NBA Grind Down: Monday, November 3rd
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!
Note: DvP data is separated into Guards, Forwards, and Centers. Therefore PG and SG DvP data will be identical. This is temporary and will be separated soon. Also, any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review.
Click ‘Stat Chart’ Buttons Below for Pop-Ups of Essential Game-Specific Statistics including Defense vs. Position and Pace
Houston at Philadelphia
- Vegas Line – Houston -10, 202.5 Over/Under
- Houston Proj. Starters – Beverley-Harden-Ariza-Jones-Howard
- Philadelphia Proj. Starters – Wroten-Thompson-Richard Mbah a Moute-Noel-Sims
| Houston | Philadelphia | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 202 |  | Vegas Total | 202 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -10.0 | Vegas Sprd | 10.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 106.3 | Team Proj. | 96.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.89 | Team Pace | 100.44 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Patrick Beverley | James Harden | Trevor Ariza | Terrence Jones | Dwight Howard | Proj Starter | Tony Wroten | Hollis Thompson | Luc Richard Mbah a Moute | Nerlens Noel | Henry Sims | |
| Opp. Season | 29 | 29 | 6 | 6 | 28 | Opp. Season | 7 | 7 | 14 | 14 | 12 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 29 | 29 | 6 | 6 | 28 | Opp. Last 7 | 7 | 7 | 14 | 14 | 12 | |
Houston
The Rockets are one of only four teams are still undefeated. They’ve had one of the easiest opening schedules though as they have faced three potential lottery teams in the Lakers, Jazz, and Celtics. Tonight that trend continues as they square off against the 0-3 Sixers who were projected as the team with the lowest win total for this season. This is arguably the best matchup on the schedule tonight as the Sixers are ranked as the third fastest-paced team in the league. The Sixers have also given up 103.3 points per game to their opponents which is the sixth most in the league.
Dwight Howard and Patrick Beverley both participated in the morning shoot-around, but both are listed as questionable ahead of tonight’s game. They will both likely be game-time decisions so make sure to sign up for the NBA Newsletter & Lineup Alerts as we will provide you with all of the injury updates throughout the night. If Howard and/or Beverley are forced out of action, Terrence Jones, Donatas Motiejunas, and Isaiah Canaan would be the biggest beneficiaries.
Prime Plays
James Harden – If you are looking to anchor your team around one superstar tonight, Harden may be your best bet. While Anthony Davis is basically matchup-proof, his matchup against the Grizzlies still leaves much to be desired. Harden on the other hand draws a terrific matchup against the Sixers who continue to have one of the worst defenses in the NBA. On the season, Harden has a usage rate of 32.3 which is the fifth highest of any player in the NBA. The Rockets don’t have a true PG which puts the ball in Harden’s hands on almost every single possession. Harden is trying to prove that he’s the best player in the NBA and he may very well look the part tonight against the Sixers.
Terrence Jones – Jones has looked great in two games (42 and 39 FPs on FD) and awful in the other game (17 FPs on FD). That’s just what we have to expect out of Jones as he is typically the third or fourth option offensively. That could change tonight though depending on Dwight Howard’s status. If Howard is forced to miss tonight’s game, Jones becomes close to a must play at his price point. Even if Howard does play, Jones provides nice upside against the Sixers who have looked awful on the defensive end of the floor.
Secondary Plays
Trevor Ariza – Ariza should fly under the radar tonight. He’s been fairly quiet in his first three games with the Rockets this season, but he’s averaging 33 minutes per game on one of the best offenses in the NBA. He’s a nice play if you want some exposure to the Rockets, but don’t want to pay up for Harden.
Philadelphia
The Sixers have started their season off 0-3 which is actually a polar opposite of their record at this point last season. They are a very young team without a lot of promise, at least not in the immediate future. The good news is that they are still one of the fastest-paced teams in the league which makes them an interesting team to see on the schedule each night. Their matchup against the Rockets may not be as favorable as many may think as the Rockets have been very stout defensively this season, holding opponents to an average of 91 points per game which is the fourth lowest in the NBA.
The Sixers are currently dealing with an array of injuries. Michael Carter-Williams is still out which means Tony Wroten will continue to see all of the minutes he can handle at PG. Henry Sims is dealing with a respiratory infection and is currently listed as a game-time decision. If he is forced out of the lineup, Brandon Davies would likely get the start. Nerlens Noel could also see extended playing time in Sims’ absence.
Prime Plays
Tony Wroten – With MCW still out, Wroten is going to see huge minutes. The best part about Wroten is that he has a 28.7 usage rate which is the 11th highest of any player in the NBA. He’s certainly not a great shooter (20% from the three-point line, 57% from the free-throw line), but he can get to the basket as well as almost anyone. Wroten is also a terror on the defensive end as he has already racked up seven steals in the first three games. Wroten is a good play either way, but would be an excellent play if Dwight Howard has to sit out. The Rockets don’t have anyone else to protect the rim now that Omer Asik is in New Orleans.
Secondary Plays
Nerlens Noel – Noel has lived up to expectations thus far. He’s averaging 7 points, 8 rebounds, and 2 blocks per game. Those numbers aren’t overwhelming, but he should improve on them as the season progresses. That could start tonight as he could see extended playing time with Henry Sims questionable.
Hollis Thompson – Thompson has been a consistent value play this season. He has scored at least 18 FPs on FD in all three of the Sixers’ games. Thompson should get plenty of open looks tonight with James Harden defending him. The one issue is potential foul trouble defending Harden on the other end of the floor.
Oklahoma City at Brooklyn
- Vegas Line – Brooklyn -7, 192 Over/Under
- Oklahoma City Proj. Starters – Telfair-Roberson-Jones-Ibaka-Adams
- Brooklyn Proj. Starters – Williams-Bogdanovic-Johnson-Garnett-Lopez
| Oklahoma City | Brooklyn | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 192 |  | Vegas Total | 192 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 7.0 | Vegas Sprd | -7.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 92.5 | Team Proj. | 99.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.59 | Team Pace | 95.67 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Sebastian Telfair | Andre Roberson | Perry Jones | Serge Ibaka | Steven Adams | Proj Starter | Deron Williams | Bojan Bogdanovic | Joe Johnson | Kevin Garnett | Brook Lopez | |
| Opp. Season | 10 | 10 | 18 | 18 | 24 | Opp. Season | 13 | 13 | 10 | 10 | 23 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 10 | 10 | 18 | 18 | 24 | Opp. Last 7 | 13 | 13 | 10 | 10 | 23 | |
Oklahoma City
The Thunder have had some terrible luck to start the season. Kevin Durant went down with a broken foot and then Russell Westbrook went down with a broken hand. The Thunder are currently only 1-2, but they’ve been competitive in every game this season and I expect the same out of them tonight against the Nets. The absence of Westbrook and Durant has really opened up big minutes for Sebastian Telfair, Andre Roberson, and Perry Jones. All three were popular value plays on Friday night, but their prices have skyrocketed on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
We may see Reggie Jackson in action for the first time this season. He’s missed the first three games with an ankle injury, but he traveled with the team and is tentatively expected to be in the starting lineup tonight. The Thunder will be happy to have him back and he’ll take over as the primary play-maker in this offense. The only question that surrounds Jackson tonight is a potential minutes cap, especially with backup Sebastian Telfair playing as well as he has.
Prime Plays
Serge Ibaka – Ibaka has yet to have a big fantasy outing, but I’m expecting plenty from him while both Durant and Westbrook are on the shelf. Ibaka scored 23 points in limited minutes the other night and should have a much better all-around game tonight. He’s going to see an increase in shot attempts moving forward and having Reggie Jackson in the lineup may help open up things for Ibaka down low and in the pick and roll.
Perry Jones – Even though his price has gone up on both FD and DK, Jones is still an excellent play tonight. Even with Reggie Jackson expected back, Jones is going to see all of the minutes he can handle and he’s going to see somewhere in the range of 15-20 shot attempts. In his last two games, Jones has scored 42 and 32 fantasy points on FD. Expect another strong outing from Jones tonight against the Nets who are ranked 18th against SFs this season.
Secondary Plays
Andre Roberson – Roberson has also taken advantage of increased playing time and increased opportunity in the offense. In his last two games, he has scored 21 and 28 FPs on FD. He should see 35+ minutes of action again tonight against the Nets.
Reggie Jackson – Jackson could be a terrific play tonight if the Thunder unleash him without a minutes restriction. The problem is that there is a big IF in that statement, especially given the fact that Sebastian Telfair has played well in his absence.
Brooklyn
The Nets are 1-1 to start the season. Both of their first two games have been high scoring, but they’ve played at an average pace as they have averaged 96 possessions per 48 minutes. Tonight they face a Thunder team that plays at a similar pace of play. The Thunder have held their opponents to 96.7 points per game this season, but the Nets are 7-point favorites in tonight’s game that features a total of 192 points. The matchup for the Nets shouldn’t be avoided completely, but there are certainly better matchups to exploit tonight.
Brook Lopez is expected to be back in the lineup tonight after missing the first two games of the season with a foot injury. Lopez is a very talented big man that can be a go-to scorer in the post. He should really help take some of the pressure off of Deron Williams offensively. Lopez should be a reliable fantasy option moving forward, but you may want to give him a game or two to get acclimated into this offense.
Prime Plays
Deron Williams – Williams may not be shooting the ball well (13/35 this season), but he’s had two productive fantasy outings in the Nets’ first two games. The most promising statistic is that he is averaging 40 minutes per game which is something that we didn’t see last season. If that trend continues, he should easily pay off his moderate salary tonight against the injury-plagued Thunder. Having Brook Lopez back in the lineup tonight only helps D-Will’s fantasy outlook.
Secondary Plays
Joe Johnson – In the first two games of the season, Johnson is averaging 27 points, 7 rebounds, and 5 assists per game. I expect those numbers to tail off throughout the course of the season, but he’s a streaky player that is playing well.
New Orleans at Memphis
- Vegas Line – Memphis -4, 187 Over/Under
- New Orleans Proj. Starters – Holiday-Gordon-Evans-Davis-Asik
- Memphis Proj. Starters – Conley-Allen-Prince-Randolph-Gasol
| New Orleans | Memphis | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 187 |  | Vegas Total | 187 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 4.0 | Vegas Sprd | -4.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 91.5 | Team Proj. | 95.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 97.89 | Team Pace | 94.25 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Jrue Holiday | Eric Gordon | Tyreke Evans | Anthony Davis | Omer Asik | Proj Starter | Mike Conley | Tony Allen | Tayshaun Prince | Zach Randolph | Marc Gasol | |
| Opp. Season | 3 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 16 | Opp. Season | 4 | 4 | 23 | 23 | 27 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 16 | Opp. Last 7 | 4 | 4 | 23 | 23 | 27 | |
New Orleans
The Pelicans are a team that is going to be fun to watch this season. They have three talented guards and the best big man in the game. I am not hesitant at all to call Anthony Davis the best big man in basketball, especially if we are talking about fantasy production. The Pelicans have picked up the pace this season with Jrue Holiday back at the helm. They are averaging 97.9 possessions per 48 minutes which is ranked in the top 10 this season.
Tonight the Pelicans square off against the Grizzlies in a game that the lowest total of the night by far. The Grizzlies have the eighth slowest pace of play this season and are holding opponents to an average of 86.3 points per game which is the lowest in the NBA. The Grizzlies like to slow the pace of the game down and force opponents to play them in the half-court. That doesn’t bode well for the Pelicans fantasy outlook tonight.
Prime Plays
Anthony Davis – Davis is one of the few players in the NBA that is close to matchup-proof. You typically want to avoid big men against the Grizzlies, but that’s not the case with The Brow. In three games against the Grizzlies last season, Davis averaged 25 points, 10 rebounds, 2 assists, 4 blocks, and 3 steals per game. Not only that, but Davis is an even better player this season. Davis should be treated as one of the top overall fantasy options every night he steps on the floor. Tonight could be a great night to target him in GPPs as his ownership should be lower than it is on most nights.
Secondary Plays
NONE
Memphis
The Grizzlies are 3-0 to start the season with wins over the Timberwolves, Pacers, and Hornets. They’ve done it by playing great defense and being by efficient offensively. The Grizzlies are usually a tough team to predict on a nightly basis because they are 1. well-balanced offensively and 2. don’t score many points. A lot of DFS players typically avoid both teams when the Grizzlies are involved, but there are a couple of Grizzlies that are in play tonight against the Pelicans.
Courtney Lee is questionable for tonight’s game after suffering a concussion last week. Don’t be surprised to see the Grizzlies hold him out another game or two. If Lee is forced to sit tonight, Tony Allen should see all of the minutes he can handle at SG and Tayshaun Prince would likely get another start at SF.
Prime Plays
Marc Gasol – Gasol has a usage rate of 27.4 this season which easily the highest of any player on the Grizzlies. He is extremely involved in this offense and the numbers have shown that as he is averaging 25 points, 8 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 block, and 1 steal through the first three games of the season. Gasol can fill up all areas of the stat sheet and so far the Pelicans have given up some big games to opposing centers (see: Nikola Vucevic).
Secondary Plays
Tony Allen – Allen’s offensive skill set may be limited, but he’s seeing extended playing time with Courtney Lee out. Lee is listed as questionable for tonight’s game, but is likely to sit again after suffering a concussion last week. Allen is cheap and is a solid value play at the SG position.
Boston at Dallas
- Vegas Line – Dallas -9.5, 208.5 Over/Under
- Boston Proj. Starters – Rondo-Bradley-Green-Sullinger-Olynyk
- Dallas Proj. Starters – Nelson-Ellis-Parsons-Nowitzki-Chandler
| Boston | Dallas | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 208 |  | Vegas Total | 208 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 9.5 | Vegas Sprd | -9.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 99.5 | Team Proj. | 109.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 102.77 | Team Pace | 93.02 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Rajon Rondo | Avery Bradley | Jeff Green | Jared Sullinger | Kelly Olynyk | Proj Starter | Jameer Nelson | Monta Ellis | Chandler Parsons | Dirk Nowitzki | Tyson Chandler | |
| Opp. Season | 21 | 21 | 22 | 22 | 2 | Opp. Season | 27 | 27 | 25 | 25 | 1 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 21 | 21 | 22 | 22 | 2 | Opp. Last 7 | 27 | 27 | 25 | 25 | 1 | |
Boston
The Celtics have been a surprisingly fast-paced team in their first two games. Whether or not that will hold up over the course of the season is yet to be seen, but they have made an effort to increase their pace in the early going with 102.7 possessions per 48 minutes. Tonight’s matchup against the Mavericks features the highest total of the night at 209 points. As long as this one doesn’t get out of hand, it will be full of viable fantasy options from both teams.
Prime Plays
Rajon Rondo – Rondo has played well this season. He is averaging 8 points, 8 rebounds, 10 assists, and 2 steals per game and his ability to contribute in multiple statistical categories gives him a high floor. As we all know, a high floor is a coveted ability in cash games. Tonight he faces a Mavericks team that will be without Raymond Felton again. Look for Rondo to excel in an uptempo game against a below average defender in Jameer Nelson.
Jared Sullinger – There were high hopes for Sullinger heading into the season. While he hasn’t exactly wowed anyone in the first two games, he’s averaging 29 FPs per game on FD. He should have his best game of the season tonight against Dirk Nowitzki and the Mavs in what should be a high scoring affair. I’ve said this before, but buy low on Sullinger while you still can.
Secondary Plays
Kelly Olynyk – I was tempted to put in a Jeff Green recommendation here, but he wore out his welcome in this space last season after putting up dud performances in prime matchups time and time again. Instead, I’ll take my chances with Olynyk who has averaged 13 points, 6 rebounds, and 2 steals through the first two games.
Dallas
The Mavericks have wasted little time in creating chemistry with their new acquisitions. Tyson Chandler looks right at home, Chandler Parsons has slowly played better each game, and Jameer Nelson has done a nice job of managing the game. The Mavericks could easily be 3-0 right now if they could have pulled off the win against the Spurs on opening night.
With the Celtics playing at a quicker pace this season, that bodes well for the Mavericks tonight. Based on the line and the total, they are projected to score 109 points which is the highest of any team on the schedule. Raymond Felton has been ruled out of tonight’s game which means Jameer Nelson and Devin Harris will continue to split the minutes at PG. It also means Monta Ellis will continue to see more time as the primary ball-handler in this offense.
Prime Plays
Monta Ellis – Even though Jameer Nelson starts at PG, Ellis typically runs the Mavericks offense and it’s shown in his stats through the first few games. Ellis is averaging 19 points, 5 rebounds, and 5 assists per game with a usage rate of 26.6. Ellis is typically thought of as a high-upside tournament play, but I see him as having a high-floor in this offense. He’s a good target in all league formats tonight against the Celtics.
Secondary Plays
Chandler Parsons – After a quite outing in the opener against the Spurs, Parsons has averaged 21 points, 5 rebounds, and 3 assists per game in his last two. I like his chances to put up a quality outing in an uptempo battle against the Celtics.
Tyson Chandler – Chandler doesn’t have much of an offensive game, but he is tough to keep off the glass and is a great shot-blocker. He has scored at least 23 FPs on FD in every game this season and should keep the streak alive tonight.
Sacramento at Denver
- Vegas Line – Denver -7, 202 Over/Under
- Sacramento Proj. Starters – Collison-McLemore-Gay-Thompson-Cousins
- Denver Proj. Starters – Lawson-Afflalo-Gallinari-Faried-Mozgov
| Sacramento | Denver | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 202 |  | Vegas Total | 202 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 7.0 | Vegas Sprd | -7.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 97.5 | Team Proj. | 104.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 97.33 | Team Pace | 99.36 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Darren Collison | Ben McLemore | Rudy Gay | Jason Thompson | DeMarcus Cousins | Proj Starter | Ty Lawson | Arron Afflalo | Danilo Gallinari | Kenneth Faried | Timofey Mozgov | |
| Opp. Season | 1 | 1 | 30 | 30 | 17 | Opp. Season | 23 | 23 | 5 | 5 | ||
| Opp. Last 7 | 1 | 1 | 30 | 30 | 17 | Opp. Last 7 | 23 | 23 | 5 | 5 | ||
Sacramento
The Kings pulled off a huge win yesterday over the Clippers. We are only three games into the season and I’m not buying them as a playoff team by any means, but they are certainly a much-improved ball club with Darren Collison as their PG. It’s amazing how little tension there is when you have a PG that actually likes to pass the ball (no offense Isaiah Thomas, big fan). Sacramento has been playing at a quick pace this season, averaging 97.3 possessions per 48 minutes.
The Kings have one of the better matchups on the board tonight. Through their first two games, the Nuggets have averaged 99.4 possessions per game which is the fifth most in the NBA. Don’t pay attention to the fact that they have held their opponents to 90.5 points per game, that’s an aberration more than anything. While Aaron Afflalo is a solid defender, the rest of the Nuggets lineup could certainly improve on that side of the ball.
Prime Plays
DeMarcus Cousins – Cousins is coming off of a monster performance against the Clippers in which he had 34 points, 17 rebounds, 5 assists, and 3 blocks. Cousins upside is as high as anyone’s in the NBA, but the issue with him is typically the fact that he has a low floor thanks to being prone to foul trouble and a bad attitude. That said, I will be firing him up as a top play tonight against the Nuggets who have one of the worst interior defenses in the league.
Rudy Gay – Gay’s usage rate is 25.5 which is the 32nd highest in the league. The Kings offense basically consists of Collison, Gay, and Cousins. Through his first three games, Gay is averaging 26 points, 8 rebounds, and 2 assists per game. He draws a favorable matchup against the Nuggets in what should be one of the fastest paced games of the night.
Secondary Plays
Darren Collison – Collison is a great fit for this Kings’ offense. Through the first three games, he is averaging 15 points, 6 rebounds, and 7 assists, and 2 steals per game. He draws a favorable matchup against the Nuggets who have not defended the PG position well over the last two seasons.
Denver
The Nuggets have only managed to muster up 90 points per game this season, despite being averaging the fifth most possessions per game. Their offense has certainly gotten off to a slow start and a lot of that has to do with the play of their PG Ty Lawson. He should turn things around quickly in Denver and I expect them to be in the top 10 in points per game soon enough.
The Nuggets draw a favorable matchup against the Kings tonight who also like to push the pace. The Nuggets are 7-point favorites in a game that features a total of 202 points. All five starters on the Nuggets are worth a look tonight except for Danilo Gallinari. He is still on a minutes cap which severely limits his fantasy value.
Prime Plays
Kenneth Faried – Faried has always been a better GPP play than a cash game play, but I expect that to change this season even though he has yet to show it. He is a bigger part of the Nuggets offense and his minutes should be more consistent. When all is said and done, I expect him to average a double-double this season. He has a terrific matchup tonight against Jason Thompson and the Kings. Faried should be able to roam the paint defensively and be aggressive on the glass.
Secondary Plays
Ty Lawson – Lawson is off to a slow start this season, but it was somewhat expected after he missed time in the preseason due to a nagging ankle injury. While he may be a bit too risky for cash games, he makes a nice upside play tonight in tournaments.