom of the league in both pace of play (94) and points per game (90). They are having a tough time offensively and having Al Jefferson back only muddies the fantasy picture. Kemba Walker has not played great on the road this season and the only bright spot so far has been Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. While I don’t hate the play, he just doesn’t have enough upside to be worthy of consideration tonight.
Cleveland
The Cavs are going to be without Dion Waiters tonight which should open up some big minutes for C.J. Miles, Alonzo Gee, and Jarrett Jack. I expect Miles to get the start and if so, he would be the top option of the three. The Cavs are ranked 27 in the league in scoring at 92 points per game.
The matchup against the Bobcats appears to be a favorable one for both the SF and Center position. The Bobcats rank in the bottom 10 in the league against both of those positions.
Players to Target
- C.J. Miles – Miles is a great scorer that should see a big increase in both minutes and production tonight. He makes a solid value play and is close to minimum salary across the board. I think there is some value in Kyrie Irving as well, but this one might be too low scoring of a game to warrant his price tag.