Sign In $

You must be a member to view this Article.

NBA Grind Down: Tuesday, April 26th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-04-27 04:03:54

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

grind%20down%20article%20faq

Indiana Pacers at Toronto Raptors – 6:00 PM

Indiana Pacers Toronto Raptors
indiananba Vegas Total 193.0 torontonba Vegas Total 193.0
Vegas Sprd 7.0 Vegas Sprd -7.0
Team Proj. 93.0 Team Proj. 100.0
Team Pace 99.00 Team Pace 95.30
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter George Hill Monta Ellis Paul George Myles Turner Ian Mahinmi Proj. Starter Kyle Lowry DeMar DeRozan DeMarre Carroll Luis Scola Jonas Valanciunas
Opp. Season 2 13 7 6 7 Opp. Season 9 12 5 8 15
Last 3 Weeks 8 16 21 18 4 Last 3 Weeks 9 21 4 8 18

Indiana Pacers

Record: 45-37 — Road: 19-22 — Last 10: 7-3

The Pacers picked up a win in Game 4 to tie the series at two games a piece. They now head back to Toronto for a very important Game 5. The winner of tonight’s game will be in full control of this series. The Pacers are listed as 7-point underdogs with an implied team total of 93 points. While they do have the lowest team total on the board, there are only four teams in action tonight and there is little separation between the four in terms of expected production.

Elite Plays

Paul George
paul-george-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$9,300 Salary:$9,400
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:1.12 FP/Min:1.22
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 34.8 31.2 -3.6 27.6 -7.2
FPPG (FD) 39.1 37.0 -2.1 31.2 -7.9
TO-Adj. Usage 25.2 23.6 -1.6 23.0 -2.2

George has been all over the map in terms of fantasy production in this series. In the first four games, he has scored 55, 34, 46, and 28 fantasy points. Now that the series shifts back to Toronto, I expect him to be the focal point on offense. Small forward is actually a pretty stacked position tonight, but we have to spend up somewhere with the lack of superstars in this slate.

Secondary Plays

Monta Ellis
monta-ellis-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,700 Salary:$5,500
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.81 FP/Min:0.86
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 33.8 28.5 -5.3 26.8 -7.0
FPPG (FD) 27.2 24.7 -2.5 23.2 -4.1
TO-Adj. Usage 17.9 18.6 0.7 17.4 -0.4

Ellis struggled in both home games, but scored at least 29 fantasy points in the first two games in Toronto. He isn’t my favorite play in a points per dollar sense, but we have a lot of cap room to play with tonight given the lack of superstars in this two game slate. He should see minutes in the mid-30s tonight in Game 5.

Myles Turner
myles-turner-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,700 Salary:$5,200
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:0.90 FP/Min:0.95
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 22.8 21.1 -1.7 18.9 -3.9
FPPG (FD) 20.6 18.9 -1.7 19.9 -0.6
TO-Adj. Usage 17.2 16.5 -0.7 18.2 1.0

Turner didn’t have the best outing in his start in Game 4, but he still managed to post 19 fantasy points in 27 minutes of action. He is projected to start again tonight, which means he could see north of 30 minutes if he plays well. I slightly prefer Jonas Jerebko dollar for dollar, but Turner is an excellent GPP play tonight.

George Hill
george-hill-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$4,700 Salary:$4,400
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.68 FP/Min:0.73
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 34.1 29.3 -4.8 30.5 -3.6
FPPG (FD) 23.3 19.0 -4.2 23.3 0.0
TO-Adj. Usage 14.0 13.0 -1.0 13.7 -0.3

Hill finally broke out of his slump in Game 4, scoring 31 fantasy points in 31 minutes of action. He should see 30+ minutes again tonight and his price is still very cheap across the industry. The main problem with Hill is that we aren’t really in need of value tonight, as there aren’t any players priced above $9,400.

Toronto Raptors

Record: 56-26 — Home: 32-9 — Last 10: 7-3

The Raptors did exactly what they needed to do in Indiana – pick up a win to take back homecourt advantage. They can now advance to the second round if they can win two of the next three games. The Raptors are listed as 7-point favorites tonight with the second highest team total on the board at 100 points. Patrick Patterson and DeMarre Carroll would typically be in play in a larger slate, but we don’t need to punt either of those positions tonight.

Elite Plays

Kyle Lowry
kyle-lowry-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,200 Salary:$8,000
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:1.04 FP/Min:1.12
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 37.0 35.0 -2.0 30.8 -6.2
FPPG (FD) 38.5 29.0 -9.5 28.5 -10.1
TO-Adj. Usage 22.8 22.8 -0.1 23.0 0.1

Lowry has had two great games and two awful games so far in this series. It’s no surprise that the Raptors lost both of the games in which he struggled. He should see close to 40 minutes tonight in what is essentially a must-win game for Toronto. I have him ranked as my top point guard tonight, slightly ahead of Isaiah Thomas.

Jonas Valanciunas
jonas-valanciunas-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,500 Salary:$6,700
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:1.04 FP/Min:1.12
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 25.9 26.5 0.6 22.0 -3.9
FPPG (FD) 26.9 28.1 1.2 24.8 -2.1
TO-Adj. Usage 17.0 17.8 0.8 21.9 4.9

Valanciunas had two huge games in Toronto, but came crashing back down to Earth once the series shifted to Indiana. It wasn’t a huge surprise though, as he does have much better splits at home in his career. Dollar for dollar, I slightly prefer him over Al Horford tonight. Look for Valanciunas to play around 30 minutes against a beatable Pacers’ frontcourt.

Secondary Plays

DeMar DeRozan
demar-derozan-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,700 Salary:$6,800
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.98 FP/Min:1.01
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 35.9 33.5 -2.4 30.5 -5.4
FPPG (FD) 35.3 35.4 0.1 29.8 -5.5
TO-Adj. Usage 26.0 27.1 1.0 26.4 0.4

DeRozan is a very interesting play tonight. As I have mentioned over and over, there is a lot of extra cap space to go around tonight. DeRozan may not be the best play dollar for dollar, but he is the top overall play at shooting guard. He has been awful so far in this series, but if you have the funds, you might as well go up to DeRozan over the likes of Monta Ellis or Marcus Smart.

Boston Celtics at Atlanta Hawks – 8:30 PM

Boston Celtics Atlanta Hawks
bostonnba Vegas Total 198.0 atlantanba Vegas Total 198.0
Vegas Sprd 7.0 Vegas Sprd -7.0
Team Proj. 95.5 Team Proj. 102.5
Team Pace 101.10 Team Pace 99.40
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Isaiah Thomas Evan Turner Jae Crowder Jonas Jerebko Amir Johnson Proj. Starter Jeff Teague Kyle Korver Kent Bazemore Paul Millsap Al Horford
Opp. Season 8 19 14 12 22 Opp. Season 3 10 23 27 24
Last 3 Weeks 24 13 13 12 23 Last 3 Weeks 17 17 23 27 12

Boston Celtics

Record: 48-34 — Road: 20-21 — Last 10: 6-4

The Celtics picked up a huge win in overtime in Game 4 and now head back to Atlanta with the series tied at two games a piece. This has been arguably the most entertaining series in the first round and we should get another good game tonight. The Celtics are listed as 7-point underdogs with the third highest team total of the four teams in action tonight. Avery Bradley has already been ruled out of tonight’s contest, so expect another start for Evan Turner at shooting guard. Marcus Smart and Amir Johnson are both fine plays tonight, I’m just not sure that we need to look that cheap at either of their respective positions.

Elite Plays

Evan Turner
evan-turner-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,000 Salary:$6,600
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.84 FP/Min:0.91
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 28.0 31.9 3.9 29.1 1.1
FPPG (FD) 23.4 25.6 2.2 23.9 0.5
TO-Adj. Usage 16.2 16.6 0.4 17.9 1.7

Turner is close to a must play tonight on both sites and in all league formats. He has really been a difference maker in this series, averaging 32 fantasy points per game. He did play slightly better in the two games at home, but I’m not concerned about using him on the road. He should see minutes in the mid to upper-30s tonight.

Jae Crowder
jae-crowder-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,800 Salary:$6,000
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:0.83 FP/Min:0.89
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 31.6 29.3 -2.3 28.0 -3.6
FPPG (FD) 26.3 23.7 -2.6 18.7 -7.6
TO-Adj. Usage 16.1 17.6 1.5 15.7 -0.4

Crowder has yet to do much offensively, yet he has still scored at least 24 fantasy points in each of his last four games. His price seems a bit high for that type of production, but he could easily crack the 30 fantasy point mark if his shot starts to fall tonight.

Jonas Jerebko
jonas-jerebko-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$4,800 Salary:$4,000
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:0.70 FP/Min:0.79
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 15.1 18.1 3.0 18.7 3.6
FPPG (FD) 10.5 13.0 2.4 11.9 1.3
TO-Adj. Usage 11.3 10.3 -1.0 9.1 -2.2

Jerebko had a monster outing in Game 3 and then struggled in the first quarter of Game 4. I was worried that Brad Stevens would be quick to look elsewhere, but he stuck with Jerebko and it was the right call. He should see at least 30 minutes again tonight in Game 5 and I expect him to be the most popular player taken tonight. You can fade him in tournaments, but just lock him into your cash games.

Secondary Plays

Isaiah Thomas
isaiah-thomas-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,800 Salary:$8,600
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:1.08 FP/Min:1.17
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 32.2 30.3 -1.9 29.1 -3.1
FPPG (FD) 34.8 31.8 -3.0 32.5 -2.3
TO-Adj. Usage 26.3 28.2 1.9 27.1 0.7

Thomas is a borderline elite play tonight. We are basically deciding between Lowry, Thomas, and Teague. The only reason that I have him listed as a secondary play tonight is his price tag. I slightly prefer Lowry and Teague dollar for dollar. Thomas has 40 fantasy point upside, but he also has a low floor for a player priced in the high $8,000 range.

Atlanta Hawks

Record: 48-34 — Home: 27-14 — Last 10: 6-4

The Hawks were so close to grabbing a 3-1 series lead, but head back home with the series all tied up. They still have homecourt advantage though, as two of the next three games will be played in Atlanta. The Hawks are listed as 7-point favorites tonight with the highest team total on the board. Al Horford and Dennis Schroder are both on the injury report, but they are fully expected to play tonight in a very important Game 5. Kyle Korver is a nice punt play at shooting guard, but again, we don’t need to look that cheap tonight.

Elite Plays

Paul Millsap
paul-millsap-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,900 Salary:$8,700
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:1.15 FP/Min:1.23
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 32.7 33.7 1.0 34.7 2.0
FPPG (FD) 37.5 44.0 6.6 44.7 7.3
TO-Adj. Usage 19.9 19.4 -0.5 19.5 -0.4

Where has the Game 4 Millsap been all series? He was an absolute monster, scoring 45 actual points and 74 fantasy points. Do you know how great that performance was? In the first three games of the series, he scored a combined 76 fantasy points. I’m expecting somewhere in the 35-40 fantasy point range from Millsap tonight.

Jeff Teague
jeff-teague-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,100 Salary:$7,000
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.98 FP/Min:1.07
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 28.5 30.4 1.9 29.4 0.9
FPPG (FD) 28.0 33.3 5.3 30.2 2.2
TO-Adj. Usage 22.4 25.3 2.9 23.5 1.1

Teague had his worst game of the series in Game 4, but he hit some clutch three pointers and should feel good about his game heading back to Atlanta. Once again, I slightly prefer Teague over Thomas dollar for dollar. I also expect his ownership to be lower, which could help gain a major advantage on the field if he ends up outplaying him.

Kent Bazemore
kent-bazemore-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,700 Salary:$5,900
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:0.83 FP/Min:0.91
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 27.8 28.3 0.5 27.6 -0.2
FPPG (FD) 23.1 28.3 5.3 34.6 11.5
TO-Adj. Usage 16.1 16.9 0.8 20.5 4.4

Bazemore only scored five actual points in Game 4, but he still managed to score 22 fantasy points. He has a ton of upside thanks to his ability to rack up blocks and steals and he has been rebounding at a very high rate in this series. I slightly prefer him over Jae Crowder, but the two are very close and you can easily pair them together.

Secondary Plays

Al Horford
al-horford-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,000 Salary:$7,800
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:1.00 FP/Min:1.07
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 32.1 32.3 0.2 32.5 0.4
FPPG (FD) 32.3 32.3 0.0 34.1 1.8
TO-Adj. Usage 17.9 18.4 0.5 18.7 0.7

Horford is a borderline elite play tonight. At center, it basically comes down to two players – Horford or Valanciunas. The two are very close dollar for dollar, but Valanciunas isn’t dealing with an injury, so I will give him a slight edge. Horford has been a monster in this series though, scoring at least 36 fantasy points in three of the four games.

About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious