NBA Grind Down: Tuesday, May 12th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!
Note: Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NBA Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review.
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Chicago at Cleveland – 7:00 PM ET
- Vegas Line – Cleveland -5.5, 191 Over/Under
- Chicago Proj. Starters – Rose-Butler-Dunleavy-Gasol-Noah
- Cleveland Proj. Starters – Irving-Shumpert-James-Thompson-Mozgov
| Chicago | Cleveland | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 191 |  | Vegas Total | 191 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 5.5 | Vegas Sprd | -5.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 92.8 | Team Proj. | 98.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 94.23 | Team Pace | 93.90 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Derrick Rose | Jimmy Butler | Mike Dunleavy | Pau Gasol | Joakim Noah | Proj Starter | Kyrie Irving | Iman Shumpert | LeBron James | Tristan Thompson | Timofey Mozgov | |
| Opp. Season | 10 | 20 | 19 | 9 | 11 | Opp. Season | 22 | 2 | 27 | 8 | 8 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 2 | Opp. Last 7 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 4 | |
Chicago
LeBron James said, whatever you can do, I can do better. He hit a buzzer-beater in Game 4 to tie the series up at two games apiece. The series now shifts back to Cleveland for a pivotal Game 5. Pau Gasol is listed as a game-time decision for tonight’s game. If he is unable to play, Taj Gibson, Joakim Noah, and Nikola Mirotic would all see a boost in his absence.
Opponent Breakdown (Cleveland)
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.5 (Rank: 12)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 20
Rebounding Differential Rank: 8
Elite Plays
Derrick Rose (FanDuel: $8300, DraftKings: $8500 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 30.9)
Rose has played extremely well in this series, scoring at least 37 fantasy points in all four games thus far. He has that explosiveness that we haven’t seen from him in years and it’s been very difficult for Kyrie Irving to stay in front of him. Rose’s price has come up across the industry, but he’s the chalk play at point guard tonight. Chris Paul and Kyrie Irving are both too risky with their injury situations.
Joakim Noah (FD: $5700, DK: $5900 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 13.7)
Noah’s fantasy appeal hinges somewhat on the availability of Pau Gasol. If Gasol sits, Noah would offer terrific value at his price point. He scored 32 fantasy points in 37 minutes of playing time in Game 4 and he’d likely see a similar allotment of minutes tonight if Gasol is out again. Even if Gasol plays, Noah could see extended playing time tonight with if Gasol’s hamstring injury flares up.
Taj Gibson (FD: $4100, DK: $4600) and Nikola Mirotic (FD: $2000, DK: $3900 / MPG: 20 / Usage Rate: 23.1) would immediately become the top two value plays on the board tonight if Pau Gasol were unable to suit up.
Secondary Plays
Jimmy Butler (FD: $8300, DK: $8200 / MPG: 39 / Usage Rate: 21.7)
Mike Dunleavy (FD: $4500, DK: $4800 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 14.3)
Cleveland
The Cavaliers picked up a huge win in Game 4 in Chicago, as they now have home-court advantage back in their favor. The playoffs haven’t been kind to this team health-wise though, as now Kyrie Irving’s knee is bothering him. Despite the injuries, the Cavaliers are still listed as 5.5-point favorites tonight in a game that features a total of 191 points.
Opponent Breakdown (Chicago)
Points Allowed Per Game: 98 (Rank: 10)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 11
Rebounding Differential Rank: 5
Elite Plays
LeBron James (FD: $11600, DK: $11400 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 32.5)
James was a frustrating fantasy option during the regular season, but he has been extremely consistent in the postseason, especially in this second-round matchup against the Bulls. He has scored at least 52 fantasy points in each of the first four games of the series. He flexed his muscles at the end of Game 4 by overruling Blatt’s play call at the end of the game. James should play 40+ minutes in a pivotal Game 5. He’s right there with Blake Griffin as the top overall fantasy option in tonight’s two-game slate.
Iman Shumpert (FD: $4700, DK: $4400 / MPG: 25 / Usage Rate: 17.2)
I have J.R. Smith and Shumpert ranked right next to each other tonight, so I’ll give the edge to Shumpert, as he is slightly cheaper. Shumpert should also remain in the starting lineup, which never hurts. He has averaged 21 fantasy points in 34 minutes per game in this series. He sees a small boost now that the series shifts back to Cleveland, as he has played very well at home in the postseason.
Secondary Plays
Timofey Mozgov (FD: $4800, DK: $5700 / MPG: 26 / Usage Rate: 16.1)
Tristan Thompson (FD: $5400, DK: $5200 / MPG: 27 / Usage Rate: 13.9)
J.R. Smith (FD: $5000, DK: $5000 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 19.1)
L.A. Clippers at Houston – 9:30 PM ET
- Vegas Line – L.A. Clippers -2.5, 219 Over/Under
- L.A. Clippers Proj. Starters – Paul-Redick-Barnes-Griffin-Jordan
- Houston Proj. Starters – Terry-Harden-Ariza-Jones-Howard
| L.A. Clippers | Houston | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 219 |  | Vegas Total | 219 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -2.5 | Vegas Sprd | 2.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 110.8 | Team Proj. | 108.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 99.98 | Team Pace | 105.34 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Chris Paul | J.J. Redick | Matt Barnes | Blake Griffin | DeAndre Jordan | Proj Starter | Jason Terry | James Harden | Trevor Ariza | Terrence Jones | Dwight Howard | |
| Opp. Season | 4 | 23 | 17 | 29 | 24 | Opp. Season | 2 | 18 | 28 | 18 | 12 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 8 | Opp. Last 7 | ||||||
L.A. Clippers
The Clippers have made it look easy in this series, as they took a commanding 3-1 lead in this series with a large margin of victory in Game 4. They now have a chance to close out the Rockets, but they will have to do so in Houston. With their backs against the wall, I expect a much better effort from the Rockets tonight. Of the two games tonight, this one has the better fantasy potential, as the total is 27 points higher than the total for the Bulls/Cavaliers game.
Opponent Breakdown (Houston)
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.6 (Rank: 17)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 6
Rebounding Differential Rank: 15
Elite Plays
Blake Griffin (FD: $11600, DK: $10400 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 28.1)
Griffin is coming off of his two worst fantasy outings of the postseason, but he played limited minutes in both games, as the Clippers made quick work of the Rockets at home. Tonight’s game should be much closer and we can expect to see 40+ minutes from Grififn. He has as much upside as LeBron James (possibly even more) and he’s actually a bit cheaper on DraftKings. The one concern with Griffin is that the Rockets may employ the “Deck-A-DeAndre” strategy again.
J.J. Redick (FD: $5000, DK: $5300 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 20.5)
If you are playing daily fantasy baseball and basketball, you can roster both Redick and Reddick tonight. The Redick with one D is a viable option at shooting guard. He has shown his upside in this series and the Rockets have the highest total of any team on the board. Redick’s minutes have been down the last two games, but again, it’s only because the Clippers have been well ahead heading into the fourth quarter of those games.
Secondary Plays
DeAndre Jordan (FD: $8500, DK: $8000 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 13.4)
Matt Barnes (FD: $4500, DK: $4900 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 14.6)
Austin Rivers (FD: $4200, DK: $4700 / MPG: 21 / Usage Rate: 17.9)
Houston
The Rockets have been out-matched in this series, which is really a surprise given the fact that Chris Paul has been either missing or hobbled in each of the first four games. The Rockets are now facing elimination, down three games to one. With their season on the line, I’m expecting a strong performance from them tonight. Vegas has them listed as small underdogs, but something tells me that they force a Game 6 with a win tonight.
Opponent Breakdown (L.A. Clippers)
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.1 (Rank: 16)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 15
Rebounding Differential Rank: 16
Elite Plays
James Harden (FD: $9900, DK: $9600 / MPG: 37 / Usage Rate: 31.3)
In a must-win situation at home, I expect Harden to have his best game of the series. He needs to take over offensively before it’s too late. He has only topped 50 fantasy points one time so far in the playoffs, but I’m predicting him to get number two tonight in Game 5. Harden’s price has come down across the industry and he should show that he still has some fight left in him. It’s a great night to buy low on the prolific scorer.
Dwight Howard (FD: $9000, DK: $8600 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 23.3)
Howard was outplayed by DeAndre Jordan in Game 4, but he has been the chalk play at center throughout this entire second round. He scored at least 42 fantasy points (topped the 45-fantasy point mark twice) in the first three games of this series. As long as he can stay out of foul trouble, he should get back to the dominant Dwight that we have seen in the playoffs. He could also see 40+ minutes of action, as the Rockets are in a win-or-stay-home situation tonight.
Secondary Plays
Trevor Ariza (FD: $6300, DK: $6100 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 16.8)
Josh Smith (FD: $5800, DK: $5100 / MPG: 28 / Usage Rate: 24.2)
Terrence Jones (FD: $4700, DK: $4300 / MPG: 27 / Usage Rate: 19.2)
Jason Terry (FD: $3300, DK: $4000 / MPG: 21 / Usage Rate: 14.1)