NBA Grind Down: Monday, January 19th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!
Note: Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review.
Philadelphia at Washington – 2:00 pm EST
- Vegas Line – Washington -14, 192.5 Over/Under
- Philadelphia Proj. Starters – Carter-Williams-McDaniels-Covington-Mbah a Moute-Noel
- Washington Proj. Starters – Wall-Beal-Pierce-Hilario-Gortat
| Philadelphia | Washington | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 192 |  | Vegas Total | 192 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 14.0 | Vegas Sprd | -14.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 89.3 | Team Proj. | 103.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 98.69 | Team Pace | 95.36 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Michael Carter-Williams | K.J. McDaniels | Robert Covington | Luc Mbah a Moute | Nerlens Noel | Proj Starter | John Wall | Bradley Beal | Paul Pierce | Nene Hilario | Marcin Gortat | |
| Opp. Season | 6 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 3 | Opp. Season | 24 | 30 | 23 | 30 | 30 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 19 | 7 | 12 | 16 | 21 | Opp. Last 7 | 24 | 19 | 10 | 8 | 30 | |
Philadelphia
We have eight early games and four late games on tap for Martin Luther King Day. Most fantasy sites have early leagues, late leagues, and all day leagues, so there is plenty of daily fantasy basketball action for us to get in on. The Sixers take their 8-32 record into Washington for the first game of the day. The Sixers not only struggle to win games, but they also struggled to keep them competitive. Vegas has the Sixers listed as 14-point underdogs in this one. Given the potential blowout and the tough matchup against the Wizards, the Sixers can safely be avoided in cash games. If, and only if, Tony Wroten is ruled out, Michael Carter-Williams is worth a look as an option in tournaments.
Opponent Breakdown (Washington)
Record: 28-13
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.4
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 7
Rebounding Differential Rank: 5
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
None
Washington
The Wizards are 17-5 at home this season. They have been one of the better stories in the NBA through the first half of the season and currently sit second in the Eastern Conference standings. Today’s matchup against the Sixers is obviously a favorable one, but we have to be careful with games that have as big of a spread as this one. If the Sixers can keep it close, the Wizards would be a great source of fantasy production. The Sixers are a fast-paced team that has allowed opponents to score an average of 102.6 points per game this season. The risk with these players in cash games may be a bit high, but it could really pay off in tournaments.
Opponent Breakdown (Philadelphia)
Record: 8-32
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.6
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 13
Rebounding Differential Rank: 30
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
John Wall (FD: $8700, DK: $9300 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 25.2)
Wall has the unique combination of a depressed price and a favorable matchup. His production has been down a bit recently, causing his price to fall below $9,000 on FanDuel. A matchup against the Sixers at home might be just what the doctor ordered for his recent slump. The Sixers have allowed the seventh most fantasy points to point guards this season and Wall is averaging over 40 fantasy points per game at home.
Bradley Beal (FD: $6400, DK: $6300 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 21.9)
Beal isn’t a popular fantasy option very often. He’s typically in that price range where people would rather spend up on a top-notch shooting guard or take the value route. He makes an intriguing play today though, as the Sixers have allowed the most fantasy points of any team to opposing shooting guards this season. Beal also comes into this game playing some great basketball, posting at least 30 fantasy points in four of his last six games.
Minnesota at Charlotte – 2:00 pm EST
- Vegas Line – Charlotte -4, 194 Over/Under
- Minnesota Proj. Starters – Williams-Wiggins-Hummel-Young-Dieng
- Charlotte Proj. Starters – Roberts-Henderson-Kidd-Gilchrist-Zeller-Biyombo
| Minnesota | Charlotte | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 194 |  | Vegas Total | 194 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 4.0 | Vegas Sprd | -4.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 94.0 | Team Proj. | 98.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 98.32 | Team Pace | 95.13 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Mo Williams | Andrew Wiggins | Robbie Hummel | Thaddeus Young | Gorgui Dieng | Proj Starter | Brian Roberts | Gerald Henderson | Michael Kidd-Gilchrist | Cody Zeller | Bismack Biyombo | |
| Opp. Season | 10 | 17 | 2 | 11 | 11 | Opp. Season | 29 | 24 | 30 | 26 | 29 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 2 | 22 | 1 | 18 | 23 | Opp. Last 7 | 23 | 28 | 4 | 4 | 25 | |
Minnesota
The Wolves are hoping to have a few players return from injury soon, but it may not be for today’s game against the Hornets. Nikola Pekovic and Ricky Rubio have both been ruled out of this game, but Kevin Martin still has a chance to play. He is listed as questionable. Once Martin is able to return to the lineup, it will likely hurt the fantasy appeal of Robbie Hummel, Chase Budinger, and even Andrew Wiggins. Today’s matchup against the Hornets is a mediocre one. The Hornets play at an average pace and are ranked around the league average in both defensive efficiency and rebounding differential.
Opponent Breakdown (Charlotte)
Record: 16-25
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.2
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 10
Rebounding Differential Rank: 12
Elite Plays
Mo Williams (FD: $6300, DK: $6300 / MPG: 27 / Usage Rate: 22.8)
Williams’ time as a starter is coming to an end very soon, but we can still target him as long as Ricky Rubio is out. Williams has really played well as the starting point guard this season, averaging 19 points, 3 rebounds, and 8 assists per game. His 52-point outburst last week has caused a slight bump in his price, but he’s still in play here, especially considering the fact that Kemba Walker is not expected to play.
Secondary Plays
Andrew Wiggins (FD: $7700, DK: $7300 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 22)
With his recent level of play, Wiggins would typically be listed as an elite play. The problem here is two-fold. His price has come up across the industry and he’ll likely be defended by Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, who is an excellent defender. Wiggins should still see around 40 minutes of action in this one, but may be in for some tough sledding in this matchup.
Robbie Hummel (FD: $3800, DK: $3400 / MPG: 13 / Usage Rate: 12.8)
This pick hinges on the status of Kevin Martin. If Martin is unable to play, Hummel will likely draw another start at small forward. He is coming off of his best game of the season. He played 43 minutes against the Nuggets and finished the game with 15 points and 13 rebounds. We can’t expect a repeat performance, but there are few starters at his price point in daily fantasy basketball.
Charlotte
The Hornets host the Wolves today, but they are likely going to be without both Kemba Walker and Al Jefferson. Walker was unable to practice on Sunday and it sounds like Jefferson is targeting Wednesday for his return to the lineup. Brian Roberts and Bismack Biyombo will continue to start in their absence. The matchup against the Wolves is one that should not go overlooked. The Wolves play at a fast pace, they are ranked dead last in defensive efficiency, and they struggle to rebound the basketball. Given the fact that the Hornets will likely be without their two best players, this is a sneaky team to target for value.
Opponent Breakdown (Minnesota)
Record: 7-32
Points Allowed Per Game: 108.1
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 30
Rebounding Differential Rank: 25
Elite Plays
Brian Roberts (FD: $3500, DK: $4200 / MPG: 16 / Usage Rate: 19.1)
Twitter was about to blow up the other night when Roberts started for the injured Kemba Walker. He didn’t record a single fantasy point until late in the first quarter. He picked it up from there, but still finished with a disappointing 13.4 fantasy points (FD scoring). Roberts is in a prime position for a bounce-back game on a day where his ownership level will go down thanks to recency bias. Roberts is averaging 0.74 fantasy points per minute this season and should see at least 30 minutes against the Wolves, who just so happen to struggle against point guards.
Secondary Plays
Gerald Henderson (FD: $5500, DK: $5100 / MPG: 26 / Usage Rate: 18.9)
Henderson doesn’t see a boost directly with Walker and Jefferson out, but their absence increases his usage in the Hornets’ offense. He has quietly put together some terrific fantasy outings recently, scoring at least 31 fantasy points in four of his last six games. Henderson is affordable and provides a high floor for a player at his price point.
Bismack Biyombo (FD: $5100, DK: $4500 / MPG: 17 / Usage Rate: 11.8)
Biyombo may only have one more start under his belt before Al Jefferson makes his return to the lineup. He will try to make the most of it against the Wolves. Biyombo is coming off of three of his best games of the season, posting 31, 40, and 28 fantasy points. He’s still very limited on the offensive end of the floor, but he’s a great shot blocker. He has also averaged double-digit rebounds in his last six games.
Detroit at Atlanta – 2:30 pm EST
- Vegas Line – Atlanta -7.5, 204 Over/Under
- Detroit Proj. Starters – Jennings-Caldwell-Pope-Singler-Monroe-Drummond
- Atlanta Proj. Starters – Teague-Korver-Carroll-Millsap-Horford
| Detroit | Atlanta | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 204 |  | Vegas Total | 204 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 7.5 | Vegas Sprd | -7.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 98.3 | Team Proj. | 105.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.77 | Team Pace | 96.19 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Brandon Jennings | Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | Kyle Singler | Greg Monroe | Andre Drummond | Proj Starter | Jeff Teague | Kyle Korver | DeMarre Carroll | Paul Millsap | Al Horford | |
| Opp. Season | 12 | 14 | 19 | 10 | 6 | Opp. Season | 5 | 10 | 28 | 29 | 24 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 21 | 9 | 17 | 1 | 5 | Opp. Last 7 | 12 | 15 | 16 | 12 | 27 | |
Detroit
Two of the hottest teams in the NBA square off in this one. The Pistons have won eight of their last ten games, while the Hawks have won their last twelve. Despite their recent level of play, the Pistons are still listed as 7.5 point underdogs today. This is not a matchup that we should go out of our way to target. The Hawks have been elite defensively, ranking fifth in efficiency and holding their opponents to 96.6 points per game. Brandon Jennings, Greg Monroe, and Andre Drummond all have appeal as tournament plays, but the Pistons can safely be avoided in cash games.
Opponent Breakdown (Atlanta)
Record: 33-8
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.6
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 5
Rebounding Differential Rank: 21
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
None
Atlanta
The Hawks are not only the ‘Spurs of the East,’ but they are out-Spurs-ing the Spurs. They have won 12 straight games and currently own the second-best record in the entire NBA. They are a very unselfish team that plays hard, and smart, on both ends of the floor. Coach Mike Budenholzer has been able to get terrific production out of both his starters and his bench. The issue with a deep team is that the production is typically spread around from game to game. There is nothing wrong with their matchup against the Pistons, but there aren’t any options that really stand out on the Hawks today.
Opponent Breakdown (Detroit)
Record: 16-25
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.6
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 15
Rebounding Differential Rank: 13
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Paul Millsap (FD: $8200, DK: $8400 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 23.6)
The Pistons have slightly improved their defense against opposing power forwards since the departure of Josh Smith, but they have still allowed the second most fantasy points to the position this season. Millsap is a tough cover for most forwards and that should hold true today against the Greg Monroe. Millsap has lacked the high ceiling that we have seen from him in the past, but he still provides a high floor, making him a safe play in cash games.
Boston at L.A. Clippers – 3:30 pm EST
- Vegas Line – L.A. Clippers -12, 212.5 Over/Under
- Boston Proj. Starters – Turner-Bradley-Crowder-Sullinger-Zeller
- L.A. Clippers Proj. Starters – Paul-Redick-Barnes-Griffin-Jordan
| Boston | L.A. Clippers | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 212.5 |  | Vegas Total | 212.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 12.0 | Vegas Sprd | -12.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 100.3 | Team Proj. | 112.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 99.27 | Team Pace | 96.56 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Evan Turner | Avery Bradley | Jae Crowder | Jared Sullinger | Tyler Zeller | Proj Starter | Chris Paul | J.J. Redick | Matt Barnes | Blake Griffin | DeAndre Jordan | |
| Opp. Season | 4 | 13 | 15 | 16 | 22 | Opp. Season | 27 | 2 | 25 | 28 | 21 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 5 | 8 | 14 | 30 | 20 | Opp. Last 7 | 28 | 20 | 28 | 19 | 12 | |
Boston
The Celtics have lost seven of their last ten games and own a paltry 4-12 road record this season. Vegas has the Celtics listed as 12-point underdogs in this game, giving us another potential blowout. Given the deep and inconsistent rotation of Coach Brad Stevens, the Celtics can be ignored in all league formats. With such a large slate of games, there are better matchups to exploit.
Opponent Breakdown (L.A. Clippers)
Record: 27-14
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.7
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 19
Rebounding Differential Rank: 19
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
None
L.A. Clippers
The Clippers are faced with a familiar situation. While they draw a favorable matchup against the Celtics, there is the potential that this game could be in hand by the end of the third quarter. Blowouts are always tough to predict in the NBA, but when there is such a large slate of games, why take the risk? In situations like this, I tend to avoid the players from the game in cash games. You can always afford to take more risks in tournaments though, which is why the Clippers make an excellent source of tournament plays.
Opponent Breakdown (Boston)
Record: 13-25
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.2
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 17
Rebounding Differential Rank: 18
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Blake Griffin (FD: $10000, DK: $9800 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 29.7)
Griffin has played well recently, averaging 26 points, 7 rebounds, and 5 assists per game over his last seven. He draws a favorable matchup today against the Celtics, who have allowed the third most fantasy points to power forwards this season. Again, he probably won’t be on my radar for cash games, but his prime matchup makes him a terrific tournament play.
Jamal Crawford (FD: $5100, DK: $4800 / MPG: 26 / Usage Rate: 28.1)
Crawford is the one Clippers’ player that does deserve consideration in cash games. Even if the game turns into a blowout, Crawford’s minutes should be secure. His price is more than reasonable across the industry and he’s scored at least 23 fantasy points in four of his last five games.
Denver at Golden State – 4:00 pm EST
- Vegas Line – Golden State -14, 218 Over/Under
- Denver Proj. Starters – Lawson-Afflalo-Chandler-Faried-Nurkic
- Golden State Proj. Starters – Curry-Thompson-Barnes-Green-Bogut
| Denver | Golden State | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 218 |  | Vegas Total | 218 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 14.0 | Vegas Sprd | -14.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 102.0 | Team Proj. | 116.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 98.73 | Team Pace | 100.81 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Ty Lawson | Arron Afflalo | Wilson Chandler | Kenneth Faried | Jusuf Nurkic | Proj Starter | Stephen Curry | Klay Thompson | Harrison Barnes | Draymond Green | Andrew Bogut | |
| Opp. Season | 15 | 12 | 8 | 17 | 18 | Opp. Season | 9 | 25 | 14 | 24 | 28 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 11 | 14 | 19 | 29 | 13 | Opp. Last 7 | 10 | 27 | 25 | 23 | 6 | |
Denver
The Nuggets square off against the Warriors in what could be yet another blowout. The Nuggets are listed as 14-point favorites here. The line is certainly justified, as the Nuggets struggle on the road (6-13) and the Warriors are dominant at home (17-1). The Warriors are ranked first in defensive efficiency this season, but their quick pace of play does negate that a little. The Nuggets aren’t a great team to target today, but there is one option that stands out as an excellent play.
Opponent Breakdown (Golden State)
Record: 32-6
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.1
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 1
Rebounding Differential Rank: 16
Elite Plays
J.J. Hickson (FD: $4700, DK: $5000 / MPG: 20 / Usage Rate: 20.3)
Since the Timofey Mozgov trade, Hickson has actually seen a bigger boost in minutes than Jusuf Nurkic. Over his last six games, Hickson is averaging 27 fantasy points in 28 minutes of action per game. The best part is that Hickson will likely see 25+ minutes regardless of the outcome of the game. He may even see a few extra minutes in garbage time if the game gets out of hand.
Secondary Plays
None
Golden State
The Warriors continue to pave their way through the NBA schedule. They have won nine of their last ten games and own the NBA’s best record at 32-6. They have a very deep team, which allows Coach Steve Kerr to limit his starter’s minutes. Not a single starter is averaging more than 33 minutes per game this season. The Warriors draw an advantageous matchup against the Nuggets, who have allowed their opponents to score an average of 103.8 points per game this season. The biggest issue is the potential blowout.
Opponent Breakdown (Denver)
Record: 18-22
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.8
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 21
Rebounding Differential Rank: 7
Elite Plays
Klay Thompson (FD: $7900, DK: $7700 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 26.8)
Klay is heating up. After scoring 32 points against the Thunder, he followed it up with 27 points against the Rockets. He has averaged 38 fantasy points per game over his last six. He squares off against Nuggets, who have allowed the sixth most fantasy points to shooting guards this season.
Secondary Plays
Andrew Bogut (FD: $5500, DK: $4500 / MPG: 25 / Usage Rate: 14.3)
Bogut is a very sneaky play today against the Nuggets. He has not played well since coming back from injury, but here is what we know about Bogut: He is averaging 1.04 fantasy points per minute this season, he should see around 25 minutes of action, and he is facing a Nuggets defense that has struggled to defend big men since the age of the dinosaurs. I’m not saying, I’m just saying.