NBA Grind Down: Sunday, March 29th - Page Two
Detroit at Miami – 6:00 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Miami -3, 194 Over/Under
- Detroit Proj. Starters – Jackson-Caldwell-Pope-Butler-Tolliver-Drummond
- Miami Proj. Starters – Dragic-Wade-Deng-Walker-Haslem
| Detroit | Miami | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 194 |  | Vegas Total | 194 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 3.0 | Vegas Sprd | -3.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 95.5 | Team Proj. | 98.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.47 | Team Pace | 93.12 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Reggie Jackson | Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | Caron Butler | Anthony Tolliver | Andre Drummond | Proj Starter | Goran Dragic | Dwyane Wade | Luol Deng | Henry Walker | Udonis Haslem | |
| Opp. Season | 9 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 10 | Opp. Season | 4 | 14 | 16 | 29 | 29 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 7 | 15 | 22 | 25 | 21 | Opp. Last 7 | 4 | 11 | 26 | 10 | 19 | |
Detroit
Detroit travels down to South Beach for a matchup with the also playoff-hopeful Miami Heat. The big news has been the injury to Greg Monroe, which has not opened up a huge amount of value for the Detroit big men, but has increased the role of the guards in the scoring department for the Pistons. The Heat are one of the better defensive teams in the league, as they allow the third-fewest points per game in the league this year.
Elite Plays
Reggie Jackson – His price has risen above the 8k mark, but it is for good reason. He has scored over 42 fantasy points in each of his last four games and has a good match up against Dragic tonight.
Secondary Plays
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope – Pope provides good value at the shooting guard position tonight. He has played a ton of minutes lately and has really stepped up his offensive game since Monroe has been out. He should at least hit value tonight and has the potential for a 30+-fantasy point effort.
Andre Drummond – Drummond would be an elite play if Whiteside sits tonight, as he would be able to absolutely dominate inside if this is the case. Check the news as Whiteside was recently upgraded to questionable.
Miami
The not-so-surprising news out of Miami is that Wade’s body seems to have finally broken down this year, as even though he came back last game, he only played 22 minutes. He appears to be playing tonight, but check the news later for updates. Vegas has Miami as 3-point favorites with a total of 193. This game is one the Heat need for playoff hopes.
Elite Plays
None – It is hard to trust the Miami backcourt with no Wade news at the moment. If he plays but only plays 22 minutes, there’s not a lot of value left in that backcourt.
Secondary Plays
Luol Deng- This pick is here assuming Chris Andersen and Whiteside are out, as we finally saw what Deng should do without the big men in the lineup. 17 points and 10 rebounds should be his line again if he gets 35 minutes against the Pistons, who struggle against opposing frontcourts, which Deng could be in with the injuries.
Dallas at Indiana – 7:00 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Indiana -1, 201.5 Over/Under
- Dallas Proj. Starters – Rondo-Harris-Parsons-Nowitzki-Chandler
- Indiana Proj. Starters – Hill-Miles-Hill-West-Hibbert
| Dallas | Indiana | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 201 |  | Vegas Total | 201 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 1.0 | Vegas Sprd | -1.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 100.3 | Team Proj. | 101.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 97.03 | Team Pace | 95.56 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Rajon Rondo | Devin Harris | Chandler Parsons | Dirk Nowitzki | Tyson Chandler | Proj Starter | George Hill | C.J. Miles | Solomon Hill | David West | Roy Hibbert | |
| Opp. Season | 16 | 24 | 4 | 2 | 8 | Opp. Season | 21 | 8 | 22 | 15 | 16 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 25 | 25 | 1 | 14 | 5 | Opp. Last 7 | 11 | 30 | 23 | 17 | 16 | |
Dallas
The Dallas Mavericks have been a team I really hate from a fantasy perspective all year. They spread the fantasy points around way too much considering they are the third-highest scoring team in the league at 104.2 points per game. This will be a big pace down match up for them, as the Pacers who are in the top-five in points allowed per game. Still Vegas sees the potential here for a high scoring game as the total is set at 200. Monta Ellis has been ruled out for tonight’s game, which opens up some value across the Dallas lineup.
Elite Plays
Chandler Parsons – The injury to Ellis should open up a few more shots all around, but especially to Parsons, who seems to have thrived when one of the starters is out of the lineup. He is around the 6k mark across the industry, and I think 30 fantasy points is highly obtainable tonight.
Secondary Plays
Devin Harris – Harris may step into the starting role with Ellis out. For near minimum price across the industry, he would make for a great value play and should get around 30 minutes.
Indiana
While the Mavs have a pace down matchup, the Pacers get the other side of the matchup and get a bit of a boost for their players. The Mavs are in the bottom-third of the league in points allowed per game at 100.9, and the Pacers are small one-point favorites. This game should stay close and should result in some quality fantasy performances.
Elite Plays
George Hill- Hill has been tremendous for the Pacers recently and has 32+ fantasy points in each of his last four games. He is getting a full compliment of minutes down the stretch and we should expect him to play 35+ in this game. He will match up with Rondo and the Mavs’ 21st ranked defense against the point guard position.
Secondary Plays
C.J. Miles would have been a secondary play with Rodney Stuckey out, but with Stuckey looking more likely to play, there are very few other options for the Pacers.
Memphis at San Antonio – 7:00 PM EST
- Vegas Line – San Antonio -8, 193.5 Over/Under
- Memphis Proj. Starters – Conley-Lee-Allen-Randolph-Gasol
- San Antonio Proj. Starters – Parker-Green-Leonard-Duncan-Splitter
| Memphis | San Antonio | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 193 |  | Vegas Total | 193 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 8.0 | Vegas Sprd | -8.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 92.8 | Team Proj. | 100.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 94.31 | Team Pace | 96 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Mike Conley | Courtney Lee | Tony Allen | Zach Randolph | Marc Gasol | Proj Starter | Tony Parker | Danny Green | Kawhi Leonard | Tim Duncan | Tiago Splitter | |
| Opp. Season | 10 | 1 | 1 | 24 | 15 | Opp. Season | 7 | 11 | 13 | 4 | 2 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 6 | 26 | 2 | 27 | 4 | Opp. Last 7 | 18 | 27 | 15 | 23 | 15 | |
Memphis
While this might be a decent game to watch if you like this type of basketball, the matchup looks to be one of the worst for fantasy basketball. Both are in the top ten in points allowed per game and Vegas believes it will be low scoring as it’s total is the lowest of the day at 193. Tony Allen is currently questionable for the game.
Elite Plays
None – The Grizzlies are not playing well right now and their players are not producing for their salaries.
Secondary Plays
I can see taking tournament plays from this game, but Randolph and Gasol have struggled recently, and although Green has played well for his price, he has the toughest matchup in the game.
San Antonio
San Antonio is battling for the seventh playoff spot in the West, which is really ridiculous when you look at the the Eastern Conference seventh place record. The Spurs continue to be extremely difficult to trust and now have one of the worst matchups on the board. They are, however, eight-point favorites tonight.
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Kawhi Leonard- As the highest priced small forward in the late slate, he is also the most consistent for the late slate. If Memphis continues to play poorly, the Spurs may not need a full game from Leonard, but I think Memphis comes in ready to play and Leonard gets his usual 35-40 point fantasy effort.
Oklahoma City at Phoenix – 9:00 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Phoenix -1, 213.5 Over/Under
- Oklahoma City Proj. Starters – Westbrook-Waiters-Singler-Kanter-Adams
- Phoenix Proj. Starters – Bledsoe-Tucker-Morris-Morris-Len
| Oklahoma City | Phoenix | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 213 |  | Vegas Total | 213 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 1.0 | Vegas Sprd | -1.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 106.3 | Team Proj. | 107.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 98.13 | Team Pace | 99.14 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Russell Westbrook | Dion Waiters | Kyle Singler | Enes Kanter | Steven Adams | Proj Starter | Eric Bledsoe | P.J. Tucker | Marcus Morris | Markieff Morris | Alex Len | |
| Opp. Season | 15 | 19 | 25 | 9 | 19 | Opp. Season | 27 | 7 | 17 | 28 | 4 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 9 | 5 | 18 | 22 | 10 | Opp. Last 7 | 23 | 2 | 16 | 21 | 24 | |
Oklahoma City
The last game on the slate gives us the complete opposite of the previous game. We have two top ten scoring teams in the league as well as two bottom third teams in points allowed battling each other. This results in the highest total of the day at 213. You are going to need players from this one unless you want to see your name fall from the leaderboards late. Guys like Dion Waiters and Steven Adams are options due to the matchup, but are tournament only for me.
Elite Plays
Enes Kanter – He has played very well, stepping up as the best big man on the team by far. It is too bad this squad is so decimated by injury, because they would have been fun to watch at full strength. Kanter’s price only requires about a 35 fantasy point effort, which should be easy for him tonight.
Secondary Plays
Russell Westbrook – The price requires 55+ from Westbrook, and he has not hit that in his last three tries. He could very well change that in this matchup, which looks like an ideal situation for a big game. The only reason he is not an elite play is because the late slate does have other option in it, but do you want to get stuck not playing Westbrook when he goes for 70?
Phoenix
As said in the Thunder write up, this has the potential to be by far the highest scoring game of the night. The Suns, most importantly, will likely continue to be without their starting point guard in Brandon Knight. This adds a lot of value to this game for the Suns. Get some of these guys in your lineup in order to be successful tonight.
Elite Plays
Marcus Morris – Marcus is making a late season push at top Morris brother on the Suns. While getting the starting nod with Brandon Knight out, Morris has put up great numbers and is coming off a 44-minute, 39-fantasy point performance. His price has not adjusted and he makes a great power forward option tonight.
Secondary Plays
Eric Bledsoe – The matchup sets Bledsoe up for a great game tonight, but he is a secondary play due to consistency. His ceiling has been 50 fantasy points all year, but even in some great matchups, he has struggled to get 30.
Markieff Morris- The same write up could be said about Markieff, as he has so much potential, but so much inconsistency. The risk is a bit less with Kieff, as his price is not as high as Bledsoe’s, and in this matchup, he needs to be considered.