NBA Grind Down: Tuesday, January 27th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!
Note: Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review.
Toronto at Indiana – 7:00 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Toronto -3.5, 194 Over/Under
- Toronto Proj. Starters – Lowry-Vasquez-DeRozan-Johnson-Valanciunas
- Indiana Proj. Starters – Watson-Stuckey-Hill-West-Hibbert
| Toronto | Indiana | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 194 |  | Vegas Total | 194 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -3.5 | Vegas Sprd | 3.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 98.8 | Team Proj. | 95.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.89 | Team Pace | 95.69 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Kyle Lowry | Greivis Vasquez | DeMar DeRozan | Amir Johnson | Jonas Valanciunas | Proj Starter | C.J. Watson | Rodney Stuckey | Solomon Hill | David West | Roy Hibbert | |
| Opp. Season | 17 | 27 | 5 | 1 | 10 | Opp. Season | 19 | 8 | 21 | 7 | 13 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 16 | 9 | 22 | 2 | 19 | Opp. Last 7 | 17 | 13 | 2 | 17 | 23 | |
Toronto
The Raptors head to Indiana to take on the Pacers in what is expected to be a fairly low scoring game. The total is set at 195 points, which is the second lowest total on Tuesday. Indiana is not only one of the slowest-paced teams in the NBA, but they are also ranked in the top ten in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. As you can tell from the Defense vs. Position chart above, this isn’t the most favorable matchup.
Opponent Breakdown (Indiana)
Record: 16-30
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.1 (Rank: 4)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 10
Rebounding Differential Rank: 6
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
DeMar DeRozan (FD: $6800, DK: $6500 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 27.9)
DeRozan finally broke out of his slump the other night, posting 42 fantasy points against the Pistons. His price is at it’s lowest point of the season, which gives us an opportunity to buy low on the prolific scorer. His matchup against the Pacers isn’t ideal, but he’ll likely play some time at shooting guard as well. At his price point, he only needs to score 33-34 fantasy points to meet value expectations.
Indiana
The Pacers will be without C.J. Miles tonight, as he is dealing with a groin injury. Rodney Stuckey will start at shooting guard and will see a small fantasy boost in his absence. Tonight’s matchup against the Raptors is a suitable one. On the season, the Raptors are ranked 20th in both points allowed per game and defensive efficiency. The main problem with the Pacers is their depth. All five starters average around 30 minutes per game or less this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Toronto)
Record: 29-15
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.8 (Rank: 20)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 20
Rebounding Differential Rank: 17
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
David West (FD: $6500, DK: $6200 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 22.5)
West is a safe cash game play tonight against the Raptors. He’s a fairly matchup-proof power forward as he has the unique ability to fill up all areas of the stat sheet. He has also been playing well recently, averaging 30 fantasy points per game over his last eight outings. West’s price is appealing across the industry, especially on DraftKings ($6,200).
Cleveland at Detroit – 7:30 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Cleveland -7.5, 204 Over/Under
- Cleveland Proj. Starters – Irving-Smith-James-Love-Mozgov
- Detroit Proj. Starters – Augustin-Caldwell-Pope-Singler-Monroe-Drummond
| Cleveland | Detroit | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 204 |  | Vegas Total | 204 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -7.5 | Vegas Sprd | 7.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 105.8 | Team Proj. | 98.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 94.70 | Team Pace | 96.10 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Kyrie Irving | J.R. Smith | LeBron James | Kevin Love | Timofey Mozgov | Proj Starter | D.J. Augustin | Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | Kyle Singler | Greg Monroe | Andre Drummond | |
| Opp. Season | 5 | 15 | 23 | 28 | 24 | Opp. Season | 14 | 24 | 30 | 18 | 12 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 25 | 26 | 10 | 8 | 30 | Opp. Last 7 | 9 | 7 | 30 | 3 | 22 | |
Cleveland
LeBron James has put the Cavaliers on his back and he’s carried them to their sixth win in a row. They will look to add to the winning streak tonight against the Pistons in Detroit. Vegas has the Cavaliers listed as 7.5-point favorites in a game that features a total of 204 points. The Pistons are an average matchup at best. They are ranked 15th in defensive efficiency and 11th in rebounding differential this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Detroit)
Record: 17-28
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.2 (Rank: 19)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 15
Rebounding Differential Rank: 11
Elite Plays
LeBron James (FD: $11000, DK: $10700 / MPG: 37 / Usage Rate: 31.8)
During the six-game winning streak, LeBron has averaged 30 points, 7 rebounds, and 7 assists per game. His price across the industry has come up a bit, but there are enough value plays that it’s not too difficult to fit him in your lineups. He draws a favorable matchup against Kyle Singler and the Pistons, who have allowed the 8th most fantasy points to opposing small forwards this season. We can expect another big fantasy outing from the king.
Secondary Plays
J.R. Smith (FD: $6000, DK: $5000 / MPG: 28 / Usage Rate: 22.2)
There is some concern that Iman Shumpert is going to cut into J.R. Smith’s minutes, but he has only played a combined 24 minutes in his first two games with the team. The Cavaliers are also likely to stick with the rotation that has won six games in a row. At least for now, Smith can be expected to see his usual complement of minutes. He has averaged 28 fantasy points per game over his last seven and is still rather cheap on DraftKings ($5,000).
Timofey Mozgov (FD: $5100, DK: $5100 / MPG: 26 / Usage Rate: 15.3)
Mozgov is a tough player to predict, making him a risky cash game option. He does have a high ceiling though, which puts him in play for GPPs. He has scored at least 32 fantasy points in three of his last eight games and he draws a favorable matchup against the Pistons.
Detroit
The Pistons have lost two games in a row, but they are still only two games out of the 8th seed in the East. The bad news is that Brandon Jennings is out for the season, after having surgery on his torn Achilles. D.J. Augustin will man the point, while Greg Monroe may see a small increase in usage. Tonight’s matchup against the Cavaliers is a decent one. The Cavaliers are ranked 26th in defensive efficiency this season, allowing their opponents to score an average of 100 points per game.
Opponent Breakdown (Cleveland)
Record: 25-20
Points Allowed Per Game: 100 (Rank: 17)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 26
Rebounding Differential Rank: 11
Elite Plays
Greg Monroe (FD: $8600, DK: $8500 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 23.6)
With Brandon Jennings out, Monroe now has the highest usage rate of any of the five starters. While Augustin is a very capable scorer, he’s more of a pass-first point guard than Brandon Jennings. Don’t be surprised if Monroe’s usage goes up with Augusitn in the lineup. Monroe has scored at least 36 fantasy points in eight of his last ten games and he draws a favorable matchup against Kevin Love.
D.J. Augustin (FD: $6000, DK: $5800 / MPG: 22 / Usage Rate: 21.9)
Augustin played extremely well in his first start as the team’s main point guard. He finished the game with 35 points, 4 rebounds, and 8 assists. Luckily, his price has gone way up on both FanDuel and DraftKings so his percentage of ownership won’t be through the roof. Augustin has been very productive when given the chance and is still a starting point guard that is priced around $6,000. He deserves the elite play tag tonight against Kyrie Irving and the Cavaliers.
Secondary Plays
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (FD: $4700, DK: $4100 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 17.8)
Caldwell-Pope played 42 minutes the other night against the Raptors. He has now played at least 35 minutes in four of his last five games. It’s hard to find another player that is cheaper on a $/minute basis. He doesn’t have a ton of upside, but he does have a high floor for a player at his price point.
Milwaukee at Miami – 7:30 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Miami -4, 183 Over/Under
- Milwaukee Proj. Starters – Knight-Middleton-Antetokounmpo-Ilyasova-Pachulia
- Miami Proj. Starters – Chalmers-Wade-Granger-Bosh-Whiteside
| Milwaukee | Miami | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 183 |  | Vegas Total | 183 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 4.0 | Vegas Sprd | -4.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 89.5 | Team Proj. | 93.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.30 | Team Pace | 91.73 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Brandon Knight | Khris Middleton | Giannis Antetokounmpo | Ersan Ilyasova | Zaza Pachulia | Proj Starter | Mario Chalmers | Dwyane Wade | Danny Granger | Chris Bosh | Hassan Whiteside | |
| Opp. Season | 12 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 9 | Opp. Season | 1 | 10 | 28 | 14 | 16 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 13 | 1 | 20 | 13 | 7 | Opp. Last 7 | 3 | 17 | 18 | 16 | 20 | |
Milwaukee
The Bucks head to Miami to take on the slowest-paced team in the NBA. The Heat also lead the NBA in points allowed per game at only 96.2. Basically, this is the worst possible matchup for potential fantasy production. The total for the game is set at only 183 points, which is 12 points less than the next lowest total. When you throw in Jason Kidd’s inconsistent rotations, the Bucks are an easy team to avoid tonight.
Opponent Breakdown (Miami)
Record: 20-24
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.2 (Rank: 1)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 21
Rebounding Differential Rank: 27
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Giannis Antetokounmpo (FD: $5800, DK: $5200 / MPG: 28 / Usage Rate: 19.8)
The one player that does deserve consideration tonight is the Greek Alphabet. Consistency is still an issue, but he has shown that he is capable of posting 40 fantasy point outings. His price across the industry is depressed and the Heat will be without their best wing defender in Luol Deng.
Miami
The Heat will be without Luol Deng tonight, as he is dealing with a sore calf. The Heat may also be without Chris Andersen. He is listed as questionable with a couple of nagging injuries. The Heat are 4-point favorites tonight against the Bucks, but again, this is expected to be the lowest-scoring game of the night. The Bucks are ranked 2nd in defensive efficiency and 3rd in points allowed per game this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Milwaukee)
Record: 22-22
Points Allowed Per Game: 97 (Rank: 3)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 2
Rebounding Differential Rank: 20
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Hassan Whiteside (FD: $6000, DK: $5800 / MPG: 16 / Usage Rate: 20)
Whiteside is coming off of an amazing game against the Bulls. He posted a triple-double in only 25 minutes of action off the bench. He finished the game with 14 points, 13 rebounds, and 12 blocks. What was even more impressive was his quote after the game. He said that he was “trying to get my NBA2k rating up.” He should see a nice fantasy boost if Chris Andersen is unable to suit up, as he will likely start at center in his absence.
Memphis at Dallas – 8:30 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Dallas -4.5, 201 Over/Under
- Memphis Proj. Starters – Conley-Lee-Green-Randolph-Gasol
- Dallas Proj. Starters – Rondo-Ellis-Parsons-Nowitzki-Chandler
| Memphis | Dallas | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 201 |  | Vegas Total | 201 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 4.5 | Vegas Sprd | -4.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 98.3 | Team Proj. | 102.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 94.22 | Team Pace | 96.79 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Mike Conley | Courtney Lee | Jeff Green | Zach Randolph | Marc Gasol | Proj Starter | Rajon Rondo | Monta Ellis | Chandler Parsons | Dirk Nowitzki | Tyson Chandler | |
| Opp. Season | 25 | 6 | 22 | 11 | 11 | Opp. Season | 3 | 17 | 18 | 6 | 1 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 1 | 14 | 19 | 28 | 2 | Opp. Last 7 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 14 | |
Memphis
The Grizzlies picked up a win over the Magic last night, but it didn’t come without a price. Mike Conley injured his wrist and is currently listed as questionable for tonight’s game against the Mavericks. On paper, this is one of the more favorable matchups in tonight’s slate of games. The Mavericks play at a quick pace and are ranked 13th in defensive efficiency this season, allowing opponents to score an average of 101.8 points per game. The Mavericks are also ranked 28th in rebounding differential, which could be a deciding factor in this one.
Opponent Breakdown (Dallas)
Record: 30-15
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.8 (Rank: 23)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 13
Rebounding Differential Rank: 28
Elite Plays
If Mike Conley is ruled out, Beno Udrih would immediately become one of the top value plays on the board.
Secondary Plays
Marc Gasol (FD: $8600, DK: $8400 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 25.1)
Gasol is one of the most consistent players in the NBA. He has scored at least 34 fantasy points in each of his last six games. He has a very high usage rate for a center (25.1) and he has the ability to fill up all areas of the stat sheet. He has a great chance to post another double-double tonight, as the Mavericks are ranked 28th in rebounding differential this season.
Zach Randolph (FD: $8500, DK: $8100 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 23.8)
Speaking of double-doubles, Randolph has posted nine straight. During that stretch, he has averaged 19 points, 13 rebounds, and 3 assists per game. His jump shot has also been falling recently, which makes him an extremely difficult cover on defense. The Grizzlies will look to exploit his matchup against the less physical Dirk Nowitzki.
Jeff Green (FD: $5300, DK: $5000 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 23.6)
Mike Conley and Tony Allen are both questionable for tonight’s game. Green could see a small boost in minutes and/or usage if one or both are forced to sit out. Green has scored at least 25 fantasy points in three of his last five games and he draws a nice matchup against the Mavericks, who are ranked 22nd against small forwards this season.
Dallas
The Mavericks are such a difficult team to predict on a nightly basis. They have five starters that are all capable of posting productive fantasy outings. They are a well-balanced offense that draws a tough matchup against the Grizzlies, who play at a slow pace and are ranked 6th in points allowed per game this season. One injury situation to monitor is Tyson Chandler. He was able to return from a knee injury the other night, but sometimes injuries can swell up overnight. If he is forced to sit, Dwight Powell would likely be the biggest beneficiary.
Opponent Breakdown (Memphis)
Record: 32-12
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.3 (Rank: 6)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 11
Rebounding Differential Rank: 16
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Dirk Nowitzki (FD: $7100, DK: $6400 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 26.6)
Nowitzki rarely has a bad fantasy outing. He has scored at least 25 fantasy points in each of his last ten games and has averaged 31 per game during that stretch. The last time he faced the Grizzlies, he scored 21 points and grabbed 6 rebounds. He’s a tough cover for a guy like Zach Randolph that typically likes to bang with guys down low, rather than defend them on the perimeter.
Chicago at Golden State – 10:30 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Golden State -9.5, 210.5 Over/Under
- Chicago Proj. Starters – Rose-Butler-Snell-Gasol-Noah
- Golden State Proj. Starters – Curry-Thompson-Barnes-Green-Bogut
| Chicago | Golden State | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 210.5 |  | Vegas Total | 210.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 9.5 | Vegas Sprd | -9.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 100.5 | Team Proj. | 110.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.71 | Team Pace | 101.25 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Derrick Rose | Jimmy Butler | Tony Snell | Pau Gasol | Joakim Noah | Proj Starter | Stephen Curry | Klay Thompson | Harrison Barnes | Draymond Green | Andrew Bogut | |
| Opp. Season | 13 | 11 | 8 | 16 | 20 | Opp. Season | 15 | 7 | 24 | 24 | 17 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 7 | 22 | 15 | 9 | 27 | Opp. Last 7 | 6 | 12 | 12 | 5 | 28 | |
Chicago
The Bulls have lost six of their last ten games and will have their hands full with the Warriors tonight. The Warriors own the NBA’s best home record at 21-1. Vegas has the Bulls listed as 9.5-point underdogs. This is expected to be a fast-paced game though and the Bulls are projected to score 100.5 points, which is close to their season average.
Editor’s Note: Jimmy Butler (illness) is considered questionable for tonight’s game.
Opponent Breakdown (Golden State)
Record: 36-6
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.3 (Rank: 16)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 1
Rebounding Differential Rank: 15
Elite Plays
Derrick Rose (FD: $7000, DK: $7200 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 31)
Rose is a frustrating player to watch. When he is aggressive and attacking the basket, he looks like one of the best point guards in the NBA. But then he goes through stretches where he settles for jumpers and fails to do much of anything on the floor. The good news is that his points scored in the paint have gone up over the last two weeks. He has averaged 35 fantasy points per game over his last eight and I’m tentatively listing him as an elite option at point guard tonight against the Warriors.
Secondary Plays
Pau Gasol (FD: $9200, DK: $9200 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 24.1)
Draymond Green is an excellent defender, but Gasol is one of those long, rangy guys that are tough to defend. He has plenty of moves in the post, he can knock down open jumpers, and he’s very good at drawing fouls. Gasol has scored at least 37 fantasy points in seven of his last nine games and he has posted eight double-doubles during that stretch.
Golden State
The Warriors have won five games in a row and nine of their last ten. They are absolutely dominant at home, which is why they are close to double-digit favorites tonight, even though they are facing a very capable Bulls’ team. On paper, this is an average matchup at best. The Bulls play at a fairly slow pace and are ranked 12th in defensive efficiency. They are also a great rebounding team, ranking 5th in differential this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Chicago)
Record: 29-17
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.2 (Rank: 14)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 12
Rebounding Differential Rank: 5
Elite Plays
Andrew Bogut (FD: $5800, DK: $4700 / MPG: 24 / Usage Rate: 14.2)
Bogut is not an elite play on FanDuel ($5,800), but he is on DraftKings ($4,700). At his price point, he only needs to score 23.5 fantasy points to meet value expectations. He is certainly capable of that feat, as he is averaging 26.4 fantasy points per game this season. The Bulls have one of the biggest frontcourts in the NBA and Bogut should see 25+ minutes of action in this one.
Secondary Plays
Stephen Curry (FD: $9800, DK: $10000 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 27.6)
Curry is often one of my favorite tournament plays, because he is often overlooked when his matchup isn’t ideal. He has 60 fantasy point upside every time that he takes the floor and I don’t mind the matchup against Derrick Rose. He may be a bit too expensive to use in cash games, but provides great upside as a contrarian GPP play.