NBA Grind Down: Friday, November 21st
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!
Note: Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review.
Click ‘Stat Chart’ Buttons Below for Pop-Ups of Essential Game-Specific Statistics including Defense vs. Position and Pace
Phoenix at Philadelphia
- Vegas Line – Phoenix -9.5, 206.5 Over/Under
- Phoenix Proj. Starters – Bledsoe-Dragic-Morris-Morris-Plumlee
- Philadelphia Proj. Starters – Carter-Williams-Thompson-Mbah a Moute-Noel-Sims
| Phoenix | Philadelphia | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 206 |  | Vegas Total | 206 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -9.5 | Vegas Sprd | 9.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 108.0 | Team Proj. | 98.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 98.91 | Team Pace | 100.83 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Eric Bledsoe | Goran Dragic | Marcus Morris | Markieff Morris | Miles Plumlee | Proj Starter | Michael Carter-Williams | Hollis Thompson | Mbah a Moute | Nerlens Noel | Henry Sims | |
| Opp. Season | 3 | 30 | 29 | 12 | 23 | Opp. Season | 25 | 19 | 2 | 26 | 15 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 15 | 13 | 23 | 20 | 19 | Opp. Last 7 | 27 | 9 | 12 | 5 | 30 | |
Phoenix
The Suns improved to 7-5 with a win over the Pistons the other night. They are looking for their third win in a row as they square off against the win-less Sixers tonight. The Suns are currently 9.5-point favorites with the total set at 206 points. In terms of the fantasy matchup, there are few better. The Sixers are one of the fastest-paced teams in the league (101 possessions per 48 minutes). They are also ranked 18th in defensive efficiency and 30th in rebounding differential.
Elite Plays
Eric Bledsoe (FD: $6800, DK: $7500 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 22.3)
It’s always hard to trust Bledsoe in cash games with Isaiah Thomas and Gerald Green’s ability to take over games, but he’s finally starting to see consistent minutes. Bledsoe has played at least 34 minutes and has scored at least 34 fantasy points (FD scoring) in three of his last four games. Bledsoe draws a terrific matchup tonight against the Sixers who play little defense, especially in transition. My favorite part about Bledsoe is that he is listed as a SG, even though he plays a lot of PG. This allows you to take up to 3 PGs on FD and 4 PGs on DK.
Markieff Morris (FD: $6700, DK: $6900 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 21.7)
We’d like to see a little more consistency out of Morris, but his inconsistent play has kept his price at a reasonable level. There are few better matchups in the NBA than when a team is facing the Sixers, especially when it comes to big men. The Sixers are ranked dead last in rebounding differential. While Nerlens Noel is a capable defender, Morris causes matchup problems with his ability to stretch the floor as well as score in the paint. At his price point, he’s one of the top PF plays of the night.
Secondary Plays
Miles Plumlee (FD: $4100, DK: $4800 / MPG: 25 / Usage Rate: 12.5)
This pick is a little contrarian, but the matchup sets up well for Plumlee. Plumlee has been somewhat unlucky in his last three games. He played awful against the Clippers and then got into foul trouble against the Celtics and Pistons. Prior to those three games, he was seeing around 35 minutes per game in his previous four. This could be a great time to buy low on Plumlee as his price has come way down on both FD and DK.
Philadelphia
The Raiders picked up their first win of the season last night. Maybe the Sixers can pick up their first win of the season tonight. Vegas has them pegged as 9.5-point underdogs, but they are playing at home against an average defense. They should be able to keep this one within striking distance. The matchup sets up pretty well for the Sixers as the Suns play uptempo basketball (99 possessions per 48 minutes), and are ranked 18th in defensive efficiency. With Michael Carter-Williams in the starting lineup, Tony Wroten is a GPP play at best tonight.
Elite Plays
Michael Carter-Williams (FD: $8300, DK: $7300 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 29.2)
Carter-Williams is a good player on a bad team. That’s typically great news for fantasy production (See: Kobe Bryant). MCW saw a season-high 32 minutes in his last game and that number will only trend upward from here. He has an extremely high usage rate of 29.2, and he draws a favorable matchup against the Suns, who are ranked 25th in fantasy points allowed to opposing PGs this season. He’s a little too expensive to use on FD, but is a solid upside play on DK.
Secondary Plays
Luc Richard Mbah a Moute (FD: $3900, DK: $3400 / MPG: 27 / Usage Rate: 18.3)
Mbah a Moute doesn’t have a very high ceiling, but he has a relatively high floor for a player in his price range. Mbah a Moute has played at least 25 minutes and has scored at least 19 fantasy points (FD scoring) in each of his last three games. He should be able to reach value against the Suns.
Orlando at Charlotte
- Vegas Line – Charlotte -3.5, 188.5 Over/Under
- Orlando Proj. Starters – Oladipo-Fournier (?)-Harris-Frye-Vucevic
- Charlotte Proj. Starters – Walker-Stephenson-Henderson-Williams-Jefferson
| Orlando | Charlotte | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 188 |  | Vegas Total | 188 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 3.5 | Vegas Sprd | -3.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 92.5 | Team Proj. | 96.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.93 | Team Pace | 93.53 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Victor Oladipo | Evan Fournier | Tobias Harris | Channing Frye | Nikola Vucevic | Proj Starter | Kemba Walker | Lance Stephenson | Gerald Henderson | Marvin Williams | Al Jefferson | |
| Opp. Season | 27 | 11 | 5 | 10 | 19 | Opp. Season | 13 | 28 | 9 | 15 | 27 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 29 | 2 | 18 | 17 | 18 | Opp. Last 7 | 14 | 16 | 17 | 4 | 29 | |
Orlando
If the playoffs started today, the Magic would only be a half-game out at 5-8. That says more about the state of the Eastern Conference than it does the Magic though. Tonight they head to Charlotte to take on the Hornets in what is expected to be a slow-paced game. The Hornets only average 94 possessions per 48 minutes and the Magic play at a similar pace. This is an average matchup, but that doesn’t mean that there aren’t viable fantasy options.
Elite Plays
Nikola Vucevic (FD: $8700, DK: $8600 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 24.7)
Vucevic has been one of the most consistent fantasy centers this season. Through the first 13 games of the season, Vucevic has averaged 19 points, 12 rebounds, and 3 assists per game. The most impressive part is that he’s played well in quite a few tough matchups along the way. Tonight he draws a favorable matchup against Al Jefferson and the Hornets, who are ranked 19th in fantasy points allowed to opposing centers this season.
Tobias Harris (FD: $7200, DK: $7400 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 23.9)
Over his last four games, Harris is averaging 24 points, 7 rebounds, and 2 assists per game. He’s also very active on the defensive side of the floor, averaging close to 2 blocks/steals per game. Harris has really taken his game to the next level this season. Tonight he’ll match up against a short-handed Hornets team that is missing it’s best wing-defender in Michael Kidd-Gilchrist.
Secondary Plays
Victor Oladipo (FD: $6800, DK: $6500 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 27)
Oladipo hasn’t played well in either of the Magic’s last two games, but all is not bad news. The minutes are there (31 per game over his last three) and the usage rate is high (27.0 this season). Oladipo will have a breakout game soon enough and it could very well come tonight against the Hornets, who are ranked 27th against PGs this season.
Charlotte
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and P.J. Hairston have both been ruled out for tonight’s game. They are expecting to have Gary Neal back though, as he is listed as probable. The Hornets are 3.5-point favorites against the Magic in a decent fantasy matchup. The Magic play at an average pace, play average defense, and have an average rebounding differential. With 11 other games on the schedule, I wouldn’t go overboard with the Hornets, but there are certainly a few that are in play tonight.
Elite Plays
Al Jefferson (FD: $8700, DK: $7900 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 30.5)
Jefferson is more of a site-specific play tonight. His price on FD may be a little high, but he’s a steal at $7,900 on DK. On the season, Jefferson is averaging 21 points, 7 rebounds, and 2 assists per game. His usage rate of 30.5 is second among all centers. Furthermore, Jefferson draws a prime matchup against Nikola Vucevic and the Magic, who are ranked 27th in fantasy points allowed to centers this season.
Lance Stephenson (FD: $6900, DK: $7200 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 18.5)
Stephenson’s usage rate is still a concern, but he’ll likely see extended playing time again tonight with both Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and P.J. Hairston out. Stephenson has topped 32 fantasy points (FD scoring) in three of his last five games. He also draws a favorable matchup, as Evan Fournier and the Magic are ranked 28th in fantasy points allowed to opposing SGs this season.
Secondary Plays
Gerald Henderson (FD: $4000, DK: $4200 / MPG: 20 / Usage Rate: 15.5)
Henderson’s last two games basically sums his fantasy appeal up perfectly. He can either have a big game (27 fantasy points against the Mavericks), or he can completely disappear (3 fantasy points against the Pacers). The good news is that his price is still cheap and he will draw another start tonight with both Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and P.J. Hairston out.
Detroit at Atlanta
- Vegas Line – Atlanta -6.5, 196 Over/Under
- Detroit Proj. Starters – Jennings-Caldwell-Pope-Smith-Monroe-Drummond
- Atlanta Proj. Starters – Teague-Korver-Carroll-Millsap-Horford
| Detroit | Atlanta | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 196 |  | Vegas Total | 196 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 6.5 | Vegas Sprd | -6.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 94.8 | Team Proj. | 101.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 93.51 | Team Pace | 95.58 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Brandon Jennings | Caldwell-Pope | Josh Smith | Greg Monroe | Andre Drummond | Proj Starter | Jeff Teague | Kyle Korver | DeMarre Carroll | Paul Millsap | Al Horford | |
| Opp. Season | 18 | 27 | 16 | 22 | 6 | Opp. Season | 6 | 24 | 3 | 18 | 28 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 27 | 12 | 25 | 24 | 3 | Opp. Last 7 | 19 | 17 | 6 | 8 | 22 | |
Detroit
The Pistons continue to be a tough team to predict on a nightly basis, but they do find themselves in a good spot tonight. The Hawks are a relatively fast-paced team that ranks in the bottom ten in both defensive efficiency and rebounding differential. This will be a revenge game for Josh Smith if you are into that sort of thing. I typically like to limit my exposure to Pistons in cash games, but take a shot on a few of them in tournaments.
Elite Plays
Greg Monroe (FD: $7000, DK: $7200 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 23.8)
Many people may not have noticed, but Monroe has actually been a very consistent fantasy option over the last couple of weeks. He has scored at least 28 fantasy points (FD scoring) in eight of his last ten games. He’ll have a sizable advantage down low over the smaller Paul Millsap. Monroe is the one Pistons player that makes for a viable cash game play tonight.
Secondary Plays
Brandon Jennings (FD: $7100, DK: $7700 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 25.4)
Throughout his career, Jennings has proven one thing: he has incredible upside, but is just as likely to put up a dud as he is having a big game. That takes him out of cash game contention for me, but I’ll continue using him as a GPP play. Jennings has scored over 31 fantasy points in six of his last seven games.
Atlanta
When you first see a team matched up against the Pistons, you immediately think it’s a great matchup. However, the numbers don’t exactly support that. The Pistons play at a slow pace (94 possessions per 48 minutes), they are decent defensively (13th in defensive efficiency), and they are a good rebounding team (11th in rebounding differential). The Pistons have struggled against centers this season, but Al Horford isn’t seeing enough playing time to be a good fantasy play on a night full a full slate of games. Tread lightly with the Hawks tonight.
Elite Plays
Kyle Korver (FD: $5400, DK: $5600 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 14.6)
Korver has put together back-to-back subpar fantasy outings. While a little slump isn’t exactly promising, the good news is that he finished strong in his last game. Prior to the slump, Korver had topped 24 fantasy points (FD scoring) in five straight games. It’s a great time to buy low on Korver as he should bounce back tonight against the Pistons, who are ranked 24th in fantasy points allowed to opposing SGs this season.
Secondary Plays
Jeff Teague (FD: $7000, DK: $6900 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 24.3)
I’ve mentioned a few times in this article that the Pistons DvP ranking against PGs would eventually correct itself over the course of the season. Brandon Jennings is not an elite defender and we are seeing them slowly move down in the DvP rankings vs. PGs. Teague has a generous usage rate of 24.3 and makes for an interesting contrarian play in GPP’s.
Milwaukee at Toronto
- Vegas Line – Toronto -8.5, 197.5 Over/Under
- Milwaukee Proj. Starters – Knight-Antetokounmpo (?)-Middleton-Parker-Sanders
- Toronto Proj. Starters – Lowry-DeRozan-Ross-Johnson-Valanciunas
| Milwaukee | Toronto | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 197 |  | Vegas Total | 197 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 8.5 | Vegas Sprd | -8.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 94.5 | Team Proj. | 103.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.03 | Team Pace | 95.95 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Brandon Knight | Giannis Antetokounmpo | Khris Middleton | Jabari Parker | Larry Sanders | Proj Starter | Kyle Lowry | DeMar DeRozan | Terrence Ross | Amir Johnson | Jonas Valanciunas | |
| Opp. Season | 16 | 6 | 18 | 4 | 29 | Opp. Season | 10 | 21 | 13 | 11 | 26 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 3 | 15 | 5 | 10 | 25 | Opp. Last 7 | 18 | 30 | 21 | 6 | 11 | |
Milwaukee
The Bucks are 8.5-point underdogs tonight against the Raptors. The total for the game opened at 197 points and has now moved up to 199 points. If anything, I would have expected the total to come down a bit, as both of these teams play at a slower than average pace. This is a tough matchup for the Bucks. The Raptors are ranked 9th in defensive efficiency and have held opponents to only 96.0 points per game.
Injury Note: Giannis Antetokounmpo is questionable for tonight’s game. If he sits out, Khris Middleton and O.J. Mayo would both see extended playing time.
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Brandon Knight (FD: $7200, DK: $7100 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 26.3)
As mentioned above, this is a tough matchup for the Bucks. It may not be a bad idea to avoid them altogether. That said, if you want some exposure to this game, Knight is an interesting upside play. Knight has a high usage rate of 26.3 and he has a great ability to contribute in multiple statistical categories. Knight also has a knack of making the “Not Top Ten” list. How about that blown lay-up to win the game the other night? C’MON MAN! Someone at Buffalo Wild Wings must have hit the “Double OT” button.
Toronto
Again, the total for this game seems a bit high to me. Both teams own a top ten defense and both teams average around 95 possessions per 48 minutes. With 11 other games on the schedule, I find myself avoiding this game completely for cash games. This is a tough matchup for the Raptors. The Bucks are ranked 4th in defensive efficiency and 9th in rebounding differential this season.
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
DeMar DeRozan (FD: $7900, DK: $7200 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 29.3)
DeRozan is in play for two reasons. One, he’s cheap on DK. With a 5x salary model, he would only need to score 36 fantasy points to reach value. That’s very attainable for DeRozan. Second, is the matchup. One of the positions that the Bucks have struggled to defend is the SG position (ranked 21st in fantasy points allowed).
San Antonio at Minnesota
- Vegas Line – San Antonio -8, 199.5 Over/Under
- San Antonio Proj. Starters – Parker-Green-Leonard-Duncan-Bonner
- Minnesota Proj. Starters – Williams-Brewer-Wiggins-Muhammad-Dieng
| San Antonio | Minnesota | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 199 |  | Vegas Total | 199 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -8.0 | Vegas Sprd | 8.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 103.8 | Team Proj. | 95.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.66 | Team Pace | 98.32 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Tony Parker | Danny Green | Kawhi Leonard | Tim Duncan | Matt Bonner | Proj Starter | Mo Williams | Corey Brewer | Andrew Wiggins | Shabazz Muhammad | Gorgui Dieng | |
| Opp. Season | 5 | 16 | 26 | 17 | 11 | Opp. Season | 8 | 4 | 10 | 24 | 8 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 20 | 8 | 29 | 19 | 15 | Opp. Last 7 | 7 | 1 | 16 | 26 | 7 | |
San Antonio
The Spurs are 8-point favorites tonight against the short-handed Wolves. While nothing has been announced, this could be a game where Coach Popovich decides to limit his starter’s minutes. This is the first half of a back-to-back and the Spurs have a much tougher test tomorrow against the Nets. All I’m saying, is beware of the POP!
Elite Plays
Kawhi Leonard (FD: $6800, DK: $7200 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 20.5)
Leonard is the one Spurs player that you can typically trust to see a full complement of minutes. He’s been very reliable this season at a position that can be tricky. If you don’t count the game against the Lakers (where he got stiches and had to leave early), Leonard has scored at least 26 fantasy points in seven straight games. His price is still affordable and he draws a favorable matchup against the Timberwolves, who are ranked 26th in fantasy points allowed to SFs this season.
Secondary Plays
None
Minnesota
Nikola Pekovic, Thaddeus Young, and Kevin Martin are all out for tonight’s game against the Spurs. Gorgui Dieng will get another start at center. Anthony Bennett may get the start at PF in order to matchup against the tall frontcourt of the Spurs. Corey Brewer will likely draw the start at SG. While the matchup against the Spurs is less than ideal, there is value galore tonight on the Wolves as backups are going to see extended playing time.
Elite Plays
Mo Williams (FD: $5500, DK: $4600 / MPG: 23 / Usage Rate: 19.6)
With rookie PG Zach LaVine struggling, Coach Flip Saunders turned to Mo Williams last game and it was a move that paid off. Williams finished with 14 points, 3 rebounds, and 13 assists in 31 minutes in a win against the Knicks. You have to think that the solid outing bought Williams the starting gig for at least a little while. It also doesn’t hurt that Kevin Martin is out as Williams may have to shoulder even more of the load offensively.
Gorgui Dieng (FD: $5500, DK: $6500 / MPG: 21 / Usage Rate: 16.2)
Dieng will draw another start at center tonight. On the season, he is averaging 1.06 fantasy points per minute which bodes well for his fantasy production tonight as he should see extended playing time. In his start the other night, he put up 32.4 fantasy points (FD scoring) in 32 minutes of work. He does draw a tough matchup against the Spurs, but he should see 30+ minutes of playing time regardless of the outcome of the game.
Secondary Plays
Corey Brewer (FD: $4700, DK: $5200 / MPG: 24 / Usage Rate: 19)
Brewer has played well off the bench this season and may get a crack at the starting lineup as Kevin Martin is out with a fractured wrist. Brewer is priced for a player seeing 25-30 minutes per night, but he could easily see upwards of 35 minutes tonight. He offers great value on FD.
Anthony Bennett (FD: $4400, DK: $4000 / MPG: 14 / Usage Rate: 16.9)
Bennett let us all down the other night. He was expected to get the start and play huge minutes against the Knicks, but Coach Flip Saunders decided to roll out a smaller starting lineup. Bennett only saw 14 minutes of action off the bench and finished with a measly 12 fantasy points. Give him another shot tonight if he gets the start at PF.