NBA Grind Down: Tuesday, April 28th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!
Note: Fantasy averages listed use FanDuel scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NBA scoring system, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel review.
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Dallas at Houston – 8:00 PM ET
- Vegas Line – Houston -7, 222 Over/Under
- Dallas Proj. Starters – Barea-Ellis-Aminu-Nowitzki-Chandler
- Houston Proj. Starters – Terry-Harden-Ariza-Jones-Howard
| Dallas | Houston | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 222 |  | Vegas Total | 222 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 7.0 | Vegas Sprd | -7.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 107.5 | Team Proj. | 114.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 103.07 | Team Pace | 103.07 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | J.J. Barea | Monta Ellis | Al-Farouq Aminu | Dirk Nowitzki | Tyson Chandler | Proj Starter | Jason Terry | James Harden | Trevor Ariza | Terrence Jones | Dwight Howard | |
| Opp. Season | 4 | 22 | 18 | 29 | 21 | Opp. Season | 15 | 18 | 26 | 18 | 20 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 9 | 15 | 8 | 12 | 7 | Opp. Last 7 | 2 | 14 | 11 | 8 | 16 | |
Dallas
The Mavericks avoided the sweep, but they are still down 3-1 as they head back to Houston for Game 5 of the series. The Mavericks are listed as 7-point underdogs tonight, but the total of the game is set at 222 points. In what is expected to be a high-scoring game, the Mavericks are the top offense to target tonight. Not only do they have a favorable matchup against the uptempo Rockets, but they are playing short-handed. All five starters should see extended action tonight in Game 5.
Opponent Breakdown (Houston)
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.6 (Rank: 17)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 6
Rebounding Differential Rank: 15
Elite Plays
Dirk Nowitzki (FanDuel: $6500, DraftKings: $7600 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 25.1)
With Rajon Rondo and Chandler Parsons out, I’ve been stacking the Mavericks and it’s a strategy that has paid off. Dallas is playing short-handed, which has opened the door for huge playing time for all of their starters. Nowitzki has been terrific in this series, averaging 36 fantasy points in 36 minutes per contest. He has scored at least 30 fantasy points in every game during the series and he could realistically play upwards of 40 minutes in a win or go home Game 5 against the Rockets.
Monta Ellis (FD: $6800, DK: $7800 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 27.8)
After being held in check in Game 1 of this series, Ellis has bounced back with 35, 55, and 40 fantasy points in his last three outings. He has played at least 38 minutes in each of those three games and should see a similar allotment of minutes tonight. His price has come up on both FanDuel and DraftKings, but he’s still very much in play in this short two-game slate.
Al-Farouq Aminu (FD: $5100, DK: $5600 / MPG: 18 / Usage Rate: 15.2)
Aminu FINALLY drew the start over Richard Jefferson at small forward in Game 4. He didn’t disappoint in his 38 minutes of action, scoring 16 points and grabbing 12 rebounds. He’s a player that can fill up all areas of the stat sheet and he is right there with J.J. Barea as the the top value play on the board. He should easily reach value in his extended action tonight.
J.J. Barea (FD: $4500, DK: $6100 / MPG: 18 / Usage Rate: 21.7)
Barea is still extremely cheap on FanDuel, but hopefully his $6,100 price tag will scare people off of him on DraftKings. The way I see it, I would pay up to $7,000 for Barea tonight in Game 5. He drew the start in Game 4 and finished with 38 fantasy points in 36 minutes per contest. He has always been a player to step up in big games and I fully expect a repeat performance from him tonight.
Secondary Plays
Tyson Chandler (FD: $6600, DK: $6800 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 12.7)
Houston
The Rockets accomplished their goal of getting a split in the two games in Dallas. They now have an opportunity to close the Mavericks out at home in Game 5. Vegas has the Rockets installed as 7-point favorites with their team total set at 114.5 points. Most teams tend to tighten their rotation during the playoffs, but we’ve actually seen decreased minutes for two of their starters in Jason Terry and Terrence Jones. Meanwhile, Corey Brewer and Josh Smith have both seen a small boost in minutes off the bench.
Opponent Breakdown (Dallas)
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.4 (Rank: 25)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 18
Rebounding Differential Rank: 30
Elite Plays
James Harden (FD: $10500, DK: $10400 / MPG: 37 / Usage Rate: 31.3)
Apologies to Chris Paul and Blake Griffin, but Harden is the top overall play tonight in this two-game slate. He has more upside than any other player and his team has a total that is seven points higher than the next highest team total. Harden has averaged 49.5 fantasy points per game in his last two and he should be fired up for an opportunity to get the Rockets out of the first round of the playoffs.
Dwight Howard (FD: $7600, DK: $8100 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 23.3)
Center is an extremely thin position tonight. Even at his elevated price point, Howard is an easy plug at center for cash games. He has averaged 43 fantasy points in 36 minutes per game in his last three contests. The Mavericks are the worst rebounding team remaining in the postseason and they have had no answer for Howard on the glass.
Secondary Plays
Josh Smith (FD: $7000, DK: $6400 / MPG: 28 / Usage Rate: 24.2)
Trevor Ariza (FD: $6000, DK: $5500 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 16.8)
Corey Brewer (FD: $4800, DK: $4500 / MPG: 26 / Usage Rate: 20.9)
San Antonio at L.A. Clippers – 10:30 PM ET
- Vegas Line – L.A. Clippers -2, 205 Over/Under
- San Antonio Proj. Starters – Parker-Green-Leonard-Duncan-Splitter
- L.A. Clippers Proj. Starters – Paul-Redick-Barnes-Griffin-Jordan
| San Antonio | L.A. Clippers | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 205 |  | Vegas Total | 205 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 2.0 | Vegas Sprd | -2.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 101.5 | Team Proj. | 103.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.67 | Team Pace | 95.67 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Tony Parker | Danny Green | Kawhi Leonard | Tim Duncan | Tiago Splitter | Proj Starter | Chris Paul | J.J. Redick | Matt Barnes | Blake Griffin | DeAndre Jordan | |
| Opp. Season | 2 | 15 | 29 | 17 | 8 | Opp. Season | 11 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 12 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | Opp. Last 7 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 8 | ||||||
San Antonio
Have we entered an alternate universe where the Spurs lose playoff games at home? After taking Game 2 in Los Angeles, I figured the Spurs would go home and take Games 3 and 4 fairly easily. The Clippers had other plans though, as they tied the series up at two games apiece. The Spurs are listed as 2-point underdogs tonight in Game 5. This is expected to be a close, high-scoring game which is what we love to see from a daily fantasy basketball perspective.
Opponent Breakdown (L.A. Clippers)
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.1 (Rank: 16)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 15
Rebounding Differential Rank: 16
Elite Plays
Kawhi Leonard (FD: $8600, DK: $8900 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 23)
Leonard is good. I mean, really good. He does everything well on the floor, which includes having to defend the Spurs opponent’s best player. In his last three games of the series, Leonard has averaged 43.5 fantasy points in 36 minutes per contest. With small forward being such a thin position tonight, I’m willing to pay a premium for Leonard, as he is head, shoulders, knees, and toes above the other options at the position.
Tim Duncan (FD: $8300, DK: $8300 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 22.4)
When I woke up this morning, I was excited to see Duncan’s price tag set at $8,300 on both FanDuel and DraftKings. His ownership level would have been incredibly high if he was still priced around $7,500. He has scored at least 50 fantasy points in two of his last three games and he saw 38 minutes of action in Game 4. Don’t let the expensive price tag scare you off of Duncan tonight in a pivotal Game 5.
Boris Diaw (FD: $5000, DK: $5100 / MPG: 24 / Usage Rate: 18.1)
Diaw was born to play for the Spurs. He is fundamentally sound and while it’s not pretty at times, he gets the job done. He has been very productive in this series, averaging 28 fantasy points in 30 minutes per game. He technically doesn’t start, but he will see the majority of the center minutes tonight in Game 5. He’s a much-needed source of value in this two-game slate.
Secondary Plays
Manu Ginobili (FD: $4100, DK: $4700 / MPG: 23 / Usage Rate: 23.6)
L.A. Clippers
The Clippers picked up a huge win in Game 4 against the Spurs and now have the tough task of having to beat them two times in a row. Vegas has the Clippers installed as 2-point favorites with their team total set at 205 points. The biggest issue with the Clippers is how expensive they are individually. Chris Paul, DeAndre Jordan, and Blake Griffin are all expensive fantasy options, which makes it tough to roster more than one Clippers’ player each night.
Opponent Breakdown (San Antonio)
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.9 (Rank: 3)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 3
Rebounding Differential Rank: 9
Elite Plays
Chris Paul (FD: $10900, DK: $9800 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 23.6)
After being held in check in Game 3, Paul predictably bounced back in a big way in Game 4. He finished the game with 34 points, 3 rebounds, and 7 assists. He is going to have to deal with the pesky defense of Kawhi Leonard at times, but this is Chris Paul that we are talking about. He is going to find a way to get it done. He is the premier play at point guard tonight in a Game 5 against the Spurs.
Blake Griffin (FD: $10400, DK: $10000 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 28.1)
The Spurs don’t have anyone on their roster that can match up against Blake Griffin. When Tim Duncan and Boris Diaw are seeing the majority of the frontcourt minutes, you know Griffin is going to have an advantage down low. He has scored at least 54 fantasy points in three of the first four games in this series and he has a great chance to reach that mark again tonight.
Secondary Plays
DeAndre Jordan (FD: $9200, DK: $8000 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 13.4)