NBA Grind Down: Thursday, April 23rd
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!
Note: Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NBA Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review.
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Cleveland at Boston – 7:00 PM ET
- Vegas Line – Cleveland -4, 203.5 Over/Under
- Cleveland Proj. Starters – Irving-Smith-James-Love-Mozgov
- Boston Proj. Starters – Smart-Bradley-Turner-Bass-Zeller
| Cleveland | Boston | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 203.5 |  | Vegas Total | 203.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -4.0 | Vegas Sprd | 4.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 103.8 | Team Proj. | 99.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 94.08 | Team Pace | 94.08 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Kyrie Irving | J.R. Smith | LeBron James | Kevin Love | Timofey Mozgov | Proj Starter | Marcus Smart | Avery Bradley | Evan Turner | Brandon Bass | Tyler Zeller | |
| Opp. Season | 21 | 2 | 17 | 20 | 22 | Opp. Season | 10 | 22 | 22 | 9 | 14 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 18 | 2 | 25 | 16 | 16 | Opp. Last 7 | 12 | 13 | 16 | 4 | 6 | |
Cleveland
The Celtics have been competitive in the first two games of the series, but the Cavailers have cruised to an easy 2-0 lead. They will look to take a commanding lead in the series with a victory in Game 3. Now that the series has shifted to Boston, there is a smaller chance of this game turning into a blowout. The Cavaliers are only 4.5-point favorites with their team total set at 104 points. The big three are all in play tonight against Boston.
Opponent Breakdown (Boston)
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.2 (Rank: 22)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 12
Rebounding Differential Rank: 20
Elite Plays
Kyrie Irving (FanDuel: $8000, DraftKings: $8100 / MPG: 37 / Usage Rate: 26.1)
Irving has been terrific in the first two playoff games of his career. He is averaging 28 points, 4 rebounds, and 4 assists in 40 minutes per contest. The Celtics have had a tough time stopping him offensively and that will likely continue here in Game 3. LeBron James is obviously in play here as well, but I’m leaning toward taking the cheaper route with Irving/Love.
Kevin Love (FD: $7000, DK: $7300 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 21.6)
Love has yet to reach his potential in this series. Thanks to foul trouble, he has only averaged 31.5 minutes per game. He has turned that into 31 fantasy points per outing though, so if his minutes come up to the 35-40 range, he could be a steal at this price point. The matchup is certainly in his favor, as the Celtics were ranked 20th against power forwards and 20th in rebounding differential during the regular season.
Secondary Plays
LeBron James (FD: $10700, DK: $10700 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 32.5)
J.R. Smith (FD: $4800, DK: $5000 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 19.1)
Boston
The Celtics have played about as well as anyone outside of Boston could have expected, yet they are still down 0-2 in the series. They face a pivotal Game 3 at home against the Cavaliers. They are listed as 4.5-point underdogs with their team total set at 100 points. The Celtics’ rotation is as deep as any team in the playoffs though, which does make predicting fantasy production a little difficult. Outside of Isaiah Thomas, the Celtics are best suited as tournament options.
Opponent Breakdown (Cleveland)
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.5 (Rank: 12)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 20
Rebounding Differential Rank: 8
Elite Plays
Isaiah Thomas (FD: $7000, DK: $6900 / MPG: 26 / Usage Rate: 27.5)
IT2 is really the only Celtics’ player that is on my radar in cash games tonight. Even though he comes off the bench, he is seeing starters’ minutes in the playoffs. In the first two games of the series, he is averaging 23 points, 2 rebounds, and 8 assists in 31 minutes per contest. He is still priced right around $7,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
Secondary Plays
Evan Turner (FD: $6700, DK: $6200 / MPG: 28 / Usage Rate: 19.5)
Chicago at Milwaukee – 8:00 PM ET
- Vegas Line – Chicago -2.5, 187 Over/Under
- Chicago Proj. Starters – Rose-Butler-Dunleavy-Gasol-Noah
- Milwaukee Proj. Starters – Carter-Williams-Middleton-Antetokounmpo-Ilyasova-Pachulia
| Chicago | Milwaukee | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 187 |  | Vegas Total | 187 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -2.5 | Vegas Sprd | 2.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 94.8 | Team Proj. | 92.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 97.12 | Team Pace | 97.12 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Derrick Rose | Jimmy Butler | Mike Dunleavy | Pau Gasol | Joakim Noah | Proj Starter | Michael Carter-Wiliams | Khris Middleton | Giannis Antetokounmpo | Ersan Ilyasova | Zaza Pachulia | |
| Opp. Season | 1 | 7 | 24 | 14 | 15 | Opp. Season | 25 | 3 | 18 | 11 | 7 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 20 | 18 | 13 | 21 | 15 | Opp. Last 7 | 13 | 7 | 7 | 11 | 12 | |
Chicago
The Bulls won the first two games of the series by an average of 10.5 points. The Bucks faltered down the stretch of the regular season and unless they turn things around in Game 3, they will make a quick exit from the playoffs. The Bulls are listed as 2.5-point favorites in a game that features a low total of 187 points. Nikola Mirotic has already been ruled out of Game 3, which should give a big boost in minutes to Taj Gibson. Mirotic’s absence should also solidify the minutes of Joakim Noah and Pau Gasol.
Opponent Breakdown (Milwaukee)
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.3 (Rank: 7)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 2
Rebounding Differential Rank: 19
Elite Plays
Derrick Rose (FD: $6100, DK: $7500 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 30.9)
So much for Rose’s minute restriction. He played 38 minutes in Game 2, after only seeing 27 minutes of action in Game 1. We can expect his minutes to be closer to his Game 2 total tonight, which is great news for his fantasy production. Rose has played at an elite level in this series and he’s close to a must play on FanDuel at a price of $6,100. I also have him pegged as a top option on DraftKings, even at the elevated price point of $7,500.
Joakim Noah (FD: $6400, DK: $6300 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 13.7)
The Bucks continue to send double teams to Pau Gasol, which makes me a bit nervous about using him at his price point. Obviously, he contributes in other categories, but his offense has been limited in this series. If I’m targeting a big man from the Bulls, I’d rather use Noah. He could see upwards of 35 minutes tonight with Nikola Mirotic out and he has averaged 33 fantasy points per game in this series.
Secondary Plays
Pau Gasol (FD: $8800, DK: $8800 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 24.4)
Jimmy Butler (FD: $8500, DK: $8000 / MPG: 39 / Usage Rate: 21.7)
Mike Dunleavy (FD: $4400, DK: $4700 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 14.3)
Taj Gibson (FD: $4600, DK: $3800 / MPG: 27 / Usage Rate: 17.9)
Milwaukee
The Bucks need a big performance in Game 3 to swing a little momentum back in their favor. If they lose this game at home, they have basically zero chance of advancing to the next round of the playoffs. Vegas is expecting a very competitive game here, as the Bucks are only 2.5-point favorites. The Bucks are like the Celtics in that they have a deep and inconsistent rotation. There are a couple of players that have seen consistent minutes in the first two games though, both of which are on my radar tonight.
Opponent Breakdown (Chicago)
Points Allowed Per Game: 98 (Rank: 10)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 11
Rebounding Differential Rank: 5
Elite Plays
Giannis Antetokounmpo (FD: $6500, DK: $6100 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 19.6)
It feels a little strange listing Antetokounmpo as an elite fantasy option, but he’s seeing consistent minutes and his price is depressed on both FanDuel and DraftKings. He is coming off of solid all around outing, posting 6 points, 11 rebounds, 4 assists, 2 blocks, and 2 steals in 38 minutes of action. He should be able to replicate that type of production tonight in Game 3.
Khris Middleton (FD: $6600, DK: $6000 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 19.8)
Middleton is more consistent than Antetokounmpo, so if you are deciding between the two, I’d lean toward Middleton. He has scored 31 and 32 fantasy points in the first two games of the series, averaging 36 minutes per contest. He’s going to be the Bucks’ primary option offensively and he should fly under the radar in both cash games and tournaments.
Secondary Plays
Ersan Ilyasova (FD: $5300, DK: $5500 / MPG: 23 / Usage Rate: 22.1)
Golden State at New Orleans – 9:30 PM ET
- Vegas Line – Golden State -5, 203 Over/Under
- Golden State Proj. Starters – Curry-Thompson-Barnes-Green-Bogut
- New Orleans Proj. Starters – Evans-Gordon-Pondexter-Davis-Asik
| Golden State | New Orleans | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 203 |  | Vegas Total | 203 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -5.0 | Vegas Sprd | 5.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 104.0 | Team Proj. | 99.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.97 | Team Pace | 96.97 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Stephen Curry | Klay Thompson | Harrison Barnes | Draymond Green | Andrew Bogut | Proj Starter | Tyreke Evans | Eric Gordon | Quincy Podexter | Anthony Davis | Omer Asik | |
| Opp. Season | 14 | 14 | 10 | 7 | 20 | Opp. Season | 7 | 6 | 13 | 22 | 16 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 17 | 6 | 18 | 22 | 21 | Opp. Last 7 | 11 | 11 | 23 | 18 | 8 | |
Golden State
The Warriors have been challenged by the Pelicans in the first two games of the series, but they are still up 2-0. The Warriors have a great chance to finish off the series four games, but they’ll need to pick up a win in New Orleans tonight to do so. They are listed as 5-point favorites with their team total set at 104 points. The Warriors have had no issues on the offensive end of the floor and even though this game is on the road, Golden State’s offense should be in for another big outing tonight.
Opponent Breakdown (New Orleans)
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.5 (Rank: 12)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 22
Rebounding Differential Rank: 7
Elite Plays
Stephen Curry (FD: $9700, DK: $10300 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 28.4)
Curry had a subpar fantasy outing by his standards in Game 2, but he did drop 49 fantasy points on the Pelicans in Game 1. He may have to carry a bit more of the load offensively tonight, as role players typically don’t play as well on the road as they do at home. Curry has as much upside as any player not-named Anthony Davis. He is easily the top point guard option on the board tonight, although dollar for dollar, Rose is the slightly better play.
Draymond Green (FD: $7600, DK: $7900 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 17.2)
Green has been terrific in this series. In addition to his production on the offensive end of the floor, he has really been able to keep Anthony Davis in check when he’s been in the game. Green scored 47 fantasy points in Game 1 and he backed it up with 40 fantasy points in Game 2. He’s almost been as productive as Anthony Davis, yet he is about $4,000 cheaper. He remains an elite fantasy option heading into Game 3.
Andrew Bogut (FD: $6000, DK: $6600 / MPG: 24 / Usage Rate: 13.3)
All aboard the Bogut train! Bogut will remain an elite play in this series until his price is up over $7,000. His boost in minutes more than makes up for the elevated price point. Bogut has averaged 36.5 fantasy points per game in this series and he should see 30-34 minutes tonight in Game 3. I have him and Noah very close dollar for dollar, but will be using both on sites that allow you to roster two centers.
Secondary Plays
Klay Thompson (FD: $7200, DK: $7600 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 27.3)
Harrison Barnes (FD: $4100, DK: $4600 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 14.8)
Andre Iguodala (FD: $4100, DK: $4100 / MPG: 27 / Usage Rate: 13.6)
New Orleans
The Pelicans should be at full-strength tonight, but it may not matter, as they take on the team that had the best record in the NBA during the regular season. The Pelicans are 5-point underdogs with their team total set at 99 points. The role players of the Pelicans can safely be avoided, but expect big minutes from the likes of Anthony Davis, Tyreke Evans, and Eric Gordon.
Opponent Breakdown (Golden State)
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.5 (Rank: 14)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 1
Rebounding Differential Rank: 12
Elite Plays
Anthony Davis (FD: $11700, DK: $10900 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 27.6)
Davis is an elite play tonight, but it’s tough to fit him in your lineups without sacrificing the rest of your team. Davis will play all of the minutes that he can handle and he will remain the primary option offensively. The only question is whether or not it’s worth spending up on him on a night where Pau Gasol and Draymond Green are much cheaper.
Eric Gordon (FD: $5100, DK: $5200 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 19.7)
Gordon hasn’t played well over the last month of play, but his price is depressed and he’s going to continue to see extended action in the playoffs. Gordon should see 35-40 minutes tonight and he only needs roughly 25 fantasy points to reach value. Maybe some home cooking is what he needs to get himself going.
Secondary Plays
Tyreke Evans (FD: $7600, DK: $7400 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 25.9)