NBA Grind Down: Friday, November 28th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.
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The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!
Note: Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review.
Click ‘Stat Chart’ Buttons Below for Pop-Ups of Essential Game-Specific Statistics including Defense vs. Position and Pace
Golden State at Charlotte
- Vegas Line – Golden State -8.5, 200.5 Over/Under
- Golden State Proj. Starters – Curry-Thompson-Barnes-Green-Bogut
- Charlotte Proj. Starters – Walker-Stephenson-Henderson-Zeller-Jefferson
| Golden State | Charlotte | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 200 |  | Vegas Total | 200 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -8.5 | Vegas Sprd | 8.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 104.5 | Team Proj. | 96.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 100.94 | Team Pace | 93.62 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Stephen Curry | Klay Thompson | Harrison Barnes | Draymond Green | Andrew Bogut | Proj Starter | Kemba Walker | Lance Stephenson | Gerald Henderson | Cody Zeller | Al Jefferson | |
| Opp. Season | 29 | 11 | 7 | 9 | 18 | Opp. Season | 26 | 20 | 5 | 15 | 1 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 22 | 10 | 21 | 7 | 16 | Opp. Last 7 | 10 | 25 | 24 | 6 | 15 | |
Golden State
The Warriors are looking for their 8th win in a row tonight as they head to Charlotte to take on the Hornets. Vegas has the Warriors listed as 9-point favorites in a game that features a total of 200 points. This will be a pace-down game for the Warriors as the Hornets only average 93.6 possessions per 48 minutes.
Elite Plays
Stephen Curry (FD: $10100, DK: $9500 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 29)
Curry has been on fire over his last two games. He put up 63 fantasy points in 37 minutes against the Heat, and then followed it up with 45 fantasy points in 28 minutes against the Magic. He’s in one of those zones where I don’t mind paying up for him. Tonight he draws a favorable matchup against the Hornets, who are currently ranked 21st in fantasy points allowed to opposing PGs per 48 minutes.
Klay Thompson (FD: $7900, DK: $7300 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 27.5)
Thompson is off to a great start this season. He is averaging 22 points, 4 rebounds, and 3 assists per game this season. My favorite stat is his usage rate of 27.5, which is in the top 20 in the NBA. Thompson is a great scorer that is a frequent visitor of DraftKings’ three-point bonus. He’s a better play on DK than FD, but he’s still in play on both sites tonight against the Hornets.
Secondary Plays
Draymond Green (FD: $6800, DK: $6000 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 17.6)
Green has taken full advantage of his extended playing time this season. With David Lee out of the lineup, he is averaging 12 points, 7 rebounds, 3 assists, 1 block, and 1 steal per game. He contributes in multiple statistical categories and he’s still very affordable on both FD and DK.
Charlotte
The Hornets continue to struggle. They have now lost seven straight, which has dropped their record to 4-12 on the season. Prior to the season, they were expected to compete for home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs. They have struggled on both ends of the floor and draw a tough matchup against the Warriors tonight. Despite being a fast-paced team, the Warriors are ranked 2nd in defensive efficiency this season, holding opponents to only 96.4 points per game.
Injury Note: Marvin Williams is doubtful for tonight’s game. Cody Zeller would make a great value play if he ends up drawing the start.
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Kemba Walker (FD: $7100, DK: $7400 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 23.2)
Walker has the best matchup of anyone on the Hornets tonight. While Steve Kerr has praised Stephen Curry’s play on the defensive end of the floor, he’s still a below average defender. Walker has picked up his play of late, averaging 15 points, 7 rebounds, and 7 assists per game over his last four.
Al Jefferson (FD: $8600, DK: $8200 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 30)
Two numbers keep pulling me back to Jefferson this season. First, is his usage rate of 30.0, which is ranked in the top ten in the NBA. The second is his price tag on DK. It’s come up a bit, but it’s still rather low at only $8,200. With a 5x salary value system, he would only need to score 41 fantasy points to reach value tonight. He’s more than capable of that tonight against Andrew Bogut and company.
New Orleans at Atlanta
- Vegas Line – Atlanta -2.5, 205 Over/Under
- New Orleans Proj. Starters – Holiday-Evans-Miller-Davis-Asik
- Atlanta Proj. Starters – Teague-Korver-Carroll-Millsap-Horford
| New Orleans | Atlanta | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 205 |  | Vegas Total | 205 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 2.5 | Vegas Sprd | -2.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 101.3 | Team Proj. | 103.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.05 | Team Pace | 95.82 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Jrue Holiday | Tyreke Evans | Darius Miller | Anthony Davis | Omer Asik | Proj Starter | Jeff Teague | Kyle Korver | DeMarre Carroll | Paul Millsap | Al Horford | |
| Opp. Season | 21 | 26 | 10 | 22 | 7 | Opp. Season | 9 | 7 | 30 | 16 | 15 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 24 | 13 | 5 | 19 | 11 | Opp. Last 7 | 9 | 20 | 17 | 11 | 20 | |
New Orleans
The Pelicans head to Atlanta to take on the Hawks in what is expected to be a fast-paced, high scoring game. Both of these teams play at a fast pace and both are projected to score over 100 points tonight. The Hawks are among the leaders in the NBA in terms of bad play on the defensive end of the floor. They are ranked 26th in defensive efficiency and 28th in rebounding differential.
Elite Plays
Anthony Davis (FD: $11800, DK: $11200 / MPG: 37 / Usage Rate: 26.5)
A look at Davis’ price tag can give anyone the chills. It’s extremely tough preparing yourself to pay that much for a single player, but with all of the value available tonight, it’s not too difficult to fit him into your lineups. On the season he is averaging 25 points, 11 rebounds, 2 assists, 3 blocks, and 2 steals per game. What’s even better is that his coach came out and said that he needs to get Davis more shots offensively. This is a great night to pay up for Davis, as he will have a huge mis-match against the much smaller Paul Millsap.
Tyreke Evans (FD: $7500, DK: $7000 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 24.8)
Evans has been surprisingly consistent this season. He has now scored at least 26 fantasy points in nine of his last ten games. His usage rate on the season is 24.8, which is the highest of anyone on the Pelicans. He’s the main play-maker in this offense and he’s extremely tough to defend when he attacks the rim. Tonight he draws a favorable matchup against the Hawks, who are ranked 28th in fantasy points allowed to opposing SGs per 48 minutes.
Secondary Plays
Austin Rivers (FD: $3500, DK: $3600 / MPG: 22 / Usage Rate: 15.4)
With Eric Gordon out, Rivers is averaging close to 30 minutes per game. His fantasy production hasn’t exactly taken off, but the minutes are promising. He makes an interesting tournament play tonight against the Hawks, in what should be a high-scoring game.
Atlanta
The Hawks are 2.5-point favorites tonight against the Pelicans in a game that features a total of 205 points. Fantasy-wise, this is a pretty good matchup. The Pelicans are ranked 21st in both defensive efficiency and rebounding differential this season. The biggest issue is that I’m having a hard time trusting any of them tonight in their matchups. Paul Millsap and Al Horford will have their hands full with the very long front-court of the Pelicans.
Elite Plays
Jeff Teague (FD: $7100, DK: $7000 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 26)
Teague has quietly put together a terrific three-game stretch. He’s averaging 27 points, 3 rebounds, and 7 assists in those three outings. Tonight he squares off against Jrue Holiday and the Pelicans. While the Pelicans have been fairly stingy against PGs this season, Teague’s price doesn’t match his recent level of production.
Secondary Plays
None
Milwaukee at Detroit
- Vegas Line – Detroit -3, 188 Over/Under
- Milwaukee Proj. Starters – Knight-Mayo-Antetokounmpo-Parker-Sanders
- Detroit Proj. Starters – Augustin-Caldwell-Pope-Smith-Monroe-Drummond
| Milwaukee | Detroit | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 188.0 |  | Vegas Total | 188.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 3.0 | Vegas Sprd | -3.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 92.5 | Team Proj. | 95.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.76 | Team Pace | 93.51 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Brandon Knight | O.J. Mayo | Giannis Antetokounmpo | Jabari Parker | Larry Sanders | Proj Starter | D.J. Augustin | Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | Josh Smith | Greg Monroe | Andre Drummond | |
| Opp. Season | 6 | 29 | 1 | 18 | 28 | Opp. Season | 12 | 21 | 16 | 11 | 27 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 26 | 30 | 2 | 14 | 17 | Opp. Last 7 | 23 | 18 | 23 | 10 | 23 | |
Milwaukee
The Bucks and Pistons are two of my least favorite teams to see on the schedule. They both play at a slow pace and have had very inconsistent fantasy options on their teams this season. The total for tonight’s game is set at only 188 points, which is the second lowest total of the night. A slow paced game and an inconsistent rotation leaves the Bucks as secondary fantasy plays tonight.
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Giannis Antetokounmpo (FD: $5600, DK: $5900 / MPG: 27 / Usage Rate: 21.1)
Giannis has been inconsistent since entering the starting lineup, but there is no arguing his upside. He has scored 42, 13, 36, 11, and 28 fantasy points over his last five games. He’s more than affordable on both FD and DK and offers great upside for the price.
Larry Sanders (FD: $5500, DK: $4100 / MPG: 22 / Usage Rate: 17.6)
Sanders is a DraftKings-specific play. He was mentioned in Wednesday’s Grind Down as a GPP play and he ended up scoring 34.4 fantasy points. He has played at least 26 minutes in back-to-back games and gets a pretty decent matchup against the Pistons, who have struggled to defend opposing centers this season. It also doesn’t hurt that Zaza Pachulia is doubtful for tonight’s game.
Detroit
The Pistons draw a tough fantasy matchup against the Bucks. On the season, the Bucks are ranked 5th in defensive efficiency, holding their opponents to an average of 97.8 points per game. Brandon Jennings has been ruled out for tonight’s game though, so D.J. Augustin does make for a great value play.
Elite Plays
D.J. Augustin (FD: $4100, DK: $4400 / MPG: 24 / Usage Rate: 24.5)
Augustin will draw another start at PG for the Pistons tonight. In his previous two starts, he has scored 21 and 29 fantasy points. He should see 35+ minutes again tonight, which makes him one of the best value plays on the board. This is a fairly tough matchup, but the value and opportunity are too good to ignore.
Secondary Plays
Josh Smith (FD: $7100, DK: $6600 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 24.4)
Smith is still a tough sell for me in cash games. He has too many fantasy outings where he fails to top 20 fantasy points. That said, his price is very affordable and he does offer great upside for tournaments. Smith put up 41 fantasy points against the Bucks the other night and could replicate that performance tonight.
Dallas at Toronto
- Vegas Line – Toronto -4, 209 Over/Under
- Dallas Proj. Starters – Harris-Ellis-Parsons-Nowitzki-Chandler
- Toronto Proj. Starters – Lowry-DeRozan-Ross-Johnson-Valanciunas
| Dallas | Toronto | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 209 |  | Vegas Total | 209 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 4.0 | Vegas Sprd | -4.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 102.5 | Team Proj. | 106.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.51 | Team Pace | 96.53 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Devin Harris | Monta Ellis | Chandler Parsons | Dirk Nowitzki | Tyson Chandler | Proj Starter | Kyle Lowry | DeMar DeRozan | Terrence Ross | Amir Johnson | Jonas Valanciunas | |
| Opp. Season | 24 | 1 | 19 | 4 | 25 | Opp. Season | 17 | 16 | 22 | 6 | 9 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 29 | 1 | 20 | 13 | 10 | Opp. Last 7 | 18 | 26 | 12 | 18 | 2 | |
Dallas
Jameer Nelson has been ruled out for tonight’s game. Raymond Felton went through shoot-around this morning, but it sounds like he may not even be on the active roster for tonight’s game, which means Devin Harris will likely draw another start at PG. Tonight’s game against the Raptors is expected to be one of the highest scoring games of the night.
Elite Plays
Devin Harris (FD: $3900, DK: $4000 / MPG: 24 / Usage Rate: 16)
Harris will likely draw another start at PG tonight against the Raptors. Harris played well in his start on Wednesday night, finishing with 9 points, 2 rebounds, 8 assists, and 2 steals. He would see 30+ minutes of action in a fairly favorable matchup against the uptempo Raptors. At his price, he’s one of the best value plays on the board.
Secondary Plays
Tyson Chandler (FD: $6200, DK: $6000 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 14.2)
This pick is based on two things. One, Chandler is only averaging 29 minutes per game this season, which has brought his price down. He’ll likely see extended playing time tonight against the big front-court of the Raptors. The second thing is that the Raptors are one of the worst rebounding teams in the NBA, ranking 26th in rebounding differential this season.
Toronto
The Raptors are 4-point favorites tonight against the Mavericks in a game that features a total of 209 points. This is expected to be a fast-paced, high scoring game with plenty of fantasy goodness to go around. The Mavericks are ranked 21st in rebounding differential and have given up 99.8 points per game to their opponents this season.
Elite Plays
Kyle Lowry (FD: $8400, DK: $8400 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 23.1)
Lowry is one of the few players in the NBA that does everything on the floor well. He’s a good scorer, a good passer, a good rebound, and a good defender. On the season, he is averaging 18 points, 5 rebounds, and 7 assists per game. His usage rate has gone up and up as the season has progressed. He’s one of the top PG options tonight against Devin Harris and the Mavericks.
Secondary Plays
DeMar DeRozan (FD: $7700, DK: $7100 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 28.9)
DeRozan is in play tonight thanks to his awfully cheap price tag. On a 5x salary value system, he would only need 35.5 fantasy points to reach value on DK tonight. He certainly capable of putting up that and much more against the much smaller Monta Ellis. Don’t be surprised to see the Raptors try to exploit his mis-match in the post.
L.A. Clippers at Houston
- Vegas Line – L.A. Clippers -3, 199 Over/Under
- L.A. Clippers Proj. Starters – Paul-Redick-Bullock-Griffin-Jordan
- Houston Proj. Starters – Canaan-Harden-Ariza-Motiejunas-Black
| L.A. Clippers | Houston | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 199.0 |  | Vegas Total | 199.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -3.0 | Vegas Sprd | 3.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 101.0 | Team Proj. | 98.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.84 | Team Pace | 96.37 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Chris Paul | J.J. Redick | Reggie Bullock | Blake Griffin | DeAndre Jordan | Proj Starter | Isaiah Canaan | James Harden | Trevor Ariza | Donatas Motiejunas | Tarik Black | |
| Opp. Season | 1 | 12 | 11 | 19 | 11 | Opp. Season | 11 | 6 | 13 | 8 | 26 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 21 | 9 | Opp. Last 7 | 21 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 29 | |
L.A. Clippers
The Clippers are 3-point favorites tonight against the short-handed Rockets. The Rockets have been one of the best defensive teams in the NBA this season, but they are going to be missing two of their best defenders in Patrick Beverley and Dwight Howard. Matt Barnes is expected to miss another game tonight, which means Reggie Bullock should draw another start. Jamal Crawford probably sees the biggest fantasy boost in Barnes’ absence though.
Elite Plays
Blake Griffin (FD: $9200, DK: $9300 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 31.4)
Griffin had a terrific first half against the Pistons the other night, but was held in check the rest of the game. He hasn’t been the dominant fantasy option that we have seen in the past, but he’s still a viable option at his current price point. I’m a huge fan of his matchup tonight against the Rockets, who will have no one to defend him down low or in transition.
Secondary Plays
Chris Paul (FD: $10200, DK: $9600 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 21.7)
Chris Paul is going to do CP3-type of things tonight, but I’m not sure that I want to pay the CP3-price for him. With some of the value plays at PG (Augustin, Harris, Williams), Paul is best suited as a GPP play tonight against the Rockets.
Houston
Patrick Beverley and Dwight Howard are both expected to sit out tonight’s game against the Clippers. That means that Isaiah Canaan and Tarik Black will likely be in the starting lineup again tonight. Their matchup against the Clippers is a favorable one, as the Clippers are ranked 18th in defensive efficiency this season.
Elite Plays
James Harden (FD: $10300, DK: $10400 / MPG: 37 / Usage Rate: 31.6)
As long as Dwight Howard is out, Harden will continue to find his way onto almost all of my rosters. He’s basically their only option offensively and if he’s not scoring, then he’s likely going to get the assist on the play. He fills up all areas of the stat sheet and I have him listed right up there with Anthony Davis as the top overall play of the night.
Trevor Ariza (FD: $6000, DK: $6000 / MPG: 37 / Usage Rate: 16.9)
Ariza has been in a rut offensively. He hasn’t topped 30 fantasy points in any of the Rockets’ last ten games. While that may not be promising, considering the fact that we typically shoot for 5x salary as value, Ariza draws a favorable matchup against the Clippers. Not only have the Clippers struggled on the defensive end of the floor as a team, but they are also ranked 24th in fantasy points allowed to SFs per 48 minutes. While his upside has been somewhat limited this season, he has a high floor tonight, which makes him a solid cash game play.
Secondary Plays
Kostas Papanikolaou (FD: $4300, DK: $3800 / MPG: 26 / Usage Rate: 15.8)
Pap has really seen some extended playing time for the Rockets with all of the injuries to their frontcourt. He’s responded well by scoring at least 15 fantasy points in each of his last five games. He has been seeing around 30 minutes of action in Dwight’s absence. As long as Dwight is ruled out, Pap will make a solid value play at home against the Clippers.