NBA Grind Down: Monday, December 22nd
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!
Note: Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review.
Click ‘Stat Chart’ Buttons Below for Pop-Ups of Essential Game-Specific Statistics including Defense vs. Position and Pace
Denver at Charlotte
- Vegas Line – Charlotte -2, 200.5 Over/Under
- Denver Proj. Starters – Lawson-Afflalo-Chandler-Faried-Mozgov
- Charlotte Proj. Starters – Walker-Henderson-Kidd-Gilchrist-Zeller-Jefferson
| Denver | Charlotte | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 200.5 |  | Vegas Total | 200.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 2.0 | Vegas Sprd | -2.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 99.3 | Team Proj. | 101.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 98.75 | Team Pace | 94.13 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Ty Lawson | Arron Afflalo | Wilson Chandler | Kenneth Faried | Timofey Mozgov | Proj Starter | Kemba Walker | Gerald Henderson | Michael Kidd-Gilchrist | Cody Zeller | Al Jefferson | |
| Opp. Season | 29 | 7 | 4 | 12 | 17 | Opp. Season | 8 | 12 | 18 | 25 | 21 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 14 | 3 | 21 | 19 | 14 | Opp. Last 7 | 6 | 22 | 11 | 28 | 10 | |
Denver
The Nuggets have really struggled on the road this season with a 4-9 record. They have a good chance of picking up their fifth road win of the season tonight though, as they head to Charlotte to take on a disappointing Hornets team. The Hornets are only 8-19 on the season and are giving up an average of 100.9 points per game, despite being one of the slowest-paced teams in the league. Vegas is expecting a very competitive game between these two teams tonight.
Elite Plays
Ty Lawson (FD: $8500, DK: $9700 / MPG: 37 / Usage Rate: 20.7)
Lawson is really the only Nuggets player that strikes my fancy tonight. It’s not that this isn’t a good matchup, it’s just that the players around Lawson have been extremely inconsistent. Lawson on the other hand, is having another terrific season. He is averaging 15 points, 3 rebounds, and 11 assists per game this season. He has scored at least 32 fantasy points in seven of his last ten games and draws a favorable matchup against the Hornets, who are ranked 29th in fantasy points allowed to opposing point guards. Note: Lawson is a game-time decision tonight.
Secondary Plays
None
Charlotte
The Hornets have won two games in a row and it’s not surprising that Lance Stephenson was out for both of those games. There are reports that he is not getting along with some of his teammates. Stephenson has already been ruled out for tonight’s game, so we will see if the Hornets can win three in a row without him. In terms of the fantasy matchup, this is a favorable one. The Nuggets are a very fast-paced team, averaging 98.8 possessions per 48 minutes. The Nuggets are also ranked 18th in defensive efficiency, giving up an average of 103.9 points per game. The only question here is how many Hornets are too many?
Elite Plays
Kemba Walker (FD: $8000, DK: $8400 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 23.9)
In the two games without Lance Stephenson in the lineup, Walker has scored 39 and 41 fantasy points. His usage rate is much higher without Stephenson on the floor and it has shown in his recent fantasy production. While the Nuggets have been surprisingly stingy against point guards this season, I will take Walker in this matchup every day of the week. Not only will his usage in the offense be up without Stephenson, but this will be a pace-up game for the Hornets. Walker is an elite fantasy option in what should be a high scoring game against the Nuggets.
Gerald Henderson (FD: $3900, DK: $4300 / MPG: 24 / Usage Rate: 16.5)
Henderson has started the last two games for the injured Lance Stephenson and has really made the most of his opportunity. After scoring 23 fantasy points against the Sixers, he backed up it up 27 fantasy points against the Jazz. He should see 30+ minutes of action again tonight against the Nuggets. Henderson only needs around 20 fantasy points to reach value tonight, a feat that he should easily accomplish against the fast-paced Nuggets.
Secondary Plays
Al Jefferson (FD: $8700, DK: $9000 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 28.1)
Jefferson should also benefit from Stephenson being out of the lineup. Jefferson and Stephenson are both ball-dominant players whose games don’t complement each other all that well. Targeting big men against the Nuggets is a time-honored tradition that I don’t mind exploiting again tonight. The Nuggets are ranked 21st in fantasy points allowed to centers. Jefferson will look for his fourth double-double in a row tonight.
Gary Neal (FD: $3800, DK: $4200 / MPG: 24 / Usage Rate: 24.2)
While Neal doesn’t crack the starting lineup, he should still see a small fantasy boost off the bench with Lance Stephsnson out. Neal has scored at least 19 fantasy points in four of his last six games and could see upwards of 30 minutes tonight if he is playing well. Neal is extremely affordable on both FanDuel and DraftKings, which allows you to spend up at the other positions.
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (FD: $5000, DK: $4900 / MPG: 25 / Usage Rate: 16.9)
MKG is coming off of arguably his best fantasy outing of the season. In 33 minutes against the Jazz, he had 13 points, 11 rebounds, 2 assists, and 3 blocks. While he doesn’t benefit directly from Lance Stephenson being out, he should see a few extra minutes in his absence.
Toronto at Chicago
- Vegas Line – Chicago -4, 201 Over/Under
- Toronto Proj. Starters – Lowry-Ross-Johnson-Johnson-Valanciunas
- Chicago Proj. Starters – Rose-Butler-Dunleavy-Gasol-Noah
| Toronto | Chicago | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 201 |  | Vegas Total | 201 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 4.0 | Vegas Sprd | -4.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 98.5 | Team Proj. | 102.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.30 | Team Pace | 95.69 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Kyle Lowry | Terrence Ross | James Johnson | Amir Johnson | Jonas Valanciunas | Proj Starter | Derrick Rose | Jimmy Butler | Mike Dunleavy | Pau Gasol | Joakim Noah | |
| Opp. Season | 28 | 2 | 21 | 5 | 27 | Opp. Season | 12 | 1 | 26 | 13 | 11 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 16 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 25 | Opp. Last 7 | 7 | 9 | 17 | 20 | 4 | |
Toronto
The Raptors will likely be without DeMar DeRozan and Landry Fields tonight. DeRozan is expected to be out until January and Fields is dealing with concussion symptoms so he may not return to the lineup for a few games. Assuming the Raptors stick with the same starting lineup as yesterday, James Johnson will draw the start at small forward tonight against the Bulls. Vegas is expected this to be a competitive game, as the Raptors are only 4-point underdogs in a game that features a total of 201 points. The Bulls own an above average defense, ranking ninth in defensive efficiency and sixth in rebounding differential.
Elite Plays
James Johnson (FD: $4100, DK: $3900 / MPG: 20 / Usage Rate: 16.1)
Landry Fields sat out yesterday’s game dealing with concussion symptoms. There is a very small chance that he will get cleared for tonight’s game, which means Johnson will likely draw another start at small forward. Johnson played well in his start yesterday, putting up 10 points, 6 rebounds, 2 assists, and 2 blocks. He’s been extremely productive when given minutes and as long as he starts tonight, he should be assured of 20+ minutes. Johnson is cheap and draws a favorable matchup against the Bulls, who are ranked 21st in fantasy points allowed to opposing small forwards.
Secondary Plays
Kyle Lowry (FD: $9600, DK: $10000 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 25.8)
Lowry has been on a tear without DeMar DeRozan in the lineup. The only thing holding him back from being an elite play again tonight is his matchup against the slow-paced Bulls. The Raptors are only projected to score 98 points tonight, which is almost ten points lower than their season average. I expect Lowry to play well here, but just fall short of what he needs to reach value.
Amir Johnson (FD: $5000, DK: $4800 / MPG: 26 / Usage Rate: 16)
Power forward is a thin position tonight. While he’s not an elite play, tonight’s game against the Bulls sets up well for Johnson. He has topped 28 minutes in three of his last five games and should see extended action tonight against the Bulls, who have one of the biggest front-courts in the NBA. Johnson needs around 25 fantasy points to reach value tonight, a feat that he has accomplished four times in his last ten games.
Chicago
The Bulls currently sit in the four seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs. They are only four games behind the Raptors though and they have a good chance to shorten the gap in the standings. The Bulls are expecting to be at full-strength tonight, with Derrick Rose and Taj Gibson both expected to return to the lineup. They draw a fantasy-friendly matchup tonight against the Raptors, who are giving up 99.1 points per game this season.
Elite Plays
Jimmy Butler (FD: $8900, DK: $7700 / MPG: 40 / Usage Rate: 22.1)
Butler deserves to be in the shooting guard conversation on FanDuel, but may top the list on DraftKings. Luckily, he’s not listed under $7,000 anymore, but he is still sitting at a very playable $7,700. His fantasy production may take a small hit with Derrick Rose back in the lineup, but he’s been such a consistent fantasy option this season. He is averaging 22 points, 6 rebounds, 3 assists, and 2 steals per game. While the Raptors have been stingy against shooting guards this season, I’m expecting another quality fantasy outing from Butler tonight.
Secondary Plays
Pau Gasol (FD: $8800, DK: $8700 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 24.6)
Gasol doesn’t get the credit that he deserves, especially this season. He has arguably been their best player, averaging 18 points, 12 rebounds, 2 assists, and 2 blocks per game. The most impressive part has been his ability to stay healthy this season. Tonight he matches up against Amir Johnson and the Raptors, who are ranked 13th in fantasy points allowed to centers this season.
Portland at Houston
- Vegas Line – Houston -3.5, 198 Over/Under
- Portland Proj. Starters – Lillard-Matthews-Batum-Aldridge-Freeland
- Houston Proj. Starters – Beverley-Harden-Ariza-Motiejunas-Howard
| Portland | Houston | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 198 |  | Vegas Total | 198 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 3.5 | Vegas Sprd | -3.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 97.3 | Team Proj. | 100.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.13 | Team Pace | 97.20 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Damian Lillard | Wesley Matthews | Nicolas Batum | LaMarcus Aldridge | Joel Freeland | Proj Starter | Patrick Beverley | James Harden | Trevor Ariza | Donatas Motiejunas | Dwight Howard | |
| Opp. Season | 4 | 6 | 19 | 26 | 10 | Opp. Season | 6 | 4 | 23 | 9 | 18 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 11 | 5 | 9 | 30 | 20 | Opp. Last 7 | 2 | 25 | 10 | 26 | 9 | |
Portland
The Blazers and Rockets square off tonight in a battle between two of the best teams in the Western Conference. The Blazers are currently 3.5-point underdogs in a game that features a total of 198 points. The Rockets may be a fast-paced team, but they are elite defensively. The Rockets are ranked second in defensive efficiency this season, holding opponents to an average of 96.3 points per game.
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
LaMarcus Aldridge (FD: $10300, DK: $10600 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 28.9)
As much as I’d love to recommend Aldridge as an elite play tonight, I just can’t do it. The combination of his tough matchup and his hefty salary leave him as a secondary play tonight against the Rockets. That said, Aldridge has been playing extremely well recently, scoring at least 40 fantasy points in five of his last six games. Another monster double-double should be in store for Aldridge tonight, but I’m not sure he is going to give you the 50+ fantasy points needed to reach value.
Wesley Matthews (FD: $5500, DK: $5500 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 19.5)
Matthews is listed at a bargain bin price of only $5,500 on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Using a 5x value system, he only needs to score 27.5 fantasy points to reach value tonight. He is more than capable of that tonight, especially considering his matchup against James Harden. While Harden does get a lot of steals, he is not a great defender and he takes way too many chances defensively. Matthews should get plenty of open looks in a fast-paced game against the Rockets.
Houston
The Rockets will look to end their two-game skid tonight against the Blazers at home. While both of these teams like to push the pace, both own top five defenses, which could lead to a low-scoring game. The Blazers are ranked third in defensive efficiency this season, holding opponents to an average of 96.3 points per game. There are some viable options in this game, but none that stand out as absolute “must plays.”
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Dwight Howard (FD: $9600, DK: $9400 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 25.9)
In his four games since returning to the lineup, Howard is averaging 21 points, 13 rebounds, 3 assists, and 3 blocks per game. He has scored at least 38 fantasy points in every game during that stretch. Tonight he matches up against the Blazers who are missing one of their key big men in Robin Lopez. Howard should be able to dominate the likes of Joel Freeland and Chris Kaman down low. At his price point, he deserves consideration at center in both cash games and tournaments.
Trevor Ariza (FD: $6000, DK: $6400 / MPG: 39 / Usage Rate: 17.7)
The Rockets have traded for Corey Brewer, but I don’t expect that to hurt Ariza’s fantasy production, at least not yet. Brewer is expected to play tonight, but will likely have a very limited role off the bench. Ariza should still get a ton of minutes tonight against the Blazers. Ariza is a low-risk, medium reward fantasy option for cash games tonight.
Utah at Memphis
- Vegas Line – Memphis -9, 194 Over/Under
- Utah Proj. Starters – Burke-Burks-Hayward-Favors-Kanter
- Memphis Proj. Starters – Conley-Lee-Prince-Leuer-Gasol
| Utah | Memphis | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 194 |  | Vegas Total | 194 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 9.0 | Vegas Sprd | -9.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 92.5 | Team Proj. | 101.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 92.54 | Team Pace | 93.90 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Trey Burke | Alec Burks | Gordon Hayward | Derrick Favors | Enes Kanter | Proj Starter | Mike Conley | Courtney Lee | Tayshaun Prince | Jon Leuer | Marc Gasol | |
| Opp. Season | 5 | 25 | 8 | 22 | 2 | Opp. Season | 13 | 10 | 15 | 28 | 3 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 8 | 30 | 12 | 29 | 3 | Opp. Last 7 | 12 | 14 | 13 | 14 | 21 | |
Utah
The Jazz have the unfortunate task of playing against the Grizzlies. Memphis is where opponent’s fantasy production goes to die. The Grizzlies are ranked eighth in defensive efficiency, they are only averaging 93.8 possessions per 48 minutes, and they have held their opponents to an average of 97.0 points per game this season. The Jazz have a team total of only 92.5 points. With the bad matchup and the potential blowout, it may not be a bad idea to avoid the Jazz completely tonight.
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
None
Memphis
The Grizzlies may be without Zach Randolph tonight. He missed the last game with a knee injury, and Coach Joerger says “Taking a couple of nights off isn’t the worst thing in the world.” Reading between the lines, you have to think that the Grizzlies may hold him out tonight in what should be a fairly easy victory over the Jazz. If Randolph is forced to sit out, Jon Leuer would likely draw the start in his place. Marc Gasol would see a small fantasy boost as well.
Elite Plays
Jon Leuer (FD: $3600, DK: $4700 / MPG: 16 / Usage Rate: 19.5)
This pick comes with the caveat that Zach Randolph does not play. In his start the other night, Leuer had 16 points, 7 rebounds, and 2 steals in 30 minutes of playing time. If Randolph is forced to sit out again tonight, Leuer would likely see a similar amount of minutes tonight against the Jazz. At his price point, he would be one of the top value plays on the board. Keep your eye on the injury news throughout the day and use Leuer as a classic injury plug-and-play if Randolph is ruled out.
Secondary Plays
Marc Gasol (FD: $8700, DK: $9200 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 25.4)
Gasol is in play tonight against the Jazz, but if I’m spending up at center tonight, I’d rather take my chances with either Dwight Howard or DeMarcus Cousins. Both are in better matchups and you have to worry about a blowout in the Grizzlies game. That said, Gasol has been dominant recently, scoring at least 37 fantasy points in six of his last seven games.
Atlanta at Dallas
- Vegas Line – Dallas -6.5, 207.5 Over/Under
- Atlanta Proj. Starters – Schroder-Korver-Carroll-Millsap-Horford
- Dallas Proj. Starters – Rondo-Ellis-Parsons-Nowitzki-Chandler
| Atlanta | Dallas | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 207.5 |  | Vegas Total | 207.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 6.5 | Vegas Sprd | -6.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 100.5 | Team Proj. | 107.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.70 | Team Pace | 96.17 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Dennis Schroder | Kyle Korver | DeMarre Carroll | Paul Millsap | Al Horford | Proj Starter | Rajon Rondo | Monta Ellis | Chandler Parsons | Dirk Nowitzki | Tyson Chandler | |
| Opp. Season | 24 | 15 | 20 | 6 | 6 | Opp. Season | 3 | 26 | 16 | 10 | 7 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 13 | 1 | 26 | 17 | 11 | Opp. Last 7 | 4 | 24 | 15 | 24 | 7 | |
Atlanta
The Hawks have been a pleasant surprise this season. They have won nine of their last ten games and have moved all the way up to the two seed in the Eastern Conference. While that’s certainly impressive, it probably says more about the state of the Eastern Conference than it does the Atlanta Hawks. Tonight the Hawks head to Dallas to take on the new-look Mavericks. The Hawks are 6.5-point underdogs in a game that features a total of 207 points. The Mavericks have not been great defensively this season, giving up an average of 102.4 points per game.
Elite Plays
Dennis Schroder (FD: $5000, DK: $5400 / MPG: 18 / Usage Rate: 25)
Jeff Teague is doubtful for tonight’s game against the Mavericks, which means Schroder will likely draw another start at point guard. He has played well in his last two starts, posting 26 and 20 fantasy points. He hasn’t seen starter’s type of minutes in those two outings, but he did play 30 minutes against the Rockets. If he can get 30 minutes of playing time tonight against the Mavericks, he should easily reach and exceed value. Rajon Rondo has slowly morphed into one of the laziest on-ball defenders in the NBA.
Secondary Plays
Paul Millsap (FD: $7900, DK: $8300 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 23.4)
Millsap hasn’t topped 40 fantasy points in any of his last ten games, but he has scored at least 30 in four straight. His recent slump has brought his price down to a very playable level, especially on FanDuel. While the Mavericks have been stingy against opposing power forwards this season, Nowitzki should have a hard time defending the versatile Millsap.
Dallas
The Mavericks still need to adjust to their new acquisition, but they now have a starting five that rivals that of any team in the NBA. They picked up a win in Rajon Rondo’s first game as a Mav and will look to win their fourth straight game tonight. They are 6.5-point favorites in what is expected to be one of the highest scoring games of the night. The Hawks have been good defensively this season, but are ranked 25th in rebounding differential.
Elite Plays
Dirk Nowitzki (FD: $7100, DK: $6400 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 26.7)
The pricing algorithm on DraftKings doesn’t like Dirk Nowitzki. He is continuously priced under $7,000. Don’t get me wrong, I’m not complaining, I’m merely telling you to take advantage. Based on a 5x value system, Nowitzki only needs to score 32 fantasy points tonight to reach value. That’s basically what he has been average per game this season. Nowitzki is my favorite power forward tonight on DraftKings and deserves some consideration on FanDuel as well.
Secondary Plays
Tyson Chandler (FD: $6900, DK: $6800 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 13.4)
Chandler has really played well for the Mavericks this season, averaging 11 points and 12 rebounds per game. Now that Rajon Rondo is on board, Chandler is going to get a lot of easy looks right around the rim (see: Tyler Zeller in Boston). The matchup against Al Horford isn’t ideal, but as mentioned above, the Hawks are one of the worst rebounding teams in the NBA.
Rajon Rondo (FD: $8400, DK: $7900 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 17.9)
The question is not whether Rondo will succeed in Dallas, but when he will succeed. Do we start targeting him in only his second appearance with his new team? His first game with the Mavericks was promising. Not only did he play 34 minutes, but he put up a classic Rondo stat line of 6 points, 7 rebounds, and 9 assists. Rondo is an elite point guard that now has more offensive weapons around him. Tonight may be the night to jump on the Rondo bandwagon before the masses do.