NBA Grind Down: Sunday, March 2nd

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-03-02 18:48:48

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NBA Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

Click ‘Stat Chart’ Buttons Below for Pop-Ups of Essential Game-Specific Statistics including Defense vs. Position and Pace

New York at Chicago

Vegas Line – Chicago -7, 185 Over/Under
New York Proj. Starters – Felton-Prigioni-Smith-Anthony-Chandler
Chicago Proj. Starters – Hinrich-Butler-Dunleavy-Boozer-Noah

New York

Happy Sunday Grinders! We have a 7 game slate today that features two day games and 5 night games. Most of the DFS sites are offering leagues for both. The first game features the Knicks and Bulls. This game has the lowest total of the day as it is set at only 185 points. The Knicks have a very tough matchup against this pesky Bulls’ defense that is only giving up an average of 92.3 points per game which is the second fewest in the league.

The pace of play and DvP rankings don’t help the Knicks’ case either. The Bulls are only average 93 possessions per game which is right near the bottom of the league. The Bulls are also ranked 8th or better at defending all positions on the floor in terms of fantasy points allowed. You can argue that good offense beats good defense, but good offense in an extremely slow paced game still won’t be enough to cover value which is what we are looking to do. Avoid all Knicks today.

Chicago

The Bulls have been resilient all season long. After the Deng trade, many experts around the league figured that the Bulls were going to tank, but Thibodeau has his guys playing hard. The Bulls have won 8 of their last 10 games and are very quietly in the 4th spot in the East. Their matchup tonight against the Knicks looks favorable for a couple of positions, but overall the Knicks have been pretty solid defensively this season.

The Knicks are only giving up 100.4 points per game and have been very stout defending bigs down low. The Knicks are ranked 1st and 4th at defending PF’s and Centers this season. While Joakim Noah has been a fantasy beast over the past two weeks, a matchup against a lengthy Chandler could prove difficult. Carlos Boozer would seem to have a nice matchup against Carmelo, but the numbers just don’t support it.

Jimmy Butler – Since coming back from injury, Butler has scored 30 or more FP’s in each of those games. He is starting to become a much more complete offensive player and he is starting to attack the rim a lot more which has really helped his shooting percentage over the past couple of weeks. Thibs likes to play Butler 40+ minutes in close games and I like his matchup against Prigioni.

Golden State at Toronto

Vegas Line – Golden State -2.5, 202 Over/Under
Golden State Proj. Starters – Curry-Thompson-Iguodala-Lee-Bogut
Toronto Proj. Starters – Lowry-Derozan-Ross-Johnson-Valanciunas

Golden State

The Warriors bounced back nicely the other night to pick up a huge win in New York against the Knicks. As predicted, Stephen Curry had a big game even in a tough matchup against Felton. Curry is faced with another tough matchup tonight as Kyle Lowry has managed to shut down opposing PG’s all season long. I’m having a tough time paying up for Curry tonight and Lowry looks like the better play as he is cheaper and has the better matchup of the two.

As a whole, the matchup against the Raptors is below average. The Raptors are only 94 possessions per game (which is well below the league average), they are only giving up 97.1 points per game (ranked 5th in the NBA), and their DvP rankings look pretty solid all around as they are ranked 15th or better against all five positions in terms of fantasy points allowed.

Andre Iguodala – After averaging over 30 FP’s per game in his previous 5 games, Iggy has now scored under 25 FP’s in 3 straight. A lot of that has to do with the way the games played out though. Iggy didn’t see more than 27 minutes in any of those games and he typically plays closer to 37-38 minutes per game. This is a nice spot for him tonight, especially if Terrence Ross isn’t able to suit up and John Salmons ends up getting the start opposite Iggy.

Toronto

The Raptors are playing some great basketball. They have won 6 of their last 10 games and are currently sitting in the 3rd seed in the East. There are two injuries to keep your eye on in this one. Both Kyle Lowry and Terrence Ross sprained their ankles the other night against Washington. It sounds like Lowry is expected to start and Ross’ status is much more in doubt. Check for an update on their status closer to tip-off. John Salmons and Greivis Vasquez would both be nice value plays if they have to sit.

The Raptors matchup against the Warriors is actually a lot tougher than you might think. While the Warriors are averaging 98 possessions per game this season, they are only giving up 98.7 points per game which is the 8th fewest in the NBA. Not only that, but the Warriors are ranked 17th or better against all five positions on the floor in terms of fantasy points allowed. DeMar DeRozan may have a tough time getting it going against these tough wing defenders. Kyle Lowry is really the only player that I like in his one, but make sure that he is in the lineup before using him in your leagues.

Utah at Indiana

Vegas Line – Indiana -12.5, 189.5 Over/Under
Utah Proj. Starters – Burke-Hayward-Jefferson-Williams-Favors
Indiana Proj. Starters – Hill-Stephenson-George-West-Hibbert

Utah

The Pacers have had a bad habit of letting bad teams keep the games close lately. I’m not sure that’s going to be the case again tonight though. The Jazz are one of the worst road teams in the league (7-21) and are 12.5 point underdogs tonight. The Pacers have dropped in the DvP rankings over the past two weeks, but are still ranked 7th or better against all positions on the season. The Jazz have a very tough matchup tonight and there aren’t any viable fantasy options here.

Indiana

The Pacers come into this game as 12.5 point favorites and there has been a lot of talk recently about the impact of potential blowouts on fantasy performance. There have been a couple of columns here on RG as well as a very nice piece by Renee Miller on Rotowire.com. She broke down the fantasy performances of players in expected blowouts and determined that the studs had the most difficult time covering value of the 3 groups of players (studs, mid-range, scrubs). While the potential for big fantasy performances is still there for star players, their average as a whole has been down in potential blowouts.

This leads us to tonight’s game with the Pacers. With the Jazz being on the wrong end of way too many blowouts this season, I will be avoiding the expensive players of the Pacers. This takes Paul George out of play. I still think Lance Stephenson could be in for a nice game though, he tends to play 33+ minutes in all games regardless of a blowout or not. He’s probably your safest bet if you want to target anyone from this game. C.J. Watson would make a nice value play if George Hill has to sit out again tonight.

Philadelphia at Orlando

Vegas Line – Orlando -10.5, 213.5 Over/Under
Philadelphia Proj. Starters – Carter-Williams-Wroten-Anderson-Young-Moultrie
Orlando Proj. Starters – Nelson-Oladipo-Afflalo-Harris-Vucevic

Philadelphia

The Sixers and Magic met the other night and played a first half that looked nothing like what we were expecting. Neither team managed to top 50 points by halftime. The second half was a different story though and both team’s offenses got going. The total for this game is 213.5 points which is very high considering the fact that neither of these offenses are very efficient. The Sixers are to the NBA what the Eagles were to the NFL and what Coors Field is to MLB.

The Sixers’ matchup is a favorable one. The Magic are giving up 102 points per game this season and are ranked 19th or worse against PG’s, SG’s, SF’s, and PF’s. The Magic have been very stout against opposing Centers ever since Nikola Vucevic returned from his injury. That said, Henry Sims, Arnett Moultrie, and Byron Mullens were never great fantasy options to begin with.

Tony Wroten – Even though Wroten is still coming off the bench, he has been the most consistent player on the Sixers since the Hawes and Turner trades. Wroten has topped 24 FP’s in each of his last 4 games and has seen at least 26 minutes of playing time in each of those game. I really like Wroten again tonight as he will get minutes regardless of the outcome of the game.

Thaddeus Young – After a blazing first couple of games with Turner and Hawes gone, Thad has cooled off a bit. He put up 32 FP’s against this Magic team the other night and should be able to top that mark tonight. Thad is the Magic’s best offensive player and he is close to leading the league in steals over the last month. I like his matchup against the Magic who are ranked 22nd against PF’s this season.

Orlando

The Magic are the top team to target tonight for DFS. They have the best matchup on the board as they are facing a historically bad defense of the Sixers. The Sixers are giving up more than 111 points per game this season and have been even worse since trading away Hawes and Turner. The Sixers are ranked 29th or 30th against all five positions in terms of fantasy points allowed and all five starters from the Magic are in play tonight. There hasn’t been an update on Arron Afflalo status for today’s game, but after sitting out yesterday’s game, he has to be considered questionable at best.

Nikola Vucevic – Vucey has been on a tear lately. He has scored 33 or more FP’s in 7 of his last 8 games including a 48 FP performance against the Sixers the other night. His price is very expensive on DS, but he is a terrific play on all of the other major DFS sites. Dollar for dollar, he’s the top Center on the board tonight.

Victor Oladipo – The other day I predicted him to have a 40 fantasy point game against the Sixers. While he didn’t quite reach that mark, he still posted 35 FP’s and had a very nice second half. This type of game fits his style of play perfectly and he should be able to attack the rim anytime he wants as the Sixers do not seem to know what help defense is.

Jameer Nelson – Nelson put up a very generous stat line the other night against the Sixers. He finished with 16 points, 12 assists, and 6 rebounds. While I don’t like him as much as Oladipo, I think you can easily fit him in your lineup. Don’t be afraid to use 2-4 Magic players in your leagues tonight.

Charlotte at Oklahoma City

Vegas Line – Oklahoma City -9, 203 Over/Under
Charlotte Proj. Starters – Walker-Henderson-Kidd-Gilchrist-McRoberts-Jefferson
Oklahoma City Proj. Starters – Westbrook-Sefolosha-Durant-Ibaka-Adams

Charlotte

The Bobcats travel to OKC to take on a struggling Thunder team. The Thunder have given up at least 103 points in 5 straight games and have not been able to pull away from teams lately. This bodes well for the Bobcats tonight, but at the same time, they are still 9 point underdogs and we know how much a blowout can hurt the underdog’s fantasy production. Kemba Walker makes an interesting play here, but I don’t want to wrap up too much of my salary in a team that is a big underdog.

Al Jefferson – Big Al’s price has really come down across the industry and I like his matchup against the rookie Steven Adams. The Thunder have been great against Centers this season, but that is with Perkins in the lineup. Over the last 15 days, the Thunder are ranked 22nd against Centers. Look for Big Al to cover his value and potentially even more.

Oklahoma City

The Thunder’s matchup against the Bobcats is actually a tough one. The Bobcats play at a slower than average pace and are only giving up 96.7 points per game this season which is the 4th lowest in the NBA. That said, you can never rule out Kevin Durant. He has huge fantasy performances against every team in the league and makes a nice pick to anchor your team around if you can afford him. Russell Westbrook also makes an interesting play, the one position that the Bobcats have struggled to defend this season if the PG position.