NBA Grind Down: Monday, January 19th - Page Two
Dallas at Memphis – 5:00 pm EST
- Vegas Line – Memphis -3, 203 Over/Under
- Dallas Proj. Starters – Rondo-Ellis-Parsons-Nowitzki-Chandler
- Memphis Proj. Starters – Conley-Lee-Allen-Randolph-Gasol
| Dallas | Memphis | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 203.0 |  | Vegas Total | 203.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 3.0 | Vegas Sprd | -3.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 100.0 | Team Proj. | 103.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 97.27 | Team Pace | 94.13 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Rajon Rondo | Monta Ellis | Chandler Parsons | Dirk Nowitzki | Tyson Chandler | Proj Starter | Mike Conley | Courtney Lee | Tony Allen | Zach Randolph | Marc Gasol | |
| Opp. Season | 3 | 22 | 18 | 5 | 1 | Opp. Season | 28 | 4 | 17 | 8 | 14 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 25 | 3 | Opp. Last 7 | 18 | 1 | 15 | 22 | 28 | |
Dallas
The Mavericks continue to hang around the fifth seed in the Western Conference. They have won seven of their last ten games, but it’s hard to make up ground on the teams out West unless you go on an insane winning-streak. They have a chance to pick up a game on the Grizzlies today though. This is not a matchup that we need to target though. The Mavericks will be in a pace-down game against the Grizzlies, who have held opponents to an average of 97.9 points per game this season. Dirk Nowitzki has an attractive price on DraftKings, but there are better values at power forward.
Opponent Breakdown (Memphis)
Record: 29-11
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.9
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 11
Rebounding Differential Rank: 15
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
None
Memphis
The question that we will all be asking today is whether or not Mike Conley is going to play. There hasn’t been an update on his status since Saturday, so we have to assume that he is questionable for Monday’s game against the Mavericks. If he is forced to sit out again, Beno Udrih would immediately become one of the top value plays. He has averaged 26 fantasy points per game in his last two starts. Outside of Udrih, there is really only one other option that stands out against the Mavericks.
Opponent Breakdown (Dallas)
Record: 28-13
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.5
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 16
Rebounding Differential Rank: 28
Elite Plays
Marc Gasol (FD: $8600, DK: $8400 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 25.8)
Gasol would also see a fantasy boost with Mike Conley out, but is still in play even with Conley in the lineup. Gasol does everything well on the floor, allowing him to contribute in multiple statistical categories. It also gives him a high floor, making him a safe target in cash games. Gasol has now scored at least 32 fantasy points in nine of his last ten games.
Secondary Plays
None
Indiana at Houston – 5:30 pm EST
- Vegas Line – Houston -10, 198.5 Over/Under
- Indiana Proj. Starters – Watson-Stuckey-Hill-West-Hibbert
- Houston Proj. Starters – Beverley-Harden-Ariza-Motiejunas-Howard
| Indiana | Houston | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 198.5 |  | Vegas Total | 198.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 10.0 | Vegas Sprd | -10.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 94.25 | Team Proj. | 104.25 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.51 | Team Pace | 98.26 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | C.J. Watson | Rodney Stuckey | Solomon Hill | David West | Roy Hibbert | Proj Starter | Patrick Beverley | James Harden | Trevor Ariza | Donatas Motiejunas | Dwight Howard | |
| Opp. Season | 2 | 20 | 20 | 18 | 15 | Opp. Season | 17 | 26 | 6 | 1 | 7 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 25 | 29 | 22 | 21 | 17 | Opp. Last 7 | 26 | 10 | 6 | 7 | 9 | |
Indiana
The Pacers are looking to end their four-game losing streak, but chances are they will likely be in for their fifth loss in a row. Vegas has the Pacers listed as 10-point underdogs in a game that features a total of 198.5 points. The Rockets are ranked second in defensive efficiency and ninth in rebounding differential this season. Not only is the matchup less than favorable, but the Pacers are one of the slowest-paced teams in the NBA. David West is the preferred play here, but on such a large slate, he doesn’t even make my list of top five plays at power forward.
Opponent Breakdown (Houston)
Record: 28-13
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.4
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 2
Rebounding Differential Rank: 9
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
None
Houston
The Rockets have won six of their last ten games. While most teams would be happy with that, they have actually dropped in the Western Conference standings. The Rockets should be able to pick up another win tonight though. They are double-digit favorites at home against a Pacers team that is only 7-16 on the road this season. The Pacers may not boast a winning record, but they do top the list of matchups that I try to avoid. As mentioned above, they are one of the slowest-paced teams in the NBA. They are also ranked seventh in defensive efficiency and fifth in rebounding differential.
Opponent Breakdown (Indiana)
Record: 15-27
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.6
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 7
Rebounding Differential Rank: 5
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Donatas Motiejunas (FD: $5600, DK: $5500 / MPG: 28 / Usage Rate: 18.4)
Many expected Motiejunas to fall off the face of the fantasy Earth once the Rockets picked up Josh Smith, but that hasn’t been the case. Over his last eight games, he has averaged 27 fantasy points in 32 minutes of action per game. The key stat there is the 32 minutes per game. If he continues to see starter’s minutes consistently, he will continue to be an appealing fantasy option. His matchup against the Pacers isn’t ideal, but his price is still affordable.
Trevor Ariza (FD: $5500, DK: $5800 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 17)
Once again, Ariza is near the top of the list when it comes to value at small forward. His minutes have been down a little recently, but his three-point percentage has actually gone up drastically. Even with his minutes down, he’s been productive recently, averaging 27 fantasy points per game over his last eight.
New Orleans at New York – 5:30 pm EST
- Vegas Line – New Orleans -7, 193.5
- New Orleans Proj. Starters – Evans-Gordon-Cunningham-Davis-Asik
- New York Proj. Starters – Calderon-Larkin-Anthony-Smith-Stoudemire
| New Orleans | New York | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 193.5 |  | Vegas Total | 193.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -7.0 | Vegas Sprd | 7.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 100.25 | Team Proj. | 93.25 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 94.75 | Team Pace | 92.89 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Tyreke Evans | Eric Gordon | Dante Cunningham | Ryan Anderson | Omer Asik | Proj Starter | Jose Calderon | Shane Larkin | Carmelo Anthony | Jason Smith | Amar’e Stoudemire | |
| Opp. Season | 23 | 29 | 4 | 6 | 20 | Opp. Season | 21 | 16 | 16 | 12 | 17 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 29 | 25 | 8 | 2 | 10 | Opp. Last 7 | 14 | 12 | 24 | 24 | 24 | |
New Orleans
This Pelicans are tough to break down without knowing the availability of Jrue Holiday and Anthony Davis. It sounds as if Davis has the better of playing of the two, but we likely won’t know for sure until closer to tipoff. If Holiday is forced to sit, Tyreke Evans would draw another start at point guard. He provides a ton of upside at the point and would be one of the top plays at shooting guard. Eric Gordon would also see a boost if Holiday sits out. Ryan Anderson has not played well in his last two starts, but would see a major boost if Davis is forced out of today’s game.
Opponent Breakdown (New York)
Record: 5-36
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.7
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 29
Rebounding Differential Rank: 29
Elite Plays / Secondary Plays
TBD – Tyreke Evans, Eric Gordon, and Ryan Anderson could all be elite plays should Jrue Holiday and/or Anthony Davis sit out.
New York
The Knicks have lost 16 games in a row. It doesn’t matter what sport you play, it’s hard to lost 16 games in a row. They are in absolute free-fall mode right now and it doesn’t appear that it’s going to change anytime soon. Carmelo Anthony is expected to play today against the Pelicans, while Amar’e Stoudemire is listed as questionable. Until this team can prove that they can at least be competitive, they should be avoided in all league formats.
Opponent Breakdown (New Orleans)
Record: 20-20
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.5
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 25
Rebounding Differential Rank: 8
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
None
Chicago at Cleveland – 7:30 pm EST
- Vegas Line – Cleveland -3, 205 Over/Under
- Chicago Proj. Starters – Rose-Hinrich-Butler-Gibson-Gasol
- Cleveland Proj. Starters – Irving-Smith-James-Love-Mozgov
| Chicago | Cleveland | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 205.0 |  | Vegas Total | 205.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 3.0 | Vegas Sprd | -3.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 101.0 | Team Proj. | 104.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.99 | Team Pace | 94.58 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Derrick Rose | Kirk Hinrich | Jimmy Butler | Taj Gibson | Pau Gasol | Proj Starter | Kyrie Irving | J.R. Smith | LeBron James | Kevin Love | Timofey Mozgov | |
| Opp. Season | 14 | 28 | 26 | 23 | 10 | Opp. Season | 16 | 5 | 22 | 27 | 13 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 9 | 16 | 23 | 10 | 29 | Opp. Last 7 | 20 | 26 | 11 | 20 | 26 | |
Chicago
The Bulls head to Cleveland to take on a Cavaliers’ team that has won two games in a row. They will be without their starting center Joakim Noah; he has already been ruled out with an ankle injury. Taj Gibson will draw another start in his place. Pau Gasol and Nikola Mirotic will also see a small boost in his absence. Today’s matchup against the Cavaliers provides a good source of fantasy options. The Cavaliers are ranked 26th in defensive efficiency this season, allowing opponents to score an average of 100.7 points per game.
Opponent Breakdown (Cleveland)
Record: 21-20
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.7
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 26
Rebounding Differential Rank: 14
Elite Plays
Taj Gibson (FD: $5300, DK: $5800 / MPG: 28 / Usage Rate: 18.7)
The big game from Gibson is coming, don’t give up on him now. He hasn’t played terribly in his last two starts, but he hasn’t lived up to expectations with his outings of 26 and 24 fantasy points. He has looked hesitant offensively, but hopefully he’ll be a little more comfortable in his third start in a row. He’s been extremely productive in the starting lineup over the last few seasons and the Cavaliers have really struggled against power forwards. Gibson is my favorite power forward to reach and exceed value today.
Secondary Plays
Derrick Rose (FD: $7400, DK: $7000 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 31.2)
Don’t look now, but Rose is starting to show flashes of his campaign season. Over his last three games, he has averaged 28 points, 4 rebounds, and 8 assists. The key statistic is that he has played at least 33 minutes in each of those games. I’ll take 33+ minutes from a player with a high usage rate (31.2) at his price point any day of the week. This may be a great time to target Rose before his price takes a big jump.
Cleveland
The Cavaliers have won two in a row. Their first win against the Lakers wasn’t all that impressive, but they backed it up with a win over the Clippers in Los Angeles. Kevin Love missed the game the other night and should be considered questionable for tonight’s game against the Bulls. If he is forced to sit out, Tristan Thompson would draw the start at power forward. He would make a great value play against the Bulls. Overall, this isn’t a great matchup, but the Bulls aren’t as stout defensively as they have been in year’s past. They are ranked 12th in defensive efficiency, giving up 99.5 points per game.
Opponent Breakdown (Chicago)
Record: 27-15
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.5
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 12
Rebounding Differential Rank: 4
Elite Plays
LeBron James (FD: $10900, DK: $10800 / MPG: 38 / Usage Rate: 31)
There is a ton of value available today, which makes it easy to fit a superstar into your lineup. It can be unnerving rostering a Cavaliers’ player, but LeBron has looked terrific since returning from injury. He has been very aggressive offensive and has scored at least 46 fantasy points in each of his last three games. With the limited options at small forward, LeBron may be the player to pay up for tonight.
Secondary Plays
J.R. Smith (FD: $5900, DK: $4600 / MPG: 27 / Usage Rate: 23.4)
Smith is a little over-priced on FanDuel and a little under-priced on DraftKings. At a price of only $4,600, he only needs to score 23 fantasy points to reach value. He has averaged 26 fantasy points per game over his last five. He also draws a favorable matchup against the much smaller Kirk Hinrich.
Toronto at Milwaukee – 8:00 pm EST
- Vegas Line – Toronto -1, 198.5 Over/Under
- Toronto Proj. Starters – Lowry-DeRozan-Ross-Johnson-Valanciunas
- Milwaukee Proj. Starters – Knight-Middleton-Antetokounmpo-O’Bryant-Pachulia
| Toronto | Milwaukee | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 198.5 |  | Vegas Total | 198.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -1.0 | Vegas Sprd | 1.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 99.8 | Team Proj. | 98.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.06 | Team Pace | 96.32 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Kyle Lowry | DeMar DeRozan | Terrence Ross | Amir Johnson | Jonas Valanciunas | Proj Starter | Brandon Knight | Khris Middleton | Giannis Antetokounmpo | Johnny O’Bryant | Zaza Pachulia | |
| Opp. Season | 1 | 8 | 29 | 13 | 16 | Opp. Season | 19 | 9 | 27 | 9 | 9 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 1 | 6 | 30 | 14 | 2 | Opp. Last 7 | 30 | 2 | 18 | 6 | 16 | |
Toronto
Now that DeMar DeRozan is back in the mix, the Raptors are an easy team to avoid every night they are on the schedule. DeRozan plays a ton of minutes and has a very high usage rate in this offense. His presence hurts the fantasy appeal of Kyle Lowry, Terrence Ross, James Johnson, and Lou Williams. Tonight’s matchup against the Bucks is less than ideal and even if it was a favorable matchup, the Raptors are too tough to predict right now. You can safely avoid all Raptors tonight against the Bucks.
Opponent Breakdown (Milwaukee)
Record: 21-19
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.3
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 3
Rebounding Differential Rank: 19
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
None
Milwaukee
The Bucks have had a great turn-around this season. They are 21-19 and currently sit fifth in the Eastern Conference standings. The Bucks are listed as 1-point underdogs tonight against the Raptors. This is actually a pretty decent matchup to exploit. The Raptors are ranked 22nd in defensive efficiency this season, giving up an average of 101.5 points per game to their opponents.
Opponent Breakdown (Toronto)
Record: 26-14
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.5
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 22
Rebounding Differential Rank: 16
Elite Plays
Brandon Knight (FD: $7400, DK: $7800 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 26.4)
Knight has everything that we look for in a point guard. He plays big minutes (32 per game), he has a high usage rate in the offense (26.4), and he can fill up the stat sheet (he averages 4 rebounds and 5 assists per game). He also draws a favorable matchup against the Raptors, who have allowed the 12th most fantasy points to point guards this season.
Secondary Plays
Zaza Pachulia (FD: $5600, DK: $5800 / MPG: 23 / Usage Rate: 18.7)
Larry Sanders has now been suspended for ten games, which means Pachulia will continue to man the middle for the Bucks. He’s made the most of his opportunity, averaging 28 fantasy points per game over his last seven. He rarely plays more than 30 minutes, but he’s still a good value play at center.