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NBA Grind Down: Saturday, April 25th

by Taylor Ezell (ezellmt) Last Updated 2015-04-28 16:54:01

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!

Note: Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NBA Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review.

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Atlanta at Brooklyn – 3:00 PM ET

Atlanta Brooklyn
atlantanba Vegas Total 201 brooklynnba Vegas Total 201
Vegas Sprd -2.5 Vegas Sprd 2.5
Team Proj. 101.8 Team Proj. 99.3
Team Pace 95.91 Team Pace 95.91
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Jeff Teague Kyle Korver DeMarre Carroll Paul Millsap Al Horford Proj Starter Deron Williams Bojan Bogdanovic Joe Johnson Thaddeus Young Brook Lopez
Opp. Season 15 25 7 27 17 Opp. Season 17 16 10 13 11
Opp. Last 7 9 11 9 3 11 Opp. Last 7 10 5 3 2 12

Atlanta

The Hawks enter this game with a commanding 2-0 lead, although the games have been much closer than most predicted. Vegas has set the Hawks as three point favorites, so they are expecting another close game. The Hawks have been their usual balanced selves in the first two games, as no player has exceeded 21 points in a game. Because of this balanced approach, the Hawks are difficult to target for fantasy, but there are still some decent options to be had.

Elite Plays

Kyle Korver – Kyle Korver has been arguably the best Hawks player thus far in the series and has scored 21 and 17 points in the respective games. He has had six steals through the first two games, which is likely unsustainable, but he has also only had four assists, a number that could increase slightly going forward. Unfortunately his price has come up dramatically on DraftKings, but he remains a reasonable $5,300 on FanDuel.

Secondary Plays

Al Horford – Considering there are only eight teams in play (a lot for the postseason obviously, but not compared to a typical regular season slate), the center position is loaded with viable options. Selecting the right center could be the difference in cashing or not, and Horford makes for a solid choice. He is the third-most expensive option on both major sites, but could equal the production of the two higher-priced options. His floor is about 30 FPTSs and has the potential for 40+, especially if he can pile up some blocks and steals.

DeMarre Carroll – Carroll is a player that I don’t often find myself rostering because he is essentially the last option on offense, but he consistently finds a way to stuff the stat sheet night in and night out. Carroll shot 41% from three this season on the road, compared to 36% at home, so he could be in for a few triples. He is coming off of a bad game by his standards (1-for-8 with two points), but should rebound with a bounce-back performance on Saturday.

Note: Paul Millsap and Jeff Teague are also a viable options, but neither have a great deal of upside compared to some of the players at a similar price and position.

Brooklyn

The Nets have played well for the first two games of this series, but have nothing to show for it other than a 0-2 deficit. Jarrett Jack almost single-handedly won them Game 2 with 23 points off the bench, but ultimately fell short. The Hawks defense has been great all year, but the Nets have scored 91 and 92 points in the first two games and are projected to exceed that total on Saturday.

Elite Plays

Joe Johnson – Johnson hasn’t shot the ball particularly well thus far in the series (12-for-33 for 36%), but that hasn’t stopped him from scoring 35+ FPTS in both games, largely due to averaging 41 minutes per game. The minutes will likely continue to be in the 40s and Johnson’s shot should start falling at a higher percentage. In a relatively weak shooting guard pool, Johnson is one of the safest bets out there.

Secondary Plays

Brook Lopez – Along with Johnson, Lopez has been the best player for the Nets this series and is continuing his excellent play from the end of the regular season. Despite not being featured frequently in the offense (which is a shame), Lopez has averaged 18.5 points per game this series to go along with 10.5 rebounds and 1.5 blocks. If the Nets are to get back in this series, they’ll need Lopez to be a dominant force in the paint.

Alan Anderson – I thought about Bojan Bogdanovic here, but his price is too high for the inconsistency that he provides. Anderson is also a hit or miss player, but is essentially min-price on all sites, so the risk is small. Anderson played 30 minutes last game and seems to be in favor over Markel Brown, who received a DNP-CD in Game 3. If Anderson receives 30 minutes again on Saturday, he’s a good bet to pay off his minimal asking price.

Chicago at Milwaukee – 5:30 PM ET

Chicago Milwaukee
chicagonba Vegas Total 188 milwaukeenba Vegas Total 188
Vegas Sprd -5.0 Vegas Sprd 5.0
Team Proj. 96.8 Team Proj. 91.8
Team Pace 97.12 Team Pace 97.12
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Derrick Rose Jimmy Butler Mike Dunleavy Pau Gasol Joakim Noah Proj Starter Michael Carter-Williams Khris Middleton Giannis Antetokounmpo Ersan Ilyasova Zaza Pachulia
Opp. Season 1 7 23 14 15 Opp. Season 25 3 17 11 7
Opp. Last 7 15 9 5 9 3 Opp. Last 7 7 7 8 5 10

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Chicago

The Bulls are looking to complete the sweep, fresh off of a double-overtime victory. The Bulls are notorious for riding their starters throughout the regular season and playoffs, so I’m sure they will be looking to finish things off to get some rest before the next series. Derrick Rose’s emergence into playoff form has the team thinking about a deep playoff run.

Elite Plays

Derrick Rose – Playoff Derrick Rose is the best Derrick Rose. He has been a monster thus far in the series, including a massive 34-point, 8-assist performance in the last game (although it did go to double overtime). Rose hasn’t had less than seven assists thus far and is attacking the rim as well as shooting the 3-ball well (10-for-22 in the series). His price has come up on DraftKings ($7,700), but he almost a must-play on FanDuel, where his price is still at $6,100.

Taj Gibson – Gibson is the clear #1 value option for today, as Mirotic is out for the game, which means Gibson is set to play about 30 minutes in his absence. His price is still reflective of someone receiving 20 minutes a game, so we can take advantage of the steep discount. Gibson had ten rebounds last game in 29 minutes and is always a double-double threat. I predict he’ll get one on Saturday (I’ll say 13 points, 11 rebounds) and easily reach value.

Secondary Plays

Pau Gasol – The best part about rostering Pau Gasol is that you know exactly what you’re getting every night. He’s going to play at least 35 minutes and get you a double-double with several blocks. The difference between his floor (40 points) and ceiling (48 points) is relatively small, but it’s a luxury knowing that he’s going to give you consistent production every night.

Note: Joakim Noah is a solid choice at center, but I prefer a few of the other options slightly more. Noah contributes in a variety of categories, but he hasn’t exceeded six actual points in 10+ games.

Milwaukee

The Bucks are trying to avoid being swept after losing a heart-breaking double-overtime thriller in Game 3. No one expects this series to go much further, but the Bucks will want to give their home fans something to cheer about and I expect them to put up a decent showing in an elimination game. In addition to the ought matchup, Jason Kidd’s rotations can be frustrating for DFS purposes, which makes the Bucks are one of the least targetable teams today.

Elite Plays

Kris Middleton – Many expected this series to be a coming out part for either Michael Carter-Williams or Giannis Antetokounmpo (why does everyone on the Bucks have such a long name?), but it has been Middleton who has been the most consistent in the series. Despite seeing the tough defense of Jimmy Butler, Middleton has scored at least 18 points in all three games. The shooting guard position is thin (as usual), which makes Middleton an even more appealing option on Saturday.

Secondary Plays

Giannis Antetokounmpo – After struggling in Games 1 and 2, Antetokounmpo finally had a breakout performance in Game 3 where he scored 25 points and pulled down 12 rebounds. The Greek Freak is seemingly immune to Kidd’s inconsistent rotations as Kidd realized that Antetokounmpo on the court often gives his team the best chance to win. Like shooting guard, small forward is thin, so Antetokounmpo will likely be highly owned on this four-game slate.

Note: Carter-Williams, Ilysova, and Pachulia are all in play, but make for contrarian plays due to the depth at each of their positions.

Golden State at New Orleans – 8:00 PM ET

Golden State New Orleans
goldenstatenba Vegas Total 205 neworleansnba Vegas Total 205
Vegas Sprd -7.5 Vegas Sprd 7.5
Team Proj. 106.3 Team Proj. 98.8
Team Pace 96.97 Team Pace 96.97
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Stephen Curry Klay Thompson Harrison Barnes Draymond Green Andrew Bogut Proj Starter Tyreke Evans Eric Gordon Quincy Pondexter Anthony Davis Omer Asik
Opp. Season 14 15 11 7 19 Opp. Season 7 6 13 22 16
Opp. Last 7 14 12 11 15 13 Opp. Last 7 5 4 12 10 7

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Golden State

The Warriors pulled off one of the most remarkable comebacks in NBA playoff history on Thursday, rallying from 20 down in the fourth quarter to force overtime. Stephen Curry hit one of the most ridiculous buzzer-beaters that you will ever see to force overtime, where the Warriors went on to win. The Warriors are riding high and have a sweep on their minds so they can rest up for the next series.

Elite Plays

Stephen Curry – By Curry’s lofty standards, he hadn’t played that well up until his 40-point, 9-assist outburst in Game 3. He has averaged 32 points per game so far, but is only shooting 35% from deep, which is well-below his season average of 44.3%. If Curry’s threes start to fall, he could be in for another monster fantasy performance en route to being the highest scorer of the evening.

Klay Thompson – The other half of the Splash Brother duo doesn’t get quite the publicity or praise that Curry does (deservedly so), but he is still a phenomenal performer, both in real life and for fantasy purposes. He has averaged 38 FPTS per game this series on DraftKings, where he greatly benefits from the bonus points for made threes. Thompson has established a high floor and high ceiling, which means he can be targeted in both cash and GPPs.

Draymond Green – Green has been an animal on the boards this series and has easily averaged a double-double to go along with three steals in every game. He has eclipsed 45 DK FP’s in all three games despite being priced under $8K in all of them. His price has finally come up, but he has one of the highest floors of any player due to his ability to produce in all five major categories. Many will opt to pay up for Davis or Aldridge, which could make Green an underowned option for Saturday.

Secondary Plays

Andrew Bogut – Bogut has been an elite play for the past three games, but unfortunately his price has finally caught up to him, moving him down to a secondary play. His minutes have been up during the playoffs, and his production has followed suit. The Warriors deployed a smaller lineup to get back into Game 3, but I fully expect Bogut to see 30 minutes again in Game 4.

New Orleans

The Pelicans have to be feeling heartbroken after blowing a 20-point lead in Game 3, but the Warriors won’t be feeling sorry for them. Vegas has the Pelicans as a seven-point underdog in the highest projected total for the slate. The Pelicans will likely lean heavily on Anthony Davis, who has been tremendous thus far in the series.

Elite Plays

Anthony Davis – The Pelicans might be down 0-3 in the series, but Davis isn’t to blame for the lack of wins. He has averaged 30 points, 11 rebounds, and 3 blocks through the first three games of the series. The Pelicans will need another monster performance from AD to stay alive in the series, and he makes for an excellent building block for your DFS lineups.

Tyreke Evans – Some people would argue that Evans isn’t a great real-life basketball player, but he has proven to be an excellent fantasy performer due to his ability to contribute in all categories. Excluding Game 1 in which he left due to injury, Evans has exceeded 40 DK FPTs in both games this series. There are several great point guard options, so Evans could be a slightly contrarian option.

Secondary Plays

Ryan Anderson – Anderson is the quintessential boom-or-bust play. His playing time isn’t guaranteed and only plays when his shot is falling or the team is going small. Last game, he caught fire en route to scoring 26 points despite only attempting three threes. Anderson can’t be trusted in cash games, but he could be the home run needed to take down a GPP for near minimum price.

Memphis at Portland – 10:30 PM ET

Memphis Portland
memphisnba Vegas Total 188 portlandnba Vegas Total 188
Vegas Sprd 3.0 Vegas Sprd -3.0
Team Proj. 92.8 Team Proj. 95.75
Team Pace 94.22 Team Pace 94.22
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Mike Conley Courtney Lee Tony Allen Zach Randolph Marc Gasol Proj Starter Damian Lillard Arron Afflalo Nicolas Batum LaMarcus Aldridge Robin Lopez
Opp. Season 28 22 12 1 5 Opp. Season 6 8 8 4 2
Opp. Last 7 16 6 13 6 15 Opp. Last 7 2 1 4 16 8

Memphis

The Grizzlies used one of the most impactful home-court advantages to their benefit in dominating the first two games of this series. The Grizzlies trademark defense has been stifling, while their offense has scored at least 97 points in both games. Memphis isn’t quite as good on the road, which is reflected in the Vegas odds, which has the Grizzlies as a three-point underdog.

Elite Plays

Marc Gasol – Much like he did in the first half of the season, Gasol is playing at an MVP level this series. One of Gasol’s only knocks has been that he doesn’t shoot the ball enough, but Gasol has attempted at least 15 shots in every game, a positive sign for both the Grizzlies and DFS players looking to roster Gasol. He has averaged a double-double in the series and is always a threat to contribute assists and blocks as well. There are plenty of viable options at center, but I expect Gasol to be the highest scoring one at the end of the night.

Secondary Plays

Mike Conley – Conley finally looked like himself in Game 2 when he scored 18 points with 6 assists in the Grizzlies’ victory. He played 29 minutes and probably would have played more had the game been in question late. Beno Udrih is questionable, and if he can’t go, then Conley could be asked to play 35+ minutes. While most will flock to Curry and Rose, Conley could make for a nice contrarian play in tournaments.

Note: Courtney Lee, Jeff Green, Tony Allen, and Zach Randolph can all be played sparingly, but all but Randolph lack significant upside, and ZBo has one of the toughest matchups against LaMarcus Aldridge.

Portland

Portland has been humiliated in the first two games. It’s not just that they have been beaten, it’s that Memphis has imposed its will on them. The Blazers have yet to eclipse 86 points in the first two games, which is something they’ll need to do to win their first game of the series. Portland is expected to get Arron Afflalo and Chris Kaman back, which helps the team, but further muddies the DFS waters. Memphis is obviously an elite defensive team, so no Trail Blazers stand out as excellent fantasy options.

Elite Plays

None.

Secondary Plays

LaMarcus Aldridge – LMA has taken an astounding 54 shots during the first two games of this series, leading to consecutive 50+ FPTs on both major sites. While he’s unlikely to keep up this pace, the team needs him to score to stay competitive, so it wouldn’t surprise me to see Aldridge continue to attempt 20+ shots per game. Aldridge has also had four blocks in each of the first two games, which could continue due to his significant length advantage over the shorter Randolph.

Nicolas Batum – Outside of Aldridge, no one for Portland has really played well in this series. Batum has probably been the second-best, although he is shooting just 10-for-27 (37%) from the field. Batum isn’t a great scorer, but he finds ways to contribute in both rebounds and assists, which gives him a high floor. As I’ve noted above, the small forward position is thin, so Batum’s consistency goes a long way in providing stability to the position.

Note: Lillard has been extremely quiet in this series. If you think this is the game he breaks out, feel free to take a chance on him as he’ll have a very low ownership percentage.

About the Author

ezellmt
Taylor Ezell (ezellmt)