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NBA Grind Down: Saturday, March 21st

by LeoTPP Last Updated 2015-03-24 16:10:42

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!

Note: Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NBA Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review.

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Brooklyn at Indiana – 7:00 PM EST

Brooklyn Indiana
brooklynnba Vegas Total 192 indiananba Vegas Total 192
Vegas Sprd 8.5 Vegas Sprd -8.5
Team Proj. 91.8 Team Proj. 100.3
Team Pace 94.75 Team Pace 95.59
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Deron Williams Markel Brown Joe Johnson Thaddeus Young Brook Lopez Proj Starter George Hill C.J. Miles Solomon Hill David West Roy Hibbert
Opp. Season 9 24 7 2 8 Opp. Season 14 27 8 28 17
Opp. Last 7 19 16 28 16 16 Opp. Last 7 10 15 12 22 29

Brooklyn

The Nets come into tonight’s game on the heels of a triple-overtime thriller against the Bucks, in which several of Brooklyn’s top players spent over 40 minutes on the court. Fatigue will obviously be something to consider as we scope out this game for daily fantasy plays, as will the Nets’ status as fairly heavy underdogs against the Pacers. Indiana’s defense hasn’t been quite as good over the past week (over their last four games, they’ve allowed an average of 104.25 points per game) as it has been all season, but this is far from an easy matchup for the Nets.

Elite Plays

None

Secondary Plays

Joe Johnson (FD: $5,400, DK: $5,200)

He may not be at full strength after last night’s marathon contest, but considering his price point right around the $5,000 mark on both FanDuel and DraftKings, Old Man Joe represents one of our best chances to exceed value on this shorter slate. Johnson has topped 30 FanDuel points twice in his last three games, and faces a Pacers team that has struggled to defend wing players lately. He’s a decent GPP option for tonight’s slate.

Indiana

The Pacers come into this game battling the Nets for position on the outside of the Eastern Conference playoff picture, as the Celtics currently hold the eighth spot on a tiebreaker. That means this game will feature two motivated teams, and according to Vegas, a motivated Pacers team should easily handle the Nets. David West is questionable for tonight’s game with an illness, and should he not play, it would open up more minutes and opportunities for Luis Scola.

Elite Plays

None

Secondary Plays

George Hill (FD: $6,400, DK: $6,600)

The Pacers point guard has been very consistent over the last few weeks, failing to register 24 or more FanDuel points only twice since the start of the month. He is dealing with a nagging back injury that may limit him, so keep an eye on any updates to his health, but Hill represents a fairly safe option at the point on this short slate against an average defense against point guards.

Luis Scola (FD: $4,600, DK: $4,400)

As mentioned above, if David West is ruled out, Scola will see a boost in minutes and responsibilities in the Pacers’ frontcourt. In his last three games with over 20 minutes of time on the floor, he’s gone over 28 FanDuel points in each contest. That is more than enough to cover his current price point across the industry.

Chicago at Detroit – 7:30 PM EST

Chicago Detroit
chicagonba Vegas Total 194 detroitnba Vegas Total 194
Vegas Sprd -3.5 Vegas Sprd 3.5
Team Proj. 99.0 Team Proj. 95.5
Team Pace 95.64 Team Pace 95.59
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Aaron Brooks Tony Snell Mike Dunleavy Pau Gasol Joakim Noah Proj Starter Reggie Jackson Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Caron Butler Anthony Tolliver Andre Drummond
Opp. Season 4 16 16 29 29 Opp. Season 25 5 17 17 9
Opp. Last 7 15 4 16 23 23 Opp. Last 7 16 2 4 19 7

Chicago

The Bulls are just starting to get some of their talent back, as Taj Gibson returned to the fold in their last game, and Jimmy Butler seems to be on the verge of a return. But as long as Butler and Derrick Rose remain out, there is fantasy goodness to be found on the Chicago roster, as the scoring provided by that duo must be distributed across the remaining players. Tonight’s game against Detroit should be competitive, and offers the highest total of any game not involving the Rockets and Suns.

Elite Plays

Joakim Noah (FD: $6,700, DK: $6,100)

I mentioned above that Derrick Rose’s scoring has to be distributed through the Chicago roster in his absence, but his assists also have to be picked up by his teammates. And while Aaron Brooks does get his fair share of assists, it’s Noah who sees a big boost in his playmaking statistics with the oft-injured Rose on the sideline. Last night’s 14-dime breakout was just an example of the passing prowess from the former Gator, who will face a defense that allows fantasy points in bunches to centers tonight. Fire up Noah in all formats in this great situation.

Secondary Plays

Pau Gasol (FD: $8,900, DK: $8,500)

Gasol had his minutes held back just a bit in Chicago’s game last night against the Raptors, and he responded with a relatively disappointing 11/9/6 stat line. We’re looking for 45 or more fantasy points out of Gasol to hit value, something he hasn’t done in nearly two weeks, but there’s no better solution for a scoring slump than a date with the Pistons. Even at full strength, Detroit has allowed the second-most points to both power forwards and centers this year, and with Greg Monroe dealing with injury, the defense in the post is that much weaker.

Mike Dunleavy (FD: $4,200, DK: $4,000)

Do you want a boring 20-30 fantasy points from one of your small forward positions in your lineup? On a slate with more attractive options like a healthy Kevin Durant or LeBron James, you’d probably decline, but when considering tonight’s options at the “three,” you may want to reconsider. Dunleavy’s floor is south of 20 points, so he’s not a rock solid option, but for a bargain price across the industry, you could do much worse at such a limited position.

Detroit

The Pistons are almost 20 wins behind Chicago in the standings, but are only projected to lose tonight’s contest by a three-pointer. That speaks volumes about the amount of healthy talent left for Chicago, that a team coming off of a loss to the Sixers would be considered that close of a matchup. Greg Monroe is doubtful to play this weekend, so that opens up usage for the other Detroit starters.

Elite Plays

Reggie Jackson (FD: $7,400, DK: $6,900)

The former Oklahoma City backup has been quite the roller coaster as a starter for the Pistons, posting an impressive 20/20 against the Grizzlies before shooting 4-17 against the Sixers. But his usage will remain through the roof with Monroe out of the lineup, and for his mid-range price across the DFS landscape, he’s too attractive of an option to pass up, even if he’s not playing the most efficient ball in the world right now. Aaron Brooks is a poor defender, and Jackson should be able to get into the paint and create chances for himself and others tonight.

Secondary Plays

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (FD: $4,900, DK: $4,500)

KCP has hoisted up 16 shots in each of his last two games, helping to carry some of the offensive burden with Monroe out of the lineup. He also added eight rebounds against the Sixers, and while we shouldn’t expect that level of activity on the glass, we can expect him to remain involved in the offense and present a solid option at a shallow shooting guard position tonight.

Andre Drummond (FD: $8,700, DK: $7,800)

With Greg Monroe out, Drummond is left as the only post presence in the starting lineup for Detroit, as Anthony Tolliver does a lot of his work on the perimeter. This means despite a pretty tough matchup against the interior defense of the Bulls, Drummond will be collecting plenty of rebounds and seeing the majority of the touches in the paint for the Pistons. He has a low floor due to foul proneness and general inconsistencies, but his upside is high given his production across multiple categories as the lone big for Detroit.

Phoenix at Houston – 8:00 PM EST

Phoenix Houston
phoenixnba Vegas Total 207 houstonnba Vegas Total 207
Vegas Sprd 8.0 Vegas Sprd -8.0
Team Proj. 99.8 Team Proj. 107.8
Team Pace 99.13 Team Pace 99.08
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Eric Bledsoe P.J. Tucker Marcus Morris Markieff Morris Brandan Wright Proj Starter Patrick Beverley James Harden Trevor Ariza Donatas Motiejunas Joey Dorsey
Opp. Season 2 23 25 25 20 Opp. Season 16 19 22 8 18
Opp. Last 7 6 28 19 17 11 Opp. Last 7 3 20 1 1 24

Phoenix

This game has fantasy goodness written all over it. Vegas currently has this game with a total over 207, while all of the other games on the slate fall under 195. The Rockets are healthy favorites over the Suns, but not by a wide enough margin to scare us away from using players from either side, especially since 28-30 minutes in this game should produce a similar total to 32-35 in any of the others. The Suns are dealing with multiple injuries, as Alex Len, Brandon Knight, and Marcus Thornton are all in doubt for tonight’s game.

Elite Plays

Markieff Morris (FD: $6,900, DK: $6,500)

Both the Suns and the Rockets are thin in the frontcourt due to recent injuries, as both teams are missing their starting centers. This means both teams will play with smaller power forwards who play further away from the basket over the course of this game, which suits the tempo at which the Suns want to play. This will present plenty of opportunities for Morris, who has actually been more consistent than you may think recently. Setting aside a 16-point clunker against the Warriors, he’s been posting solid stat lines for over two weeks, and gets a great matchup against the thin Houston frontcourt.

Secondary Plays

Eric Bledsoe (FD: $8,300, DK: $8,100)

Bledsoe isn’t an elite play because he does not have the consistency you want out of a top-dollar player, but he’s still in play because he’s one of only two shooting guards with real upside tonight. The Suns’ combo guard has been seeing plenty of the ball with Brandon Knight sidelined, and has responded with a few solid performances mixed in with plenty of disappointment. Patrick Beverley’s defense is still to be respected, but not feared, and Bledsoe offers 50+ point upside at a position that lacks excitement tonight.

Marcus Morris (FD: $5,400, DK: $5,300)

Remember when Marcus was a bargain basement option that the public didn’t seem to be on yet? Pricing and awareness have caught up to the “other” Morris’ production, and he’s now a secondary play for many of the same reasons his brother is an elite option tonight. Morris has played well since being inserted into the starting lineup, and has the upside to pour in the points and exceed his value, with the safety of four straight 23+ FanDuel point performances.

Other Options – If you want even more exposure to this game, Brandan Wright and P.J. Tucker are also in play.

Houston

Terrence Jones will sit out tonight’s game with a lung injury (ouch, get well soon!), and Dwight Howard isn’t quite back to full health for the Rockets. That means we’ve got a narrower bunch of players to choose from, while still expecting over 100 points in an up-tempo matchup with the Suns. Patrick Beverley remains banged up, so keep an eye on his status as we get closer to tip.

Elite Plays

James Harden (FD: $11,000, DK: $11,200)

James Harden had been quite the disappointment over the past two weeks, as he struggled to even hit 40 FanDuel points in what seemed to be attractive matchups. A game against the Nuggets at home put him back on track, and he’ll get to follow that up with a home game against the below-average defense of the Suns. No other shooting guard is a certainty to reach even 35 FD points, a total Harden reaches almost every time he touches the floor, and certainly none have the 60+ point upside Harden does.

Donatas Motiejunas (FD: $5,600, DK: $5,600)

With Terrence Jones sidelined, Motiejunas will pick up extra looks in the Houston offense, and should continue his recent trend of meeting or exceeding value at his mid-range price point. Motiejunas’ floor (assuming he doesn’t get into catastrophic foul trouble) is around 20 FanDuel points, but his ceiling is into the 40’s thanks to his scoring prowess. The Suns will gladly turn this game into a shootout, and Motie will gladly roam around looking for openings to score against a subpar defense.

Secondary Plays

Josh Smith (FD: $5,400, DK: $5,700)

You’re unlikely to love the decision to put Josh Smith in your lineups tonight, but with Jones out, the versatile forward will see his fair share of opportunities, and could stuff the stat sheet in a high event game against the Suns. He’s an ideal fit for the projected tempo of this game, and offers upside if his shot is falling and his hands are active on defense.

Corey Brewer (FD: $5,500, DK: $5,200)

If the Suns go small and push the pace, the Rockets can respond with their bench dynamo Corey Brewer. The former Gator has been playing heavy minutes recently despite his role as a backup, and has been at or above a point per minute for over a week. With extra minutes to go around in Jones’ absence (and possibly with Beverley out as well), look for the athletic wing for Houston to score in bunches and continue his recent trend of being active on the glass.

Other Options – I can only write up so many players, but Trevor Ariza and a healthy Patrick Beverley are also in play from this game.

Portland at Memphis – 8:00 PM EST

Portland Memphis
portlandnba Vegas Total 193.0 memphisnba Vegas Total 193
Vegas Sprd 3.5 Vegas Sprd -3.5
Team Proj. 94.8 Team Proj. 98.3
Team Pace 96.47 Team Pace 94.26
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Damian Lillard Arron Afflalo Nicolas Batum LaMarcus Aldridge Robin Lopez Proj Starter Mike Conley Courtney Lee Tony Allen Zach Randolph Marc Gasol
Opp. Season 6 9 13 4 2 Opp. Season 27 21 10 1 6
Opp. Last 7 21 6 2 6 4 Opp. Last 7 29 30 8 2 17

Portland

This game will be fantastic from a “real basketball” perspective, as the Blazers and Grizzlies are fighting for positions atop the Western Conference. The winner of this game will take a step in the direction of “not playing the Warriors in the second round,” which is the goal of every team currently battling in the West. However, because this game is in Memphis against the “grit-and-grind” Grizz, Portland’s expectations should be tempered from a fantasy perspective.

Elite Plays

None

Secondary Plays

LaMarcus Aldridge (FD: $9,600, DK: $8,900)

If you’re paying up at power forward tonight, your options are Pau Gasol or Aldridge. And while Pau has a great matchup, his minutes are uncertain and his recent production is less than stellar. Aldridge, on the other hand, has solid minutes and a great track record of late, but faces a ridiculously tough matchup with Z-Bo, Gasol and the Grizzlies. Add in his slightly increased price compared to the Spaniard from Chicago, and it’s tough to call Aldridge anything more than a GPP option tonight.

Memphis

The Grizzlies will look to defend their home floor tonight against the Blazers and keep hold of the second spot in the West. The fine folks in Vegas expect the Grizz to prevail, but by a narrow margin, so there are no blowout concerns against another top Western Conference foe. Mike Conley is easing his way back into the rotation after a prolonged absence, and if he plays, it muddies the waters in terms of who will see the most time against the lackluster backcourt defense of the Blazers.

Elite Plays

None

Secondary Plays

Tony Allen (FD: $4,700, DK: $4,500)

Assuming there are no resting Grizzlies tonight in this important matchup, you’ll want exposure to their guards, who get to face the soft spot of the Portland defense from a DVP perspective. Allen has logged over 30 minutes in his last four games, and has gone over 19 FanDuel points in every single one. At a thin shooting guard position tonight, Allen represents your best bargain option to differentiate from the masses who will be picking Harden and Bledsoe.

Marc Gasol (FD: $7,900, DK: $7,500)

If you’re rostering one Gasol today, I would recommend Marc over Pau. The Memphis center has gone over 30 points in four straight games, and gets a slightly easier matchup as the center against Portland, as power forwards are usually contained by LaMarcus Aldridge. He’s unlikely to set the world on fire and win you a tournament, but he is one of the safer options at center on this short slate, and is a decent building block if you’ve got the salary.

Utah at Golden State – 10:30 PM EST

Utah Golden State
utahnba Vegas Total 194 goldenstatenba Vegas Total 194
Vegas Sprd 9.0 Vegas Sprd -9.0
Team Proj. 92.5 Team Proj. 101.5
Team Pace 92.49 Team Pace 100.89
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Dante Exum Rodney Hood Gordon Hayward Derrick Favors Rudy Gobert Proj Starter Stephen Curry Justin Holiday Harrison Barnes Draymond Green Andrew Bogut
Opp. Season 7 7 12 19 21 Opp. Season 5 10 5 10 1
Opp. Last 7 7 17 15 25 25 Opp. Last 7 4 1 6 14 1

Utah

A few weeks ago, you would have laughed at this game and ignored it completely, figuring that the Jazz would be run out of the building. And while they may not win, their improved play of late makes this a much more competitive game, but also a lower-scoring affair. Vegas doesn’t usually have Golden State games under 200 points, which is a testament to the Jazz’s defense since the All-Star break.

Elite Plays

None

Secondary Plays

Gordon Hayward (FD: $8,000, DK: $7,700)

While Hayward’s matchup with Draymond Green and company is far from ideal, he’s the heart and soul of the Jazz and will be the reason they keep this game as competitive as Vegas expects it to be. He’s done well against Golden State this year, averaging 18/7/3 in three contests. That would be enough to give you a score that not many other small forwards will approach on this short slate, so if you save money elsewhere with bargain options, it might be worth it to pay up for the safety of Hayward.

Other Options – Rudy Gobert and Derrick Favors are both options, as the frontcourt is the place to attack the Warriors, but neither seems to be priced at a point that I feel comfortable with. Trey Burke has been seeing decent minutes and opportunities as of late, and may be worth a tournament flier.

Golden State

Steve Kerr will reportedly not rest anyone for tonight’s game, which keeps everyone in play for a game that should be fairly competitive, but low-scoring compared to other Warriors games. The Jazz have been elite on defense recently, but the Warriors have world-class players on their side, and should still post respectable offensive production.

Elite Plays

None

Secondary Plays

Stephen Curry (FD: $10,000, DK: $9,600)

With Klay Thompson out, Steph Curry assumes the role of “lone Splash Brother” and has to carry the load for the Golden State frontcourt. He hasn’t hit 50 points all that often recently, but he’s averaged 22/9/5 against the Jazz this year, which would just about return value at his current price.

Shaun Livingston (FD: $4,200, DK: $4,200)

If you’d rather pay up elsewhere and save at point guard, Shaun Livingston may be the perfect option for you. The backup guard has seen a healthy amount of minutes recently, even with Steph Curry active, and is good for at least 15 FanDuel points per night. If this game gets out of hand, he could see more minutes, and therefore more points. He’s a decent punt to free up money for Harden, Bledsoe and others.

Other Options – Pick your favorite “benefits from the absence of Klay Thompson” wing player, as Justin Holiday, Andre Iguodala and Harrison Barnes are all in play tonight, but none stand out as the clear choice.

About the Author

LeoTPP
LeoTPP

Leo Howell is an associate editor, weekend site manager and writer for RotoGrinders. He has played fantasy sports for as long as he can remember, and has been playing DFS since 2012. He can be found on Twitter at @LeoHowell8