NBA Grind Down: Thursday, May 14th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!
Note: Fantasy point averages listed use FanDuel scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NBA scoring system, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel review.
Subscribe to our daily newsletter and lineup alerts for the most up-to-date DFS NBA news.
Cleveland at Chicago – 8:00 PM ET
- Vegas Line – Chicago -2, 192.5 Over/Under
- Cleveland Proj. Starters – Irving-Shumpert-James-Thompson-Mozgov
- Chicago Proj. Starters – Rose-Butler-Dunleavy-Gasol-Noah
| Cleveland | Chicago | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 192 |  | Vegas Total | 192 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 2.0 | Vegas Sprd | -2.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 95.3 | Team Proj. | 97.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 93.88 | Team Pace | 94.18 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Kyrie Irving | Iman Shumpert | LeBron James | Tristan Thompson | Timofey Mozgov | Proj Starter | Derrick Rose | Jimmy Butler | Mike Dunleavy | Pau Gasol | Joakim Noah | |
| Opp. Season | 22 | 2 | 29 | 7 | 7 | Opp. Season | 10 | 21 | 20 | 9 | 11 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 2 | Opp. Last 7 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |
Cleveland
The Cavaliers are one win away from their first Eastern Conference Championship appearance since LeBron James first left Cleveland. They are a team that has been hobbled throughout the playoffs, but they have found ways to win. They are listed as 2-point underdogs tonight in Chicago for Game 6. The Cavaliers are not in a must-win situation, but LeBron James knows how important it is to close out teams when you have the chance.
Opponent Breakdown (Chicago)
Points Allowed Per Game: 98 (Rank: 10)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 11
Rebounding Differential Rank: 5
Elite Plays
LeBron James (FanDuel: $11700, DraftKings: $11400 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 32.5)
James may have played his best game of the season on Tuesday night, as he put the team on his back and carried them to a victory. James finished the game with 38 points, 12 rebounds, 7 assists, 3 blocks, and 3 steals. He has now scored at least 52 fantasy points in each of his last seven playoff games. With Chris Paul back for the Clippers, James has taken back the throne from Blake Griffin as the top overall play at any position.
Tristan Thompson (FD: $5400, DK: $5300 / MPG: 27 / Usage Rate: 13.9)
Thompson had a big second half in Game 5 in what may turn out to be the difference maker in this series. His fantasy production has been all over the map in the postseason, but he’s seeing extended action with at least 35 minutes of playing time in four of his last five games. Thompson is still affordable and he provides a high floor for cash games.
Iman Shumpert (FD: $4800, DK: $4600 / MPG: 25 / Usage Rate: 17.2)
Even though J.R. Smith is back in the lineup, Shumpert is still seeing the bulk of the shooting guard minutes. He has played 32 and 42 minutes in the last two games, scoring 14 and 32 fantasy points, respectively. He is still priced under $5,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings and he’s a much needed source of value on a night with very few salary cap relief options.
Secondary Plays
Timofey Mozgov (FD: $4800, DK: $5300 / MPG: 26 / Usage Rate: 16.1)
J.R. Smith (FD: $4800, DK: $5000 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 19.1)
Chicago
The Bulls have had every chance to take control of this series, but they just haven’t been able to do it. Their backs are now against the wall, as they face an elimination Game 6 at home. Pau Gasol is expected to return to the lineup, but he is expected to be on a minutes restriction. This really clouds the minute distribution of all four of the Bulls’ big men. The safest route may be to avoid that situation altogether tonight.
Opponent Breakdown (Cleveland)
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.5 (Rank: 12)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 20
Rebounding Differential Rank: 8
Elite Plays
Derrick Rose (FD: $8500, DK: $8700 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 30.9)
Rose has been tremendous in this series, averaging 42 fantasy points in 40 minutes per game. He is back to his old form and he has hit some huge shots throughout the series. He remains the top point guard option tonight, although it’s a close call between Rose and Chris Paul. Rose offers a high floor and he could push for 44+ minutes tonight in a win-or-stay-home Game 6.
Jimmy Butler (FD: $7900, DK: $8200 / MPG: 39 / Usage Rate: 21.7)
Butler is coming off of his second 45+ fantasy point outing of the series. His offensive numbers have taken a dip in this series, but that’s to be expected when you have to expend so much energy defending LeBron James on the other end of the floor. Butler is still very much in play tonight though, as his price has come down to a very playable level on both FanDuel and DraftKings. I wouldn’t be surprised if he played the entire game.
Mike Dunleavy (FD: $4500, DK: $5000 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 14.3)
Dunleavy has been very hit or miss in this series, but he offers great value at his price point. He needs 22.5 fantasy points to reach value on FanDuel and 25 fantasy points to reach value on DraftKings. He is more than capable of reaching value tonight, as he has scored at least 25 fantasy points in four of his last six games. Dunleavy may also benefit from a very tight rotation from coach Thibs.
Secondary Plays
Joakim Noah (FD: $5700, DK: $5900 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 13.7)
Houston at L.A. Clippers – 10:30 PM ET
- Vegas Line – L.A. Clippers -8, 219.5 Over/Under
- Houston Proj. Starters – Terry-Harden-Ariza-Smith-Howard
- L.A. Clippers Proj. Starters – Paul-Redick-Barnes-Griffin-Jordan
| Houston | L.A. Clippers | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 219 |  | Vegas Total | 219 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 8.0 | Vegas Sprd | -8.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 105.8 | Team Proj. | 113.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 104.62 | Team Pace | 99.83 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Jason Terry | James Harden | Trevor Ariza | Josh Smith | Dwight Howard | Proj Starter | Chris Paul | J.J. Redick | Matt Barnes | Blake Griffin | DeAndre Jordan | |
| Opp. Season | 2 | 18 | 27 | 18 | 14 | Opp. Season | 5 | 20 | 17 | 29 | 25 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | Opp. Last 7 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 8 | ||||||
Houston
The Rockets showed some grit in their Game 5 win at home, but they are still facing elimination tonight in Los Angeles. The Clippers have won both of their home games with ease and Vegas has the Rockets installed as 8-point underdogs for tonight’s Game 6. Given the must-win nature of tonight’s game, we can expect huge minutes from the likes of James Harden, Dwight Howard, and Trevor Ariza.
Opponent Breakdown (L.A. Clippers)
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.1 (Rank: 16)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 15
Rebounding Differential Rank: 16
Elite Plays
James Harden (FD: $9900, DK: $9600 / MPG: 37 / Usage Rate: 31.3)
Harden had his best game of the series in Game 5, finishing with his first career postseason triple-double. I didn’t think we would see a time when Harden would be priced under $10,000 in back-to-back games, but here we are. Of the superstars, Harden may be the best play on a points per dollar basis. The Rockets will do everything in their power to force a Game 7, even if that means 45 minutes from Harden.
Dwight Howard (FD: $9000, DK: $8500 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 23.3)
As long as Howard stays out of foul trouble, it’s hard to imagine him having a bad game. His one performance where he was held under 42 fantasy points was in Game 4 when he only played 18 minutes. Howard should see 40+ minutes of action tonight and he should have another monster fantasy outing. Even at his expensive price tag, he’s by far the safest play at center.
Trevor Ariza (FD: $6300, DK: $6200 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 16.8)
After a quiet series against the Mavericks, Ariza has shown up in a big way in this series. In the first five games of the series, he has averaged 32 fantasy points per game. During that stretch, he has scored at least 33 fantasy points on four separate occasions. His price is still reasonable on both FanDuel and DraftKings and he remains an elite play tonight at small forward.
Secondary Plays
Josh Smith (FD: $5800, DK: $5000 / MPG: 28 / Usage Rate: 24.2)
Jason Terry (FD: $3300, DK: $4200 / MPG: 21 / Usage Rate: 14.1)
L.A. Clippers
The Clippers didn’t put up much of a fight in Game 5, but with a 3-1 lead it was hard to see them come out and dominate the way that they did in Games 3 and 4. They have a great chance to close out the Rockets tonight at home. They are listed as 8-point favorites with their team total set at 106 points, which is easily the highest total on the board tonight.
Opponent Breakdown (Houston)
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.6 (Rank: 17)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 6
Rebounding Differential Rank: 15
Elite Plays
Blake Griffin (FD: $11400, DK: $10300 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 28.1)
Most people will see his game logs and think that Griffin’s production has taken a hit because of the presence of Chris Paul, but that’s not entirely true. Each of the last three games has been a blowout and he has only average 34 minutes per game during that stretch. Assuming tonight’s game is within striking distance, Griffin will see over 40 minutes of action. He remains an elite play in tonight’s close-out game at home.
Chris Paul (FD: $9500, DK: $8600 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 23.6)
Paul said that his hamstring is 100% healthy. That means that we get to target a fully-healthy Chris Paul at a steep discount. His production hasn’t been great over the last three games, but again, all three were over by the start of the fourth quarter. Paul could be the steal of the night at his price point. The best part is that a lot of people are going to overlook him thanks to his injury.
Secondary Plays
DeAndre Jordan (FD: $8300, DK: $7900 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 13.4)
J.J. Redick (FD: $5000, DK: $5000 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 20.5)
Matt Barnes (FD: $4500, DK: $4600 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 14.6)