NBA Grind Down: Thursday, March 12th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!
Note: Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NBA Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review.
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Milwaukee at Indiana – 7:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Indiana -7.5, 185.5 Over/Under
- Milwaukee Proj. Starters – Carter-Williams-Middleton-Antetokounmpo-Ilyasova-Pachulia
- Indiana Proj. Starters – Hill-Miles-Hill-West-Hibbert
| Milwaukee | Indiana | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 185.5 |  | Vegas Total | 185.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 7.5 | Vegas Sprd | -7.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 89.0 | Team Proj. | 96.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.36 | Team Pace | 95.44 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Michael Carter-Williams | Khris Middleton | Giannis Antetokounmpo | Ersan Ilyasova | Zaza Pachulia | Proj Starter | George Hill | C.J. Miles | Solomon Hill | David West | Roy Hibbert | |
| Opp. Season | 9 | 25 | 4 | 2 | 7 | Opp. Season | 1 | 10 | 22 | 16 | 19 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 1 | 8 | 19 | 6 | 14 | Opp. Last 7 | 21 | 9 | 22 | 30 | 1 | |
Milwaukee
The Bucks have lost seven of their last ten games and have to face a red-hot Pacers’ team in Indiana tonight. Vegas has the Bucks listed as 7.5-point underdogs in a game that features a very low total of 185 points. The Pacers are one of the slowest paced teams in the NBA and they are ranked in the top seven in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. On a full slate, the Bucks would be an easy team to avoid. However, they are in play tonight with only five games on the schedule.
Opponent Breakdown (Indiana)
Record: 29-34
Points Allowed Per Game: 96 (Rank: 3)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 7
Rebounding Differential Rank: 6
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Michael Carter-Williams (FD: $7800, DK: $6500 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 27)
MCW is a DraftKings-specific play tonight thanks to his cheap price tag of $6,500. He finally looks comfortable as the Bucks’ starting point guard and it’s starting to show in his production. Over his last four games, he is averaging 32 fantasy points in 31 minutes per contest. He draws a tough matchup against George Hill, but this may be the last night to target him at this price point.
Giannis Antetokounmpo (FD: $7000, DK: $6900 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 19.5)
Antetokounmpo is one of the more versatile players in the NBA. He can play all five positions and fill up all areas of the stat sheet. If he could become more of a consistent threat offensively, he could easily be an All-Star in the next couple of years. Tonight he draws a tough matchup against the Pacers, but again, he doesn’t rely solely on scoring for his fantasy production.
Khris Middleton (FD: $6500, DK: $6300 / MPG: 28 / Usage Rate: 19.3)
Middleton dropped 30 points last night against the Magic for the second time in three games. He seems to fly under the radar on a nightly basis, despite the fact that he is averaging 32 fantasy points per game over his last ten. He draws a decent matchup against C.J. Miles and the Pacers. Shooting guard is the one position that has fared well against Indiana.
Indiana
The Pacers have won six games in a row and nine of their last ten. They have done it with great play off the bench, as well as stifling play on the defensive end of the floor. The Pacers are sizable favorites at home tonight against the Bucks. While they have a great chance to extend their winning streak, this is not a matchup that we need to heavily target. The Bucks have allowed the fourth-fewest points per game this season.
Injury Update: C.J. Miles and Roy Hibbert are both questionable for tonight’s game.
Opponent Breakdown (Milwaukee)
Record: 34-30
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.6 (Rank: 4)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 2
Rebounding Differential Rank: 22
Elite Plays
George Hill (FD: $6200, DK: $6500 / MPG: 26 / Usage Rate: 25.3)
Hill has been fairly quiet in his last few outings, but he is still averaging 32.2 fantasy points per game over his last seven. He typically sees minutes in the high 20’s, but will see upwards of 35 minutes in games that come down to the wire. He draws a favorable matchup against Michael Carter-Williams tonight. As evidenced by the recent DvP rankings, he’s not nearly the same caliber of defender as Brandon Knight was.
Secondary Plays
Rodney Stuckey (FD: $6300, DK: $6300 / MPG: 26 / Usage Rate: 23.1)
Stuckey has been on fire recently. Even though he comes off the bench, he is playing starter’s minutes. Over his last nine games, he is averaging 33 fantasy points in 29 minutes per contest. The concern here is that we have to pay a premium for a player in a tough matchup. The Bucks have held opposing shooting guards to the tenth-fewest fantasy points this season.
Memphis at Washington – 7:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Even Spread, 185 Over/Under
- Memphis Proj. Starters – Udrih-Lee-Green-Leuer-Koufos
- Washington Proj. Starters – Wall-Beal-Pierce-Hilario-Gortat
| Memphis | Washington | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 185 |  | Vegas Total | 185 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 0 | Vegas Sprd | 0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 92.5 | Team Proj. | 92.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 94.19 | Team Pace | 95.88 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Beno Udrih | Courtney Lee | Jeff Green | Jon Leuer | Kosta Koufos | Proj Starter | John Wall | Bradley Beal | Paul Pierce | Nene Hilario | Marcin Gortat | |
| Opp. Season | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 3 | Opp. Season | 5 | 11 | 15 | 5 | 1 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 13 | 2 | 3 | 17 | 8 | Opp. Last 7 | 7 | 18 | 9 | 29 | 2 | |
Memphis
The Grizzlies are looking to bounce out of their recent funk with a win over the Wizards tonight. It’s going to be tough sledding though, as Mike Conley, Zach Randolph, Marc Gasol, and Tony Allen will all sit out tonight’s game. With those four players out, the entire starting lineup of the Grizzlies is in play tonight.
Opponent Breakdown (Washington)
Record: 36-28
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.5 (Rank: 10)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 6
Rebounding Differential Rank: 4
Elite Plays
All five starters deserve consideration tonight. Load up on the Grizzlies, as there is value galore.
Secondary Plays
None
Washington
The Wizards have lost seven of their last ten games and have fallen all the way down to the fifth-seed in the Eastern Conference standings. They may have caught a huge break tonight, as the Grizzlies have decided to rest their three best players. With Marc Gasol, Zach Randolph, and Mike Conley out, this game could easily turn into a blowout.
Opponent Breakdown (Memphis)
Record: 45-19
Points Allowed Per Game: 95.5 (Rank: 1)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 7
Rebounding Differential Rank: 14
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
John Wall (FD: $9000, DK: $8300 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 25.1)
Wall is a borderline elite play tonight on DraftKings. His price is at one of its lowest points of the season. He’s a decent secondary option on other sites, especially with Mike Conley out. Wall has played well at home this season, but the concern here is that the Wizards run away with tonight’s game.
Marcin Gortat (FD: $6700, DK: $6600 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 17.7)
Gortat has been on a tear over his last nine games, averaging 34 fantasy points per contest. He has seven double-doubles during that stretch and has a good chance for another one tonight. He sees a boost in terms of his matchup with Marc Gasol out, but his minutes may be limited if the Wizards get up big.
Cleveland at San Antonio – 8:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Even Spread, 207.5 Over/Under
- Cleveland Proj. Starters – Irving-Smith-James-Love-Mozgov
- San Antonio Proj. Starters – Parker-Green-Leonard-Duncan-Splitter
| Cleveland | San Antonio | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 206 |  | Vegas Total | 206 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 0.0 | Vegas Sprd | 0.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 103 | Team Proj. | 103 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 94.84 | Team Pace | 95.95 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Kyrie Irving | J.R. Smith | LeBron James | Kevin Love | Timofey Mozgov | Proj Starter | Tony Parker | Danny Green | Kawhi Leonard | Tim Duncan | Tiago Splitter | |
| Opp. Season | 13 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 18 | Opp. Season | 8 | 22 | 23 | 14 | 14 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 25 | 1 | 15 | 21 | 24 | Opp. Last 7 | 6 | 16 | 18 | 7 | 29 | |
Cleveland
The Cavaliers head to San Antonio in what should be the most entertaining game of the night. The Cavaliers have won seven of their last ten games and the Spurs are riding a six-game winning streak. This game has an even spread and a high total of 207 points. The Spurs are a tough matchup on paper, but this game is expected to have plenty of offense.
Opponent Breakdown (San Antonio)
Record: 40-23
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.4 (Rank: 8)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 5
Rebounding Differential Rank: 11
Elite Plays
LeBron James (FD: $10800, DK: $10600 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 33.3)
While LeBron is not facing his former team, this is still a revenge game of sorts. The Spurs made quick work of the Heat last year in the finals, which eventually led to LeBron packing his bags and heading to Cleveland. While he’s had mixed results against the Spurs throughout his career, he’s one player that can show up big when it matters. In my eyes, he is the premier play at any position tonight.
Secondary Plays
Kevin Love (FD: $8100, DK: $7600 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 21.7)
Love doesn’t get a lot of attention in daily fantasy circles, but he has played well recently, averaging 34.3 fantasy points per game over his last ten. Obviously, he needs around 40 to reach value, but he’s certainly capable of it against the Spurs. Tim Duncan is going to have a tough time defending him on the perimeter.
San Antonio
We’ve all been waiting for the Spurs to put it in gear and it appears that they finally have. They have won six games in a row and are now only two games out of the fourth-seed in the Western Conference standings. Tonight they host the red-hot Cavaliers in what could be a statement game for both teams. Gregg Popovich has a history of resting players in nationally-televised games, but the Spurs can’t afford to do that tonight. All starters should see their usual complement of minutes.
Opponent Breakdown (Cleveland)
Record: 41-25
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.4 (Rank: 11)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 21
Rebounding Differential Rank: 8
Elite Plays
Kawhi Leonard (FD: $8300, DK: $8100 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 22.6)
Leonard has a terrific track record against LeBron James. Don’t believe me? Just check out his game logs from the NBA Finals last season. Leonard is also playing his best basketball of the season, averaging 41 fantasy points per game over his last four. His price is up, but he’s been hot and he may see extended action tonight against the Cavaliers.
Tony Parker (FD: $6300, DK: $5900 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 24.9)
It only took six months, but Parker finally looks like a starting point guard again. After being awful in February, he has put together a terrific four-game stretch, averaging 38 fantasy points per contest. Now is the time to buy low on Parker, as his salary is only going to get more expensive.
Secondary Plays
Tim Duncan (FD: $7200, DK: $6500 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 23.5)
Duncan has only played more than 30 minutes twice in his last ten games, but I could see him eclipsing that mark tonight against the Cavaliers. Duncan’s price is depressed and we all know the type of upside that he can provide when given big minutes. He makes a terrific tournament play tonight.
Houston at Utah – 9:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Houston -1, 188.5 Over/Under
- Houston Proj. Starters – Beverley-Harden-Ariza-Jones-Motiejunas
- Utah Proj. Starters – Exum-Ingles-Hayward-Favors-Gobert
| Houston | Utah | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 188.5 |  | Vegas Total | 188.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -1.0 | Vegas Sprd | 1.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 94.8 | Team Proj. | 93.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 99.18 | Team Pace | 92.72 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Patrick Beverley | James Harden | Trevor Ariza | Terrence Jones | Donatas Motiejunas | Proj Starter | Dante Exum | Joe Ingles | Gordon Hayward | Derrick Favors | Rudy Gobert | |
| Opp. Season | 6 | 14 | 7 | 11 | 2 | Opp. Season | 2 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 20 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 13 | 15 | Opp. Last 7 | 10 | 20 | 24 | 24 | 30 | |
Houston
The Rockets fell short against the Blazers last night and now head to Utah for their second of back-to-back road games. The Rockets are only one-point favorites tonight against a Jazz team that has really improved on the defensive end of the floor. They have held their opponents to the second-fewest points per game this season. The Rockets are only projected to score 95 points tonight, which is eight points lower than their season average.
Opponent Breakdown (Utah)
Record: 27-36
Points Allowed Per Game: 95.8 (Rank: 2)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 17
Rebounding Differential Rank: 1
Elite Plays
James Harden (FD: $11300, DK: $10800 / MPG: 37 / Usage Rate: 30.9)
Harden had an off night in Portland, but he should be able to bounce back tonight against the Jazz. This should be a pace-down game for the Rockets, but Harden is still an elite play at shooting guard, especially given the fact that this game is expected to stay close. Harden is a tough fade on a night that has only five games on the schedule.
Secondary Plays
Trevor Ariza (FD: $5600, DK: $5700 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 16.7)
Ariza had three straight outings with less than 20 fantasy points, but he bounced back last night with a 30 fantasy point outing against the Blazers. He is a solid mid-range option at small forward if you can’t afford the likes of LeBron James or Kawhi Leonard. Ariza needs around 28 fantasy points to reach value, a mark that he has topped five times in his last eight games.
Corey Brewer (FD: $4300, DK: $4100 / MPG: 26 / Usage Rate: 20.5)
Brewer is an appealing tournament play tonight tonight against the Jazz. He is inconsistent, but he does provide a high ceiling for a player at his price point. He has scored at least 30 fantasy points in back to back games and has been seeing minutes in the upper 20’s consistently.
Utah
The Jazz have turned a corner since trading away Enes Kanter. They have won three games in a row and eight of their last ten. They are also getting love from Vegas, as they are only one-point underdogs tonight against the Rockets. This is an average matchup in terms of potential fantasy production, but the Rockets have really struggled to defend the paint without Dwight Howard in the lineup.
Opponent Breakdown (Houston)
Record: 43-21
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.8 (Rank: 15)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 3
Rebounding Differential Rank: 13
Elite Plays
Rudy Gobert (FD: $7700, DK: $7800 / MPG: 23 / Usage Rate: 13.6)
Gobert or go home. Rudy has been terrific since the Jazz traded Enes Kanter to the Thunder. Over his last nine games, he is averaging 10 points, 14 rebounds, 2 assists, and 3 blocks per game. He should be able to dominate the paint against a Rockets’ front-court that is missing Dwight Howard. The Rockets are ranked dead last against centers over the last seven days.
Derrick Favors (FD: $7900, DK: $7800 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 23.1)
Favors has also flourished since the Enes Kanter trade. He has managed to stay out of foul trouble and he has now scored at least 35 fantasy points in seven of his last ten games, averaging 36 fantasy points per contest. He should also find success against the Rockets, who continue to get dominated in the paint.
Secondary Plays
None
New York at L.A. Lakers – 10:30 PM
- Vegas Line – L.A. Lakers -7.5, 191.5 Over/Under
- New York Proj. Starters – Galloway-Shved-Thomas-Amundson-Bargnani
- L.A. Lakers Proj. Starters – Clarkson-Ellington-Johnson-Hill-Black
| New York | L.A. Lakers | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 191.5 |  | Vegas Total | 191.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 7.5 | Vegas Sprd | -7.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 92.0 | Team Proj. | 99.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 93.27 | Team Pace | 96.68 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Langston Galloway | Alexey Shved | Lance Thomas | Louis Amundson | Andrea Bargnani | Proj Starter | Jordan Clarkson | Wayne Ellington | Wesley Johnson | Jordan Hill | Tarik Black | |
| Opp. Season | 30 | 21 | 19 | 13 | 27 | Opp. Season | 20 | 24 | 3 | 7 | 23 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 2 | 22 | 20 | 18 | 22 | Opp. Last 7 | 8 | 21 | 11 | 27 | 7 | |
New York
The Knicks are the worst team in the NBA. They have been awful recently, losing their last five games huge margins. The good news is that they are only 7.5-point underdogs tonight against the Lakers. If the Knicks can keep this game close, this may be a fantasy goldmine. These are two of the worst defensive teams in the NBA. The Lakers are ranked 28th in defensive efficiency and 29th in points allowed per game this season.
Opponent Breakdown (L.A. Lakers)
Record: 17-46
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.3 (Rank: 29)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 28
Rebounding Differential Rank: 18
Elite Plays
Andrea Bargnani (FD: $5500, DK: $5800 / MPG: 24 / Usage Rate: 24.7)
The biggest concern with Bargnani recently has been his limited playing time. It’s not that he hasn’t played well, it’s that the Knicks haven’t been able to stay competitive. Hopefully that’s not the case tonight, as Bargnani draws a fantastic matchup against the Lakers. Bargnani has scored at least 24 fantasy points in five of his last eight games and should be able to reach that mark again tonight.
Alexey Shved (FD: $5600, DK: $5000 / MPG: 15 / Usage Rate: 25.6)
Shved is coming off of a huge game against the Jazz in which he had 21 points, 10 rebounds, and 7 assists. He should draw another start at shooting guard tonight, even if Tim Hardaway Jr. suits up. Shved’s price has come up, but he’s been very productive recently, averaging 27 fantasy points per game over his last seven.
Secondary Plays
Cole Aldrich (FD: $4200, DK: $3600 / MPG: 16 / Usage Rate: 17.6)
Aldrich is a decent tournament option tonight. He’s still risky for cash, as his minutes and production are inconsistent, but he’s been playing well off the bench. He has scored at least 23 fantasy points in three of his last five games and provides good upside at his price point.
L.A. Lakers
The Lakers only have five more wins than the Knicks this season, but they have been playing much better than New York has recently. The Lakers are 7.5-point favorites tonight against a team that is ranked 22nd in points allowed per game and 28th in rebounding differential. As strange as it is to say, there are actually quite a few Lakers that are in play tonight.
Opponent Breakdown (New York)
Record: 12-51
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.1 (Rank: 22)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 29
Rebounding Differential Rank: 28
Elite Plays
Jordan Hill (FD: $5800, DK: $5400 / MPG: 28 / Usage Rate: 22.1)
Hill is one of those players that always seems to be a bust in games where he should play well. Tonight is a night where he deserves consideration though. The Knicks are one of the worst rebounding teams in the NBA and Hill has averaged 24 fantasy points per game over his last eight.
Secondary Plays
Jordan Clarkson (FD: $5800, DK: $5400 / MPG: 21 / Usage Rate: 22.2)
Clarkson has played well over his last eight games, averaging 27 fantasy points in 32 minutes per contest. He draws a favorable matchup against the Knicks, who are ranked 20th against point guards this season. He may get overlooked now that there are so many value plays on the Grizzlies.
Wayne Ellington (FD: $5400, DK: $5000 / MPG: 25 / Usage Rate: 17.9)
Ellington may not put up huge fantasy point outings, but he has played at least 34 minutes in each of his last eight games. It’s hard to a player at his price point that sees that type of minutes on a nightly basis. Ellington offers a high floor tonight against the Knicks, who are ranked 24th against shooting guards this season.