NBA Grind Down: Monday, March 24th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-03-24 20:59:31

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NBA Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

Click ‘Stat Chart’ Buttons Below for Pop-Ups of Essential Game-Specific Statistics including Defense vs. Position and Pace

Houston at Charlotte

Vegas Line – Houston -4.5, 205, Over/Under
Houston Proj. Starters – Beverley-Harden-Parsons-Jones-Asik
Charlotte Proj. Starters – Walker-Henderson-Kidd-Gilchrist-McRoberts-Jefferson

Houston

The Rockets are hoping to have Dwight Howard back for tonight’s game against the Bobcats. He is currently listed as a game-time decision, but the Rockets are optimistic about his chances to play. If Dwight is back in the lineup, that ends the run for Omer Asik as a value play at Center. He would essentially go back to playing 10-20 minutes off the bench. However, if Dwight does end up sitting out again, Asik would become a terrific punt option at Center.

This is a tough matchup for the Rockets. The Bobcats like to slow the pace of the game down and are holding opponents to the 4th fewest points per game. The Bobcats are susceptible to two positions though. While they are ranked 8th or better against SG’s, SF’s, and Centers, they have struggled to defend PG’s and Centers. James Harden makes an interesting tournament play. The Bobcats have already surrendered two 60 point games this season (Melo and LeBron) and he would love to be the 3rd.

Patrick Beverley – Beverley has found his stroke from the 3 point line. He has scored at least 14 actual points and at least 23 FP’s in each of his last 4 games. Beverley has a nice matchup against the Bocbats who are ranked 22nd against PG’s this season. He should also see extended playing time tonight as he will be defending the tough Kemba Walker.

Charlotte

The Bobcats continue their solid run and there may not be a happier person on the planet than Michael Jordan. He has not made many good decisions for the Bobcats, but the Walker/Jefferson combo looks like a solid threat for years to come. This is a favorable matchup for the Bobcats as they will be playing at a faster pace than their season average. We like to refer to this as a pace-up game for the Bobcats.

Al Jefferson value really hinges on the health of Dwight Howard. If you look at the DvP rankings, the Rockets are ranked 11th against Centers with Dwight in the lineup and 26th against Centers with Asik in the lineup. That is a huge swing so make sure to keep your eye on Dwight’s status tonight. Kemba Walker is averaging 35 FP’s per game at home this season. I don’t love his matchup against Beverley, but I like him as a tournament play.

Gerald Henderson – Henderson is quietly averaging just under 30 FP’s per game in his last 5 and draws a terrific matchup against the Rockets who have surrendered the 7th most FP’s to SG’s this season. Henderson is also SG eligible which really helps on a site like FD that can be tough to fill the SG position. Henderson has a floor of around 20 and a ceiling of over 30. That’s not bad at his price point.

Phoenix at Atlanta

Vegas Line – Phoenix -1, 214.5 Over/Under
Phoenix Proj. Starters – Dragic-Bledsoe-Tucker-Frye-Plumlee
Atlanta Proj. Starters – Teague-Mack-Carroll-Millsap-Antic

Phoenix

The Suns and Hawks are both uptempo teams and this game features one of the higher totals of the night. The Hawks are giving up the 11th most points per game this season and Eric Bledsoe and Goran Dragic will both look to attack this defense in transition. The Hawks have really struggled to protect the rim this season because neither Paul Millsap nor Pero Antic are very formidable defenders down low.

Markieff Morris has topped 26 FP’s in 5 of his last 6 games and more importantly is averaging close to 30 minutes per game over that stretch. He makes a nice play tonight against the Hawks who are ranked 23rd against PF’s this season. Eric Bledsoe makes an interesting play, but he only played 23 minutes in his last back to back situation and he may see limited minutes tonight after playing 35 minutes against the Wolves yesterday.

Goran Dragic – Dragic’s production has gone down with Bledsoe back in the lineup, but they look comfortable playing together now and like I mentioned above, the Suns may take it easy with Bledsoe as this is a back to back situation. Dragic has topped 31 FP’s in 3 straight games and should have another solid game tonight against the Hawks who are ranked 19th against PG’s.

Atlanta

The Hawks have a very nice matchup against the Suns who gave up 127 points to the Wolves in their last game and are playing in a back to back situation. Neither team is going to waste their time and effort by playing any defense in this one. Kyle Korver may sit out again tonight as he is dealing with back spasms. If he is forced to sit out, Shelvin Mack will draw the start at SG and makes for a nice tournament play. Pero Antic is still close to minimum salary across the industry and makes a decent punt option at Center.

Jeff Teague – Teague is a very streaky player and the good news for us is that he is on a hot streak right now. In his last 6 games, he is averaging just over 35 FP’s per game. The Suns are ranked 20th against PG’s this season and Teague is going to see all of the playing time that he can handle.

Paul Millsap – Millsap is having a career year and will look to finish off the season strong. He has a nice matchup tonight against the Suns who are below average defensively against PF’s this season. When people think of Millsap, they think of him as a player with a high floor, but he actually has a very high ceiling as well. He’s topped 49 FP’s in two of his last five games.

Portland at Miami

Vegas Line – Miami -6, 208 Over/Under
Portland Proj. Starters – Lillard-Matthews-Wright-Batum-Lopez
Miami Proj. Starters – Chalmers-Wade-James-Bosh-Oden

Portland

If there was ever a good time for the Blazers to face the Heat in Miami without LaMarcus Aldridge, this is it. The Heat will be without Dwyane Wade tonight and they have lost 7 of their last 11 games. The line for this game is only set at 6 points which means Vegas is clearly factoring in the recent slide of the Heat. As far as the matchups go, there are really only two positions that you want to target on the Blazers. The Heat are ranked 3rd or better against PG’s, SG’s, and SF’s in fantasy points allowed.

Robin Lopez – ROLO! Everyone loves Sideshow Bob when Aldridge is out of the lineup. The Heat struggle to defend the paint and they are the 2nd worst rebounding team in the league. Both of which bode well for ROLO tonight. He has seen a nice uptick in production with Adridge out and I think he will go overlooked tonight against the Heat.

Nicolas Batum – Batum has been spending some time at the 3 and the 4 lately and it will be interesting to see if they stick him on LeBron James. If so, this obviously hurts his value a little bit. That said, Batum has been on fire with Aldridge out of the lineup. Batum is averaging over 40 FP’s per game over his last 5 and has 14+ rebounds in 4 of his last 6 games.

Miami

The Heat will be without Dwyane Wade tonight which means Toney Douglas will likely draw another start at SG. He’s been decent in his starts this season, but Wade’s absence give the biggest boost to LeBron James, Chris Bosh, and Ray Allen. All three should see a nice uptick in production tonight. The Blazers are giving up the 6th most points per game this season and are ranked 14th or worse against all five positions on the floor over the last 15 days. I fully expect LeBron to be LeBron tonight, but if I’m spending top dollar on a player, I would rather pay up for Durant against the Nuggets.

Chris Bosh – Bosh has seen a nice uptick in shot attempts and production when Wade has been out of the lineup. He has a nice matchup against the Blazers and I have a hard time seeing Lopez defending him on the perimeter. Lopez won’t start on Bosh, but those two will likely be matched up for the majority of the game.

Ray Allen – Jesus Shuttlesworth won’t get the start for Wade, but he should see a small increase in playing time. He has really found his shooting stroke recently as he has scored at least 14 actual points in 5 of his last 6 games. He makes a nice punt option at SG tonight.

Indiana at Chicago

Vegas Line – Chicago -1.5, 178 Over/Under
Indiana Proj. Starters – Hill-Stephenson-George-West-Hibbert
Chicago Proj. Starters – Hinrich-Butler-Dunleavy-Boozer-Noah

Indiana

These two teams met the other night and my analysis of this game is going to be very similar. In their last meeting, the Pacers played well on both ends of the floor and picked up a 12 point win (91-79). The total for this game is right in that same range and is by far the lowest total of the night. These are 2 of the top 3 defenses in the league and there just won’t be enough possessions/opportunities for players in this one for me to target anyone. Paul George did manage to post a triple-double in their last meeting, but I don’t see a repeat performance tonight.

Chicago

The Bulls have the better matchup of the two teams as the Pacers play at a faster pace, but that’s not enough for me to heavily target anyone. The Pacers are ranked 7th or better against every position on the floor in fantasy points allowed. Joakim Noah could make a decent play as he posted 44 FP’s in their last meeting. That said, he doesn’t have that high ceiling against the Pacers that he does against some of the other teams. I see him maxing out at around 45 FP’s in this tough matchup.

Minnesota at Memphis

Vegas Line – Memphis -7.5, 197 Over/Under
Minnesota Proj. Starters – Rubio-Martin-Brewer-Love-Dieng
Memphis Proj. Starters – Conley-Lee-Prince-Randolph-Gasol

Minnesota

This will be a pace-down game for the Wolves tonight. The Grizzlies only average 92 possessions per game this season and really make an effort to establish their pace of play on their opponents. The Grizzlies are ranked 10th or better against all five positions this season in terms of fantasy points allowed. The only reason that you should be targeting any Wolves’ players tonight is if Nikola Pekovic has to sit out. If he is forced to sit, Gorgui Dieng makes a nice punt play at Center.

Memphis

The Grizzlies have a nice matchup tonight against the Wolves. This will be a pace-up game for the Grizzlies as the Wolves average 99 possessions per game. The Wolves have defended the PF position well of late, but are ranked 26th or worse against the other 4 positions over the last 15 days. Marc Gasol would be a great play here, but I’m a little worried about his sore ankle. Even though he isn’t the most fleet of foot player, a sore ankle really limits your ability to move around the floor.

Mike Conley – The Wolves are ranked 26th against PG’s this season and Rubio has just not improved any areas of his game (especially his defense). Conley has nice upside in this matchup and should be targeted on all sites tonight in cash games. He is averaging just over 30 FP’s per game in his last five.