NBA Grind Down: Sunday, March 16th Page Two
All stat chart buttons below open in an in-screen popup window and include stat tables for all games on the given page of the Grind Down Article
Dallas at Oklahoma City
- Vegas Line – Oklahoma City -8, 216.5 Over/Under
- Dallas Proj. Starters – Calderon-Ellis-Marion-Nowitzki-Dalembert
- Oklahoma City Proj. Starters – Westbrook-Jackson-Durant-Ibaka-Adams
Dallas
The Mavericks are 8 point underdogs tonight against the Thunder in what is expected to be the highest scoring game of the night. The Thunder are a fast paced team, but they are still holding their opponents to less than 100 points per game. In their first meeting, the Thunder did a great job of holding both Dirk Nowitzki and Monta Ellis in check.
The Mavericks are always a tough team to target for fantasy options and with the Mavs being big underdogs on the road, it’s hard to recommend any of them tonight. Shawn Marion could be a deep sleeper, but he’ll be matched up with Kevin Durant who is a very underrated defender.
Oklahoma City
The Thunder face a Mavericks team that plays at an above average pace (96 possessions) per game and they have given up 102.3 per games to their opponents. The two positions that the Mavs have struggled to defend the most are the SF and PF positions. Russell Westbrook makes a solid play as well though. He has been extremely efficient since coming back from his injury and I have a hard time seeing Calderon staying in front of him. Serge Ibaka should continue his hot play tonight against the Mavs who have surrendered the 2nd most FP’s to PF’s over the last 15 days.
- Kevin Durant – Anthony Davis is close, but Durant is the top fantasy option tonight. He had a quiet game by his standards the last time that these two teams met, but I’m not worried about that for tonight. Durant has a great chance of topping 50 FP’s every time he steps on the floor and is a safe play tonight against the Mavs.
Utah at San Antonio
- Vegas Line – San Antonio -15, 199 Over/Under
- Utah Proj. Starters – Burke-Hayward-Jefferson-Williams-Favors
- San Antonio Proj. Starters – Parker-Green-Leonard-Duncan-Splitter
Utah
The Jazz are 15 point underdogs tonight against the Spurs and if you remember the Spurs game a couple of nights ago against the Lakers, I think this could be very similar. The Spurs should build a nice lead early and the starter’s from both teams will likely see limited minutes. The Jazz are only projected to score 92 points tonight and odds are that this turns into a blowout. Avoid all Jazz players tonight.
San Antonio
The Spurs were huge favorites against the Lakers the other night and the game went exactly as expected. The Spurs jumped out to a huge lead and Tony Parker and Tim Duncan both played less than 15 minutes. The Spurs are gearing up for another playoff run and Coach Pop isn’t going to play his starters anymore than absolutely necessary. If you are targeting any players from this game, the scrubs have the best chance of reaching value.
Golden State at Portland
- Vegas Line – Golden State -1.5, 208.5 Over/Under
- Golden State Proj. Starters – Curry-Blake-Iguodala-Lee-Bogut
- Portland Proj. Starters – Lillard-Matthews-Batum-Robinson-Lopez
Golden State
The Warriors travel to Portland to take on the Blazers in what should be a very high scoring game. Both of these play with a quick tempo and like to win with offense. The Blazers will be without LaMarcus Aldridge again tonight which really helps the value of the Warriors’ bigs. Klay Thompson missed Friday’s game and his status for tonight is still up in the air. If he has to sit out, Harrison Barnes would make a nice value play as he would draw the start at SG. Stephen Curry finally topped 30 minutes for the first time in 6 games and has a nice matchup against the Blazers.
- David Lee – I love Lee’s matchup against an Aldridge-less Blazers team. The Blazers will likely give Dorell Wright another start at PF which is a huge mis-match for the Warriors. Lee should have a nice game offensively and he should be able to pound the offensive glass as well.
Portland
The Blazers will be without LaMarcus Aldridge which means Dorell Wright will draw another start. In the Blazers last game, Thomas Robinson only played 7 minutes so he may not be a smart punt play tonight. This is actually a pretty tough matchup for the Blazers. The Warriors own a top 10 defense and are ranked 14th or better against all five positions on the floor.
- Robin Lopez – Lopez has a tough matchup against Bogut, but he’s my favorite play here. Lopez has really played well with Aldridge out of the lineup this season and his price is still cheap across the industry. I’m predicting him to top 30 FP’s tonight which is more than enough to reach value.
Cleveland at L.A.Clippers
- Vegas Line – L.A.Clippers -11.5, 206.5 Over/Under
- Cleveland Proj. Starters – Irving-Waiters-Deng-Thompson-Hawes
- L.A.Clippers Proj. Starters – Paul-Collison-Barnes-Griffin-Jordan
Cleveland
The Cavs are 11.5 point underdogs tonight against the Clippers, but have picked up back to back wins on the road against the Suns and the Warriors. The Clippers are a very fast-paced team that has not been great defensively. That said, with a line this big, the Cavs players are probably best served as GPP options.
L.A.Clippers
The Clippers have a nice matchup against the Cavs tonight. The Cavs are giving up 101.5 points per game and the Warriors offense has been firing on all cylinders lately. The Clippers have won 10 straight games and are looking for their 11th tonight. The Cavs are ranked 8th and 11th against the PF and Center positions, but are ranked 29th and 28th against PG’s and SF’s. Chris Paul, Darren Collison, and Matt Barnes are the recommended plays here.