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NBA Grind Down: Saturday, April 4th - Page Two

by Ryan138 Last Updated 2015-04-05 20:18:05

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Golden State at Dallas – 8:30 PM EST

Golden State Dallas
goldenstatenba Vegas Total 211 dallasnba Vegas Total 211
Vegas Sprd -5.0 Vegas Sprd 5.0
Team Proj. 108.3 Team Proj. 103.3
Team Pace 100.56 Team Pace 97.08
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Stephen Curry Klay Thompson Harrison Barnes Draymond Green Andrew Bogut Proj Starter Rajon Rondo Monta Ellis Chandler Parsons Dirk Nowitzki Tyson Chandler
Opp. Season 19 12 20 16 15 Opp. Season 7 6 9 19 16
Opp. Last 7 11 25 14 28 20 Opp. Last 7 27 1 11 29 3

Golden State

These last few games of the season are very tough to get a gauge on what teams will do with their starters. The Warriors are 10.5 games ahead of the Houston Rockets and only have a battle with the Atlanta Hawks for the overall one seed. This should result in fewer minutes across the board for their starters, and really makes the big names tournament plays only for me. Golden State is only a 5-point favorite, but the total is huge at 212. News has come out that Draymond Green will be playing. Even though it is a good matchup, I do not trust that he will get a full amount of minutes to play him tonight.

Elite Plays

Klay Thompson – The one guy I think you can trust to reach value tonight is Klay. He only needs around 35 fantasy points tonight for value and should be able to do that in his 30-33 minutes he should play.

Secondary Plays

Stephen Curry – Steph is a tournament play only as he has not reached value in his last three games. He does always have 60-point potential and it could be done in this up-tempo matchup against a defensively struggling Rondo.

Dallas

Dallas has been another team that all year has been tough to play, even though they are one of the top scoring teams in the league. They spread the ball around a lot and the starters don’t play huge minutes. A bit of fantasy potential should open up tonight, though, as they are playing the Warriors in a projected close game. Chandler Parsons won’t play, so Richard Jefferson will start and is a deep punt play.

Elite Plays

None

Secondary Plays

Monte Ellis – He has been hit or miss over the course of the season, but is priced pretty cheap and has played 37 and 38 minutes in the last two games. He has struggled against the Warriors in their last two games, which is why he is a tournament play only tonight.

Orlando at Milwaukee – 8:30 PM EST

Orlando Milwaukee
orlandonba Vegas Total 194 milwaukeenba Vegas Total 194
Vegas Sprd 8.0 Vegas Sprd -8.0
Team Proj. 93.0 Team Proj. 101.0
Team Pace 95.95 Team Pace 96.22
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Elfrid Payton Victor Oladipo Tobias Harris Nikola Vucevic Dewayne Dedmon Proj Starter Michael Carter-Wiliams Khris Middleton Giannis Antetokounmpo Ersan Ilyasova Zaza Pachulia
Opp. Season 1 15 25 13 18 Opp. Season 22 10 30 22 21
Opp. Last 7 2 22 26 15 5 Opp. Last 7 1 10 13 19 11

Orlando

Orlando has a number of good, young players, but this has not resulted in wins this year. The Magic have recently lost 10 of their last 12 games and are now road underdogs to a rising Milwaukee squad. Early indications show that Ridnour and Fournier should continue to be out for the Magic, which opens up minutes at guard for their other players.

Elite Plays

Tobias Harris – When you look at salary, minutes and production, Harris becomes my favorite of the Magic players tonight. In his four games since returning from injury, Harris is playing 36+ minutes in each and is coming off his best performance yet, with 25 points and 12 rebounds against Minnesota. He has a great match up against the Bucks who are 25th ranked against the small forward position.

Nikola Vucevic – Vucevic finally put up one of those big games we have come to expect every so often from him as he went for 60 fantasy points against the T-Wolves last night. I am not sure we will see a repeat performance, but his price on DraftKings is too good to pass up at under 8k.

Secondary Plays

I have Elfrid Payton and Victor Oladipo in the same boat for this game. They both are going to play a ton of minutes and have potential big games in them, but their salaries have risen to a point where they are better suited for tournament plays tonight.

Milwaukee

The Bucks are peaking at the right time it seems as they are rolling into the playoffs after a big win against the Bulls and another win against the Celtics last night. They will look to continue this solid play tonight against a Magic squad who would just like to see their season come to an end. The Bucks are 8-point favorites in this match up with a total of 194.

Elite Plays

O.J. Mayo – At his price, Mayo will be one of the higher used value plays tonight. He is coming off a huge 44-point performance and should be used in all formats for near minimum price.

Secondary Plays

Ersan Ilyasova – I like his price much more at FanDuel tonight as he is under 6k there. His minutes fluctuate a bit, but he has a great matchup against the Magic who rank 26th in the league against the power forward position over the last three weeks.

Michael Carter-Williams – MCW has played much better over the last two games and has 32+ fantasy points in each. This will be a nice battle between two run-and-gun point guards tonight and should produce some high upside fantasy performances.

L.A. Clippers at Denver – 9:00 PM EST

L.A. Clippers Denver
laclippersnba Vegas Total 216 denvernba Vegas Total 216
Vegas Sprd -9.0 Vegas Sprd 9.0
Team Proj. 112.5 Team Proj. 103.5
Team Pace 97.02 Team Pace 98.41
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Chris Paul J.J. Redick Matt Barnes Blake Griffin DeAndre Jordan Proj Starter Ty Lawson Randy Foye Wilson Chandler Danilo Gallinari Kenneth Faried
Opp. Season 8 29 29 30 27 Opp. Season 3 17 28 15 14
Opp. Last 7 12 28 19 27 29 Opp. Last 7 14 29 21 26 10

L.A. Clippers

Sitting just a few games out of the second seed in the West, the Clippers will be looking to continue their hot play as the regular season comes to an end. The Clippers have won eight of their last nine games while only losing to the number one seed Warriors. They now travel to Denver in what should be a fast paced game as the Nuggets allowed the fourth-most points per game in the league. The Clippers are the biggest favorite on the board tonight and the blowout is in play.

Elite Plays

Chris Paul – Paul may have been a bit upset at seeing his defensive highlight everywhere you looked a few days ago. He came out and put up 79 fantasy points against the Trail Blazers and shut up anyone who was laughing at him. He now has another solid matchup against Denver, who struggle on the defensive end and should have another solid performance. He is priced much better at DK where he is under 10k.

Blake Griffin – His price jumped at FD, but he is still underpriced at DK. In his last three games, he looks finally back and comfortable for the Clippers as he has put up three straight 40+ fantasy performances. Targeting bigs against the Nuggets has been a profitable strategy for a while now, and it doesn’t stop tonight.

Secondary Plays

J.J. Redick and DeAndre Jordan are both in decent spots tonight. At Jordan’s price point, I like him as a tournament play only as there are cheaper center options with similar upside.

Denver

Coming off getting dominated by the Spurs last night, it does not get any easier for the Nuggets tonight against a Clippers team who is playing at the top of their game. The Nuggets will try their best to not get run off their home court where they have played well recently winning five of their last seven. The blowout is a factor though tonight and it does take a bit of fantasy upside away from the Denver players tonight.

Elite Plays

None

Secondary Plays

Kenneth Faried and Danilo Gallinari are long-shot GPP plays tonight as I do not see a lot that I like on the Denver side of the ball tonight.

Utah at Phoenix – 10:00 PM EST

Utah Phoenix
utahnba Vegas Total 189 phoenixnba Vegas Total 189
Vegas Sprd 1.5 Vegas Sprd -1.5
Team Proj. 94.0 Team Proj. 95.5
Team Pace 92.47 Team Pace 99.08
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Dante Exum Joe Ingles Gordon Hayward Derrick Favors Rudy Gobert Proj Starter Eric Bledsoe P.J. Tucker Marcus Morris Markieff Morris Brandan Wright
Opp. Season 18 19 21 9 20 Opp. Season 5 11 4 11 1
Opp. Last 7 Opp. Last 7 3 19 5 12 1

Utah

Utah has been playing well recently as they look to be building a pretty strong nucleus of quality, young talent. They will look to continue their strong play against a Phoenix squad and play spoiler for the Suns. This will be a pace up game for the Jazz as the Suns allow the fifth-most points per game in the league at 103.6.

Elite Plays

Rudy Gobert – His price is getting to a point where he needs a 45-point effort in order to reach value tonight, but the upside is clearly there in this matchup. The Suns are ranked 20th in the league against the center position and Gobert should have a great game inside against whomever the Suns throw at him.

Derrick Favors – If you want exposure to the Jazz frontcourt, but want to save a few bucks, Favors offers about the same upside as Gobert in this match up tonight. I expect him to get closer to 30-33 minutes tonight after returning last game to play 25 minutes. This should result in a big line for Favors who was playing very well prior to the back problems.

Secondary Plays

Gordon Hayward – Due to the pace increase for the Jazz, I do like a lot of their players in this matchup. The price point for Hayward at over 8k is my least favorite of the bunch, but I do like his chances of hitting value in what should be a close game to the end tonight.

Phoenix

Still fighting for a playoff spot, the Suns will be looking to take advantage of arguably their easiest opponent over the next five games. This is a big pace down game for the Suns who will be facing the Jazz who are one of the top defensive teams in the league and are allowed the fewest points per game at a ridiculous 94.8. Vegas has this game as a pickem with a low total of 189.

Elite Plays

Brandan Wright – Even with the pace down, the fact that he will be getting a start and a major boost to minutes with Len being out makes Wright a good value play even with the difficult matchup. He should see close to 30 minutes and should at least reach value for his low price.

Secondary Plays

Marcus Morris – If Knight sits again, Morris makes a decent mid-ranged play, but due to the matchup, a tournament play only.

New Orleans at Portland – 10:00 PM EST

New Orleans Portland
neworleansnba Vegas Total 197 portlandnba Vegas Total 197.0
Vegas Sprd 5.5 Vegas Sprd -5.5
Team Proj. 96.0 Team Proj. 101.5
Team Pace 93.74 Team Pace 96.35
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Tyreke Evans Eric Gordon Quincy Pondexter Anthony Davis Omer Asik Proj Starter
Opp. Season 28 21 11 1 5 Opp. Season 15 16 8 4 17
Opp. Last 7 29 5 15 3 2 Opp. Last 7 7 2 1 2 28

New Orleans

The Pelicans are only half a game back from the Thunder and could even up the race for that elusive 8th playoff spot in the Western Conference with a win against the Blazers. The Pelicans are doing everything in their power to land that postseason berth as they have won their last four games against some poor competition. The skill level increases big time tonight as they take on the Blazers who are also playing well of late.

Elite Plays

Tyreke Evans – We saw what Chris Paul just did to this Portland squad, and although I do not expect anything close to that, I do believe that Evans should be in line for a big game tonight. Evans has had three 40+ point games in his last five overall and should be in line for another tonight against Lillard and the Trail Blazers 28th-ranked defense against the point guard position.

Secondary Plays

Anthony Davis – He is priced at a point where he needs a 60-point fantasy performance to reach value. The Brow has not done this in his last seven starts and that has been with a full compliment of minutes over the course of those games. He is always in play and still has the highest upside on the slate, but it is a tough price to pay for him this evening.

Portland

Portland rebounded nicely last night after a tough loss to the Clippers on Wednesday. Portland has a bit of a tougher match up than last night at home against the Pelicans. Vegas has Portland as 5-point favorites with a total of 197, which tells me that this should be a close, hard fought battle in the Western Conference.

Elite Plays

None

Secondary Plays

I like both Damian Lillard and LaMarcus Aldridge tonight, but I find myself liking other guys at their positions for similar or cheaper price points. Both guys are in play for tournaments, but will be looking else where for my cash games tonight.

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About the Author

Ryan138
Ryan138

Ryan (Ryan138) is from Chicago and has been playing fantasy sports for over 10 years. He has been playing daily fantasy sports for over 2 years since he was introduced to Daily Joust in late 2010. In the last year, Ryan has risen into the Top 100 of the RotoGrinders leaderboards by playing at DraftDay, DraftKings and FanDuel in all the major sports.