NBA Grind Down: Thursday, April 2nd
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!
Note: Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NBA Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review.
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Miami at Cleveland – 8:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Cleveland -11.5, 199 Over/Under
- Miami Proj. Starters – Dragic-Wade-Deng-Walker-Whiteside
- Cleveland Proj. Starters – Irving-Smith-James-Love-Mozgov
| Miami | Cleveland | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 199 |  | Vegas Total | 199 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 11.5 | Vegas Sprd | -11.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 93.8 | Team Proj. | 105.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 93.11 | Team Pace | 94.80 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Goran Dragic | Dwyane Wade | Luol Deng | Henry Walker | Hassan Whiteside | Proj Starter | Kyrie Irving | J.R. Smith | LeBron James | Kevin Love | Timofey Mozgov | |
| Opp. Season | 11 | 21 | 18 | 12 | 12 | Opp. Season | 10 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 11 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 16 | 12 | 2 | 8 | 10 | Opp. Last 7 | 14 | 1 | 21 | 16 | 24 | |
Miami
The Heat are currently tied with the Nets for the seventh-seed in the Eastern Conference standings. They are basically in must-win mode for the rest of the season, as there are three teams that are within three games of Miami. The Heat have a tough road ahead of them tonight, as they travel to Cleveland to take on the Cavaliers. The Heat are 11.5-point underdogs and are only projected to score 94 points tonight. Dwyane Wade and Udonis Haslem are both questionable for tonight’s game. Luol Deng is expected to play, after missing Tuesday’s game against the Spurs.
Opponent Breakdown (Cleveland)
Record: 48-27
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.5 (Rank: 12)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 20
Rebounding Differential Rank: 8
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Dwyane Wade (FanDuel: $7500, DraftKings: $7300 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 34.4)
Wade missed shootaround this morning with an illness and he is currently listed as questionable for tonight’s game against the Heat. As long as he’s able, it’s hard to envision Wade sitting this game out. He’s facing his former teammate, LeBron James, and the Heat are in must-win situation. In his first two meetings against LeBron and Co., Wade has averaged 31.5 points, 3.5 rebounds, 3.5 assists, and 3.5 steals per game. His price is also depressed across the industry, as as long as he gets the green light to play, he should be targeted in all lineups.
Goran Dragic (FD: $6400, DK: $6700 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 21.3)
Dragic has struggled in his last three outings, averaging only 18 fantasy points per contest. All players are welcome to a slump every once in a while though and we should welcome him back with open arms at his depressed price point tonight. In his previous seven outings before the slump, Dragic averaged 34 fantasy points per game. He should score closer to 34 fantasy points than 18 fantasy points tonight against Kyrie Irving and the Cavaliers. Dragic would also see a boost if Dwyane Wade is unable to play tonight.
Cleveland
The Cavaliers have won eight of their last ten games. They have a three-game lead over the Raptors for the third-seed in the Eastern Conference standings. They are listed as huge favorites tonight against the Heat, but the matchup isn’t quite as appealing as their team total would suggest. The Heat play at a slow pace and have held their opponents to the third-fewest points per game this season. This game also has the potential to turn into a rout, given the large spread.
Opponent Breakdown (Miami)
Record: 34-40
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.8 (Rank: 3)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 18
Rebounding Differential Rank: 23
Elite Plays
LeBron James (FD: $11000, DK: $9900 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 32.7)
James will take a leisurely stroll down narrative street tonight, as he faces his former team for the third time this season. He has had subpar outings in the first two meetings, averaging only 24.7 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 6.3 assists per game. James has struggled to score against the likes of Luol Deng and Henry Walker, which is a bit surprising. I chalk it up to James trying to force the issue more than anything else. He’s still matchup-proof in daily fantasy and he deserves consideration with only three games on the schedule tonight.
Secondary Plays
Kyrie Irving (FD: $8100, DK: $7700) and Kevin Love (FD: $7400, DK: $7000) are both secondary options tonight against the Heat, but both players are listed as questionable. If Irving is unable to suit up, give a fantasy boost to Matthew Dellavedova and J.R. Smith. If Love is unable to suit up, give a boost to Tristan Thompson and Timofey Mozgov.
Houston at Dallas – 8:30 PM
- Vegas Line – Dallas -2, 210.5 Over/Under
- Houston Proj. Starters – Terry-Harden-Ariza-Jones-Howard
- Dallas Proj. Starters – Rondo-Ellis-Parsons-Nowitzki-Chandler
| Houston | Dallas | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 210.5 |  | Vegas Total | 210.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 2.0 | Vegas Sprd | -2.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 104.3 | Team Proj. | 106.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 99.11 | Team Pace | 96.99 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Jason Terry | James Harden | Trevor Ariza | Terrence Jones | Dwight Howard | Proj Starter | Rajon Rondo | Monta Ellis | Chandler Parsons | Dirk Nowitzki | Tyson Chandler | |
| Opp. Season | 20 | 8 | 23 | 14 | 16 | Opp. Season | 3 | 20 | 22 | 26 | 21 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 6 | 26 | 4 | 27 | 21 | Opp. Last 7 | 10 | 13 | 19 | 21 | 12 | |
Houston
The Rockets picked up a win over the Kings last night in a game that was much closer than most expected it to be. Kevin McHale was forced to play his starters heavy minutes, so they may be playing on tired legs tonight against the Mavericks. This is the one game that is expected to be competitive tonight, as the other two both feature double-digit spreads. The Rockets are listed as 2-point underdogs with their team total set at 104 points. Dwight Howard is expected to play tonight, after sitting out the first game in their back-to-back set.
Opponent Breakdown (Dallas)
Record: 46-29
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.3 (Rank: 21)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 17
Rebounding Differential Rank: 30
Elite Plays
James Harden (FD: $11500, DK: $11300 / MPG: 37 / Usage Rate: 31.2)
Harden was in full “Beard Mode” last night against the Kings, putting up an impressive stat line of 51 points, 8 rebounds, and 6 assists. He has played at least 38 minutes two times in the last three nights, which is a little concerning. The Rockets are still fighting for playoff positioning though, so Harden should see his usual allotment of minutes. Harden will likely be defended by the trio of Monta Ellis, Chandler Parsons, and Al-Farouq Aminu, but they will have trouble defending him in transition. Harden is an elite play in this small slate and a very tough fade in cash games.
Trevor Ariza (FD: $6400, DK: $6600 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 16.7)
We all have those players that we tend to gravitate to in daily fantasy sports. For whatever reason, mine tends to be Ariza. He is always moderately priced and he plays a ton of minutes. He has scored at least 25 fantasy points in nine of his last ten games, averaging 32 fantasy points per contest during that stretch. His price is elevated at the moment, but thanks to all of the injuries, so are his minutes. He should find success tonight against Chandler Parsons and the Mavericks, who are ranked 23rd against small forwards this season.
Secondary Plays
Terrence Jones (FD: $6400, DK: $6800 / MPG: 28 / Usage Rate: 19.3)
Jones was expected to see limited action last night, but he played so well that Coach McHale was forced to play him big minutes. He finished the game with 16 points, 7 rebounds, 3 assists, and 7 blocks. There is some concern that the Rockets could rest him in the second half of a back-to-back, but as of now, all signs point to him playing tonight against the Mavericks.
Pablo Prigioni (FD: $3600, DK: $3100 / MPG: 17 / Usage Rate: 12.1)
Jason Terry is the starting point guard for the Rockets, but Prigioni is playing more minutes and producing at a higher level. In his last three games, Prigioni has averaged 23 fantasy points in 26 minutes per contest. He’s a viable punt play tonight at point guard, especially given the fact that value is hard to come by in this three-game slate.
Dallas
The Mavericks are 5-5 in their last ten games and are all but locked into the seventh-seed in the Western Conference. They are three games behind the sixth-seeded Spurs and four games ahead of the eighth-seeded Thunder. The Mavericks are 2-point favorites against the Rockets in what is expected to be a close, high-scoring game. The Mavericks are projected to score 106 points tonight, which is second only to the Warriors.
Opponent Breakdown (Houston)
Record: 51-24
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.2 (Rank: 16)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 6
Rebounding Differential Rank: 16
Elite Plays
Monta Ellis (FD: $6700, DK: $6500 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 27.8)
Ellis sat out one game with a calf injury, but it didn’t appear to both him in last night’s game against the Thunder. He finished with 26 points, 4 rebounds, and 5 assists. He draws a favorable matchup tonight against James Harden and the Rockets, who are ranked 20th against shooting guards this. Ellis should play at ton of minutes in high-scoring game and tonight is a great time to target him at a depressed price point.
Secondary Plays
Chandler Parsons (FD: $6500, DK: $6500 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 20.5)
Parsons has played well over his last five games, averaging 32 fantasy points in 36 minutes per contest. His price is still moderate across the industry and he draws a favorable matchup against the Rockets, who are ranked 22nd against small forwards this season. If I had to pick between Ariza and Parsons, I would give Ariza a small edge, but both are in play tonight.
Dirk Nowitzki (FD: $5900, DK: $5900 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 25.1)
Nowitzki’s minutes have slowly increased, as the Mavericks gear up for the playoffs. In his last eight games, he has averaged 28 fantasy points in 31 minutes per contest. As long as Nowitzki continues to see around 30 minutes per game, he will continue to make a strong target at this price point. He only needs 30 fantasy points to reach value expectations.
Phoenix at Golden State – 10:30 PM
- Vegas Line – Golden State -12.5, 210.5 Over/Under
- Phoenix Proj. Starters – Bledsoe-Tucker-Morris-Morris-Wright
- Golden State Proj. Starters – Curry-Thompson-Barnes-Green-Bogut
| Phoenix | Golden State | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 210.5 |  | Vegas Total | 210.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 12.5 | Vegas Sprd | -12.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 99.0 | Team Proj. | 111.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 99.08 | Team Pace | 100.56 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Eric Bledsoe | P.J. Tucker | Marcus Morris | Markieff Morris | Brandan Wright | Proj Starter | Stephen Curry | Klay Thompson | Harrison Barnes | Draymond Green | Andrew Bogut | |
| Opp. Season | 7 | 6 | 9 | 19 | 17 | Opp. Season | 18 | 19 | 24 | 9 | 19 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 17 | 3 | 7 | 29 | 5 | Opp. Last 7 | 25 | 7 | 12 | 20 | 16 | |
Phoenix
The Suns have lost four games in a row and are all but out of the playoff race in the Western Conference. They have over-achieved this year, but that doesn’t mean a whole lot when you are still missing the playoffs. The Suns are 12.5-point underdogs tonight against the Warriors. This is a mediocre matchup for potential fantasy production. While the Warriors do play at a very quick pace (fastest in the NBA), they are ranked first in defensive efficiency.
Opponent Breakdown (Golden State)
Record: 61-13
Points Allowed Per Game: 99 (Rank: 14)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 1
Rebounding Differential Rank: 13
Elite Plays
Marcus Morris (FD: $5800, DK: $5800 / MPG: 25 / Usage Rate: 19.2)
Despite being on a tear over the last two weeks, Marcus is still priced under $6,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings. In his last ten games, he has averaged 29 fantasy points in 35 minutes per contest. Even if Brandon Knight (doubtful) somehow plays tonight, Morris should still see around 35 minutes of action with Alex Len out of the lineup. He offers great value at his price point and is a strong play in all leagues.
Brandan Wright (FD: $4600, DK: $4100 / MPG: 19 / Usage Rate: 13.5)
Alex Len has been ruled out of tonight’s game, which means Wright will finally be freed. He should draw the start at center and if he does, he instantly becomes the top value play on the board. In his two starts with the Suns this season, he has averaged 17 points, 9.5 rebounds, and 3.5 blocks per game. He should reach and exceed value with ease tonight.
Secondary Plays
Markieff Morris (FD: $7000, DK: $6100 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 23.7)
Like his brother Marcus, Markieff has also been terrific over the last couple of weeks. In his last ten games, he has averaged 33 fantasy points in 35 minutes per contest. Given their drastic differences in price, I prefer Marcus Morris on FanDuel and Markieff Morris on DraftKings. That said, both are in play tonight against the Warriors.
Golden State
The Warriors have nothing to play for other than pride at this point in the season. That was enough for Steve Kerr to play his starters a ton of minutes against the Clippers, but if this game gets out of hand early, he will likely give his key players some rest. The Warriors are 12.5-point favorites with their team total set at 112 points. This is obviously a great matchup, I’m just concerned that Steve Kerr will want to give his starters as limited action as possible in a potential blowout.
Opponent Breakdown (Phoenix)
Record: 38-37
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.6 (Rank: 26)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 16
Rebounding Differential Rank: 22
Elite Plays
Klay Thompson (FD: $7200, DK: $7300 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 27.4)
Thompson appears to be fully recovered from his ankle injury. In his last three games, he has averaged 37 fantasy points in 32 minutes per contest. Tonight may be the last time to target him at this price point before it skyrockets after the performances that he has had in his last few games. He draws a favorable matchup against the Suns, who are ranked 19th against shooting guards this season. He would also see a small boost if Brandon Knight (doubtful) is unable to play tonight.
Secondary Plays
Stephen Curry (FD: $9900, DK: $9300 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 28.4), Andrew Bogut (FD: $5100, DK: $4700 / MPG: 24 / Usage Rate: 13.2), and Harrison Barnes (FD: $4200, DK: $5000 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 14.8) are all secondary options tonight against the Suns. David Lee would also become a viable option if Draymond Green (questionable) is unable to suit up.