NBA Grind Down: Saturday, December 14th Page Two
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Portland at Philadelphia
- Vegas Line – No Lines Set for This Game Yet
- Portland Proj. Starters – Lillard-Matthews-Batum-Aldridge-Lopez
- Philadelphia Proj. Starters – Wroten-Turner-Thompson-Young-Hawes
Portland
I love everything about this game other than the 10 point line. The Sixers have been the worst defense in the league all season long and it’s really not even close. Every night they take the floor, there are at least 3-4 viable fantasy options on the team they are facing alone. The Blazers continue to shred their way through the NBA schedule and expect them to really have a big night offensively. All five starters are in play, but Robin Lopez has the least fantasy value. Both Nicolas Batum and LaMarcus Aldridge should play well, but I’m targeting the backcourt combo in this one.
- Damian Lillard – Dollar for dollar, Lillard is the top PG play of the night. The Sixers are ranked dead last against PG’s and I’m expecting Lillard to have a monster night offensively. Look for him to push the pace and create easy buckets both for himself and his teammates.
- Wesley Matthews – Matthews will be under-owned tonight because he is the 4th best fantasy option on this team. He is the cheapest of the bunch though and is one of the better scorers on the Blazers. The Sixers also rank dead last against SG’s. I’m going out on a limb and calling for 30 FP’s from him tonight.
Philadelphia
The Sixers don’t have a great matchup, but you can never rule out the Sixers completely because of their fast pace of play. It sounds like Michael Carter-Williams will sit out tonight’s game so look for Tony Wroten to continue to fill in as the starter. He makes a solid play tonight and has the best matchup of all Sixers. Spencer Hawes also has some value, but I always seem to find other options in his price range that I like better.
- Evan Turner – Even though this is a tough matchup against Batum, Turner is cheap and has great upside. He does a little bit of everything on the floor and should see big minutes once again. Sometimes value outweighs the matchup and that’s the case here.
Milwaukee at Dallas
- Vegas Line – Dallas -12.5, 195 Over/Under
- Milwaukee Proj. Starters – Knight-Mayo-Middleton-Ilyasova-Henson
- Dallas Proj. Starters – Calderon-Ellis-Marion-Nowitzki-Dalembert
Milwaukee
The Bucks really have only one thing going for them tonight and that’s the fact that Dirk Nowitzki may not play. The Bucks have not been a good road team this season and are playing in a back to back situation. You can make the argument for John Henson and Brandon Knight, but the potential blowout in this one has me avoiding both of them. You know how quick Larry Drew is to pull his starters when they aren’t playing well and I see this one playing out like their game against the Spurs a few nights ago.
Dallas
The Mavericks are a tough team to predict even when they have a good matchup. Tonight’s game is expected to be fairly low scoring and is expected to be a blowout. The only thing that would create fantasy value here is if Dirk Nowitzki ends up sitting out tonight. If he sits, bump up DeJuan Blair and Shawn Marion. Brandan Wright is making his season debut tonight, but it will take him some time to get his legs underneath him.
San Antonio at Utah
- Vegas Line – San Antonio -7, 196.5 Over/Under
- San Antonio Proj. Starters – Parker-Green-Leonard-Duncan-Splitter
- Utah Proj. Starters – Burke-Hayward-Jefferson-Favors-Kanter
San Antonio
The Spurs are playing in a back to back situation and it’s a Saturday game. There have been a couple of incidents that happened in this same situation over the last couple of years. The players news isn’t reported nearly as much on weekends and Pop has been known to sit his starters on the second half of a back to back. While I don’t necessarily think that will happen, all I will say is tread lightly. Parker and Duncan are the two most likely candidates to sit in this situation.
- Kawhi Leonard – The Spurs are always such a tough team to predict because the starters rarely play more than 30 minutes unless the game is extremely close. We certainly can’t guarantee that happening tonight, but Leonard is cheap and has nice upside against the Jazz who haven’t defended SF’s well over the last two weeks.
Utah
Don’t look now, but the Jazz are actually playing some good basketball. They’ve won two in a row. The bad news is that they take on the Spurs who have one of the best point differentials in the league. While this one could turn into a blowout, I think Vegas hit it right on the head with a 7 point line. I think the Jazz will keep it competitive enough for the starters to see good minutes.
- Trey Burke – I also don’t mind Hayward after his monster game last night, but he has struggled to keep a consistent effort from game to game. Burke is the much better option in cash games. He has really been playing well and the one position that the Spurs haven’t defended well is PG’s.