NBA Grind Down: Thursday, March 5th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!
Note: Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review.
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Oklahoma City at Chicago – 8:00 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Oklahoma City -2, 199.5 Over/Under
- Oklahoma City Proj. Starters – Westbrook-Roberson-Singler-Ibaka-Kanter
- Chicago Proj. Starters – Brooks-Snell-Dunleavy-Gasol-Noah
| Oklahoma City | Chicago | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 199.5 |  | Vegas Total | 199.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -2.0 | Vegas Sprd | -2.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 100.8 | Team Proj. | 98.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 97.70 | Team Pace | 95.50 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Russell Westbrook | Andre Roberson | Kyle Singler | Serge Ibaka | Enes Kanter | Proj Starter | Aaron Brooks | Tony Snell | Mike Dunleavy | Pau Gasol | Joakim Noah | |
| Opp. Season | 18 | 3 | 18 | 18 | 12 | Opp. Season | 29 | 7 | 15 | 24 | 4 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 28 | 17 | 9 | 1 | 12 | Opp. Last 7 | 26 | 13 | 11 | 28 | 7 | |
Oklahoma City
The Oklahoma City Westbrook’s head to Chicago to take on the Bulls, after fighting off the Sixers in overtime last night. Russell Westbrook posted his fourth-straight triple-double with a filthy stat line of 49 points, 16 rebounds, and 10 assists. He joined rare air, as he become the first player since Michael Jordan to accomplish such a feat. The Westbrook’s are 2-point favorites tonight against the Bulls, in a game that features a total of 199.5 points. The Bulls will be without three of their best defenders in Jimmy Butler, Derrick Rose, and Taj Gibson.
Opponent Breakdown (Chicago)
Record: 38-23
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.4 (Rank: 11)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 12
Rebounding Differential Rank: 5
Elite Plays
Russell Westbrook (FD: $12000, DK: $11300 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 36.9)
In his last three games, Westbrook has scored 74, 68, and 87 fantasy points. He has averaged 61 fantasy points per contest over his last eight games. Is he really a player that you want to fade on a night with a two-game slate? I certainly don’t think so, if you fade Westbrook in cash games, you will likely be fading the “cash” as well. He is playing at a level that we haven’t seen anyone play at in a very long time. Aaron Brooks isn’t the answer to slowing him down.
Secondary Plays
Serge Ibaka (FD: $8200, DK: $8000 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 19.1)
Ibaka would be an elite play tonight, if it weren’t for his expensive price tag. He’s at least $8,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings, which means he needs to score 40 fantasy points to meet value expectations. That’s a tall task for a matchup against the Bulls’ pesky frontcourt combination of Pau Gasol and Joakim Noah.
Enes Kanter (FD: $6000, DK: $5900 / MPG: 27 / Usage Rate: 24.7)
Kanter only played 21 minutes last night against the Sixers. While most gamers will be alarmed, I’ll take the cup half-full approach and say that he’ll have fresh legs for tonight’s game against the Bulls. The Thunder aren’t going to be able to play small ball while Pau Gasol and Joakim Noah are both on the court. Look for Kanter to see around 30 minutes tonight.
Dion Waiters (FD: $4400, DK: $4100 / MPG: 26 / Usage Rate: 23)
Granted it was against the Sixers, but it had to have felt good to see a few of his shots drop last night. He finished the game with 20 points, 10 rebounds, and 3 assists. Maybe that game can break him out of his shooting slump. Waiters is a serviceable value play at shooting guard tonight against the Bulls.
Chicago
The Bulls will be without Jimmy Butler, Derrick Rose, and Taj Gibson tonight against the Thunder. It will be all hands on deck for Chicago, as the rest of the team is going to have to make up for a ton of lost production. Not only will the Bulls’ players see an uptick in minutes and/or usage, but they draw a terrific matchup against the Thunder, who have been the fastest-paced team in the NBA over the last three weeks. There are six viable fantasy options on the Bulls tonight. With only two games on the slate, don’t be afraid to use 3-4 Bulls in a single lineup.
Opponent Breakdown (Oklahoma City)
Record: 34-27
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.4 (Rank: 14)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 11
Rebounding Differential Rank: 2
Elite Plays
Pau Gasol (FD: $9400, DK: $9400 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 23.7)
Gasol is coming off of a mediocre performance against the Wizards, but he’s always struggled against their physical frontcourt. He draws a better matchup tonight against Serge Ibaka and the Thunder, who have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing power forwards. Gasol’s usage in the offense is only going to increase with all of the Bulls’ injuries to key players.
Joakim Noah (FD: $7400, DK: $7400 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 14)
With Derrick Rose and Jimmy Butler out, the Bulls’ offense will start to run though Noah more, much like it did last season. In his first game without those two in the lineup, Noah had 14 points, 12 rebounds, and 5 assists. He will likely flirt with a couple of triple-doubles here in the near future and his price won’t stay this cheap for much longer.
Nikola Mirotic (FD: $4700, DK: $5700 / MPG: 17 / Usage Rate: 20.3)
Mirotic has played well in his last two games, scoring 40 and 33 fantasy points. He is seeing a major uptick in minutes with all of the injuries and he should push for 30+ minutes tonight against the Thunder. He’s an elite play on FanDuel at a price of $4,700 and a borderline elite play on DraftKings at a price of $5,700.
Aaron Brooks (FD: $4800, DK: $5400 / MPG: 20 / Usage Rate: 25.6)
It’s hard to argue against targeting both Russell Westbrook and Aaron Brooks at point guard tonight. Brooks is coming off of a terrific outing against the Wizards, scoring 36 fantasy points in 35 minutes. He’s not going to rack up a ton of assists, but he’s an excellent scorer. He’s close to a must-start tonight against the Thunder.
Secondary Plays
Tony Snell (FD: $3800, DK: $4000 / MPG: 17 / Usage Rate: 14.1)
With all of the expensive options tonight, you are going to have to save some salary somewhere. Snell may be the answer, as he’ll likely see 35+ minutes of action in a fast-paced game against the Thunder. He needs roughly 20 fantasy points to meet value expectations, which he should reach with ease.
Mike Dunleavy (FD: $3900, DK: $3600 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 13.6)
Dunleavy will likely fly under the radar tonight with all of the other options on Chicago, but he’s a terrific value play at his price point. He has played at least 30 minutes in each of his last three games, averaging 21 fantasy points per contest.
Dallas at Portland – 10:30 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Portland -2.5, 198.5 Over/Under
- Dallas Proj. Starters – Rondo-Ellis-Jefferson-Nowitzki-Chandler
- Portland Proj. Starters – Lillard-Matthews-Batum-Aldridge-Lopez
| Dallas | Portland | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 198.5 |  | Vegas Total | 198.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 2.5 | Vegas Sprd | -2.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 98.0 | Team Proj. | 100.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.57 | Team Pace | 96.57 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Rajon Rondo | Monta Ellis | Richard Jefferson | Dirk Nowitzki | Tyson Chandler | Proj Starter | Damian Lillard | Wesley Matthews | Nicolas Batum | LaMarcus Aldridge | Robin Lopez | |
| Opp. Season | 25 | 19 | 12 | 1 | 6 | Opp. Season | 23 | 9 | 13 | 10 | 13 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 30 | 9 | 5 | 7 | 2 | Opp. Last 7 | 10 | 19 | 8 | 15 | 5 | |
Dallas
The Mavericks are expected to have Tyson Chandler back in the lineup tonight, but Chandler Parsons will not play. Richard Jefferson and Al-Farouq Aminu will continue to split the minutes at small forward. The Mavericks draw a tough matchup against the Blazers, who are ranked ninth in points allowed per game and 11th in rebounding differential this season. The Mavericks are only projected to score 99.5 points tonight, which is six points lower than their season average.
Opponent Breakdown (Portland)
Record: 40-19
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.4 (Rank: 9)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 4
Rebounding Differential Rank: 11
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Dirk Nowitzki (FD: $6300, DK: $6200 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 25.6)
Even on a two-game slate, I don’t have any of the Mavericks’ players listed as elite plays. They are a well-balanced team that draws a tough matchup against a defensive-minded Blazers’ team. Nowitzki has scored at least 29 fantasy points in three of his last four games, but I’m not a fan of his matchup against LaMarcus Aldridge. The Blazers are ranked number one against power forwards this season.
Monta Ellis (FD: $6700, DK: $6800 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 27.8)
Ellis is the one Mavericks player that you can rely on to play 35 minutes per game, but his production has been down recently. Over his last eight games, he is only averaging 26 fantasy points per contest. During that stretch, he has only topped 30 fantasy points twice. He’s a secondary option tonight against the Blazers.
Al-Farouq Aminu (FD: $4600, DK: $4600 / MPG: 17 / Usage Rate: 15.6)
Aminu has been a boom or bust fantasy option recently. Over his last four games, he has scored 25, 4, 33, and 14 fantasy points. He does see a boost with Chandler Parsons out though and his price is still affordable across the industry. Target Aminu as a tournament play tonight.
Richard Jefferson (FD: $3600, DK: $3300 / MPG: 16 / Usage Rate: 15.4)
Jefferson should draw another start at small forward tonight. He hasn’t been great as a starter, but he has scored at least 23 fantasy points in two of his last five games. He is close to minimum salary on both FanDuel and DraftKings and he has an outside chance of hitting that 20 point mark tonight.
Portland
The Blazers picked up an impressive come from behind victory over the Clippers last night in overtime. They have won four games in a row and are now sitting in the three seed in the Western Conference. Tonight they host the Mavericks, who have really slowed their pace of play recently. Over the last three weeks, the Mavericks have played at the sixth-slowest pace in the NBA. This is a decent matchup for the Blazers, but it may not be a bad idea to load up on players from the Thunder/Bulls game.
Opponent Breakdown (Dallas)
Record: 40-22
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.5 (Rank: 20)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 14
Rebounding Differential Rank: 29
Elite Plays
LaMarcus Aldridge (FD: $9800, DK: $9100 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 29.9)
Aldridge is a strong play tonight at power forward, but it’s going to be tough to fit him and Pau Gasol in the same lineup. Of the two, I have Gasol ranked slightly ahead of Aldridge, but the difference is minimal. Aldridge has averaged 47 fantasy points per game over his last three and will be a tough cover for Dirk Nowitzki.
Nicolas Batum (FD: $5600, DK: $5500 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 14.5)
Batum had a huge fourth quarter and overtime last night against the Clippers. He finished the game with 45 fantasy points. With the limited options at small forward, Batum is an elite play tonight. He has great upside at his price point and he has had good splits at home throughout his career.
Secondary Plays
Damian Lillard (FD: $8700, DK: $8100 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 26.6)
Lillard couldn’t buy a bucket last night against the Clippers, but he’ll he draws a much better matchup tonight against the Mavericks, who have allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing point guards. Lillard makes a terrific tournament play, as most people will gravitate toward Russell Westbrook and Aaron Brooks at point guard.
Robin Lopez (FD: $5000, DK: $3800 / MPG: 28 / Usage Rate: 16.1)
Lopez is a DraftKings-specific play tonight. The Blazers will likely be forced to play big against the Mavericks, which means Lopez should see around 30 minutes of action tonight. He only needs to score 18 fantasy points to reach value, a feat that he has accomplished six times in his last ten games.