NBA Grind Down: Tuesday, March 31st
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!
Note: Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NBA Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review.
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Atlanta at Detroit – 7:30 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Detroit -4.5, 196.5 Over/Under
- Atlanta Proj. Starters – Teague-Korver-Carroll-Millsap-Horford
- Detroit Proj. Starters – Jackson-Caldwell-Pope-Butler-Tolliver-Drummond
| Atlanta | Detroit | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 196.5 |  | Vegas Total | 196.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 4.5 | Vegas Sprd | -4.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 96.0 | Team Proj. | 100.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.29 | Team Pace | 95.41 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Jeff Teague | Kyle Korver | DeMarre Carroll | Paul Millsap | Al Horford | Proj Starter | Reggie Jackson | Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | Caron Butler | Anthony Tolliver | Andre Drummond | |
| Opp. Season | 4 | 14 | 16 | 29 | 29 | Opp. Season | 13 | 17 | 13 | 17 | 9 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 9 | 17 | 19 | 16 | 23 | Opp. Last 7 | 7 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 3 | |
Atlanta
Editor’s Note: The Hawks will have their regular starting five out there for tonight’s game.
The Hawks played all five starters last night against the Bucks and it sounds like they could pull a “San Antonio” and rest a few guys tonight. If they decide to rest players, they will be short-handed, as Dennis Schroder has already been ruled out of this game with a toe injury. This game is tough to break down until we know who will actually be in the lineup, but in terms of their matchup against the Pistons, this is a favorable one. The Pistons have been in quite a few shootouts recently and are ranked 21st in defensive efficiency this season. Any player that is active and starting for the Hawks will be in play tonight.
Opponent Breakdown (Detroit)
Record: 28-45
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.7 (Rank: 15)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 21
Rebounding Differential Rank: 11
Elite Plays
TBD
Secondary Plays
TBD
Detroit
The Pistons are technically still fighting for a playoff spot in the Eastern Conference, but the odds are waning. They are listed as 4.5-point favorites against the Hawks, who may be playing without some of their key players. The Hawks are a solid team defensively, but may struggle to defend the Pistons if their starters are rested. Detroit is projected to score 100.5 points, which is considerably higher than their average on the season.
Opponent Breakdown (Atlanta)
Record: 56-18
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.1 (Rank: 4)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 8
Rebounding Differential Rank: 27
Elite Plays
Reggie Jackson (FanDuel: $8600, DraftKings: $8700 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 24.3)
Jackson has been on an absolute tear recently. He has channeled his inner-Westbrook in his last seven games, averaging 22 points, 7 rebounds, and 11 assists per game. Jackson has scored at least 42 fantasy points in five straight games. He should be able to keep it going tonight against a Hawks’ team that could potentially be without both Jeff Teague and Dennis Schroder.
Secondary Plays
Andre Drummond (FD: $9400, DK: $8900 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 21.6)
Like Jackson, Drummond is also playing his best basketball of the season. In his last seven games, he has averaged 18 points, 15 rebounds, and 2 blocks per contest. During that stretch, he has topped the 50 fantasy point mark four times. Drummond is in play either way, but he would see a sizable fantasy boost if the Hawks decide to rest Al Horford.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (FD: $5300, DK: $5900 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 19.2)
Caldwell-Pope has played well in his last seven games, averaging 28 fantasy points in 39 minutes per contest. He struggled against the Heat in his last outing, but he still played 41 minutes in that game. He is a solid option at shooting guard tonight, especially with the game being played in Detroit. He has averaged six more fantasy points per game at home than he has on the road this season.
Indiana at Brooklyn – 7:30 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Brooklyn -2.5, 198 Over/Under
- Indiana Proj. Starters – Hill-Miles-Hill-West-Hibbert
- Brooklyn Proj. Starters – Williams-Brown-Johnson-Plumlee-Lopez
| Indiana | Brooklyn | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 198 |  | Vegas Total | 198 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 2.5 | Vegas Sprd | -2.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 97.8 | Team Proj. | 100.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.67 | Team Pace | 94.98 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | George Hill | C.J. Miles | Solomon Hill | David West | Roy Hibbert | Proj Starter | Deron Williams | Markel Brown | Joe Johnson | Mason Plumlee | Brook Lopez | |
| Opp. Season | 11 | 26 | 12 | 28 | 20 | Opp. Season | 15 | 23 | 5 | 2 | 7 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 11 | 15 | 30 | 19 | 14 | Opp. Last 7 | 17 | 25 | 7 | 10 | 7 | |
Indiana
This is a game that could have huge playoff implications in the Eastern Conference. Both of these teams are fighting for their playoff lives and both are within a game of the Celtics for the eighth and final playoff spot. The Pacers are 2.5-point underdogs in a game that features a surprisingly high total of 198 points. The Nets have played at a much quicker pace over the last month of play and it has shown in their numbers defensively. They are now ranked 19th in points allowed per game and 26th in rebounding differential this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Brooklyn)
Record: 32-40
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.6 (Rank: 19)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 22
Rebounding Differential Rank: 26
Elite Plays
George Hill (FD: $7400, DK: $7500 / MPG: 28 / Usage Rate: 25.5)
I can’t quite put my finger on why, but Hill continues to fly under the radar. Maybe it’s the fact that he plays for the Pacers, who are one of the least entertaining teams to watch. Either way, he makes a strong play tonight against Deron Williams and the Nets. Hill has averaged 38 fantasy points per game over his last five outings and he is still priced fairly across the industry.
Secondary Plays
C.J. Miles (FD: $4600, DK: $5200 / MPG: 26 / Usage Rate: 23.1)
Most DFS players will avoid Miles now that Rodney Stuckey is back in the lineup, but Miles deserves consideration tonight, especially on FanDuel ($4,600). He has scored 31 and 33 fantasy points in his last two games and should push for 30+ minutes tonight against the Nets, who are ranked 26th against shooting guards this season.
Brooklyn
Right when it started to look like the Nets were already planning their offseason vacations, they have made a push and are now right back in the playoff picture. They have won seven of their last ten games and would move ahead of the Celtics with a win over the Pacers tonight. The Pacers are a difficult fantasy matchup for most teams (5th in points allowed per game), but the Nets are still projected to score over 100 points tonight.
Opponent Breakdown (Indiana)
Record: 32-41
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.3 (Rank: 5)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 11
Rebounding Differential Rank: 7
Elite Plays
Brook Lopez (FD: $8200, DK: $7800 / MPG: 28 / Usage Rate: 26.7)
As crazy as it sounds, Reggie Jackson and Brook Lopez have arguably been the best two players in the Eastern Conference over the last two weeks. In his last six games, Lopez has averaged 47 fantasy points per contest. He does draw a tough matchup against the Pacers, but Lopez may have a quickness advantage over Roy Hibbert. We don’t get to say that Lopez has a quickness advantage very often.
Secondary Plays
Joe Johnson (FD: $5600, DK: $5800 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 21)
Johnson is one of those players that baffles me. When you watch him play, he can take over offensively in one quarter and then absolutely disappear the next. The good news is that he has scored 39 and 41 fantasy points in his last two games. Hopefully he will stay aggressive tonight against the Pacers.
San Antonio at Miami – 8:00 PM EST
- Vegas Line – San Antonio -7, 197.5 Over/Under
- San Antonio Proj. Starters – Parker-Green-Leonard-Duncan-Splitter
- Miami Proj. Starters – Dragic-Wade-Deng-Walker-Haslem
| San Antonio | Miami | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 197.5 |  | Vegas Total | 197.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -7.0 | Vegas Sprd | 7.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 102.3 | Team Proj. | 95.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.88 | Team Pace | 93.14 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Tony Parker | Danny Green | Kawhi Leonard | Tim Duncan | Tiago Splitter | Proj Starter | Goran Dragic | Dwyane Wade | Luol Deng | Henry Walker | Udonis Haslem | |
| Opp. Season | 9 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 13 | Opp. Season | 10 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 12 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 20 | 26 | Opp. Last 7 | 3 | 21 | 2 | 27 | 6 | |
San Antonio
The Spurs have won seven of their last ten games, as they slowly make their way up the Western Conference Standings. They are now only one game behind the Blazers for the fourth-seed in the West. Home-court advantage doesn’t mean as much to the Spurs, as it does to most teams, but it is still a huge advantage in the tough Western Conference. The Spurs are listed as 7-point favorites tonight against the Heat. This is a fairly difficult matchup for fantasy production, as the Heat play at a very slow pace and are ranked 3rd in points allowed per game this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Miami)
Record: 34-39
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.8 (Rank: 3)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 19
Rebounding Differential Rank: 23
Elite Plays
Kawhi Leonard (FD: $8200, DK: $8100 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 22.8)
Leonard has been my go-to option at small forward over the last few weeks. In his last ten games, he has averaged 35.4 fantasy points per game. During that stretch, he has topped the 35 fantasy point mark six times. He is about as matchup-proof of a player as you will find and he should push for 35 minutes tonight against the Heat.
Secondary Plays
Tim Duncan (FD: $7300, DK: $6700 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 22.4)
If Hassan Whiteside and Chris Andersen are both out tonight, Duncan will match up against Henry Walker. A 50-year old Duncan could post a double-double against Henry Walker. Duncan’s price is depressed across the industry and he has scored at least 32 fantasy points in six of his last ten games.
Tiago Splitter (FD: $5000, DK: $4500 / MPG: 20 / Usage Rate: 18.1)
Splitter is in the same boat as Tim Duncan. Depending on injuries, he may be able to feast upon a depleted frontcourt of the Heat. Splitter is playing his best basketball of the season, averaging 26 fantasy points per game in his last eight. His salary is only going to go up from where it’s at right now.
Miami
Editor’s Note: Luol Deng and Udonis Haslem are out for tonight’s game.
Luol Deng, Hassan Whiteside, Michael Beasley, and Chris Andersen are all questionable for tonight’s game against the Spurs. All four players have an impact on the game, so their availability will change the fantasy outlook for the Heat. On paper, this is a very tough matchup. The Spurs are ranked 10th or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Heat are only projected to score 95 points tonight, which is the lowest team total on the board.
Opponent Breakdown (San Antonio)
Record: 47-26
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.4 (Rank: 6)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 3
Rebounding Differential Rank: 10
Elite Plays
Dwyane Wade (FD: $7800, DK: $7600 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 34.4)
If the Heat had a playoff spot locked up, they would likely rest Wade tonight. They can’t afford to do that though, as they are still fighting for one of the final two playoff spots in the Eastern Conference. If we throw out his dud against the Hawks, Wade has averaged 38 fantasy points per game over his last eight. He draws a tough matchup against the Spurs, but the Heat will need another big outing from him tonight.
Secondary Plays
Depending on the availability of Luol Deng, Hassan Whiteside, and Chris Andersen, Udonis Haslem (FD: $5100, DK: $4400) and Henry Walker (FD: $4200, DK: $4100) could both make excellent value plays at their respective positions.
Golden State at L.A. Clippers – 10:30 PMEST
- Vegas Line – L.A. Clippers -2, 214 Over/Under
- Golden State Proj. Starters – Curry-Thompson-Barnes-Green-Bogut
- L.A. Clippers Proj. Starters – Paul-Redick-Barnes-Griffin-Jordan
| Golden State | L.A. Clippers | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 214 |  | Vegas Total | 214 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 2.0 | Vegas Sprd | -2.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 106.0 | Team Proj. | 108.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 100.58 | Team Pace | 97.01 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Stephen Curry | Klay Thompson | Harrison Barnes | Draymond Green | Andrew Bogut | Proj Starter | Chris Paul | J.J. Redick | Matt Barnes | Blake Griffin | DeAndre Jordan | |
| Opp. Season | 2 | 16 | 26 | 14 | 15 | Opp. Season | 6 | 6 | 9 | 18 | 17 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 4 | 2 | 18 | 4 | 25 | Opp. Last 7 | 19 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 4 | |
Golden State
The Warriors have won nine games in a row and have clinched home-court advantage throughout the Western Conference playoffs. That would typically be a concern, but I expect the Warriors to do everything in their power to win tonight, as there is little love lost between these two teams. The Warriors are 2-point underdogs tonight in a game that features a total of 214 points. This game is expected to be the highest scoring game of the night and it could be a fantasy goldmine.
Opponent Breakdown (L.A. Clippers)
Record: 49-25
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.3 (Rank: 17)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 17
Rebounding Differential Rank: 16
Elite Plays
Editor’s Note: Draymond Green (rest) has been ruled out for tonight. David Lee will start in his place.
Draymond Green (FD: $7300, DK: $7500 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 17.2)
Green loves HATES Blake Griffin and the Clippers. He broke the world record for the longest nah-nah-nah-nah sticking your tongue out moment in an NBA game. He also said that he was going to miss tonight’s game with a case of Blake-itis. Green should be fired up for tonight’s contest and a fired up Green is a productive one. He’s one of my favorite plays on the board tonight.
Klay Thompson (FD: $7000, DK: $7100 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 27.4)
Thompson appears to be off his minutes-restriction, as he played 34 minutes and scored 37 fantasy points against the Bucks in his last game. Thompson’s price is depressed and he draws a favorable matchup against J.J. Redick and the Clippers. Even if the Clippers put Matt Barnes on him, it won’t make much of a difference. A lot of this game should be played in transition and I expect Thompson to get plenty of open looks.
Secondary Plays
Stephen Curry (FD: $10100, DK: $9300 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 28.4)
Chris Paul is one of the best on-ball defenders in the NBA. He seems to take it personally when his opponent scores against him. While I love watching Curry, I see him as a secondary option tonight against the Clippers. In three meetings against the Clippers this season, Curry is only averaging 18 points, 5 rebounds, and 6 assists per contest. I’m giving Paul the slight edge over Curry tonight.
L.A. Clippers
The Clippers have the second-longest winning streak in the NBA (behind the Warriors) at seven games. The Clippers are making a push for home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs. They are small favorites at home tonight against the Warriors, who are the fastest-paced team in the NBA this season. The Warriors are ranked first in defensive efficiency, but their pace of play helps negate that. The Clippers are projected to score 108 points tonight, which is the highest team total on the board.
Elite Plays
Chris Paul (FD: $10400, DK: $9600 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 23.6)
Paul has been terrific over his last six games, averaging 48 fantasy points in 34 minutes per contest. He should see upwards of 40 minutes tonight against the Warriors in what is expected to be a very high-scoring game. In his three meetings against the Warriors this season, he has averaged 17 points, 5 rebounds, 10 assists, and 3 steals per game. I expect an even better outing from him tonight.
Blake Griffin (FD: $8800, DK: $8600 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 28.1)
The feeling between Draymond Green and Blake Griffin is mutual. Griffin would love nothing more than to drop 50 on Green and the Warriors. Griffin did hurt his elbow on Sunday, but he’s expected to be in the lineup tonight. His price across the industry is depressed and you want to have as many shares of Griffin as possible tonight.
Secondary Plays
DeAndre Jordan (FD: $9200, DK: $8400), J.J. Redick (FD: $6500, DK: $6500), and Matt Barnes (FD: $5300, DK: $5200) are all viable secondary options against the Warriors in what should be the highest scoring game of the night.