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NBA Grind Down: Thursday, March 19th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2015-03-22 22:01:00

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!

Note: Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NBA Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review.

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Minnesota at New York – 7:30 PM

Minnesota New York
minnesotanba Vegas Total 197 newyorknba Vegas Total 197
Vegas Sprd 1.0 Vegas Sprd -1.0
Team Proj. 97.5 Team Proj. 98.5
Team Pace 97.49 Team Pace 93.39
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Ricky Rubio Kevin Martin Andrew Wiggins Adreian Payne Gorgui Dieng Proj Starter Langston Galloway Alexey Shved Lance Thomas Louis Amundson Andrea Bargnani
Opp. Season 21 22 3 7 24 Opp. Season 29 26 29 25 27
Opp. Last 7 30 20 11 17 14 Opp. Last 7 29 21 29 19 25

Minnesota

Nikola Pekovic, Kevin Garnett, and Gary Neal are all highly questionable for tonight’s game against the Knicks. It wouldn’t surprise anyone to see them sit out another game. If that’s the case, Gorgui Dieng, Justin Hamilton, and Adreian Payne will continue to see extended action. The Wolves draw a favorable matchup against a Knicks’ defense that is ranked 22nd in points allowed per game and 27th in rebounding differential this season.

Editor’s Note: Pekovic, Garnett and Neal are out, as expected. Ricky Rubio and Justin Hamilton are out, as well.

Opponent Breakdown (New York)
Record: 14-53
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.3 (Rank: 22)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 29
Rebounding Differential Rank: 27

Elite Plays

Gorgui Dieng (FD: $6400, DK: $5900 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 15)

Dieng has played at least 38 minutes in three of his last four games. He has averaged 30 fantasy points per game during that stretch. While he still has a limited role in the offense, Dieng should have another productive game tonight against the Knicks, who are one of the worst rebounding teams in the NBA.

Secondary Plays

Andrew Wiggins (FD: $6100, DK: $6400 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 21.8)

Wiggins has hit the rookie wall, averaging only 19 fantasy points in his last six games. Having Ricky Rubio back in the lineup should help him get some easier shots tonight against the Knicks. Wiggins only played 32 minutes last night, but he was in foul trouble in the first half. He should go back to playing close to 40 minutes tonight.

Adreian Payne (FD: $4300, DK: $4100 / MPG: 18 / Usage Rate: 17.5)

Justin Hamilton was a late scratch last night. While I expect him to be back in the lineup tonight, there is the possibility that he sits tonight’s game out as well. If that’s the case, Payne will see all of the run that he can handle. He also draws a favorable matchup against a soft Knicks’ defense.

New York

The Knicks have won three of their last ten games. While it may not sound like much, it’s an improvement at least. They have a good chance to pick up another win tonight against the short-handed Wolves. This is one of the best matchups on the board, as the Wolves are ranked dead last in points allowed per game this season. The Knicks’ team total is set at 98.5 points, which is six points higher than their season average.

Opponent Breakdown (Minnesota)
Record: 14-53
Points Allowed Per Game: 106 (Rank: 30)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 30
Rebounding Differential Rank: 21

Elite Plays

Alexey Shved (FD: $7000, DK: $6600 / MPG: 15 / Usage Rate: 25.6)

Shvedsanity! Alexey has been on fire over his last five games, averaging 37 fantasy points in 33 minutes per contest. He has an extremely high usage rate (25.6) and he is the Knicks best playmaker. His price has come up across the industry, but he’s still an elite play given the matchup. The Wolves are ranked 29th against point guards and 26th against shooting guards this season.

Secondary Plays

Andrea Bargnani (FD: $5900, DK: $6100 / MPG: 24 / Usage Rate: 24.7)

Bargnani’s price continues to slowly creep up, but he still only needs 30 fantasy points to meet value expectations. He is certainly capable of that tonight against a Wolves’ defense that is ranked 27th against centers this season. Bargnani is coming off of one of his best outings of the season, scoring 36 fantasy points against the Spurs.

Denver at Houston – 8:00 PM

Denver Houston
denvernba Vegas Total 213 houstonnba Vegas Total 213
Vegas Sprd 8.0 Vegas Sprd -8.0
Team Proj. 102.5 Team Proj. 110.5
Team Pace 98.38 Team Pace 99.08
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Ty Lawson Wilson Chandler Danilo Gallinari Kenneth Faried Jusuf Nurkic Proj Starter Patrick Beverley James Harden Trevor Ariza Terrence Jones Donatas Motiejunas
Opp. Season 2 23 23 24 20 Opp. Season 12 28 28 30 23
Opp. Last 7 3 28 20 26 27 Opp. Last 7 2 13 21 24 19

Denver

The Nuggets continue to play well under interim head coach Melvin Hunt. They have won six of their last ten games. Tonight they head to Houston to take on the Rockets in a game that has the highest total on the board. In fact, the total of 213 points is 16 points higher than the next highest total tonight. The Rockets are not a team that we need to avoid taking players against, as they are right around the league average in points allowed per game and rebounding differential.

Opponent Breakdown (Houston)
Record: 45-22
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.8 (Rank: 16)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 3
Rebounding Differential Rank: 14

Elite Plays

Kenneth Faried (FD: $6900, DK: $6900 / MPG: 27 / Usage Rate: 19.2)

Faried didn’t play Sunday night, as the Nuggets opted to give him a night off. He should be well rested and ready to go for tonight’s contest against the Rockets. Faried has really played well recently, averaging 35.5 fantasy points per game over his last eight. He should be able to dominate a Rockets’ frontcourt that is missing their best rebounder and shot blocker.

Danilo Gallinari (FD: $6400, DK: $6000 / MPG: 22 / Usage Rate: 21.1)

Gallinari also got the night off on Sunday, so he should also come into tonight’s game with fresh legs. He has really stepped up his play over the last few weeks, averaging 28 fantasy points per game in his last nine. He also draws a favorable matchup against the Rockets, who are ranked 23rd against small forwards this season.

Secondary Plays

Ty Lawson (FD: $7500, DK: $6600 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 20.6)

Lawson’s price is depressed and the point guard position is surprisingly thin tonight. Alexey Shved is the better play in my eyes, but Lawson is worth a look at this price, especially on DraftKings ($6,600). Lawson does draw a tough matchup against Patrick Beverley though, which is why he is listed as a secondary option for tonight.

Houston

The Rockets are looking for their third win in a row tonight, as they host the Denver Nuggets. This is one of the best matchups in all of daily fantasy basketball, as the Nuggets play at a fast pace and allow their opponents to score an average 103.6 points per game. The Rockets are projected to score 110.5 points tonight, which is by far the highest team total on the board.

Opponent Breakdown (Denver)
Record: 26-42
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.6 (Rank: 26)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 23
Rebounding Differential Rank: 16

Elite Plays

James Harden (FD: $10600, DK: $10800 / MPG: 37 / Usage Rate: 30.9)

Harden has not looked like himself in the past few games. It may just be fatigue, as he is responsible for such a large portion of the Rockets’ production. Harden’s price has come down a bit though and he draws a fantastic matchup against the Nuggets. It could be a great night to buy low on Harden and his percentage of ownership may be a little lower than it should be.

Terrence Jones (FD: $6700, DK: $6800 / MPG: 28 / Usage Rate: 19.2)

Jones was benched on Tuesday night so that the Rockets could match up with the size of the Magic. Jones was one of the bigger disappointments of the night, as he could only muster up 13 fantasy points in 30 minutes. He should be back in the good graces of DFS players after tonight’s game though. He should bounce back in a big way against a Nuggets defense that is ranked dead last against power forwards this season.

Trevor Ariza (FD: $5800, DK: $6200 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 16.7)

Ariza has scored at least 30 fantasy points in four of his last five games. He typically has a terrible outing every now and then, which keeps his price at a very playable level on both FanDuel and DraftKings. He’s one of the top options at small forward on a night with very few options at the position.

Secondary Plays

None

New Orleans at Phoenix – 10:00 PM

New Orleans Phoenix
neworleansnba Vegas Total 198.5 phoenixnba Vegas Total 198.5
Vegas Sprd -1.5 Vegas Sprd 1.5
Team Proj. 100.0 Team Proj. 98.5
Team Pace 93.99 Team Pace 99.13
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Tyreke Evans Eric Gordon Quincy Pondexter Anthony Davis Omer Asik Proj Starter Eric Bledsoe P.J. Tucker Marcus Morris Markieff Morris Brandan Wright
Opp. Season 18 20 25 9 19 Opp. Season 17 18 10 6 11
Opp. Last 7 8 16 12 7 5 Opp. Last 7 5 27 4 2 28

New Orleans

The Pelicans are currently a half-game behind the Thunder for the eighth and final spot in the Western Conference. Their opponent, the Suns, are currently two and a half games behind the Pelicans. This is a huge game for both teams and we should see a terrific basketball game. The Pelicans are 1.5-point favorites tonight and they find themselves in a fantasy-friendly matchup. The Suns are ranked 27th in points allowed per game and 24th in rebounding differential this season.

Opponent Breakdown (Phoenix)
Record: 35-33
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.2 (Rank: 27)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 18
Rebounding Differential Rank: 24

Elite Plays

Anthony Davis (FD: $12400, DK: $11500 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 27.3)

Davis is dealing with an eye injury, but with his recent level of production, he is seeing clearly. Over his last seven games, he is averaging 58 fantasy points in 41 minutes per contest. The Pelicans are in must-win mode and Davis should see 40+ minutes tonight against the Suns. He is the premier play tonight and should be targeted in all league formats.

Editor’s Note: Davis rolled his ankle this morning in shootaround and is listed as questionable for tonight’s game.

Secondary Plays

Tyreke Evans (FD: $8300, DK: $7600 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 25.9)

Evans has quietly played well over the last couple of weeks. Over his last eight games, he is averaging 35 fantasy points per contest. He draws a favorable matchup against the Suns, who are ranked 18th in fantasy points allowed to point guards this season. His price on FanDuel is a little high, but his $7,600 price tag on DraftKings is appealing.

Phoenix

The Suns are also in must-win mode. They can’t afford to lose tonight if they want to have any chance of sneaking into the playoffs. Alex Len and Brandon Knight have both been ruled out for tonight’s game, which means Brandan Wright and Marcus Morris will continue to log heavy minutes. Overall, this isn’t a great matchup, but the injuries do open up a few viable options tonight against the Pelicans.

Opponent Breakdown (New Orleans)
Record: 37-30
Points Allowed Per Game: 99 (Rank: 13)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 25
Rebounding Differential Rank: 5

Elite Plays

Eric Bledsoe (FD: $8500, DK: $8200 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 23.5)

With Brandon Knight out, Bledsoe will have the ball-handling duties all to himself tonight against the Pelicans. Bledsoe is coming off of a 49 fantasy point outing against the Knicks and should be in for another productive outing tonight. The Pelicans have been been mediocre against point guards this season, allowing the 14th-most fantasy points to the position.

Brandan Wright (FD: $5200, DK: $4200 / MPG: 17 / Usage Rate: 13.7)

With Alex Len out, Wright should draw another start at center. He certainly earned it, after scoring 18 points and grabbing 11 rebounds against the Knicks the other night. Dollar for dollar, Wright is my favorite play at center tonight. That’s saying a lot, as we all know how much I love Rudy Gobert.

Secondary Plays

Marcus Morris (FD: $5200, DK: $5100 / MPG: 23 / Usage Rate: 19.4)

Morris will draw another start at small forward tonight and he once again is one of the better value plays on the board. Over his last three games, he has averaged 27 fantasy points in 35 minutes per contest. We can expect a similar output from him tonight against the Pelicans.

Utah at L.A. Lakers – 10:30 PM

Utah L.A. Lakers
utahnba Vegas Total 182.5 lalakersnba Vegas Total 182.5
Vegas Sprd -3.5 Vegas Sprd 3.5
Team Proj. 93.0 Team Proj. 89.5
Team Pace 92.55 Team Pace 96.71
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Dante Exum Rodney Hood Gordon Hayward Derrick Favors Rudy Gobert Proj Starter Jordan Clarkson Wayne Ellington Wesley Johnson Jordan Hill Tarik Black
Opp. Season 30 21 22 13 26 Opp. Season 5 12 5 10 1
Opp. Last 7 19 23 27 9 10 Opp. Last 7 1 8 3 15 1

Utah

The Jazz are playing in the second half of a back-to-back tonight, but they are a very young team and should show no signs of fatigue. They draw a terrific matchup tonight against the Lakers, who are ranked 28th in points allowed per game this season. The Jazz are only projected to score 93 points tonight, but there will be plenty of scoring opportunities in this game.

Opponent Breakdown (L.A. Lakers)
Record: 17-49
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.1 (Rank: 28)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 28
Rebounding Differential Rank: 15

Elite Plays

Rudy Gobert (FD: $8200, DK: $8100 / MPG: 23 / Usage Rate: 13.6)

I have to say this every time, I just have to: GOBERT OR GO HOME! Gobert has been on a tear recently, averaging 39 fantasy points in 35 minutes over his last nine games. There is no reason to think his production is going to come to a halt tonight against the Lakers. Gobert is the premier option at center tonight and I highly recommend using both Gobert and Brandan Wright on sites that allow for two centers.

Gordon Hayward (FD: $7600, DK: $7500 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 25.9)

Hayward has a subpar outing every now and then, but he has topped 36 fantasy points in four of his last six games. He draws a tremendous matchup against the Lakers, who have allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to opposing small forwards this season. The best part about Hayward is that he fills up one of our dreaded small forward roster spots.

Secondary Plays

Rodney Hood (FD: $4600, DK: $4600 / MPG: 18 / Usage Rate: 17.7)

Hood only put up 15 fantasy points against the Wizards last night and if I know DFS players as well as I think I do, his ownership level will be lower than it should be tonight. He’s still affordably priced, his minutes are trending upward, and he draws a favorable matchup against the Lakers.

L.A. Lakers

Even though there are only four games on the schedule tonight, there are plenty of fantasy options available. There is no reason to target the Lakers tonight against the best defensive team in the NBA. The Lakers are only projected to score 89 points in this game, which is ten points lower than their season average.

Opponent Breakdown (Utah)
Record: 30-37
Points Allowed Per Game: 95 (Rank: 1)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 15
Rebounding Differential Rank: 1

Elite Plays

None

Secondary Plays

None

About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious