NBA Grind Down: Sunday, March 15th - Page Two
Portland at Toronto – 7:00 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Toronto -2, 203.5 Over/Under
- Portland Proj. Starters – Lillard-Afflalo-Batum-Aldridge-Lopez
- Toronto Proj. Starters – Lowry-DeRozan-Ross-Johnson-Valanciunas
| Portland | Toronto | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 203 |  | Vegas Total | 203 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 2.0 | Vegas Sprd | -2.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 100.75 | Team Proj. | 102.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.65 | Team Pace | 95.92 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Damian Lillard | Arron Afflalo | Nicolas Batum | LaMarcus Aldridge | Robin Lopez | Proj Starter | Kyle Lowry | DeMar DeRozan | Terrence Ross | Amir Johnson | Jonas Valanciunas | |
| Opp. Season | 23 | 12 | 26 | 7 | 12 | Opp. Season | 24 | 19 | 13 | 2 | 6 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 25 | 18 | 16 | 12 | 25 | Opp. Last 7 | 8 | 8 | 27 | 9 | 22 | |
Portland
Another solid game on this slate has the Blazers going into Toronto to face the Raptors. Portland is one of the higher scoring teams in the league, as they score 102.7 points per game for eighth highest in the league. This game should be very faced paced as Toronto scores the fifth-most points in the league at 104.4.
Elite Plays
Damien Lillard – The place to attack the Raptors, to all of our surprise, has been by playing guys against Lowry at the point guard position. They continue to be in the bottom third of the league at defending the point guard and will have their hands full with Lillard tonight. He has been a bit hit or miss lately as he has alternated 50-point efforts with sub-30 ones. I think we get closer to the 40-50 range tonight.
Secondary Plays
LaMarcus Aldridge – He is worth a mention, as he will have to have a big game for the Blazers to take home the victory, but I have Davis above him by far. If I am paying up for a PF, it will be for AD, but that just makes Aldridge a good tournament play tonight.
Toronto
Toronto comes into this matchup as slight home favorites with a total of 204. This is one of the closer games on the slate tonight and should be an up and down affair with a good amount of points scored. The Blazers have struggled to defend the guards all season long and that is where we will attack them today.
Elite Plays
Kyle Lowry – Maybe he is fully healthy after lingering ailments, because he looks like the Lowry we saw earlier in the season finally. His price is jumping up fast, but is still under $8,000 at DK and priced with some value at other sites around the industry. He is getting close to 40 minutes per game during this run and makes a fantastic play today against Lillard.
Secondary Plays
DeMar DeRozan – He is the other guard I like in this matchup. The emergence of Lowry may take him from 40-point potential down to 30-35, which we have seen in his last two games. Tonight is going to be fast paced/high scoring so DeRozan will have to score a lot for the Raptors to bring a win home.
New York at Phoenix – 9:00 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Phoenix -11, 193.5 Over/Under
- New York Proj. Starters – Galloway-Shved-Thomas-Amundson-Bargnani
- Phoenix Proj. Starters – Bledsoe-Tucker-Morris-Morris-Barron
| New York | Phoenix | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 193 |  | Vegas Total | 193 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 11.0 | Vegas Sprd | -11.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 91.25 | Team Proj. | 102.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 93.27 | Team Pace | 99.3 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Langston Galloway | Alexey Shved | Lance Thomas | Louis Amundson | Andrea Bargnani | Proj Starter | Eric Bledsoe | P.J. Tucker | Marcus Morris | Markieff Morris | Earl Barron | |
| Opp. Season | 18 | 20 | 24 | 9 | 19 | Opp. Season | 20 | 24 | 4 | 8 | 22 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 27 | 12 | 9 | 27 | 1 | Opp. Last 7 | 17 | 15 | 17 | 29 | 11 | |
New York
This Knicks team is bad, and even going up against a slumping Phoenix squad, Vegas gives them no respect as they are huge underdogs. The positive here is the fact that the Suns have been struggling and have not played defense all year long. The Suns give up the fourth-most points per game in the league, so if there were a time to trust the Knicks to put up some points, tonight would be the night.
Elite Plays
Alexey Shved – What is up with this guy? With Calderon out, Shved has really taken over the starting point guard duties and ran with it. Even in a blowout yesterday and playing only 21 minutes, Shved still was able to reach 30 fantasy points and exceed value. If he gets close to full minutes he should be in that 35-40 point range and with his price, makes for a great play tonight.
Secondary Plays
Andrea Bargnani – He may not score 40 fantasy points, even in the best matchups, but is still very cheap and has 30-point upside. With his price, that is more than enough to pay off his salary and he has a great matchup to do so against the Suns tonight.
Phoenix
Phoenix are one of the biggest favorites on the board tonight as they are 11-point favorites at home with a total of 193. The Suns have really struggled to score the ball recently, but this matchup against the Knicks should hopefully end those woes. The Knicks allow the seventh-most points per game in the league and this Suns team should get back on track tonight. They will be without Alex Len, who is out with an ankle injury. Last time he was out, Barron got the start, but it was Brandan Wright who really stepped up and scored 26 fantasy points. He makes a decent punt play at the center position tonight.
Elite Plays
Marcus Morris – While Markieff makes a tremendous tournament play tonight, as he showed us his ceiling in their recent game, he is too inconsistent for his salary as he needs 35 points to pay it off. Marcus, on the other hand, is now starting, still cheap, and has scored over 26 fantasy points in each of his first two starts. He should easily pay off his salary and is one of my favorite value plays at any position.
Secondary Plays
With the blowout potential here, Bledsoe is not on my radar for cash games as he has not made value recently. I can understand if you want to take a GPP flyer on him, however, I like other shooting guards who are much cheaper than him tonight.
Atlanta at L.A. Lakers – 9:30 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Atlanta -8.5, 198 Over/Under
- Atlanta Proj. Starters – Teague-Korver-Carroll-Millsap-Horford
- L.A. Lakers Proj. Starters – Clarkson-Ellington-Johnson-Hill-Black
| Atlanta | L.A. Lakers | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 198 |  | Vegas Total | 198 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -8.5 | Vegas Sprd | 8.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 103.3 | Team Proj. | 94.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.25 | Team Pace | 96.68 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Jeff Teague | Kyle Korver | DeMarre Carroll | Paul Millsap | Al Horford | Proj Starter | Jordan Clarkson | Wayne Ellington | Wesley Johnson | Jordan Hill | Tarik Black | |
| Opp. Season | 30 | 22 | 18 | 12 | 26 | Opp. Season | 13 | 17 | 9 | 15 | 7 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 4 | 25 | 21 | 18 | 10 | Opp. Last 7 | 13 | 16 | 15 | 24 | 5 | |
Atlanta
The last game on the slate has the Hawks traveling into Los Angelas to face the Lakers. This game has the Hawks as 8-point favorites with a total of 198. As we know at this point, the Lakers are always a team to target as they play very little defense and are 28th in the league in points allowed.
Elite Plays
Paul Millsap – Combine his price with the matchup and you have a great play today. He needs about 35-38 fantasy points to reach value and he will have an easy shot at that against the Lakers who have allowed some big games this year to big men. Millsap can do a bit of everything on the court, which allows him to put up decent fantasy numbers even if he is not scoring the ball.
Jeff Teague – Teague has struggled a bit in his last two games, but his price is so low and the match up is just too good not to mention him. Even though they have been better recently, I think the Lakers have held on to allowing the most fantasy points to the Point Guard position all year long.
Secondary Plays
All five starters are in play tonight which means that DeMare Carroll, Al Horford and Kyle Korver make good plays. I think they all have value reaching potential and I do not have a problem if you decide to play any of them.
L.A. Lakers
The Lakers are coming off a pretty embarrassing loss to the Knicks at home the other day and now get a much tougher matchup against the Hawks. The Hawks are a tough matchup for anyone in the league as they allow rank fourth in points allowed per game at 96.6. While I really like the Hawks as they get a pace up matchup, the Lakers, on the other hand, are not really on my radar tonight. I can see the potential in playing Jordan Hill if he is getting starter’s minutes, as well as Jordan Clarkson, but they are a bit too inconsistent and the tough matchup makes them tournament-only plays.
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
None