NBA Grind Down: Saturday, November 16th: Page Two
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Denver at Houston
Denver
This game is projected as tonight’s highest scoring game. Vegas has the total set at 211 points and there should be plenty of fantasy points to go around in this one. The Nuggets are starting to look like the fast-paced team that we’ve come to know over the last few years and are slowly creeping up the rankings of points scored per game. Wilson Chander has been a big addition to this offense and Kenneth Faried has really turned it on the last few games.
The Rockets are giving up 103 points per game this season and haven’t had much success on defense. They rank in the bottom half of the league against every single position. That leaves the door open for a few different options on the Nuggets.
Players to Target
- Ty Lawson – Lawson has really turned it on over his last five games and is averaging close to 35 FP’s per game over that stretch. He has an excellent matchup tonight against the combo of Patrick Beverley and Jeremy Lin. While Beverley is a solid one on one defender, the Rockets have poor team defense and Lawson should have some success in the open floor.
- Kenneth Faried – Despite the trade rumors surrounding Faried, he has had his best 3 games of the season in his last three. Look for him to continue to see big minutes with all of the injuries to the Nuggets. When he is healthy, he is one of the better power forwards in the league. Now is the time to take him before his price increases.
Houston
The Rockets are playing at a very quick pace (101) and are the 3rd highest scoring team in the league at 107 points per game. Due to their fast pace of play, there are going to be plenty of fantasy options on both sides every time they take the court.
The Nuggets have been the worst team in the NBA at defending bigs this season. They rank 30th against PF’s and 27th against Centers. They do not have any good low post defenders and teams are taking advantage of it every night. That makes Dwight Howard my favorite play, however I also think that Chandler Parsons makes a nice play as he fills up the stat sheet and always sees 35+ minutes.
Players to Target
- Dwight Howard – Like I mentioned above, the Nuggets are terrible at defending the paint. They are undersized and just don’t have the interior defenders. The Rockets need to get better at getting Dwight more touches, but the matchup is so good that I just can’t see him not having a big game. After Dwight had less than 5 field goal attempts against the Knicks, the Rockets would be smart to exploit their best matchup tonight.
Boston at Minnesota
Boston
The Celtics have played some inspired basketball this season, but they are running into an offensive buzz saw that is the Wolves. Vegas has the Wolves favored by 10 and after they crushed the Cavs at home the other night, I wouldn’t be surprised to see them do the same to the Celtics.
That said, the fast pace of the Wolves gives the Celtics offense a bump as far as fantasy value in concerned. At the very least, they will get a few more possessions than usual. The Wolves have very average DvP rankings so if you can’t find any value plays on the C’s, don’t rule them out.
Players to Target
- Jordan Crawford – Crawford has really been playing well as the starting PG. He is playing as more of a pass first player which can’t be easy for a guy that has always been a scorer by nature. His price is still pretty cheap on a few sites and he should be able to reach value.
Minnesota
The Wolves are at the top of the league in both pace of play (102) and points scored per game (108). They are coming off of a tough loss to the Nuggets last night, but I’m not worried about them being too sluggish. They are a very young team and the Celtics played last night as well.
The Celtics have defended PG’s and SF’s well thanks to the defense of Bradley and Green. Both are top notch defenders and it shows in the rankings. I recommend steering clear of Ricky Rubio and Corey Brewer due to their bad matchups. I also think that it’s not a bad idea to fade Kevin Love. He is the most expensive player available and could be stuck on the bench if this turns into a blowout.
Players to Target
- Nikola Pekovic – Pek can get lost in the games that turn into shootouts. When the Wolves stop looking into the post, he struggles to stay involved. I don’t think that will be the case tonight against the Celtics though as they are one of the slowest paced teams in the league. The C’s are ranked 28th against Centers and Pek is one of the best values on the board tonight.
Philadelphia at New Orleans
Philadelphia
The Sixers have become one of the fastest paced teams in the league. They have adopted the philosophy of taking the ball out of the basket and seeing how quick they can get a shot up at the other end. I’m certainly not complaining though. Their pace is good for both teams involved.
The Pelicans have actually been very good defensively, but struggle against the one position that is the most surprising: PF. Anthony Davis is thought of as their best defender thanks to his length and ability to alter and block shots, but the numbers say otherwise. However, I’m still not trust Thaddeus Young against him. The value here is with young Tony Wroten.
Players to Target
- Tony Wroten – Wroten’s value hinges on the health of Michael Carter-Williams, but if he wasn’t good enough to play last night, I don’t think 24 hours is going to change anything. If MCW is out again tonight, Wroten makes a great value play once again. He’s played great in his two fill in starts.
New Orleans
The Pelicans have the best matchup on the board. While the Sixers do lead the league a certain statistic, it’s not the one that you want to see if you are a Sixers fan. They allow the most points in the league at 108 per game. Give a nice bump to the entire Pelicans lineup.
The Sixers struggle against every position, but rank in the bottom 3 against PG, SG, and SF. I don’t mind the play of Anthony Davis either, but dollar for dollar, Jrue Holiday and Eric Gordon look like the best plays.
Players to Target
- Jrue Holiday – Jrue has a fantastic matchup tonight against the Sixers. They are giving up close to 50 FP’s per game to opposing PG’s and no that is not a typo. Jeff Teague was the latest PG to thrash their defense. Look for Holiday to do the same tonight.
- Eric Gordon – Gordon has been the most consistent guard for the Pelicans so far this season. He is finally healthy and should get a ton of open looks against this awful defense. I normally don’t like taking more than 2 players from a single team, but the Sixers are bad enough defensively, that I’m thinking about it tonight.
Oklahoma City at Milwaukee
Oklahoma City
The Thunder are coming off of a very tough loss against the Warriors, but they should get back on track tonight against a very under-manned Bucks team. The Bucks lineup is plagued with injuries and the Thunder are double digit favorites in this one.
I love the matchup for both Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant, but the Bucks are so injured that this one could be over by halftime. I recommended avoiding the Pacers studs last night because of the potential blowout, and they ended up sitting the entire 4th quarter. Don’t be surprised if that happens again tonight.
Milwaukee
The Bucks are going to be a tough team to analyze this early in the day because they have so many injured players that we aren’t going to know who is playing tonight until closer to tipoff. However, I can make some recommendations if certain players are out. If Caron Butler is out again tonight, Khris Middleton should see big minutes again and makes a nice value play. I also like Zaza Pachulia as a sleeper pick if you want to save at the Center position.
Utah at Golden State
Utah
The Jazz have blown quite a few leads this season, add last night’s game against the Spurs to the list. Now they have to travel to Oakland to take on the fast paced Warriors who have an extra day of rest on them. The Warriors are favored by 14.5 which is the highest line on the board.
That said, the Jazz players could still see big minutes even if the game gets out of hand. Derrick Favors has posted monster numbers in 3 straight, Enes Kanter is underpriced on a few sites, and Gordon Hayward has shown that he can post 40+ FP’s on any given night. Their value is really site specific though as their salaries differ across the board.
Players to Target
- Alec Burks – Burks was finally inserted into the starting lineup last night and hopefully it will stick. Burks is a very talented young player that will only get better as the season goes on. If he gets the start again tonight, I love the upside for his price.
Golden State
The Warriors are at the top of the league in both pace of play (102) and points scored per game (105). They have a decent matchup against the Jazz, but they are favored by so much that I’m not sold on spending up for anyone here. While I think Stephen Curry and David Lee will both play well, I’m not sure that they see enough minutes to cover their value.
Players to Target
- Klay Thompson – If you are going to target anyone from the Warriors, I think a mid-range option is your best bet. Klay fits that bill well. He is fairly priced across the board and is arguably the best shooter in basketball. He can get hot quick and I think he has good upside in this matchup.