NBA Grind Down: Monday, April 13th - Page Two
Chicago at Brooklyn – 7:30 PM
- Vegas Line – Chicago -1, 200 Over/Under
- Chicago Proj. Starters – Rose-Butler-Dunleavy-Gasol-Noah
- Brooklyn Proj. Starters – Williams-Brown-Johnson-Young-Lopez
| Chicago | Brooklyn | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 200 |  | Vegas Total | 200 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -1.0 | Vegas Sprd | 1.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 100.5 | Team Proj. | 99.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.34 | Team Pace | 94.94 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Derrick Rose | Jimmy Butler | Mike Dunleavy | Pau Gasol | Joakim Noah | Proj Starter | Deron Williams | Markel Brown | Joe Johnson | Thaddeus Young | Brook Lopez | |
| Opp. Season | 16 | 25 | 9 | 27 | 18 | Opp. Season | 26 | 3 | 19 | 12 | 7 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 22 | 10 | 9 | 13 | 21 | Opp. Last 7 | 4 | 13 | 15 | 6 | 19 | |
Chicago
This is one of the only games where both teams will be doing everything they can to get a win. The Bulls are tied for the three-seed in the Eastern Conference and the Nets need to win out to keep their eighth and final playoff spot. The Bulls are finally healthy for the first time in months. While that’s great for their chances in the East, it’s not ideal for individual fantasy production. The Nets are a favorable matchup, but there aren’t any Bulls’ players that really stand out as must-starts tonight.
Opponent Breakdown (Brooklyn)
Record: 37-43
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.9 (Rank: 19)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 23
Rebounding Differential Rank: 24
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Pau Gasol (FD: $8800, DK: $8500 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 24.4)
Jimmy Butler (FD: $8400, DK: $7500 / MPG: 39 / Usage Rate: 21.7)
Derrick Rose (FD: $6200, DK: $7000 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 30.9)
Brooklyn
The Nets are in a must-win situation tonight against the Bulls. They are currently tied with the Pacers for the eighth and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference, but they do have the tiebreaker between the two teams. The Nets draw a tough matchup against a defensive-minded Bulls’ team, but in a must-win game, I expect their starters to play all of the minutes that they can handle.
Opponent Breakdown (Chicago)
Record: 48-32
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.1 (Rank: 10)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 11
Rebounding Differential Rank: 5
Elite Plays
Deron Williams (FD: $6900, DK: $7100 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 22.4)
The Nets need to win their final two games to assure themselves a spot in the playoffs. With everything on the line tonight, we can expect their point guard to see all of the minutes that he can handle tonight. Williams has scored at least 30 fantasy points in seven of his last nine games and he draws a favorable matchup against Derrick Rose and the Bulls. Dollar for dollar, he is one of the top point guard options on the board tonight.
Secondary Plays
Brook Lopez (FD: $9000, DK: $8400 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 26.5)
Thaddeus Young (FD: $6100, DK: $6000 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 21.4)
Joe Johnson (FD: $6100, DK: $5800 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 20.9)
New Orleans at Minnesota – 8:00 PM
- Vegas Line – New Orleans -12, 199 Over/Under
- New Orleans Proj. Starters – Evans-Gordon-Pondexter-Davis-Asik
- Minnesota Proj. Starters – LaVine-Martin-Wiggins-Payne-Hamilton
| New Orleans | Minnesota | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 199 |  | Vegas Total | 199 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -12.0 | Vegas Sprd | 12.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 105.5 | Team Proj. | 93.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 93.74 | Team Pace | 96.91 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Tyreke Evans | Eric Gordon | Quincy Pondexter | Anthony Davis | Omer Asik | Proj Starter | Zach LaVine | Kevin Martin | Andrew Wiggins | Adreian Payne | Justin Hamilton | |
| Opp. Season | 29 | 27 | 29 | 24 | 28 | Opp. Season | 14 | 16 | 7 | 7 | 20 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 26 | 12 | 28 | 26 | 11 | Opp. Last 7 | 16 | 7 | 20 | 21 | 28 | |
New Orleans
The Pelicans own the tiebreaker over the Thunder, so if they can win their final two games, they will get into the playoffs regardless of how the Thunder fare in their last two games. The Pelicans are 12-point favorites in a very favorable matchup against the Wolves, who are ranked dead last in both points allowed per game and defensive efficiency this season. Jrue Holiday is questionable to play tonight. Even if he does play, he will still be on a minutes restriction.
Opponent Breakdown (Minnesota)
Record: 16-64
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.2 (Rank: 30)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 30
Rebounding Differential Rank: 26
Elite Plays
Anthony Davis (FD: $11700, DK: $11000 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 27.6)
In a must-win game, Davis should play close to 40 minutes tonight against the Wolves, who have one of the worst defensive front-courts in the entire NBA. With all of the value available tonight, it’s easy to fit Davis into your cash game and tournament lineups. He has as much upside as any player on the board tonight, as the Wolves have allowed the 7th-most fantasy points to opposing power forwards this season.
Secondary Plays
Tyreke Evans (FD: $7900, DK: $7700 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 25.9)
Minnesota
The Wolves will be without their usual cast of injured characters tonight, as they host the visiting Pelicans. The Wolves are huge underdogs tonight, but their starters will all see big minutes, regardless of the outcome of the game. This is a mediocre matchup at best though, as the Pelicans are ranked 12th in points allowed per game and 7th in rebounding differential this season.
Opponent Breakdown (New Orleans)
Record: 43-37
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.6 (Rank: 12)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 22
Rebounding Differential Rank: 7
Elite Plays
Andrew Wiggins (FD: $7800, DK: $7000 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 22.3)
With all of the injuries to the Wolves, Wiggins has taken over as the leader of this team. He has been terrific in his last ten games, averaging 37 fantasy points in 41 minutes per contest. He’s going to be the number one option offensively and he’s going to play around 40 minutes. That can’t be said for many players tonight, especially not at this price point. Continue targeting the future Rookie of the Year in all league formats.
Secondary Plays
Zach LaVine (FD: $6100, DK: $6400 / MPG: 23 / Usage Rate: 22.1)
Kevin Martin (FD: $6400, DK: $5800 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 26.6)
Portland at Oklahoma City – 8:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Oklahoma City -8.5, 214 Over/Under
- Portland Proj. Starters – Lillard-McCollum-Batum-Leonard-Lopez
- Oklahoma City Proj. Starters – Westbrook-Waiters-Roberson-Kanter-Adams
| Portland | Oklahoma City | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 214 |  | Vegas Total | 214 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 8.5 | Vegas Sprd | -8.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 102.8 | Team Proj. | 111.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.35 | Team Pace | 98.24 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Damian Lillard | C.J. McCollum | Nicolas Batum | Meyers Leonard | Robin Lopez | Proj Starter | Russell Westbrook | Dion Waiters | Andre Roberson | Enes Kanter | Steven Adams | |
| Opp. Season | 24 | 8 | 23 | 26 | 4 | Opp. Season | 28 | 22 | 13 | 1 | 5 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 15 | 11 | 29 | 16 | 2 | Opp. Last 7 | 19 | 20 | 25 | 17 | 13 | |
Portland
The Blazers are locked into the four-seed in the Western Conference. Without much to play for, they have decided to rest LaMarcus Aldridge tonight against the Thunder. The Blazers are listed as 9-point underdogs tonight against Oklahoma City, who has their season on the line. It will be interesting to see if the Blazers’ starters see their usual allotment of minutes tonight. There is really only one player that is on my radar here.
Opponent Breakdown (Oklahoma City)
Record: 43-37
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.8 (Rank: 24)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 16
Rebounding Differential Rank: 2
Elite Plays
C.J. McCollum (FD: $4700, DK: $4500 / MPG: 14 / Usage Rate: 20.1)
McCollum will draw another start for the injured Arron Afflalo tonight. He has really played well recently, averaging 28 fantasy points in 30 minutes per contest over his last six games. He should see 30+ minutes of action tonight and his price has yet to fully reflect his recent level of production. Target McCollum as a value play on both FanDuel and DraftKings tonight.
Secondary Plays
Damian Lillard (FD: $8200, DK: $8000 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 26.6)
Oklahoma City
The Thunder caught a HUGE break today, as the NBA rescinded Russell Westbrook’s technical foul. He will now avoid suspension and be able to play tonight against the Blazers. The Thunder are tied with the Pelicans, but they will lose the tiebreaker if both teams win out. In a must-win game against the Blazers, we can expect their starters to all log heavy minutes tonight. The Thunder are also projected to score 111 points, which is one of the highest totals on the board.
Opponent Breakdown (Portland)
Record: 51-29
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.3 (Rank: 11)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 10
Rebounding Differential Rank: 8
Elite Plays
Russell Westbrook (FD: $12100, DK: $11800 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 37.2)
Now that Westbrook will be able to play tonight, he immediately becomes the top fantasy option on the board. If I had to choose between the two, I would take Westbrook over Anthony Davis tonight. That said, there is enough value that you can actually target both players without sacrificing the rest of your team. Westbrook is coming off of a career-high 54 point outing against the Pacers last night. He will be in full video-game mode tonight against the Blazers.
Secondary Plays
Enes Kanter (FD: $7400, DK: $7800 / MPG: 28 / Usage Rate: 24.4)
Dion Waiters (FD: $4900, DK: $5000 / MPG: 27 / Usage Rate: 21.9)
Dallas at Utah – 9:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Utah -11, 190.5 Over/Under
- Dallas Proj. Starters – Rondo-Harris-Jefferson-Stoudemire-James
- Utah Proj. Starters – Exum-Hood-Hayward-Favors-Gobert
| Dallas | Utah | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 190 |  | Vegas Total | 190 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 11.0 | Vegas Sprd | -11.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 89.8 | Team Proj. | 100.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 97.08 | Team Pace | 92.47 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Rajon Rondo | Devin Harris | Richard Jefferson | Amare Stoudemire | Bernard James | Proj Starter | Dante Exum | Rodney Hood | Gordon Hayward | Derrick Favors | Rudy Gobert | |
| Opp. Season | 5 | 11 | 3 | 9 | 1 | Opp. Season | 19 | 13 | 25 | 17 | 17 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 5 | 17 | 12 | 5 | 17 | Opp. Last 7 | 7 | 18 | 26 | 11 | 29 | |
Dallas
The Mavericks will rest Chandler Parsons, Monta Ellis, Dirk Nowitzki, and Tyson Chandler tonight, as they are locked into the seven-seed with nothing to play for. Typically, this would be a great spot to target some value plays, but I’m not expecting much from the Mavericks tonight. They face a Jazz team that is ranked 1st in points allowed per game and rebounding differential this season. There are better value plays in the other games on the schedule.
Opponent Breakdown (Utah)
Record: 37-43
Points Allowed Per Game: 94.7 (Rank: 1)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 12
Rebounding Differential Rank: 1
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Al-Farouq Aminu (FD: $4300, DK: $4000 / MPG: 18 / Usage Rate: 15.2)
J.J. Barea (FD: $3600, DK: $3100 / MPG: 18 / Usage Rate: 21.7)
Utah
Gordon Hayward and Derrick Favors were both rested on Saturday night against the Blazers. It sounds like Favors has a good chance to suit up tonight, but Hayward is listed as questionable. The Jazz are expected to have Trey Burke back, as he is listed as probable. This is a favorable matchup for fantasy production, as the Mavericks will roll out their B-team tonight.
Opponent Breakdown (Dallas)
Record: 49-31
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.3 (Rank: 25)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 18
Rebounding Differential Rank: 30
Elite Plays
Rodney Hood (FD: $4800, DK: $5300 / MPG: 20 / Usage Rate: 19)
Hood is playing his best basketball of the season. He has scored at least 24 fantasy points in each of his last five games, topping the 34 fantasy point mark three times during that stretch. He should see extended action again tonight against the Mavericks, who will be without four of their five best players. Hood offers a high floor and a high ceiling tonight, which puts him in play in both cash games and tournaments.
Secondary Plays
Rudy Gobert (FD: $8800, DK: $7700 / MPG: 26 / Usage Rate: 13.7)
L.A. Lakers at Sacramento – 10:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Sacramento -4.5, 209 Over/Under
- L.A. Lakers Proj. Starters – Clarkson-Brown-Kelly-Davis-Black
- Sacramento Proj. Starters – McCallum-McLemore-Casspi-Landry-Thompson
| L.A. Lakers | Sacramento | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 209 |  | Vegas Total | 209 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 4.5 | Vegas Sprd | -4.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 102.3 | Team Proj. | 106.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.32 | Team Pace | 97.91 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Jordan Clarkson | Jabari Brown | Ryan Kelly | Ed Davis | Tarik Black | Proj Starter | Ray McCallum | Ben McLemore | Omri Casspi | Derrick Williams | Jason Thompson | |
| Opp. Season | 25 | 30 | 14 | 22 | 26 | Opp. Season | 30 | 26 | 20 | 15 | 23 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 3 | 28 | 21 | 24 | 16 | Opp. Last 7 | 23 | 23 | 17 | 28 | 5 | |
L.A. Lakers
The Lakers will be without Jeremy Lin, Dwight Buycks, Wayne Ellington, and Wesley Johnson tonight. They basically only have a few players that they could possibly use in the back-court tonight. Expect huge minutes for Jordan Clarkson, Jabari Brown, and Ryan Kelly tonight against the Kings. This is one of the more favorable matchups on the board, as the Kings are ranked 29th in points allowed per game this season. Don’t be afraid to load up on the purple and gold tonight.
Opponent Breakdown (Sacramento)
Record: 27-53
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.3 (Rank: 29)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 27
Rebounding Differential Rank: 3
Elite Plays
Jordan Clarkson (FD: $8000, DK: $7000 / MPG: 24 / Usage Rate: 22.9)
Clarkson has been one of my favorite point guard targets over the last few weeks of play, even at his elevated price point. In his last eight games, he has averaged 38 fantasy points in 36 minutes per contest. With all of the injuries, Clarkson could end up playing over 40 minutes tonight. I’m willing to pay a premium for Clarkson, as he draws a premium matchup against the Kings, who have struggled to contain point guards all season.
Ryan Kelly (FD: $4800, DK: $4600 / MPG: 22 / Usage Rate: 13.9)
Kelly may also push for 40+ minutes of playing time tonight. He has played well in his last eight games, averaging 25 fantasy points in 37 minutes per contest. He draws a favorable matchup against a Kings’ defense that has struggled to contain power forwards all season. He’s a low-risk, medium-reward fantasy option in both cash games and tournaments.
Jabari Brown (FD: $3800, DK: $4000 / MPG: 26 / Usage Rate: 16.7)
Brown will draw another start at shooting guard and he should push for 35+ minutes of action tonight against the Kings. He is coming off of two solid outing against the Wolves and the Mavericks, averaging 27 fantasy points per contest. At a price of only $3,800 on FanDuel and $4,000 on DraftKings, he should be able to reach and exceed value with ease. The Kings are ranked dead last against shooting guards this season.
Secondary Plays
Ed Davis (FD: $5300, DK: $4600 / MPG: 23 / Usage Rate: 14.5)
Tarik Black (FD: $4600, DK: $4100 / MPG: 18 / Usage Rate: 13.9)
Sacramento
DeMarcus Cousins and Rudy Gay have both been ruled out for the remainder of the season, which means the rotation players are going to have to carry the load offensively in the last two games of the season. The Kings draw a fantastic matchup tonight against the Lakers, who are ranked 28th in points allowed per game this season. Just like the Lakers, don’t be afraid to load up on Kings’ players tonight in a game that should feature very little defense.
Opponent Breakdown (L.A. Lakers)
Record: 21-59
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.1 (Rank: 28)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 29
Rebounding Differential Rank: 17
Elite Plays
Ray McCallum (FD: $5200, DK: $4800 / MPG: 20 / Usage Rate: 17.7)
McCallum sees a huge boost in usage rate with DeMarcus Cousins and Rudy Gay out. He has played well recently, scoring at least 24 fantasy points in five of his last seven games. His price is still at a very playable level on both FanDuel and DraftKings and he draws a tremendous matchup against the Lakers, who are ranked dead last against point guards this season. It shouldn’t be too difficult for McCallum to reach and exceed value expectations tonight.
Secondary Plays
Omri Casspi (FD: $4600, DK: $5200 / MPG: 20 / Usage Rate: 17.8)
Jason Thompson (FD: $4900, DK: $4400 / MPG: 24 / Usage Rate: 12.6)
Ben McLemore (FD: $4300, DK: $4500 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 16.8)
Derrick Williams (FD: $4100, DK: $4000 / MPG: 19 / Usage Rate: 18)