NBA Grind Down: Friday, November 29th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!
Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review
Click ‘Stat Chart’ Buttons Below for Pop-Ups of Essential Game-Specific Statistics including Defense vs. Position and Pace
Milwaukee at Charlotte
- Vegas Line – Charlotte -5, 181.5 Over/Under
- Milwaukee Proj. Starters – Ridnour-Mayo-Middleton-Ilyasova-Pachulia
- Charlotte Proj. Starters – Walker-Henderson-Kidd-Gilchrist-McRoberts-Jefferson
Milwaukee
The Bucks are at the very bottom of the league in both pace of play (94) and points scored per game (89). They are facing a Bobcats team that also struggles to score the ball. Vegas has this game’s total set at 184 points which is easily the lowest of the night.
This doesn’t appear to be a great game to target, but it sounds like Brandon Knight may miss tonight’s game. If so, that could mean another start for Luke Ridnour. Ersan Ilyasova also makes an interesting GPP play, but Larry Drew’s rotation is such a mess that it’s hard to trust him in cash games.
Charlotte
The Bobcats are also at the bottom of the league in both pace of play (93) and points scored per game (88). They have really only had one bright spot offensively and that has been Kemba Walker. However, the Bucks have defended PG’s extremely well this season and Kemba is always a bit of a wildcard. While it would be easy to avoid this game altogether, I think this may be the first time of the season that I think Al Jefferson has some value.
- Al Jefferson – I’ve been waiting for Jefferson to prove that he can handle a full complement of minutes and he’s coming off of a 32 minute game the other night. He finally sounds like he’s close to 100% healthy and the matchup lines up nicely for him. The Bucks are ranked 28th against opposing Centers this season.
San Antonio at Orlando
- Vegas Line – San Antonio -9, 196 Over/Under
- San Antonio Proj. Starters – Parker-Green-Leonard-Duncan-Splitter
- Orlando Proj. Starters – Nelson-Oladipo-Afflalo-Davis-Vucevic
San Antonio
I was really disappointed in the Spurs the other night against the Thunder. It was finally a matchup that the starters were expected to play big minutes and they just fell apart in the second half. It’s hard to take any of these Spurs players in games that they are expected to win big because Coach Pop is not going to play his starters any more than he has to. The Spurs are favored by 9.5 in this one which makes it hard to trust taking either Tony Parker or Tim Duncan unless they are extremely under-priced.
- Kawhi Leonard – One play that I do think makes sense here is Leonard. He has really been producing lately in limited minutes and is a nice hedge to the potential blowout. Leonard is pretty cheap across the board and has a nice matchup against the Magic who have really struggled against wing players this season.
Orlando
The Magic have a very tough matchup tonight. Before you think about taking any Magic players, take a quick look at the Spurs DvP rankings. They are ranked in the top 8 against every single position this season. That means that the Magic not only have a tough matchup, but they also have the potential to get blown out. Now, I get to contradict myself a little bit. Even in a bad matchup, I think Victor Oladipo is in play.
- Victor Oladipo – Oladipo is a much better play if Harris is out again tonight, but even if he comes off the bench, he will likely see big minutes. Oladipo is one of the few players that doesn’t have to have a good game offensively in order for him to cover his value. Oladipo will likely lead the league in steals at the end of the season and fills up every stat category.
Miami at Toronto
- Vegas Line – Miami -5.5, 196.5 Over/Under
- Miami Proj. Starters – Chalmers-Wade-James-Battier-Bosh
- Toronto Proj. Starters – Lowry-DeRozan-Gay-Johnson-Valanciunas
Miami
These Heat games are always extremely difficult to predict because when the Heat are on their game, there aren’t many teams that can keep up with them. Not only that, but the Heat have 3 All-Stars that are all fantasy relevant. Before getting into the pick that I like, let’s first take out the picks that I don’t like. Mario Chalmers is in a tough matchup against Lowry and Chris Bosh has been nowhere to be found lately, both of these players can be ignored.
- Lebron James – The one position that the Raptors haven’t defended well this season has been the SF position. Lebron has picked up his game over the last little bit and is finally becoming a reliable fantasy option again. Lebron’s price tag is actually cheaper than Durant, Davis, and Paul on a few sites and he could easily outscore them all tonight.
Toronto
The Raptors find themselves with a tough matchup tonight. The Heat rank in the 12 against every position on the floor and have had a dominating defense over the last couple of weeks. Kyle Lowry carries some value, but his price has come up across the board and it will be hard for him to post similar numbers against this tough defense. Rudy Gay is also in that same boat, while he has played well against Lebron in the past, I would much rather take my chances on a player with a better matchup.
Dallas at Atlanta
- Vegas Line – Atlanta -1, 204 Over/Under
- Dallas Proj. Starters – Calderon-Ellis-Marion-Nowitzki-Blair
- Atlanta Proj. Starters – Teague-Korver-Carroll-Millsap-Horford
Dallas
The Mavericks are at the top of the league in both pace of play (99) and points scored per game (105). They are really pushing the tempo this season and face a team with a similar style of play in the Hawks. The Hawks have defended PG’s and PF’s well, but have struggled against the other three positions. I don’t think that Samuel Dalembert carries much fantasy value at this point though and Shawn Marion has been a bit banged up and his numbers have taken a hit.
- Monta Ellis – Monta is more of a GPP play than a cash game play tonight, but he’s worth noting because the matchup lines up well for him. Korver has been ruled out so Monta will be matched up with the likes of Lou Williams and Cartier Martin, both of which he has a big advantage against. There is always a high ceiling for Monta, so if you are playing in these big tournaments, put Monta on a team or two.
Atlanta
The Hawks are playing at a pretty quick pace (98), but are right in the middle of the pack in scoring with 99 points per game. They have a favorable matchup tonight against the Mavs who also like to push the pace. Vegas expects this to be a very close game and the total is set at 202 points which is a good thing to see. Kyle Korver will not play tonight, so expect Lou Williams and Cartier Martin to pick up most of those minutes. Neither stand out to me as great fantasy options though.
- Al Horford – Before looking at the numbers, I also liked Jeff Teague in this matchup, but the Mavs have really defended PG’s well. They have not defended Centers well though and Horford should be in for another nice stat line. Horford has scored over 30 FP’s in four of his last five games and should be able to top that mark tonight against the Mavs.
Cleveland at Boston
- Vegas Line – Boston -3.5, 187.5 Over/Under
- Cleveland Proj. Starters – Irving-Waiters-Clark-Thompson-Varejao
- Boston Proj. Starters – Crawford-Bradley-Green-Sullinger-Bass
Cleveland
This is a battle of two lottery teams. The Cavs play at an average pace, but have really struggled to score the ball this season. They are only averaging 92 points per game while giving up over 100 points per game. This game has the 3rd lowest over/under of the night and these games are usually good ones to avoid. Kyrie Irving will be locked up in a tough matchup with Avery Bradley and the rest of the Cavs are less than appealing fantasy options. One injury note: C.J. Miles will not play tonight, so if he was on your radar, make sure to take him out of your lineups.
Boston
The Celtics have a starting five full of value plays. You can make an argument for all five thanks to their cheap salaries across the board. Looking that the Cavs DvP rankings, there are quite a few favorable matchups as well. The Cavs have struggled to defend every position except for Centers.
- Jeff Green – I’ve been burned by Green a few times already this season, but he is coming off of his best game of the season in which he posted 27 points and 6 rebounds against a tough Grizzlies defense. Maybe that will jump-start him and make him more aggressive as the season goes on. His price is extremely cheap and he has nice upside against the Cavs who rank 26th against opposing SF’s.
- Jordan Crawford – I’m not sure if Kyrie will be guarding him or not, but Crawford continue to makes a solid value play. He has been a nice addition to the starting lineup and has the potential to top 25 FP’s every night that he plays.