NBA Grind Down: Monday, May 11th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!
Note: Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NBA Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review.
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Atlanta at Washington – 7:00 PM ET
- Vegas Line – Atlanta -4.5, 199 Over/Under
- Atlanta Proj. Starters – Teague-Korver-Carroll-Millsap-Horford
- Washington Proj. Starters – Sessions-Beal-Pierce-Hilario-Gortat
| Atlanta | Washington | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 199 |  | Vegas Total | 199 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -4.5 | Vegas Sprd | 4.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 101.8 | Team Proj. | 97.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.17 | Team Pace | 96.71 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Jeff Teague | Kyle Korver | DeMarre Carroll | Paul Millsap | Al Horford | Proj Starter | Ramon Sessions | Bradley Beal | Paul Pierce | Nene Hilario | Marcin Gortat | |
| Opp. Season | 13 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | Opp. Season | 16 | 15 | 12 | 13 | 5 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 8 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 5 | Opp. Last 7 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 2 | |
Atlanta
The Hawks almost completed a huge comeback against the Wizards in Game 3 and they did it with their bench. Kyle Korver was the only starter on the floor in the crunch time on Saturday night. The Hawks eventually fell short though and now desperately need a win tonight to tie the series at two games a piece. The Hawks are listed as 4.5-point favorites tonight in a game that John Wall will likely be forced to miss. This could very well be the deciding game in this series.
Opponent Breakdown (Washington)
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.6 (Rank: 9)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 5
Rebounding Differential Rank: 3
Elite Plays
Jeff Teague (FanDuel: $6900, DraftKings: $7000 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 24.9)
Teague was one of the many starters that found himself on the bench for the fourth quarter of Game 3’s loss against the Wizards. Even though he didn’t play in the fourth quarter, Teague still finished with 37 fantasy points in 33 minutes of playing time. Teague has the best individual matchup of any of the five Hawks’ starters, as he will face either Ramon Sessions or a hobbled John Wall. Dollar for dollar, Teague is the top point guard option tonight on FanDuel and DraftKings.
Kyle Korver (FD: $6100, DK: $6200 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 14.2)
Korver has had mixed results in this series, but he has scored at least 29 fantasy points in six of his first nine games in the postseason. Korver should fly under the radar tonight thanks to the other options at the position, making him a terrific tournament play in this small two-game slate. Korver should push for 40 minutes of playing time tonight in a pivotal Game 4. The Hawks could really use a hot shooting performance from their three-point connoisseur.
Secondary Plays
Paul Millsap (FD: $8800, DK: $8500 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 23.6)
Al Horford (FD: $7900, DK: $8100 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 22.3)
DeMarre Carroll (FD: $6900, DK: $7000 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 16.6)
Washington
John Wall is currently listed as a game-time decision for tonight’s Game 4, but it’s hard to imagine him playing. He hasn’t even attempted any on-court activities since hurting his wrist. If he is out again tonight, Ramon Sessions will draw another start at point guard. This is a huge game for the Wizards, as they can take a commanding 3-1 lead over the Hawks. They are small underdogs tonight, but Paul Pierce will have this team ready to play.
Opponent Breakdown (Atlanta)
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.2 (Rank: 5)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 7
Rebounding Differential Rank: 27
Elite Plays
Bradley Beal (FD: $7700, DK: $7900 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 22.2)
Beal is one of the only players that stand out as an absolute must-start in tonight’s small, two-game slate. He has scored at least 30 fantasy points in each of his last eight games, topping the 36 fantasy point mark four times. The Hawks haven’t had an answer for him in this series and with John Wall likely out again tonight, Beal will continue to be the focal point on offense. He has a higher floor than Klay Thompson, which makes him a better cash game option at that price point.
Otto Porter (FD: $5100, DK: $5600 / MPG: 19 / Usage Rate: 15.5)
Everyone keeps waiting for Porter to come crashing back down to Earth with a bad fantasy performance, but until that happens, he will remain an elite fantasy option at small forward. He has averaged 29 fantasy points in his last six games, playing an average of 33 minutes per contest during that stretch. Given his current level of production, his price is still too cheap on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
Paul Pierce (FD: $4900, DK: $5300 / MPG: 26 / Usage Rate: 20.1)
“The Truth” had a classic post-game interview after he hit the game-winner on Saturday night. Chris Broussard asked him if he called bank on that shot and Pierce simply replied, “I called game.” He then walked off to celebrate with his teammates. Pierce has been huge for the Wizards so far this postseason and there is no reason to think that doesn’t continue tonight in Game 4. Don’t be afraid to use the two Wizards’ small forwards together in both cash games and tournaments.
Nene Hilario (FD: $3800, DK: $4200 / MPG: 25 / Usage Rate: 22)
Hilario didn’t make a single field goal in the first two games of the series, but he bounced back nicely in Game 3 with 35 fantasy points in 30 minutes of action. Tonight is a perfect opportunity to buy low on Nene, as his price has dipped to one of its lowest points of the entire season. He only needs roughly 20 fantasy points to reach value, which should be an easy feat if he sees anywhere close to 30 minutes of playing time tonight.
Secondary Plays
Marcin Gortat (FD: $7300, DK: $7000 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 17.3)
Ramon Sessions (FD: $5900, DK: $5000 / MPG: 18 / Usage Rate: 19.3)
Golden State at Memphis – 9:30 PM ET
- Vegas Line – Golden State -5, 196 Over/Under
- Golden State Proj. Starters – Curry-Thompson-Barnes-Green-Bogut
- Memphis Proj. Starters – Conley-Lee-Allen-Randolph-Gasol
| Golden State | Memphis | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 196 |  | Vegas Total | 196 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -5.0 | Vegas Sprd | 5.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 100.5 | Team Proj. | 95.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 94.71 | Team Pace | 94.77 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Stephen Curry | Klay Thompson | Harrison Barnes | Draymond Green | Andrew Bogut | Proj Starter | Mike Conley | Courtney Lee | Tony Allen | Zach Randolph | Marc Gasol | |
| Opp. Season | 7 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 2 | Opp. Season | 6 | 6 | 11 | 22 | 16 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 3 | Opp. Last 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 6 | |
Golden State
The Warriors have looked out of sorts in the last two games in this series. The Grizzlies have been able to take Golden State’s offense out of their rhythm and doing so has allowed Memphis to take a 2-1 lead. The Warriors need a win tonight or they could be heading for an early playoff exit. The Warriors are listed as 5-point favorites in tonight’s Game 4 with their team total set at 100.5 points. Their total may be much lower than their season average, but it’s still the second-highest total on the board tonight.
Opponent Breakdown (Memphis)
Points Allowed Per Game: 95.2 (Rank: 2)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 4
Rebounding Differential Rank: 12
Elite Plays
Klay Thompson (FD: $7100, DK: $7400 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 27.3)
Thompson has been inconsistent, but he has scored at least 32 fantasy points in four of his last six games. He always has that 50-fantasy point type of upside, but he does have a relatively low floor, especially in a matchup against the Grizzlies. Bradley Beal is the better option in cash games, but both can be used on sites that require two shooting guards. Thompson gets the nod as the top play on the Warriors, as the rest of the players have struggled to reach value in this series.
Secondary Plays
Stephen Curry (FD: $10100, DK: $10300 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 28.4)
Draymond Green (FD: $8000, DK: $8000 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 17.2)
Andrew Bogut (FD: $5300, DK: $5300 / MPG: 24 / Usage Rate: 13.3)
Memphis
The Grizzlies picked up their second big win in a row to take a 2-1 lead in their series against the Warriors. After Game 1, no one gave the Grizzlies a chance in this series and all of the sudden, they are the favorites. They need a win tonight though, or they will lose home-court advantage. Vegas has the Grizzlies listed as 5-point underdogs, but it’s hard to see either team pull away from the other in this pivotal Game 4.
Opponent Breakdown (Golden State)
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.5 (Rank: 14)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 1
Rebounding Differential Rank: 12
Elite Plays
Marc Gasol (FD: $8700, DK: $8100 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 24.7)
Center has been a tough position to predict in the postseason, which is why I don’t mind paying up for Gasol every time he is on the schedule. He has scored at least 39 fantasy points in seven of his first eight playoff games this season. Gasol should see close to 40 minutes of playing time tonight in a pivotal Game 4. He is about as safe of a play as you are going to find in tonight’s two-game slate.
Zach Randolph (FD: $7200, DK: $7500 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 24.2)
Randolph has been a model of consistency in the Grizzlies’ second-round matchup against the Warriors. He has scored at least 34 fantasy points in each of the first three games, scoring at least 20 points and grabbing at least 7 rebounds in every contest. He has been able to use his size advantage over Draymond Green and if there is one thing that you can’t teach in basketball, it’s size. The Grizzlies will continue to pound the ball to Randolph in the post.
Tony Allen (FD: $5000, DK: $5600 / MPG: 26 / Usage Rate: 16.6)
Value is hard to come by in the NBA playoffs. In order to fit the more expensive players in our lineups, we have to shed some salary cap somewhere. One of my top value plays tonight is Tony Allen. He has scored at least 22 fantasy points in each of his last five games and he has seen a major uptick in minutes in this series. Through the first three games, Allen has averaged 37 minutes per game, which is markedly higher than his season average of 26.
Secondary Plays
Mike Conley (FD: $5800, DK: $5800 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 23.8)
Courtney Lee (FD: $3800, DK: $4800 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 15.2)