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NBA Grind Down: Saturday, November 22nd

by JeffElJefe Last Updated 2014-11-24 19:29:30

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!

Note: Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review.

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Click ‘Stat Chart’ Buttons Below for Pop-Ups of Essential Game-Specific Statistics including Defense vs. Position and Pace

Phoenix at Indiana

Phoenix Indiana
phoenixnba Vegas Total 196 indiananba Vegas Total 196
Vegas Sprd -1.5 Vegas Sprd 1.5
Team Proj. 99.0 Team Proj. 97.5
Team Pace 98.91 Team Pace 92.23
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Eric Bledsoe Goran Dragic Marcus Morris Markieff Morris Miles Plumlee Proj Starter Donald Sloan Solomon Hill Chris Copeland Luis Scola Roy Hibbert
Opp. Season 22 27 5 1 30 Opp. Season 24 20 2 25 14
Opp. Last 7 2 28 3 9 28 Opp. Last 7 27 3 8 13 26

Phoenix

With incredible depth at the guard positions and solid play on the interior, the Suns have actually been one of the best teams in the NBA so far. Ranked 4th in pace of play, their games usually provide plenty of fantasy value. Guards typically do well against the Suns largely due to the pace of play, since running the floor leads to transition three’s and one-on-one plays at the rim. Specifically on the Suns, there hasn’t been much value in rostering anybody on the team in cash games. Eric Bledsoe and Markieff Morris can be good GPP plays in certain spots, but I find that the team as a whole is overpriced.

Elite Plays

Eric Bledsoe — Out of the Phoenix guard situation, Bledsoe is the guy that is the most reliable. Given his price, you’d need him to be hovering around five points per game higher than he is currently, but he’s always in play for GPP’s with his 50 point upside. Indiana rates poorly against both guard positions, so even though we don’t know how the teams will match up defensively, it won’t matter.

Secondary Plays

None

Indiana

The Pacers are playing up in pace today, making them a great team to target overall. A pile of injuries for the team has resulted in there being a lot of DFS value throughout all five positions this year. Despite the injuries, the Pacers should be able to compete in the weaker of the two conferences for a playoff spot. Rodney Stuckey has returned from his foot injury, but complained that he’s out of shape and will need some time before he can start playing a lot of minutes. The lack of minutes is going to hurt his fantasy value in the short term, but his depressed price combined with how often he has the ball in his hands makes him a tempting option.

Elite Plays

Roy Hibbert — Especially on FanDuel, Hibbert has been a cash game go-to guy for a lot of people. After his awful season last year, nobody would have guessed that rostering him regularly in cash games would be profitable. I see this game setting up very similar to the game that Indiana played against Boston a couple weeks ago. The Pacers lost that game 98-101 and Hibbert had 47.25 points on DK. The spread and total on this game suggest a very similar score, and Hibbert should be able to capitalize on the extra possessions that the team will have.

Donald Sloan — Sloan struggled in games against Milwaukee, Utah and Chicago — all teams that play at a below-average pace. Besides those games, he’s been very reliable for the price. There are two things I mentioned earlier that make Sloan a great play: Guards do well against Phoenix, and the Pacers are playing up in pace. Although he did have a very big game earlier this year against Washington, Sloan is a cash game play for me, and not someone that I see having a ton of upside.

Secondary Plays

Rodney Stuckey — The fact that Stuckey isn’t in shape makes him a very risky play, but I’d argue that there’s definitely upside there when you factor in his price of $3,300 on DK. He played 26 minutes on Wednesday and has had two days off in between. A reasonable projection would be for him to get around the same minutes, and his high usage equates to him being a point-per-minute player for fantasy purposes. Considering the plus matchup, landing at 25 points would be reasonable and a 7x-8x ratio makes him a nice, cheap GPP option.

Miami at Orlando

Miami Orlando
miaminba Vegas Total 194 orlandonba Vegas Total 194
Vegas Sprd -2.0 Vegas Sprd 2.0
Team Proj. 98.3 Team Proj. 96.3
Team Pace 92.68 Team Pace 95.93
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Norris Cole Mario Chalmers Danny Granger Shawne Williams Chris Bosh Proj Starter Victor Oladipo Evan Fournier Tobias Harris Channing Frye Nikola Vucevic
Opp. Season 15 30 9 13 29 Opp. Season 10 29 15 3 22
Opp. Last 7 24 16 21 2 30 Opp. Last 7 13 27 2 18 9

Miami

Dwyane Wade has now missed four consecutive games, and Norris Cole dislocated his finger in Thursday’s game. We’ll have to see if either will play, but it looks like Mario Chalmers could end up playing a lot of minutes again. Josh McRoberts played on Thursday and will be on a minutes limit for the time being. Luol Deng also returned from injury and Danny Granger even saw some run this week. The forwards are going to hurt each others value and consitency and we’ve seen that with a decline in recent production from Shawne Williams. The value in Heat players tonight will be based around who is inactive.

Elite Plays

Mario Chalmers / Shabazz Napier — Chalmers gets the biggest boost to his value when Wade is out because he takes it upon himself to be more aggressive offensively. If we hear that Wade is inactive, Chalmers becomes a great play on FD at $5,300 for both cash games and GPP’s. Since he is already getting as many minutes as he can handle, the injury status of Norris Cole doesn’t impact Rio in that way. It could result in Napier getting more minutes though, which if he performs anywhere near the level that he did against the Clippers, would be a great play for his price.

Secondary Plays

Dwyane Wade — If it’s randomly announced that Wade will play without any limitations, he becomes a great GPP play with the soft matchup against Evan Fournier. I expect him to sit, but figured it was worth a mention just in case…

Orlando

Orlando made a big comeback last night to win in Charlotte thanks largely to a huge night from Tobias Harris. Victor Oladipo has been worked into the rotation — and has even started some games — but the Magic turned to Elfrid Payton for the key 4th quarter moments at the end of the game last night. Evan Fournier seems to be recovered from a heel injury that was bothering him, while Kyle O’Quinn still hasn’t fully recovered from his ankle injury. The Magic are playing down in pace tonight, as Miami ranks as the 3rd slowest team in the league.

Elite Plays

Nikola Vucevic — Vucevic has established himself as one of the more reliable big men in the NBA this year averaging 18.4 and 11.8 rebounds per game. He’s expensive, but Chris Bosh won’t be able to handle him. Miami gives up a lot of fantasy points to centers, and part of the reason for that is due to their inability to rebound. Miami has one of the worst rebound differentials in the league at -3.0. With Vucevic ranking 4th in rebounds among all players, he should have his way on the glass.

Secondary Plays

Evan Fournier — We’ve seen Fournier hover around his value marks all year this season, and he never really has a game that kills your lineup; his worst game of the year on DK was 18 fantasy points. With the reasonable price tag and a soft matchup tonight, he’s an under-the-radar play in the middle tiers.

Toronto at Cleveland

Toronto Cleveland
torontonba Vegas Total 208 clevelandnba Vegas Total 208
Vegas Sprd 3.5 Vegas Sprd -3.5
Team Proj. 102.5 Team Proj. 106.0
Team Pace 95.95 Team Pace 95.48
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Kyle Lowry DeMar DeRozan Terrence Ross Amir Johnson Jonas Valanciunas Proj Starter Kyrie Irving Shawn Marion LeBron James Kevin Love Anderson Varejao
Opp. Season 21 11 17 29 25 Opp. Season 11 7 20 2 28
Opp. Last 7 22 13 12 30 24 Opp. Last 7 5 10 7 8 20

Toronto

There were a lot of blowouts on Friday night, which partly contributed to the Bizzaro version of DFS that we saw, and Toronto handed out one of them. In a 41 point win against the Bucks, DeMar DeRozan was the only Raptor to play more than 26 minutes, and he again wasted the opportunity by going 1-8 from the field. While he has had a couple decent games recently, overall his season has been a major disappointment. He’s shooting 41% from the field and 17% from the arc. That said, the Raptors have still managed to start off hot with a 10-2 record — best in the Eastern Conference.

Elite Plays

Kyle Lowry — Lowry is going to be a popular play tonight with how poorly Kyrie Irving has done defensively against opposing point guards. Look no further than last night where John Wall topped 50 points on DK. Lowry has been playing well recently and tonight can be expected to produce much better than his 36.1 fantasy points per game that he is averaging on DK. His ability to drive with the ball won’t be hindered by the Cleveland bigs.

Secondary Plays

None

Cleveland

The Cavs are still trying to figure things out, understandably. My frustration about this team though is that it doesn’t appear that I’ll ever roster Kevin Love this season. He should be a $7k player, but he’s been priced around $2k too high across the industry all year. There is definitely value in LeBron James and Kyrie Irving in the right spots, and we’ve seen that their role players can provide nice production for reasonable prices at times also. It seems that this will be the type of game that both teams get up and down the court quickly, so those cheap role players could be pretty valuable.

Elite Plays

Anderson Varejao — Varejao runs the floor well, and as long as he doesn’t try to dribble the ball down the court on a two-on-one like last night (which resulted in a turnover), he should be on the receiving end of some transition plays. He’s a hustle player that fights for rebounds and loose balls. He does well with limited minutes by filling out many stat sheet categories. He’s playing against the 29th ranked team against centers, and he’s pretty cheap on multiple sites.

LeBron James — James has had a couple disappointing games in a row and now faces the best (so far) team in the East. The price is just too cheap on FanDuel to not have him in your lineup. The Vegas line and total are good and Toronto is below-average against small forwards.

Secondary Plays

None

Philadelphia at New York

Philadelphia New York
philadelphianba Vegas Total 198 newyorknba Vegas Total
Vegas Sprd 12.0 Vegas Sprd
Team Proj. 93.3 Team Proj.
Team Pace 100.83 Team Pace 91.99
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Michael Carter-Williams Tony Wroten Luc Richard Mbah a Moute Nerlens Noel Henry Sims Proj Starter Jose Calderon Iman Shumpert Carmelo Anthony Quincy Acy Samuel Dalembert
Opp. Season 9 25 8 27 4 Opp. Season 8 28 29 15 18
Opp. Last 7 6 29 26 20 11 Opp. Last 7 29 2 18 26 10

Philadelphia

The 76ers lost again, and are still searching for their first win. The experiment to start Tony Wroten and Michael Carter-Williams together in the backcourt didn’t work out very well for Wroten owners, instead it was K.J. McDaniels having a career day in garbage time. They are just a very, very bad team, and it’s not quite to the point it was last year where you had to have 2-3 players against them every night, but they are still definitely a team to attack due to their fast pace and poor defense.

Elite Plays

Michael Carter-Williams / Tony Wroten — Both guys remain GPP plays as either or both could put up a monster stat line. Wroten is a potential GPP winner on DK with 10x upside, and the amount of people that got burned by him last night should contribute to a low ownership percentage tonight.

Secondary Plays

Brandon Davies — Davies is a highly volatile player getting inconsistent minutes, but his drop to min-price on DK warrants a mention here.

New York

The big news here is the expected return of Jose Calderon and possibly Andrea Bargnani as well. We don’t really know what to expect from either, which makes rostering any of the Knicks outside of Carmelo Anthony pretty tough. Word is that Calderon could start, and that Bargnani might be available off the bench, but we’ll have to monitor those reports throughout the day. The Knicks have struggled with the Triangle Offense already, so you’d think that adding more pieces might set them back even further in the short term.

Elite Plays

None

Secondary Plays

Carmelo Anthony — Philadelphia really struggles with wing players, and no matter who makes their debut(s) tonight for New York, Carmelo will be hoisting up most of the shots for the offense. The Knicks are big favorites but it would be hard to imagine one bad team really blowing out the other to the point where starters aren’t playing in the fourth quarter.

Dallas at Houston

Dallas Houston
dallasnba Vegas Total 206 houstonnba Vegas Total 206
Vegas Sprd -1.5 Vegas Sprd 1.5
Team Proj. 104.0 Team Proj. 102.5
Team Pace 95.54 Team Pace 97.06
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Jameer Nelson Monta Ellis Chandler Parsons Dirk Nowitzki Tyson Chandler Proj Starter Patrick Beverley James Harden Trevor Ariza Donatas Motiejunas Tarik Black
Opp. Season 3 15 13 17 13 Opp. Season 19 13 23 8 12
Opp. Last 7 12 21 4 24 8 Opp. Last 7 10 26 25 10 16

Dallas

Dallas has one of the best coaches in the league, a future Hall of Famer and a nice mix of role players, but don’t let their record fool you — they aren’t this good. They’ve beaten the bad teams (they’ve played a lot of them) and their three losses have come against Miami, Portland and San Antonio. Houston is on the level of those teams, and I think Dallas is going to get beat pretty badly tonight. I’m not saying to completely avoid Dallas, just that I believe the better fantasy production will come from Houston in this matchup.

Elite Plays

J.J. Barea — If Devin Harris is out again tonight, Barea is close to a must-play for me. He was my favorite play on the board last night, and while I’ll concede that this matchup isn’t quite as good, Barea is playing spectacularly. He went 5-5 from beyond the arc last night and has shown a lot of confidence in his shot and has been aggressive offensively. Even if Harris returns, it’s going to be hard to not play Barea 20+ minutes.

Secondary Plays

None

Houston

There’s a good chance that Dwight Howard misses this game due to a knee injury that he’s been dealing with. Replacement minutes will be spread out among the reserves, and none of them stand to benefit greatly. The big boost goes to the other starters since they will be getting a few more shots than usual. They did get Patrick Beverley back which definitely boosts their perimeter defense and gives them a reliable point guard in place of the inconsistent Isaiah Canaan.

Elite Plays

James Harden — Harden will shoulder even more of the offensive load than usual with Howard out, and how often the ball will be in his hands makes him a very enticing option. Without an offensive post presence, the Rockets will be free to run up and down the court even more than usual, and that plays directly into Harden’s strengths.

Kostas Papanikolaou — With the injuries to Terrence Jones and Dwight Howard, Papanikolaou will continue to see a decent amount of minutes and can be a viable source of cap relief. He has 30 point upside at a very low price — worth a look for GPP’s.

Secondary Plays

Trevor Ariza — This is more of a price play than anything else. For cash games, Ariza’s point-per-dollar ratios are extremely fair. Dallas ranks 24th against small forwards.

NBA Grind Down Page 1 – Page 2

About the Author

JeffElJefe
JeffElJefe

Working in the Fantasy Sports industry since 2012, Jeff has witnessed Daily Fantasy Sports from every angle: business, content, and as a player. He’s been featured in the New York Times, the L.A. Times, numerous books including Dan Barbarisi’s “Dueling with Kings”, and numerous documentaries including Jason Baumgardner’s “Perfect Lineup”.

On the business side he worked with several startup operators in direct competition with FanDuel and DraftKings. Jeff brought a player’s perspective to the product side of things and was innovative with new features that you see the bigger sites now implementing today.

Content has always been a passion for him, so the opportunity to write for RotoGrinders early in his career was something to jump at. Jeff hosted popular shows for MLB, NBA, and NFL content and often focused on teaching a contrarian approach long before it was cool to do so.

Jeff’s run as a player has been capped off by what many refer to as the best year in DFS tournament history. A baseball live final win (DK), a football Million dollar score, and 2 2nd place finishes in FD live finals.

You can follow Jeff on Twitter: @JeffKCollins